This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Tampa DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Tampa takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Colby Covington (17-4-0) v. Joaquin Buckley (20-6-0)
DK Salaries: Covington ($7,200), Buckley ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Covington (+235), Buckley (-290)
This card was scheduled to be headlined by Buckley and Ian Garry, but the latter was pulled and matched against Shavkat Rakhmonov for the co-main event at UFC 310 a week ago, and Covington agreed to step in roughly a month ago.
Set to turn 37 years of age next February, Colby has been sidelined almost exactly a year. When we last saw him, he was dropping a clear cut unanimous decision to then-champion Leon Edwards in a title fight last December. Covington hasn't fought often, and when he has, he's been mediocre. He's alternated losses and wins in his past six bouts dating back to August 2019, yet somehow, half of those six fights were for the UFC Welterweight Championship.
Buckley, on the other hand, is in the midst of his best run to date. He's won five straight in the span of less than less than 17 months, with three of the five coming via knockout. That said, he didn't look very good his last time out against 41-year-old Stephen Thompson. Buckley was on his way to dropping a decision before finding a one-punch knockout midway through Round 3.
Colby's pace and cardio are legendary. He may not be the most gifted competitor, but he consistently and overwhelmingly outworks his competition, and that is often enough to win. The obvious concern is that his gas tank isn't what it once was at his advanced age, but 85 or 90 percent should still be enough for Covington to compete with top opposition.
On the flip side, Buckley has had cardio issues in the past. He's a huge, muscular guy and those are the type of fighters that often tire out quickly. Joaquin is going to have a massive power edge and should be in firm control whenever the two are at striking distance, but Covington's durability is legendary. We've seen him take massive beatings time and time again. It takes a whole lot to get him out of there.
As has been the case his entire career, Colby is entirely reliant on his wrestling game for success. He's averaging 3.88 takedowns per 15 minutes. He landed 2-of-10 against Edwards, good for 5:04 worth of control time.
The nice thing about Covington is that he knows where his bread is buttered. A lot of guys abandon the wrestling game is the first few attempts fail. Not Colby. He's going to lean on it come hell or high water, which certainly feels like the right strategy here, given his best chance of winning is to tire Buckley out and take over in the championship rounds.
Buckley should be favored given his recent body of work, but the line makes zero sense to me. We just saw Buckley struggle against a 41-year-old. Yes, the power is legitimate, and Colby is reckless on the feet. Buck could very easily turn his lights out in an instant, but he isn't a high-volume striker. If that one huge punch which leads to a finish doesn't land, I can absolutely see Covington outworking him over the course of five rounds and winning a decision. The underdog value here is exceptional. Enough to roll the dice.
THE PICK: Covington
Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Cub Swanson (29-14-0) v. Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0)
DK Salaries: Swanson ($7,800), Quarantillo ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Swanson (+130), Quarantillo (-155)
Clearly in the twilight of his career at age 41, Cub is just 2-3 in his past five fights. Two of the defeats came via knockout against Jonathan Martinez and Giga Chikadze, while the other, his most recent bout, was a split decision defeat to Andre Fili. The wins were over Hakeem Dawodu (unanimous decision) and Darren Elkins (TKO). Swanson keeps himself in great shape and he should be able to remain somewhat competitive moving forward as long as the UFC is careful regarding who they match him up against, which they did here.
No spring chicken himself having just turned 36 years of age, Quarantillo has alternated wins and losses in his last eight fights dating back to September 2020. If that streak holds, he should be in good shape against Swanson. Billy has been as inconsistent as his record indicates. He's had some really nice performances and some really poor ones. I have less than zero idea what to expect from him moving forward.
Billy is about as reckless a brawler as you will find in the featherweight division. He's landing an insane 7.36 significant strikes per minute, but absorbing a ridiculous 5.57 per minute. Quarantillo is going to be in all sorts of trouble against opposition with significant power. Cub had that earlier in his career. Heck, he knocked out Charles Oliveira back in the day, but that came in September 2012. He's more of a volume guy in the latter stages of his career. That said, Quarantillo is so reckless that I could definitely see Swanson causing him issues on the feet.
Neither guy is much of a grappler, with both competitors averaging roughly one takedown per 15 minutes.
If there's one edge for Billy, it's in the submission game. Cub has been notoriously prone to tapping out over the course of his career, with half of his 14 losses coming via that method. Quarantillo may never get the chance to exploit that hole because my guess is this projects as a 15-minute, back-and-forth brawl on the feet, but Billy would be wise to try to flip the script in hopes of getting Cub out of his element.
I don't like this underdog play as much as the main event, but Quarantillo is virtually impossible to trust as a favorite right now. Maybe he gets Swanson to the mat with ease and clamps on a submission of some sort which ends the fight in an instant, but I'm pretty confident Cub is going to be more than game on the feet, which is where most of this fight projects to take place. Billy's durability is trending in the wrong direction and he's too reckless to back with a minus next to his name.
THE PICK: Swanson
Flyweight
Manel Kape (19-7-0) v. Bruno Silva (14-5-2, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Kape ($9,200), Silva ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Kape (-345), Silva (+275)
There's room for immediate advancement in a thin flyweight division, but Kape has been unable to take advantage. He has far more ability than his 4-3 record in seven UFC fights would lead you to believe, but he's essentially lost every "big" bout he's had with the company. Kape had a bunch of success with the Rizin organization in Japan prior to his UFC arrival and he remains one of the better 125-pounder's in the world, but thus far there's been a gap between he and the best the company has to offer.
