Farm Futures: Ranking The Farm Systems

For the third year in a row, I am pleased to present RotoWire's formula-based farm system rankings directly after the trade deadline. I spent the past couple days doing a full update to the top 400, which included 31 new additions, so the rankings are fresh and all of the deadline deals are in the books. 

I have tweaked the formula for the farm system rankings each year in an effort to improve on the accuracy of the rankings. This year, I broke the rankings up into tiers based on my valuations, and then I assigned point values for players in each tier.

In some years, the point values may be different, but as you can see, I think there is a pretty big gap between the current No. 1 prospect (Wander Franco) and the No. 2 prospect (Jo Adell). There are also gaps between Gavin Lux (No. 4) and Nate Lowe (No. 5); Adley Rutschman (No. 17) and Alex Kirilloff (No. 18); Casey Mize (No. 30) and Trent Grisham (No. 31); Michael Kopech (No. 54) and Daniel Johnson (No. 55) and so on and so on...

Here are this year's farm system rankings, with total points in parenthesis:

1. Padres (90)

Last year: 1st

For the second year in a row, the Padres are the top farm system in baseball, but if I waited until Luis Urias graduates in a week or so, they would probably fall out of the top two. Nailing the CJ Abrams pick and acquiring Taylor Trammell at the deadline really solidified their place at the top.

2. Rays (87)

Last year: 2nd

The Rays could have been first in these rankings if they didn't trade Jesus Sanchez away at the deadline, but it was a pretty easy move to justify, given their organizational depth chart. Nate Lowe and Brendan McKay will presumably graduate this year, but I still expect this to be a top-10 system a year from now.

3. Indians (82)

Last year: 13th

I've been saying for over a year now that at some point the Indians will have the top system in the game, and I expect that to be the case a year from now. They have so much intriguing talent in the lower levels -- it's inevitable guys will continue to pop, as has happened this year with George Valera, Gabriel Rodriguez and Aaron Bracho.

4. Diamondbacks (77)

Last year: 23rd

Back-to-back great drafts combined with excellence on the international front (Kristian Robinson, Wilderd Patino and Liover Peguero in 2017, Geraldo Perdomo in 2016, Luis Frias in 2015) have propelled Arizona into the conversation for the potential top system in the game a year from now.

5. Dodgers (70)

Last year: 12

This team develops its prospects like none other. This can't be proven, but I almost guarantee that Gavin Lux, Dustin May and Will Smith wouldn't be the players they are today if just any team had drafted them. Last year's trade with the Reds that netted Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray really boosted this system into the upper echelon.

6. Twins (64)

Last year: 7th

This front office really knows what it is doing. This system reminds me a little of the Cubs' system from when it was at its peak. It's strength is in position players -- the difference being that this Twins team is a contender before graduating all of its studs.

7. Blue Jays (56)

Last year: 3rd

They graduated Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio, but still have Bo Bichette and enough depth to rate highly. Nate Pearson, Alek Manoah, Eric Pardinho, Simeon Woods Richardson and Adam Kloffenstein all have at least No. 2 starter upside.

8. Marlins (56)

Last year: 27th

I am a huge Zac Gallen fan, but for a team that is as far away from contending as the Marlins are, cashing out an arm for a shortstop with superstar potential (Jazz Chisholm) makes a lot of sense. We know that not all of their position player prospects will hit, but having a bunch of irons in the fire makes it likely that at least a few will work out. Not many systems can top the trio of Sixto Sanchez, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera.

9. Giants (52)

Last year: 26th

Farhan Zaidi has done a great job, but the previous regime was responsible for a lot of the talent that has blossomed in this system. There is so much upward momentum with all of the toolsy hitters they have in the lower levels. Marco Luciano could be the guy who steps into the No. 1 spot after Wander Franco graduates. I fully expect this to be a top-five system next year.

10. Tigers (52)

Last year: 24th

This is not a bad landing spot for Detroit, especially when factoring in down years from Daz Cameron and Isaac Paredes. They nailed the Riley Greene pick, but the health of Matt Manning and Casey Mize over the next few years will probably make or break this rebuild.

11. Athletics (52)

Last year: 14th

I was surprised that the A's rated this highly, but having four top-55 prospects goes a long way. The Logan Davidson pick seemed bad at the time and looks worse now. I stand by the Kyler Murray pick, however.

12. White Sox (50)

Last year: 4th

I have a feeling this ranking will be somewhat controversial, but there's simply no depth in this system. Their top five stacks up with almost any team, but almost every team beats their next 15 prospects. Essentially whiffing on Zack Collins and Jake Burger (not necessarily their fault) really stings.

13. Mariners (49)

Last year: 28th

Seattle has done very well in trades, bringing in top-50 prospects in Jake Fraley and Jarred Kelenic this past offseason. They've also done pretty well in the draft and on the international market in recent years.

