Shane Baz

25-Year-Old PitcherSP

Tampa Bay Rays

2024 Stats

W-L

4-3

ERA

3.06

WHIP

1.06

2025 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

Unlock Our Projections

2025 Fantasy Outlook

While it seems as if Baz is a major-league vet getting ready for free agency, the fact remains he has pitched fewer than 120 innings at the big-league level and is 7-5 with a 3.38 ERA over 23 career starts. Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery and worked nearly 40 innings in Triple-A trying to regain his velocity before finally returning to the major-league roster in early July. Baz never did fully regain his velocity as his average fastball was roughly half a click below where things were in 2022, but his other pitches performed extremely well as the league hit below .170 off all his non-fastball offerings. It was also encouraging to see Baz work six or more innings in six of his final eight starts as he got closer to the full two-year mark from his surgery and his command improved. Baz should be all systems go for 2025, but this is still a pitcher whose 108.2 innings last year between Durham and Tampa Bay is a career high. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 190

DOB 6/17/1999

Drafted 1st Rd 2017

Picks up fourth win

PTampa Bay Rays

September 28, 2024

Baz (4-3) got the win Saturday against the Red Sox. He allowed two runs on three hits and one walk while striking out seven over six innings.

ANALYSIS
Baz closed out the season with another strong outing, and he ends his 2024 campaign with six quality starts his final eight turns. The 25-year-old made a successful return from Tommy John surgery this season with a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 14 starts. Baz finished on a tear with a 2.34 ERA and 0.82 ERA in his last 50 innings.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2024 MLB Game Log

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Scoring

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Shane Baz generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Shane Baz generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-35%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-31%

BAA vs LHP

2023

No Stats

2022

-41%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.167	212	46	23	31	5	0	8
Since 2022vs Right	.257	224	53	13	53	6	1	6
2024vs Left	.164	167	33	18	24	4	0	6
2024vs Right	.237	152	36	9	33	3	0	3
2023vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022vs Left	.175	45	13	5	7	1	0	2
2022vs Right	.299	72	17	4	20	3	1	3
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-26%

ERA at Home

2024

-14%

ERA on Road

2023

No Stats

2022

-75%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	2.96	0.96	45.2	2	1	0	9.3	2.8	1.4
Since 2022Away	4.01	1.25	60.2	3	4	0	7.7	3.3	1.0
2024Home	3.31	0.93	35.1	2	1	0	8.9	2.5	1.5
2024Away	2.86	1.16	44.0	2	2	0	7.0	3.5	0.6
2023Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022Home	1.74	1.06	10.1	0	0	0	10.5	3.5	0.9
2022Away	7.02	1.50	16.2	1	2	0	9.7	2.7	2.2
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Shane Baz compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.56

K/9

7.8

BB/9

3.1

HR/9

1.0

Fastball

95.7 mph

ERA

3.06

WHIP

1.06

BABIP

.237

GB/FB

0.98

Left On Base

78.4%

Exit Velocity

84.0 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.7%

Spin Rate

2379 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

25.1%

Swinging Strike

11.5%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Shane Baz Prospect Ranking History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September of 2022 and did not pitch in 2023. That was the culmination of a journey which saw him reach the big leagues for good in June of 2022 before going down with an injury just one month and six starts later. The pitcher and the club had hoped to avoid surgery, but succumbed two months later. The 2024 season will see Baz make just his 10th career start at the big league level, and even dating back to his minor league days, has never pitched more than 82 innings in any one season. His career 21.7% K-BB rate and .216 opponents batting average is very enticing, but a 24-year old with zero track record of durability coming back from a major surgery makes him a significant gamble for fantasy managers playing the risk/reward game in drafts. Baz has SP3 upside, but it is highly unlikely he wlll provide enough workload to justify drafting him as such. Set expectations for 100 innings and you should be fine.

If you play in a reset league format, you can stop reading this outlook. If you are in a keeeper or a dynasty league, you are unlikely to see any work out of Baz at the big league level in 2023 as he recovers from a late September Tommy John Surgery. It is unfair to compare the situation to Tyler Glasnow as that surgery happened in early August. That then puts us into the Justin Verlander high bar of returning after a year off and winning the Cy Young award. Baz is an extremely talented arm whose high water mark for innings in a single season, even when combining minors and majors, is 92 innings in 2021. He hsa worked just over 40 innings as a big league pitcher and has given up 1.8 homers per nine innings in that time, so perhaps the long rehab process can give him a sorely needed changeup or maybe even reset his career path to a dominant reliever as he was once projected in his time with Pittsburgh.