It's nearly impossible to figure Silva out. This is a guy that begin his UFC run with three straight defeats (one was later changed to a no contest), but has since run off four straight stoppage wins, each of which has earned him a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus. The Brazilian appears to be legitimately improving, but he'll be 35 years of age next March and has fought just seven times since his October 2019 debut. This one could go either way. I could see Silva emerging as a legitimate contender at flyweight or I could see him getting exposed badly once the competition level increases.
That previously mentioned level of competition faced is Kape's biggest advantage. He's fought the likes of Alexandre Pantoja and Muhammad Mokaev with the UFC. During his time with Rizin he went up against Kai Asakura (twice) and Kyoji Horiguchi. On the flip side, Silva's best UFC win is over Cody Durden, who looked awful last week. It's something to consider.
Kape has more power than your typical flyweight and he's active on the feet. He's tough to hit and throws all sorts of weird and creative combinations. His volume has been up and down at times, but he's capable of looking really impressive if he is able to get into a rhythm.
Silva's winning streak has coincided with him changing the way he fights. In his first three UFC defeats he leaned very heavily on his wrestling game, landing at least two takedowns in each bout and nine in total. He's landed just one in his four recent victories, instead preferring to unleash his power. Silva has at least one knockdown in each win.
In order for Bruno to win this one I think he needs to get back to his grappling. Kape's stand-up game is light years better than the likes of Durden, Tyson Nam, and JP Buys. Sure, Silva could catch Manel and put him out, he's done it to other guys, but Kape is going to have a technical striking edge over a three-round fight.
I wouldn't rule a Silva upset out completely because he has a path to victory if everything breaks correctly, but by far the most likely scenario, as both the DK salaries and Vegas odds indicate, is that Kape is able to remain upright and eventually pull away on the feet.
THE PICK: Kape
Light Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (11-1-0) v. Dustin Jacoby (19-9-1)
DK Salaries: Petrino ($9,100), Jacoby ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Petrino (-305), Jacoby (+245)
A winner in each of his first four UFC bouts, in addition to a knockout victory on Dana White's Contender Series, Petrino appeared prime to fly up the thin 205-pound rankings. Then he left his neck exposed in a fight against Anthony Smith in May and found himself tapping out as a -500 favorite. As is almost always the case, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. Petrino has real power and is an aggressive striker, but he's never beaten anyone of real note and his secondary skills are lacking. His fight IQ is also questionable, as we saw in the Smith fight.
A loser of two straight and four of five dating back to October 2022, Jacoby is almost certainly fighting for his job. A pure striker with zero ground game to speak off, Dustin's punches are coming a bit slower than earlier in his career and he's struggling to get his head off the center line. He's always been pretty durable, but Jacoby lasted just two minutes in a knockout defeat to Dominick Reyes in his most recent bout in June. It wasn't a great look. I'm not very optimistic that a turnaround is forthcoming.
In addition to having a bunch of power, Petrino has proven to be a capable wrestler. He's taken down every one of his UFC opponents, including landing three against Tyson Pedro, four against Marcin Prachnio, and seven against Anton Turkalj. All of those guys are pure strikers. You know what? So is Jacoby. His takedown defense is a woeful 60 percent and he has just one career win via submission. Petrino should be able to lean on his grapping if he wishes and get away with it, unlike the Smith fight.
If Jacoby is able to remain upright, it sure feels as if he's going to have to wear Petrino down with volume. Expect the Brazilian to land the more notable blows. Dustin is going to have to land more frequently. He's proven capable of doing so in the past. He landed 93 significant strikes in a unanimous decision loss to Alonzo Menfield last December. He put up 120 against Khalil Rountree in October 2022 and 153 against John Allan in November 2021. In short, it's certainly on the table.
All that said, Petrino clearly has the better all-around arsenal and I expect a big rebound performance after the Smith fiasco. It sure feels as if the UFC has given the Brazilian a soft matchup here in hopes of seeing him rebound. He's the pick.
THE PICK: Petrino
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Adrian Yanez (17-5-0) v. Daniel Marcos (16-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Yanez ($7,700), Marcos ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Yanez (+150), Marcos (-180)
THE PICK: Marcos
Light Heavyweight
Navajo Stirling (5-0-0) v. Tuco Tokkos (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Stirling ($9,600), Tokkos ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Stirling (-500), Tokkos (+380)
THE PICK: Stirling
Lightweight
Michael Johnson (23-19-0) v. Ottman Azaitar (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($8,700), Azaitar ($7,500)
Vegas Odds; Johnson (-200), Azaitar (+165)
THE PICK: Johnson
Lightweight
Joel Alvarez (21-3-0) v. Drakkar Klose (15-2-1)
DK Salaries: Alvarez ($9,300), Klose ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Alvarez (-395), Klose (+310)
THE PICK: Alvarez
Featherweight
Sean Woodson (12-1-1) v. Fernando Padilla (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Woodson ($8,600), Padilla ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Woodson (-155), Padilla (+130)
THE PICK: Woodson
Featherweight
Miles Johns (15-2-0, 1NC) v. Felipe Lima (13-1-0)
DK Salaries: Johns ($7,300), Lima ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Johns (+215), Lima (-265)
THE PICK: Lima
Women's Flyweight
Miranda Maverick (16-5-0) v. Jamey-Lyn Horth (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Maverick ($9,400), Horth ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Maverick (-485), Horth (+370)
THE PICK: Maverick
Bantamweight
Davey Grant (15-7-0) v. Ramon Taveras (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Grant ($8,000), Taveras ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Grant (+100), Taveras (-120)
THE PICK: Grant
Women's Strawweight
Josefine Knutsson (8-0-0) v. Piera Rodriguez (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Knutsson ($8,800), Rodriguez ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Knutsson (-230), Rodriguez (+190)
THE PICK: Knutsson
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for [EVENT NAME] with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
