Exploiting the Matchups: Week 9 Start/Sit

Has anyone else noticed that these weekly upgrade/downgrade recommendations have an excellent record of accuracy with quarterbacks and running backs, while the wide receivers and tight ends have been closer to a coin toss? Maybe it's a matter of recency bias or sample size, or perhaps I'm just seeing what I expect to see (funny how we as humans so consistently do that).

Whatever the case, I figured it was worth sharing the observation even if I'm not quite sure what else to do with it. Quarterbacks and running backs do inherently tend to be more consistent, and it's therefore easier to predict their outcomes when dealing with players on the margins of tough fantasy decisions. 

The workload sample is usually around 35 passes for a QB or 15 touches for a RB, whereas the typical pass catcher discussed below draws 4-to-8 targets per game. A favorable matchup doesn't really matter if our guy gets stuck with one of his low-volume games because his team jumps out to a huge lead or other players are having more luck drawing the quarterback's attention.

There's also some impact from tough matchups potentially creating more volume for pass catchers, as teams with good defenses are more likely to establish leads that encourage opponents to abandon the run. One recent example that comes to mind is the 2018 Bears defense, which, in terms of fantasy points, was first against RBs and fifth against QBs, but only 10th against WRs and TEs.

The funny thing about all this is that start/sit questions and matchup-oriented fantasy discussion tends to revolve around wide receivers, a position where we should probably be following the talent and volume rather than worrying too much about the opponent. To be fair, that's easier said than done, as the nature of the respective positions tends to create a large group of WR3/4 types with similar weekly projections in the range of 11-to-13 PPR points.

It's a bit scary to think about how much time I've wasted on those WR3 decisions over the years, knowing all along there was a 47 percent chance I'd get each one wrong. On the other hand, I tend to feel confident in my QB and RB decisions, though there's always that one league where the RB2 spot ends up as a disastrous revolving door (up next: Mark Walton).  

Before we get into specific players, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups and determining player valuations each week:

• Jeff Erickson's value meter
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RotoWire's weekly composite rankings
• Betting odds
• RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com
• Opponent and teammate injuries
• Target share
• Snap counts
• Defense vs. Position stats

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions.

Upgrades

 QUARTERBACK

• Gardner Minshew, JAX vs. HOU (in London)

Minshew made his first NFL start Week 2 in Houston, throwing for 213 yards and a touchdown on 33 pass attempts to bring the Jaguars within a few inches of a comeback win. He'll be on neutral turf in London for the rematch, this time facing a defense that just lost J.J. Watt to a season-ending pectoral tear. The Texans also have big-time injury woes at cornerback, where Lonnie Johnson is in the concussion protocol and both Bradley Roby and Gareon Conley are battling hamstring injuries. This isn't a defense with much wiggle room in the first place, as only three teams have given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks. The damage includes 294 passing yards, 2.3 touchdowns and 0.4 interceptions per game, with the past two weeks marked by best-of-the-season fantasy scores from Derek Carr (285 yards, three TDs) and Jacoby Brissett (326 yards, four TDs).

• Derek Carr, OAK vs. DET

Nobody would've guessed it before the season, but Lions-Raiders has the look of a shootout, with the second-largest over/under (50.5) and third-smallest spread (OAK -2.5) of Week 9. Each of the Raiders' past four games featured at least 21 points for both teams, and the Lions have played five in a row matching that criteria. Detroit has given up the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks — 303 passing yards, 2.0 TDs, 0.4 INTs per game — and seems to be moving in the wrong direction after handing out huge performances to Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones the past two weeks. Carr is still a dinker and dunker with the fourth-shallowest average depth of target (6.5) among qualified passers, but it's working better than usual for him this season, as he's on track for career highs in completion percentage (72.1), yards per attempt (7.7) and QBR (55.1) while also boasting the league's second-lowest sack rate (3.5).

