Exploiting the Matchups: Week 13 Start/Sit

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Published on December 2, 2021

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Thursday morning.

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Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins (at DET)

45% started

I don't really buy that Cousins is more valuable without Dalvin Cook* in the lineup, but I do buy that he's more valuable against defenses that can't cover. The Lions are 30th in pass-defense DVOA and 32nd in NY/A (7.5), allowing a modest number of fantasy points to QBs for one reason and one reason only — they've faced a league-low 340 attempts, 30.9 per game. Fortunately, 30 or so passes should be enough for Cousins to thrive, even if he's perhaps a secondary attraction to Alexander Mattison for fantasy purposes

*Over the past three years, Cousins has averaged 20.9 points in 38 games with Cook, compared to 23.6 points in five games without Cook. That's not definitive, but it's at least interesting... less so once you see the results from 2018 (when Cook missed five games and wasn't yet considered an elite RB). That year, Cousins averaged 21.6 per game with Cook and 20.2 without him. Overall, for the four years they've been together, Cousins has averaged 21.1 points in 48 games with Cook, compared to 21.9 points in 10 games without him. That's inconclusive, in my opinion.

Honorable Mentions: QB Carson Wentz, IND at HOU; QB Taylor Heinicke, WAS at

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Thursday morning.

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Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins (at DET)

45% started

Honorable Mentions: QB Carson Wentz, IND at HOU; QB Taylor Heinicke, WAS at LV

Running Backs

Boston Scott and/or Miles Sanders (at NYJ)

22% and 50% started

Scott is dealing with an illness and Sanders an ankle injury, but both seem more likely than not to play, with some chance for a huge workload for one guy if the other doesn't suit up. Jordan Howard (knee) seems to be out for at least one more week, while Kenneth Gainwell has seen all of four carries (and only five targets) over the past four weeks, including a healthy scratch for the one game where Sanders/Scott/Howard all were healthy. Circumstances should work a little more in the rookie's favor this week, but it'll likely be Scott and/or Sanders leading the rushing attack with QB Jalen Hurts (ankle) banged up against a Jets defense that opened the week with DTs Sheldon Rankins (knee) and Folorunso Fatukasi (back) absent from practice.

Javonte Williams (at KC)

44% started

This is an easy one if Melvin Gordon (hip/shoulder) doesn't play. But let's assume he does, and let's start Williams anyway. Even before Gordon was banged up, there were minor signs of progress for the rookie, with the past two games yielding his two largest snap shares of the season. The second of those games, last week against the Chargers, also featured a new high-water mark for fantasy points (20.1), with Williams punching in a nine-yard rushing TD and later coming close to another on a 42-yard reception.

Williams should have another productive outing Sunday night against a defense ranked 28th in both DVOA against the run and YPC allowed (4.6). The Chiefs defense certainly isn't as bad as it looked early in the season, but it also isn't nearly as good as it looked in the four-week stretch preceding a Week 12 bye. We'll side with the long-term track record of struggles defending the run.

Honorable Mentions: James Conner, ARZ at CHI; Myles Gaskin, MIA vs. NYG; Ty Johnson, NYJ vs. PHI

Wide Receivers

Chase Claypool (vs. BAL)

52% started

Big plays have been Baltimore's kryptonite all year*, in part due to communication/assignment issues in the secondary, but also because that's the price you pay for repeatedly calling zero blitzes without elite talent on the back end. It's actually working fine for the Ravens, with a league-low 30.5 percent conversion rate on third downs making up for the plethora of long gains. The bet here is that Claypool, the Steelers' main deep threat, gets a couple more one-on-one chances downfield than he normally would.

*No team has allowed more plays of 50-plus yards (eight) or 40-plus (14) and only the Jets have allowed more of 20-plus (58).

Christian Kirk (at CHI)

22% started

While DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) may be back this week to compete for targets, QB Kyler Murray (ankle) seems even more likely to play, boosting the entire Arizona passing attack. In any case, Hopkins' return might actually work in Kirk's favor this week, putting him back in the slot on a full-time basis after some dabbling with perimeter work the past three games.

That'd be especially valuable against the banged-up Bears, with slot corner Duke Shelley (IR/hamstring) and ILB Roquan Smith (hamstring) likely unavailable to patrol the middle of the field. Between Smith, DL Akiem Hicks (ankle) and OLB Khalil Mack (foot), the Bears may enter Sunday without three of their top four defensive players, not to mention the three sub-package players (Shelley, OLB Jeremiah Attaochu, ILB Danny Trevathan) already on injured reserve.

