This article is part of our Dynasty Strategy series.
I've had enough time to dig deep into the 2019 rookie class and assemble a tier-based top-100 I feel comfortable with. There's a chance I forgot about someone but I'll add any embarrassing omissions later in that case. There are even a few changes in the top 36 since the one I posted Sunday.
Tier 1
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi* (6-3, 228)
A.J. Brown, WR, Mississippi* (6-1, 226)
N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State* (6-2, 228)
This was my top three going into the combine, and all three guys did well for themselves. I'd generally say Harry helped himself the most of the three, but I also reject the idea that Metcalf's poor agility drills were especially insightful.
Tier 2
Damien Harris, RB, Alabama (5-10, 216)
Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama* (5-10, 220)
Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State (6-0, 205)
Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma* (5-10, 207)
Emanuel Hall, WR, Missouri (6-2, 201)
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford (6-2, 225)
Andy Isabella, WR, Massachusetts (5-9, 188)
Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis* (5-8, 208)
Mecole Hardman, WR, Georgia* (5-10, 187)
Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State* (6-5, 227)
Campbell, Hall, Isabella, Hardman, and Butler enjoyed strong combines, strengthening this tier to a level I didn't foresee beforehand. The running backs and Murray are probably the most established in this tier, with the wide receiver order fluid depending on a wide range of opinions from person to person, and in those arguments I don't feel motivated to take a particular side. There are a lot of valid reasons to have high hopes for all of the receivers named within here.
I'm lower on Butler than most people, but disagreeing with me is totally reasonable. My basic suspicion is that most people are overly susceptible to the optics of Butler's tape and otherwise let the dynasty community's prior high assessment of Butler serve as substitution for study. He's not Randy Moss – just let that go. He's objectively more similar to someone like Marquez Valdes-Scantling; a player plenty promising but one with limited dimensions. Butler is definitely huge and definitely explosive for his build, but unlike with guys like Will Fuller and Emanuel Hall I see a cause for concern in Butler's drop tendencies. His production last year was voluminous but uneven, his excellent YPT average of 11.7 undermined by his 53.1 percent catch rate. That he turned 22 in May cheapens the significance of these numbers further, and it's otherwise worth noting that the Iowa State passing game was plenty functional aside from Butler, as it completed 65.3 percent of its passes at 8.6 yards per pass. Hall is likely around a year younger than Butler yet over the last two years has clearly superior peripherals (63.6 percent catch rate, 15.0 YPT) in the SEC despite Butler's otherwise strong production (54.3 percent catch rate, 10.8 YPT) in the Big 12.
Tier 3
Justice Hill, RB, Oklahoma State* (5-10, 198)
Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma (6-0, 224)
Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma* (5-9, 166)
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa* (6-5, 251)
Dexter Williams, RB, Notre Dame (5-11, 212)
Alex Barnes, RB, Kansas State (6-0, 226)
Miles Boykin, WR, Notre Dame* (6-4, 220)
Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina (5-11, 214)
Miles Sanders, RB, Penn State* (5-11, 211)
Gary Jennings, WR, West Virginia (6-1, 214)
Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor (6-5, 226)
Stanley Morgan, WR, Nebraska (6-0, 202)
Noah Fant, TE, Iowa* (6-4, 249)
Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State* (6-3, 231)
Tyree Jackson, QB, Buffalo* (6-7, 249)
I'm biased against tight ends in dynasty drafts – it will often take three or more years for a tight end to hit in fantasy, even the good ones. But I do have additional concern with Fant that few others share. Fant was outproduced by Hockenson in the same offense at Iowa, and on tape I don't see a guy who plays to his athleticism off the snap or in the middle of the field. I remember enough cases of hyper-athletic TEs who burned out in the NFL (Michael Egnew, Chris Gragg, Virgil Green, etc.) that the mere distinction of being athletic doesn't mean much to me, and some objective good-case scenarios like Jared Cook would still be a huge bust at Fant's current first-round ADP. If Fant's athletic gifts are meaningful for his projected future production, why did the slower Hockenson post better per-target production (72.3 percent catch rate, 10.7 YPT) than Fant (56.6 percent catch rate, 8.3 YPT)? To be fair, Fant was more of a red-zone threat, posting a14.8 percent TD rate versus Hockenson's 8.9.
I'm still waiting for someone to clarify why Josh Allen can do anything Tyree Jackson can't.
