Tyler O'Neill

In 2020, O'Neill improved selectivity, but he hit the ball with less authority. Last season, he regained some aggressiveness, establishing a new career best with 94th percentile average exit velocity and 93rd percentile hard-hit rate. The improvement began in 2020 when he chased fewer sliders and curves while increasing contact on both. Last season, he kept this, adding a 5-mph jump in average exit velocity on breakers. O'Neill's plate skills are still suspect, but he found a combination allowing him to drive the ball with pitch recognition the key. This bodes well for continued growth as O'Neill's athleticism just needed improved baseball sense. Health is an issue as O'Neill lost time with groin, finger, and back issues, though nothing appears chronic. O'Neill's defense remained a plus. Repeating last season's rate stats will be a challenge, but more playing time should keep counting stats bountiful.

O'Neill is an enigma. Physically, he screams athlete. He has a lot of raw power and speed to spare and looks like he could play slot receiver in the NFL. Those tools have yet to translate into much on the stat sheet as through 450 career PA; he has struck out 34.0% of the time and posted a .229/.291/.422 slash line. On the positive side, both his walk rate and strikeout rate have improved in each of his three seasons at the big-league level, but there is still too much swing-and-miss in his game. In 2020 we saw him rather overmatched at the plate, particularly against the fastball (.155 BA), and breaking balls (.186) continue to be a problem. The Cardinals traded away Tommy Pham and Randy Arozarena in recent seasons to help clear a path for O'Neill, so they hope he continues to improve at the plate to close the gorge between his tools and his production.

O'Neill was slowed by a number of injuries during the 2019 campaign, and as a result, he was limited to 60 major-league contests. During that span, he hit .262 with five home runs and 16 RBI, though he struck out at an alarming rate (35.1 K%) and finished with a 91 wRC+. He also walked in just 6.6% of his plate appearances. Oddly enough, O'Neill showcased more power against right-handed pitching, as all five of his long balls came against right-handers. O'Neill's sample size in the big leagues is still relatively small at this point, but he continues to struggle with plate discipline along with maintaining good health over the course of a major-league season. Taking into consideration the depth that the Cardinals currently have in the outfield, the 24-year-old appears to have his work cut out for him in spring training if he's to make the Opening Day roster.

O'Neill split his time in 2018 between Triple-A Memphis and St. Louis, and certainly flashed his big-league potential with nine home runs in only 142 at-bats while showing off an impressive outfield glove. The 23-year-old has little else to prove after posting a 1.078 OPS at Triple-A, but it remains to be seen if that success will translate to the majors. The big issue is his plate discipline. He posted a 40.1 K% and 4.9 BB% with the Cardinals. It was obviously a small sample size, but his strikeout rate ranked third worst in MLB among hitters with 100-plus PA, behind only Drew Robinson and Brett Phillips. Players like Aaron Judge have famously overcome similarly rough debuts, and O'Neill won't turn 24 until June 22. He will certainly get a chance to showcase himself come spring training, and has as much raw power as anyone on the roster. However, the Cardinals' outfield depth means he may be ticketed for Triple-A again to start the season.

The Cardinals netted O'Neill from Seattle for a soft-tossing southpaw (Marco Gonzales) who brings a 5.47 MLB ERA into his age-26 season. That's a good way of contextualizing how valuable the 22-year-old slugger is. He has posted isolated power figures above .200 at every stop above rookie ball, but his .293 average (.364 BABIP) at Double-A in 2016 now looks like an extreme outlier. The power is very legitimate, but so are his swing and miss issues. He has kept his strikeout rate below 30 percent over the past two seasons, but he is the type of a player who gets to the majors and immediately strikes out roughly 35 percent of the time because there are fewer mistakes to crush and big-league pitchers will exploit the holes in his swing. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals have a heap of young big-league-ready outfielders, and it's hard to see where he fits in. If he appears in line to get regular at-bats, he will be worth rostering in deeper formats, but not before then.

O'Neill does not look the part of a top-50 prospect. He looks like he could be the body-building nephew of Ty Wigginton or Casey McGehee. Right or wrong, scouts factor in physical appearance, which is one reason why it took so long for the 5-foot-11, 210-pound corner outfielder to emerge as someone prospect hounds took seriously. Another factor that limited O'Neill's value heading into 2016 was the amount of swing-and-miss in his game. However, for the first time since he was 18 and playing in the Arizona League, he posted a strikeout rate south of 30 percent (26.1 percent). He also walked at a career-best 10.8 percent clip and sported a 152 wRC+ while playing in the neutral hitting environments of the Southern League, putting to rest any concerns that his 2015 numbers were buoyed by the thin air of the Cal League. The power is plus, the hit tool is average, and the bandwagon is starting to fill up.

After hitting 13 homers in 57 games at Low-A in 2014, O’Neill exploded for 32 big flies in 106 games with High-A Bakersfield last season. There are some flaws in his game -- namely a dubious hit tool, an abundance of swing-and-miss and uncertainty about where he is best suited to play in the field. O’Neill’s 30.5-percent K rate last season was not completely irresponsible given his game power, but if his home run production dips then that K rate would quickly become more unsavory. His .260/.316/.558 slash line can also be downgraded a bit due to the extreme hitting environments of Bakersfield and the California League in general. He stole 16 bases on 21 attempts, but at 5-foot-11, 205, double-digit steals seem unlikely. O’Neill’s overall value will ultimately hinge on his hit tool. If he can hit .240 or .250, then he could be an everyday player in left field or DH.