It's not often that we see two five-round fights on a non-pay-per-view card, but that's just what's on offer for Saturday's slate in Mexico City. We'll break down each bout on the 13-fight card, including a fighter without a UFC win who is being grossly underestimated and a cardio machine who will look to take a prospect's breath away. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Brandon Moreno ($8,700)
It's a shame that the flyweight division has been diluted to the point where fighters are now routinely rematching each other in the top 10, but the upshot is we have plenty of tape with which to make our decisions. Brandon Royval was unable to get the upper hand on the ground prior to losing via a shoulder injury, but it was clear that "The Assassin Baby" was the far better fighter on the feet and able to keep up with "Raw Dog" when the fight hit the floor. Moreno is tough enough that it is unlikely for Royval to surprise him with a big shot, which doesn't leave many avenues for the former title challenger to pick up a victory. As I alluded to in the open, this fight is five rounds, leaving Moreno with plenty of time to rack up points.
Raoni Barcelos ($8,600)
It's jarring to see that Barcelos has lost four of his last five fights, as the Brazilian fighter seems to have all the skills to be successful. His speed and grappling should be particularly relevant against Cristian Quinonez, who is a long, aggressive fighter but often rushes without minding his defenses. I expect Barcelos to mix in his takedowns in between scoring with leg kicks to pick up a comprehensive victory here.
Daniel Lacerda ($6,900)
Lacerda's price is truly mystifying, as he was $700 more expensive for his first fight with Edgar Chairez, which ended when the referee incorrectly determined that "Miojo" had lost consciousness while in a choke. I said in my initial breakdown that I didn't think guilotines would be enough to beat the fighter from Brazil, and I stand by the sentiment heading into this rematch, as Chiarez looked to be getting outgrappled prior to the stoppage. Four losses by KO/TKO may make prospective owners hesitant, but there is no reason I can find for the line to be this wide, making Lacerda an almost mandatory play in GPP tournaments.
Denys Bondar ($8,200)
I am counting on Bondar's activity to overwhelm a debutante in this one, as Luis (Ronaldo) Rodriguez is a wide-swinging counterpuncher. This should allow "Psycho" to not only get ahead on the judge's scorecards but also rack up points with strikes and takedowns. He has yet to record a win in the UFC, but he is in a nice position to put up a big score against a passive opponent.
Ricky Turcios ($7,200)
Turcios is a ball of energy in the cage who swings wildly and looks to grapple. This may be another test that prospect Raul Rosas will struggle to pass, as he gassed out hard in a loss to Christian Rodriguez in April. Rosas is an expert on the mat, but Turcios has never been submitted in his 18-fight career, which likely means that "El Nino Problema" will need to keep up with his opponent for 15 minutes.
Muhammadjon Naimov ($9,100)
Erik Silva was expected to roll in his UFC debut, but "The King" was outworked to the tune of 9:43 of control time before being submitted by TJ Brown in round two. Silva will now face a grappler who is just as strong in Naimov while also having to deal with a much more polished striker. I think Naimov will dictate where this fight takes place, dominating in each phase before eventually finding a stoppage.
Felipe dos Santos ($9,200)
It's almost impossible not to be impressed by Dos Santos' losing effort against Manel Kape, as "Lipe Detona" simply would not stop coming forward, throwing strikes and attempting takedowns with reckless abandon. This style of fight should be far too much for Victor Altamirano, who is reactive by nature and generally waits for his opponents to bring fights to him. This strategy will fit Dos Santos like a glove, as he should control the fight until he finds the finish.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Fares Ziam UNDER 44.5 Significant Strikes, Mateus Mendonca OVER 32.5 Significant Strikes, and Yazmin Jauregui UNDER 75.5 Significant Strikes
Ziam Works so slowly that I would have been tempted to take this under even if the opponent wasn't a lifelong grappler who has a penchant for rolling leglocks. Claudio Puelles won't want much to do with "The Smile Killer" on the feet, as Ziam is a powerful kickboxer who was taken down and submitted in short order by Terrance McKinney in 2022. Expect a lot of attempts to stay upright from Ziam here, which will heavily limit his significant strike output.
Mendonca is another Brazilian fighter who loves to grapple, but I don't think he'll be so eager to get the fight to the floor after being pounded out in his UFC debut against Nate Maness while attempting a knee bar. Jesus Aguilar is a slick boxer with solid takedown defense, so look for him to force a fight on the feet with constant pressure.
I wish I could say something about the fight between Jauregui and Sam Hughes makes sense, but not only is the money line inflated, Yazmin has only hit this mark once in her three UFC fights. Hughes is a physically strong fighter who will lean on her grappling advantage, making it hard to see where this many significant strikes are going to come from in a three-round fight.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Manuel Torres UNDER 5.0 Minutes of Fight Time, and Daniel Zellhuber UNDER 11.0 Minutes of Fight Time.
Torres may not physically have the ability to fight for longer than five minutes, as just one of his 16 professional fights has made it past the first round. Chris Duncan has a grappling game, but he didn't shy away from exchanges in his fight with Yanal Ashmouz and should meet Torres in the middle of the cage, whether that is what's best for his chances to win or not.
Francisco Prado landed just 38 significant strikes in his UFC debut, but this was largely due to Jamie Mullarkey's insistence on bringing the fight to the ground. Zellhuber isn't interested in wrestling, meaning there will be plenty of opportunities for big exchanges in the pocket. I expect a pace to be pushed by Prado here, resulting in a finish inside the first round.
Bets to Consider
Yair Rodriguez by KO/TKO (+220)
This is the second rematch on this card taking place due to an injury in the first fight, as a shoulder dislocation when the two went to the ground caused Brian Ortega to take a loss. Prior to this, Rodriguez was dictating on the feet, lighting Ortega up with kicks and scoring with solid jabs. "El Pantera's" takedown defense stands at just 59 percent, but Ortega has never been a particularly active or adept wrestler, so I think Rodriguez will be able to rely on his athleticism and scrambling on the ground to keep himself safe before he scores the knockout blow.