Tier 4
Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State (6-0, 208)
Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State* (5-10, 211)
Travis Homer, RB, Miami (FL)* (5-11, 201)
Bryce Love, RB, Stanford (5-9, 200)
David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State (5-10, 222)
Ryquell Armstead, RB, Temple (5-11, 220)
Jazz Ferguson, WR, Northwestern State (6-5, 227)
Dillon Mitchell, WR, Oregon* (6-1, 197)
Irv Smith, TE, Alabama* (6-2, 242)
Darius Slayton, WR, Auburn* (6-1, 190)
Jaylen Smith, WR, Louisville (6-2, 219)
Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State* (6-3, 221)
Penny Hart, WR, Georgia State (5-8, 180)
Antoine Wesley, WR, Texas Tech* (6-4, 206)
Tony Pollard, RB/WR, Memphis* (6-0, 210)
Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M (5-8, 206)
Myles Gaskin, RB, Washington (5-9, 205)
Caleb Wilson, TE, UCLA* (6-4, 240)
Karan Higdon, RB, Michigan (5-9, 206)
Devin Singletary, RB, Florida Atlantic (5-8, 203)
Benny Snell, RB, Kentucky* (5-10, 224)
Alexander Mattison, RB, Boise State (5-11, 221)
This tier is mostly players who have various promising indicators for potential production if they get the opportunity, but their prospect limitations make it difficult to predict the specific level of opportunity for now.
No, I still don't believe in David Montgomery as more than an NFL backup. Why does no one think it's weird that the dynasty community has, for about a year now, held a cult-like reverence for Montgomery and Butler, two supposed star talents on an offense that ranked 62nd and 82nd out of 130 teams for yards per play and points per game, respectively? I'm willing to accept the premise that one of the two is an imminent star, but not both. It doesn't add up. Butler is of course far more likely to prove a hit.
Tier 5
Greg Dortch, WR, Wake Forest* (5-7, 173)
David Sills, WR, West Virginia (6-3, 211)
Olabisi Johnson, WR, Colorado State (6-1, 204)
Cody Thompson, WR, Toledo (6-2, 205)
L.J. Scott, RB, Michigan State (6-0, 227)
Jalin Moore, RB, Appalachian State (5-10, 212)
Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego State (6-5, 252)
Foster Moreau, TE, LSU (6-4, 253)
James Williams, RB, Washington State (5-11, 180)
Ty Johnson, RB, Maryland (5-10, 212)
Darwin Thompson, RB, Utah State* (5-8, 200)
Devine Ozigbo, RB, Nebraska (6-0, 235)
Drew Lock, QB, Missouri (6-4, 228)
Daniel Jones, QB, Duke (6-5, 221)
Ashton Dulin, WR, Malone (6-1, 215)
Preston Williams, WR, Colorado State* (6-4, 210)
Alex Wesley, WR, Northern Colorado (6-0, 190)
Keelan Doss, WR, UC-Davis (6-2, 211)
Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia (6-1, 199)
Jakobi Meyers, WR, North Carolina State* (6-2, 203)
Keesean Johnson, WR, Fresno State (6-1, 201)
Johnnie Dixon, WR, Ohio State (5-10, 201)
Anthony Johnson, WR, Buffalo (6-2, 209)
Papi White, WR, Ohio (5-9, 177)
John Ursua, WR, Hawaii* (5-10, 175)
I previously ranked Preston Williams 13th, which I feel stupid about in light of his disastrous pro day. He compounded initial character concerns with near proof that he didn't stay in shape over the offseason. He could disappear from the radar pretty quickly.
Tier 6
Terry Godwin, WR, Georgia (5-11, 184)
Nyqwan Murray, WR, Florida State (5-10, 191)
Ryan Davis, WR, Auburn (5-10, 189)
Jamal Custis, WR, Syracuse (6-4, 214)
Anthony Ratliff-Williams, WR, North Carolina* (6-1, 205)
Diontae Johnson, WR, Toledo (5-11, 183)
KeeNen Brown, TE, Texas State* (6-3, 250)
Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M* (6-4, 251)
Darrin Hall, RB, Pittsburgh (5-11, 225)
Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson (5-10, 184)
Emmanuel Butler, WR, Northern Arizona (6-3, 217)
Easton Stick, QB, North Dakota State (6-1, 224)
Olamide Zaccheaus, WR, Virginia (5-8, 190)
Josh Oliver, TE, San Jose State (6-5, 249)
Dawson Knox, TE, Mississippi* (6-4, 254)
Dax Raymond, TE, Utah State (6-5, 255)
Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn (6-2, 218)
I'm running out of things to say about these guys. The tight ends in this group are probably better than their QB/RB/WR counterparts, but their path to prominent playing time is murky at best.
Tier 7
Felton Davis, WR, Michigan State (6-4, 211)
Qadree Ollison, RB, Pittsburgh (6-1, 228)
Jordan Scarlett, RB, Florida* (5-11, 208)
Lil'Jordan Humphrey, WR, Texas* (6-4, 210)
Kaden Smith, TE, Stanford* (6-5, 255)
Jonathan Duhart, WR, Old Dominion (6-3, 210)
Damarkus Lodge, WR, Mississippi (6-2, 202)
Travis Fulgham, WR, Old Dominion (6-3, 215)
Davis would potentially make a fine prospect if he can bounce back from his Achilles' tendon tear, but that's a brutal one to have on your record while you're looking for an audition. Ollison, Humphrey, and Smith were quite productive but their combine testing was problematic.