• Honorable Mentions: Dak Prescott, DAL at NYG; Matthew Stafford, DET at OAK; Josh Allen, BUF vs. WAS; Sam Darnold, NYJ at MIA; Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA vs. NYJ

RUNNING BACK

• James White, NE at BAL

White has been remarkably consistent, perhaps to the point of frustration for fantasy owners, who may be wondering if he'll ever have a big game. He's landed between 11.9 and 13.8 PPR points each week this season, whereas last year he had four games with fewer than 9.0 and four others with more than 25.0. A closer-than-usual point spread (-3.5) for Week 9 should favor White over Sony Michel, especially against a Ravens defense that's rebounded nicely from a Week 4 gashing at the hands of Nick Chubb. Run-stuffing DT Brandon Williams missed that game with an injury, but he returned the next week to help stymie James Conner (14-55-1), followed by Joe Mixon (8-10-0) and Chris Carson (21-65-0).

Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels do a great job crafting opponent-specific gameplans, so they probably won't waste much time trying to overpower a defense that has Williams and 340-pounder Michael Pierce clogging up the middle. Instead, the Patriots would be wise to attack linebacker Patrick Onwuasor, who has given up the second-most yards per coverage snap (2.28) among all defenders with 100 or more coverage snaps, per PFF. The 27-year-old has allowed 80 reception on 93 career passes into his coverage, including 22-of-23 for 287 yards (12.5 YPT) this season. 

• Jamaal Williams, GB at LAC

Williams can't possibly continue to score touchdowns at this rate, though there is something to be said for a regular workload in an Aaron Rodgers offense. The running back has taken at least seven touches in each healthy game, averaging 8.3 carries, 3.5 targets, 57.5 scrimmage yards and 0.8 touchdowns in those six contests. Week 9 brings another matchup with room for both Williams and Aaron Jones to thrive, as the Chargers have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs, yielding 4.5 YPC (t-21st) and 7.1 YPT (t-25th). Things got particularly ugly last week in Chicago, where David Montgomery's 135 rushing yards more than doubled his previous high. The Chargers played that game without starting defensive tackles Justin Jones (shoulder) and Brandon Mebane (knee), both of whom remained absent from practice to start Week 9.

• Honorable Mentions: Tevin Coleman, SF at ARZ, Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. GB; Devin Singletary, BUF vs. WAS

WIDE RECEIVER

• Michael Gallup, DAL at NYG

It doesn't take a genius to upgrade wide receivers against the Giants, with Kenny Golladay (6-123-2) and Danny Amendola (8-95-0) the most recent beneficiaries of a matchup against this dreadful secondary. Only two teams have allowed more fantasy points to the position, and no team has yielded more yards per target (10.6) on throws to wide receivers. Gallup himself took advantage in Week 1, shredding the Giants for seven catches and 158 yards on seven targets. 

It's been a while since he enjoyed a big game, but the worst we've seen this year is three catches for 34 yards, which he should eclipse before halftime against a defense with three cornerbacks in the bottom 25 for yards allowed into their coverage, per PFF. The strongest of the weak links is Janoris Jenkins, who shadowed Amari Cooper in Week 1 but strictly played left cornerback (per PFF) the past five weeks. Gallup has taken 48 percent of his snaps wide left and another 21 percent in the slot, so he'll mostly avoid Jenkins even if the 31-year-old doesn't strictly shadow Cooper.

• Mike Williams, LAC vs. GB

Williams checks many of the boxes that cause a player to be undervalued, featuring an unusually low rate of touchdowns (zero) to yards (419), plus steady volume (7.1 targets per game) that includes high-value opportunities (15.4 aDOT). Despite missing one game, Williams is eighth in the league with 768 air yards, nestled between Stefon Diggs (772) and John Brown (735). The 25-year-old simply hasn't been efficient on his most important plays, with seven end-zone targets (t-7th) failing to produce even a single TD, per PFF. Given what we saw last season when he scored 10 times on just 66 targets, it's only a matter of time before the 6-foot-4 receiver hits pay dirt.