Unfortunately, Baz needed surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow early in spring training, and it seems like we'll be waiting until at least May for him to rejoin the big-league rotation. He throws four pitches, all of which get whiffs and all of which are thrown much harder than league average -- his 83-mph curveball is his slowest pitch. His fastball, slider and curveball are particularly elite offerings. Baz dominated at Double-A, Triple-A and the majors last season, building up to 94.1 total innings. He logged elite strikeout rates (north of 36%), elite walk rates (no worse than 6.2%) and elite batting averages against (no worse than .190). There is nothing from a skill standpoint that should give redraft or dynasty managers pause, but this elbow procedure will likely prevent him from building up past 120 innings this season. The Rays will probably send Baz to Triple-A once fully healthy so that he can get stretched out and essentially simulate his lost spring training.

While Baz didn't get to take part in a normal 2020 minor-league season, he did receive chances to face big-league bats during the summer, and the Rays undoubtedly kept a close eye on the prospect at their alternate training site. The 21-year-old hasn't pitched above Low-A, where he cruised to a 2.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with an 87:37 K:BB across 81.1 innings in 2019, but his stuff remains electric and could result in him being fast-tracked to the majors. Baz's command is something to watch in the coming years, as he hasn't finished with a walk rate below 10% in his first three seasons of professional ball. It's also worrisome that Baz remains with Tampa Bay, as the organization tends to ruin the development of potential top-end starters.

The player to be named later in the infamous Chris Archer trade, Baz now carries more real-life and dynasty-league value than Archer. A 6-foot-2 righty whose fastball touches triple-digits with nasty late movement, Baz's development has gone better with the Rays than it would have with the Pirates -- he ditched his two-seamer for a four-seamer and started favoring his 70-grade slider over his average curveball. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, Tampa Bay is arguably the worst non-Rockies franchise for a non-elite pitching prospect to come up in. Most teams would give Baz every chance to develop into a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but the Rays could very easily opt to use him in a role that suppresses his fantasy value. He has never logged a walk rate below 10%, and he will need to improve his below-average command by at least a full grade to ultimately end up as a traditional starter.

One of the better PTBNL in recent memory, it was announced in mid-August that Baz was heading to Tampa Bay as the third and final piece in the Chris Archer trade. The 6-foot-3 righty was the No. 12 overall pick in 2017 and received a $4.1 million bonus, but has yet to pitch above rookie ball and has not always produced results typically associated with high-end pitching prospects. His best stretch was 10 starts in the Appalachian League prior to the trade, when he had a 26.1 K% and 62.0 GB% -- his K% would have ranked eighth and his GB% would have ranked second in the league. However, he made two more Appy League starts after the trade, the first of which tanked his statistics (5 ER in 1.1 IP). Baz's monster mid-90s fastball is a worm killer that misses plenty of bats. He also has two breaking balls with plus potential and a developing changeup. It is a frontline arsenal, but if he doesn't throw more strikes he will end up in the bullpen.

A prep righty with a plus-plus fastball and the potential for a plus slider and plus curveball, Baz's upside is up there with any pitcher from the 2017 draft class (non MacKenzie Gore division). The Pirates landed the electric Texan with the 12th pick and a slightly over-slot $4.1 million bonus, and he was sent to debut as the youngest pitcher in the Gulf Coast League two weeks after his 18th birthday. Naturally there were some early struggles, most notably a 19:14 K:BB and a .289 batting average against. This actually opens up an opportunity for dynasty-league owners, as Baz could have been an extremely trendy option in drafts if he had gone out and shoved, but because his box score statistics were somewhat underwhelming, he could end up being one of this year's bargains. At 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, he has a prototypical starter's frame. His command needs some work, and his secondaries need refining, but he meets most of the requirements we look for in future frontline starters.

More Fantasy News

Six strong innings

PTampa Bay Rays

September 23, 2024

Baz allowed one earned run on four hits and one walk while striking out six across six innings Sunday against the Blue Jays. He did not factor into the decision.