14. Yankees (48)

Last year: 11th

Estevan Florial needed to hit in a return to High-A this year, and he hasn't. Antonio Cabello and Everson Pereira haven't lived up to expectations. However, Deivi Garcia and Luis Gil are studs, plus Alexander Vargas and Maikol Escotto have taken the place of Cabello and Pereira as lottery-ticket teenagers worth gambling on. It also helps to have a top-20 prospect (Jasson Dominguez) who hasn't even played in a pro game yet.

15. Angels (43)

Last year: 9th

They graduated Luis Rengifo and Griffin Canning, but also got poor seasons to date from guys like Jahmai Jones and D'Shawn Knowles. Will Wilson's bat is legit, and Hector Yan (Low-A lefty with electric stuff) was a big riser on the top-400 update.

16. Braves (42)

Last year: 5th

Graduations are the sole reason this system has tumbled down the rankings. The Braves have one of the best young cores in the game, so I really have nothing but praise for that front office. The Braden Shewmake pick has worked out much better than I expected -- he looks like he might have one of the best hit tools from that draft class.

17. Astros (42)

Last year: 6th

I was a little surprised that Houston didn't turn Abraham Toro into a pitcher like Marcus Stroman or Robbie Ray, but maybe that means they really buy what he's done this year. The Zack Greinke trade was a master class, as they didn't need any of the four prospects they gave up. Their 2019 draft was a complete disaster, however.

18. Orioles (42)

Last year: 21st

Baby steps for the O's. This system is in good hands -- I really like what this new front office has done -- but it will take another couple years before they are in the top 10. Adley Rutschman was easy, and another top-three pick will be on the way in 2020.

19. Rangers (40)

Last year: 25th

When you go after pitching in the draft, sometimes you're left with very little, and that seems to be the case with Texas for now from the 2016-2018 drafts. In Bubba Thompson, Osleivis Basabe, Luisangel Acuna, Alexander Ovalles and Bayron Lora, there's a lot to dream on, but there's also a chance none of those guys amounts to anything.

20. Pirates (38)

Last year: 19th

Pittsburgh is barely in the top 20 overall but has far and away the top farm system in the NL Central, so there's a silver lining, I guess. While the Chris Archer trade was a heinous transaction, they only gave up one actual prospect (Shane Baz) in the deal, so it didn't sink the system. Tahnaj Thomas should be scooped in most dynasty leagues.

21. Mets (34)

Last year: 18th

The Francisco Alvarez breakout (which has me questioning whether he's actually 17) and Ronny Mauricio's existence have helped them not completely bottom out after the misguided effort to compete this year. They should also get credit for diving in on Matthew Allan.

22. Royals (34)

Last year: 22nd

It's pretty dispiriting to see that the Royals really haven't gained much ground in these rankings. I can easily dream on Bobby Witt Jr. and Erick Pena hitting back-to-back in the middle of a big-league lineup someday, but that day will be four or five years from now. 

23. Nationals (31)

Last year: 10th

The graduation of Victor Robles and the slightly disappointing showing from Luis Garcia result in this big drop. I still think Garcia will turn into the player I expected him to be, it's just going to take longer than I anticipated.

24. Phillies (30)

Last year: 17th

I was lower on him than most coming into the year, but Luis Garcia has been a massive flop against full-season pitching, which coupled with trading away Sixto Sanchez results in a poor showing in these rankings. Johan Rojas has all the helium -- he should be scooped up in most dynasty leagues.

25. Red Sox (28)

Last year: 29th

This is how Dave Dombrowski rolls, and most teams would be lucky to have him. Antoni Flores hasn't broken out like we all hoped, but Triston Casas, Gilberto Jimenez and Bryan Mata have exceeded expectations.

26. Cardinals (27)

Last year: 20th

The John Mozeliak regime has been sneaky bad over the past few years. They gave away Tommy Pham, and from a real-life asset standpoint, I think they lost the Paul Goldschmidt, Oscar Mercado and Tyler O'Neill trades, although it's probably too soon to declare a winner on the latter. Dylan Carlson's breakout season saves them from being dead last.

27. Brewers (24)

Last year: 15th

They would have been in dead last had Trent Grisham not had an all-time breakout season. I'm not necessarily sure how his success will translate against MLB pitching, but his minor-league production was definitely backed up by the underlying numbers. Antoine Kelly looks like he could be the steal of the 2019 draft, which also helps.

28. Reds (23)

Last year: 8th

Since last year's rankings, Hunter Greene had Tommy John surgery, Taylor Trammell, Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs were traded, and Nick Senzel graduated. They've pushed their chips in for the most part, and I think that's commendable, but I'm afraid they won't have anything to show for it when we look back in a few years. 

29. Rockies (23)

Last year: 16th

Obviously you all know I'm lower on Brendan Rodgers than the pack, but even if I were high on him, this system would be in the bottom 10. There's just very little impact potential with most of their prospects. Michael Toglia and Aaron Schunk both look great so far, so imagine where this system would be if the Rockies hadn't nailed the 2019 draft. This is the only NL West system that's not in the top 10.

30. Cubs (20)

Last year: 30th

Like I said last year regarding this system, flags fly forever. That said, they didn't get much of anything from the 2017 draft or the 2016 draft, and their big international buys over the past few years haven't really worked out.