His Week 9 matchup initially doesn't appear favorable to that quest, but the Packers have shown a high-risk, high-reward pass defense that could work in Williams' favor. Despite ranking seventh in interception rate (2.9) and opponent completion percentage (61.2), the Packers are tied for last in allowing pass plays of 40 or more yards (nine) and t-27th in gains of 20-plus (32). The ability to force incompletions partially has been offset by a mark of 12.8 yards per completion, fifth-highest in the league. We also get the possibility of Williams drawing a primary matchup with Packers cornerback Kevin King, who has given up a league-high 567 yards into his coverage this season, per PFF. The Chargers move Williams all around the field, but the Packers sometimes use shadow coverage, which likely would put King on Williams and Jaire Alexander on Keenan Allen.

• Danny Amendola, DET at OAK

A chest injury in September cost Amendola one game and seemed to contribute to limited playing time in two others, perhaps obscuring his importance to the Detroit offense. He's averaging 8.3 targets in his four games with snap share above 50 percent, most recently catching eight passes in back-to-back weeks. He'll now take aim at struggling slot man Lamarcus Joyner, whose four-year, $42 million contract is looking like one of the worst deals from 2019 free agency. With his new team using him at nickelback instead of his accustomed spot at free safety, Joyner has allowed 32 catches for 334 yards and a touchdown on 41 targets in slot coverage, with 1.64 yards per cover snap putting him 25th among 27 players with 100 or more inside cover snaps, per PFF. From a broader perspective, Oakland has given up the fifth-most fantasy points and fourth-most yards per target (9.9) to wide receivers.

• Honorable Mentions: DK Metcalf, SEA vs. TB; D.J. Chark and Chris Conley, JAX vs. HOU; Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder, NYJ at MIA; Preston Williams and DeVante Parker, MIA vs. NYJ; Cole Beasley, BUF vs. WAS; Deebo Samuel, SF at ARZ; Diontae Johnson, PIT vs. IND

TIGHT END

• Darren Fells, HOU at JAX

A 33-year-old tight end mostly known for blocking, Fells handled snap shares of 79, 89, 65 and 90 percent the past four games, averaging 4.0 catches for 43.5 yards and 1.0 TDs on 4.3 targets. He peaked last week when Will Fuller (hamstring) was inactive, with six receptions for 58 yards and two TDs while running a season-high 34 routes, per PFF. This usage won't necessarily last throughout the season, but the life span at least seems to have another week, considering Fuller isn't expected to play in the London game and Jordan Akins seems to have fallen behind Fells for passing-down snaps. The Jaguars haven't been great against tight ends, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points and 14th-most YPT (8.2), including last week's 4-66-2 receiving line for Ryan Griffin.

• Honorable Mentions: Vance McDonald, PIT vs. IND; T.J. Hockenson, DET at OAK

KICKER 

• Brett Maher, DAL at NYG

Despite scoring 14 and 15 fantasy points in his past two games, Maher was dropped by a lot of teams during the Cowboys' bye week. He'll return to action against a Giants squad that's given up the sixth-most points (27.3) and fifth-most yards (386.8), with every opponent besides Washington scoring 27 or more points. Maher hasn't been consistent on mid-range kicks during his two-year NFL career, but he's gone seven of 12 from 50-plus yards, including conversions from 62 and 63.