Honorable Mentions: DeVonta Smith & Quez Watkins, PHI at NYJ; Hunter Renfrow, LV vs. WAS; Michael Pittman & T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. HOU

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas (at LV)

32% started

Thomas took on 66 snaps (79 percent share) and six targets in his first game back from IR, finishing with a 3-31-0 receiving line that was nearly 4-34-1 (he had a TD overturned late in the fourth quarter). The main point is that he handled an almost-normal workload after missing nearly two months, and could now be cleared for an even larger share of the snaps/routes in a Week 13 matchup with a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass.

Honorable Mentions: Rob Gronkowski, TB at ATL; Dallas Goedert, PHI at NYJ; Tyler Higbee, LAR vs. JAX; Tyler Conklin, MIN at DET; Foster Moreau, LV vs. WAS

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Quarterbacks

QB Russell Wilson (vs. SF)

56% started

In terms of fantasy scoring, Wilson did okay last week (19.5 points) after my "one last chance" declaration. The Seahawks, however, remained a mess overall, with no running game to speak of, and needing a ton of luck at the end just to make it a close game against a below-average WFT that was missing its two best pass rushers.

In other words, don't expect too much this week, with the Seahawks playing on a short week against the sizzling 49ers. Linebacker injuries theoretically create a soft spot for the Seahawks to exploit, but that might not matter if Joey Bosa and Arik Armstead spend the entire afternoon in Seattle's backfield harassing Wilson and his substandard blockers.

Honorable Mentions: Mac Jones, NE at BUF; Matt Ryan, ATL vs. TB

Running Backs

Tony Pollard (at NO)

53% started

Pollard might be the best backup RB in the league, and the past week has been filled with chatter about the Cowboys resting Ezekiel Elliott (knee). Ultimately, though, it won't happen this week, with Zeke cleared from the injury report and said to be set for a "serious load" (according to Cowboys owner Jerry Jones) Thursday night in New Orleans. Sure, Pollard will still get more touches than a typical backup, but it might just be 8-10 looks, and against a defense that's given up the fewest fantasy points to RBs while leading the league in DVOA against the run.

Damien Harris (at BUF)

49% started

Harris was featured in the Upgrades section last week, with the warning that losing snaps/touches to Rhamondre Stevenson would be more of a problem in the future in games where the Patriots aren't heavily favored. As it turns out, the RB workloads against Tennessee were slightly disappointing even in a comfortable win, though Harris did reach the end zone on one of his 12 touches (while Stevenson got nine carries and one target). Given his near-even split with the rookie for two weeks now — in combination with the matchup against a top-five defense — Harris comes with huge risk of a dud in Week 13.

In fact, it might be a while before you start him again if you have other RB2 plays, with the Patriots on bye in Week 14 before facing the Colts and Bills (again). The reward for patient fantasy managers? A Week 17 home game against Jacksonville.

Honorable Mentions: Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at BUF; David Johnson, HOU vs. IND; Alex Collins, SEA vs. SF

Wide Receivers

Elijah Moore (vs. PHI)

50% started

The recent combination of production and volume might make Moore an auto-start in deep leagues, but with Zach Wilson back under center the Jets' more capable rookie takes a big hit. Moore has caught just 13 of his 30 targets from Wilson (43.3%, 4.2 YPT, 0 TDs), compared to 24 of 35 from all other passers (68.6%, 9.6 YPT, 4 TDs). Their connection should improve over time, but perhaps not this week against an Eagles defense that's given up the third fewest fantasy points to wide receivers while placing two cornerbacks (Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox) in the Top 10 of PFF's position rankings.

Honorable Mentions: Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor & Kendrick Bourne, NE at BUF; Corey Davis (groin) & Jamison Crowder, NYJ vs. PHI; Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. LAC; Marquez Callaway & Tre'Quan Smith, NO vs. DAL

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox (vs. NE)

52% started

It is possible this matchup works in Knox's favor, with an impressive New England secondary and (potentially) bad weather perhaps encouraging Josh Allen to look toward his tight end more often. More likely, however, is that it's just a tough matchup for all the Buffalo pass catchers, leaving Stefon Diggs as the only must-start. The Patriots have allowed a league-low 7.5 PPR points per game to tight ends, and while schedule is certainly a factor, the lack of production hasn't just been about volume, with 5.4 YPT being the second-best mark in the league.