• Honorable mentions: Daniel Carlson, OAK vs. DET; Stephen Hauschka, BUF vs. WAS

Downgrades

QUARTERBACK

• Jacoby Brissett, IND at PIT

Much maligned earlier this year, the Pittsburgh defense has pulled its act together since Week 3, allowing no more than 348 yards or 26 points in any game, with multiple takeaways in each contest. The unit is now up to 13th in scoring average (20.7), 10th in yards allowed (336.6) and ninth in DVOA (-5.7%), getting a boost from Minkah Fitzpatrick (three INTs) and a DPOY-worthy season from T.J. Watt (six sacks, 17 QB hits). It all adds up to a rough matchup for Brissett, who accumulated nine of his 15 TDs (60 percent) and 901 of his 1,590 passing yards (57 percent) in games against the Falcons, Raiders and Texans — all bottom-of-the-barrel pass defenses.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Kyler Murray, ARZ at SF; Baker Mayfield, CLE at DEN; Ryan Tannehill, TEN at CAR

RUNNING BACK

• David Montgomery, CHI vs PHI

It's tempting to view Montgomery's Week 8 breakout as the start of something bigger, and while that ultimately may end up being the case, he'll likely swing back in the struggle direction for at least one more game, facing an Eagles defense that's allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points and third-lowest YPC (3.4) to running backs. It's a far cry from what Montgomery dealt with last week when the already vulnerable Chargers had both of their starting defensive tackles on the inactive list with injuries. If you'd rather keep things simple, consider that Chicago is a five-point underdog and still has Tarik Cohen handling most of the passing downs. Montgomery will have a tough time piling up snaps and touches without the help of a solid game from Mitchell Trubisky.

• Kenyan Drake, ARZ vs. SF

We can't necessarily trust Kliff Kingsbury's comments about using a committee backfield, but even the best-case scenario for Drake's workload leaves him facing a dominant defense while trying to figure out a new offensive scheme. The 49ers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs, with opponents rarely able to sustain drives or reach scoring position. The Cardinals have the second-smallest implied total (16.5) of Week 9, with the 49ers defense ranking second in points allowed (11.0), first in yards (224.4) and second in DVOA (-41.6%).

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Sony Michel, NE at BAL, Melvin Gordon, LAC vs. GB; Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, DEN vs. CLE

WIDE RECEIVER

• Terry McLaurin, WAS at BUF

McLaurin made a case for every-week starter status earlier this year, but no man is immune to the perils of team context, and few have it worse than the talented rookie. With Case Keenum recovering from a concussion and Dwayne Haskins showing no sign of competence, McLaurin seems to have everything working against him before we even consider the matchup. That's when it really starts to get ugly, as Washington has the lowest implied total (13.5) of Week 9, facing a Buffalo defense that's yielded the third-fewest fantasy points and fifth-fewest receiving yards (136.6 per game) to WRs. The only good news is that McLaurin may avoid Tre'Davious White for the most part, as the Bills have played sides with their cornerbacks this year.

• Phillip Dorsett, NE at BAL

With Marcus Peters and now Jimmy Smith (foot) joining Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr, the Ravens suddenly are four-deep at cornerback, after suffering through Anthony Averett and Maurice Canady earlier this season. Julian Edelman gets too many targets to consider benching, but the same can't be said for Dorsett, who saw just 10 of Tom Brady's 81 passes (12 percent) the past two weeks. Mohamed Sanu also can't be trusted, but he'll at least have some opportunities to work over the middle against zone coverages, potentially taking advantage of the Ravens' shaky linebackers.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Marquise Brown, BAL vs. NE; Jarvis Landry, CLE at DEN; Corey Davis, TEN at CAR

TIGHT END

• Jimmy Graham, GB at LAC

If it was going to happen, it would've already happened by now. Graham theoretically should've seen more work with Davante Adams (toe) out of the lineup, but instead the tight end averaged 3.0 catches for 35.8 yards on 4.3 targets, with one touchdown in four games. Adams now appears close to a return, potentially rejoining an offense that dealt with his absence by extracting more from its running backs. Even if Adams is out again, the Packers likely will stick with their backfield-centric gameplan, facing a Chargers defense that's given up the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs and the 17th-most to tight ends.

• Not-so-Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, BAL vs. NE; Kyle Rudolph, MIN at KC