This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 285 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $750k UFC 285 with $150k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight Championship
Jon Jones (26-1-0, 1NC) v. Ciryl Gane (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Jones ($8,400), Gane ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Jones (-160), Gane (+135)
Odds to Finish: +100
The UFC had been working on scheduling Jones' heavyweight debut for literally years. Most thought it would come against former champion Francis Ngannou, but Francis was stripped off the belt in January following a contract dispute with the company that resulted in him entering free agency. Jones was never not fighting for the title, so Gane gets the call to challenge him here.
Jones last fought on February 8, 2020, so he's looking at nearly 37 months on the sidelines. Now 35 years old, Jones has one loss in his 28-fight professional career, and that was via DQ against Matt Hamill in December 2009. He's unquestionably the top light heavyweight of all time and in the discussion for one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters of all time.
Gane won each of his first seven UFC bouts, the last of which, against Derrick Lewis in August 2021, won him the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship. He fought Ngannou in a unification bout last January, falling via unanimous decision. He rebounded with a dominant knockout win over Tai Tuivasa in September. Gane is an exceptional athlete for a heavyweight. He moves like a man half his size and has shown excellent fight IQ for a guy with all of a dozen professional fights under his belt.
One of Jones' greatest advantages at light heavyweight was his length. He could stand on the outside and pepper his opposition with strikes and not get hit in return because he was so long. He and Gane are the exact same height, but Jon will enter with a three-inch reach edge, not to mention the overwhelming edge in terms of the level of competition he has faced.
Ciryl lost to Ngannou because he couldn't defend a takedown. Francis -- not a noted wrestler -- landed 4-of-5 takedowns for 8:29 worth of control time. That was the difference in the fight. Jones obviously can't match Ngannou's brute strength, but Jon is much more accomplished in terms of his background in wrestling, making it imperative Gane do whatever is necessary to remain upright.
Gane's athleticism is enough to give most heavyweights fits, but Jones isn't most heavyweights. The long layoff aside, I expect him to be able to handle Ciryl's greatest strengths.
Ultimately, I can't get the picture of Ngannou controlling Gane on the mat out of my mind. Perhaps Jones gets foolish and attempts to engage in a back-and-forth kickboxing match and pays for it, but I think he's much more likely he successfully pins Gane to the mat whenever he finds himself in trouble.
Jones has his issues out of the cage, but he's a legitimately great fighter inside it, and I have zero reason to believe the layoff will impact him. He's just a special athlete. I think he wins fairly easily.
UFC 285 PICK: Jones
Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight Championship
(C) Valentina Shevchenko (23-3-0) v. Alexa Grasso (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Shevchenko ($9,400), Grasso ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Shevchenko (-600), Grasso (+450)
Odds to Finish: -175
Shevchenko had her worst performance in years her last time out. Again entering as a massive favorite, she barely got by Taila Santos last June via split decision. Valentina probably deserved to win, but it's unlikely you would have heard a ton of complaining if Santos got the call. The victory was Shevchenko's ninth in a row and her seventh strength successful title defense.
As one would except, Grasso is being given very little chance to win this fight, but she's about as good a choice as any for a challenger in the thinnest division in the company today. A former strawweight, Grasso's career has taken off since she moved up to flyweight in August 2020. She's a perfect 4-0 at 125 pounds, although it's worth noting the four wins have come against Ji Yeon Kim, Joanne Wood, Maycee Barber and Viviane Araujo. Valentina will be her stiffest test to date by a million miles.
Grasso is deceptively strong for her size, but she's almost entirely reliant on her Muay Thai skills to be successful. Her 5.14 significant strikes landed per minute is an exceptional number, but it's volume-over-power. Alexa has just four knockout victories in her professional career, and they came in her first six bouts. Her last one was in December 2014. It's going to be very tough for Grasso to consistently pressure Valentina on the feet for 25 minutes with Shevchenko -- who has been knocked out just once -- not fearing the power of her opponent.
Ultimately, I suspect the physicality of Valentina will win out again. She's averaging 2.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Grasso is defending the takedown at a middling 64 percent clip. Alexa's only path to victory would appear to be outpointing Shevchenko on the feet, meaning Valentina will probably consistently push forward in an attempt to get Grasso to the mat. The two women are the same exact size, but there's zero doubt who is the stronger fighter.
Grasso is talented enough to remain competitive in the striking exchanges between the two women, but Valentina has more power and a massive edge in the grappling department. This pick is easier than the main event.
UFC 285 PICK: Shevchenko
Welteweight
Geoff Neal (15-4-0) v. Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0-0)
DK Salaries: Neal ($7,000), Rakhmonov ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Neal (+400), Rakhmonov (-500)
Odds to Finish: -255
This bout was scheduled to take place on a Fight Night card in mid-January before an undisclosed Neal injury forced its postponement for roughly six weeks.
A product of Dana White's Contender Series, Neal, now 32 years of age, began his UFC run with five straight victories, including a unanimous decision over Belal Muhammad in January 2019. He then dropped back-to-back decisions to Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny before picking up wins in his past two bouts over Santiago Ponzinibbio (split) and Vicente Luque (KO). All in all, Neal has been terrific considering he was viewed as nothing more than roster depth upon his February 2018 arrival in the company.
If Neal is somehow able to solve Rakhmonov, he will become the first to do so. The 28-year-old native of Uzbekistan is a perfect 16-0 as a professional, with all of those wins coming via stoppage, eight via knockout and eight via submission. Rakhmonov has made four UFC appearences, winning each in dominant fashion. The first three came against lesser competition (Alex Oliveira, Michel Prazeres, Carlston Harris), but Shavkat's second-round submission win over Magny last June was a thing of beauty. Rakhmonov looks the part of a future title contender at 170 pounds.
Neal has legitimate fight-ending power, but he can get lazy on the feet at times and get sucked into brawls. A fighter with Geoff's striking skills should not be absorbing more significant strikes per minute (5.28) than they are landing (5.27).
It goes without saying that Rakhmonov is going to have the edge on the mat. He's bigger than Neal and much more accomplished in terms of clamping on submissions. Neal -- whose takedown defense to date has been solid (85 percent) -- will have to sell out in order to keep this fight standing. Easier said than done.
I like Neal and think he has some DK dart throw potential given how cheap his salary is, but Shavkat looks like a stone-cold killer and potential future champion, even if I don't love the price tag.
UFC 285 PICK: Rakhmonov
Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot (21-2-0, 1NC) v. Jalin Turner (13-5-0)
DK Salaries: Gamrot ($8,600), Turner ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Gamrot (-170), Turner (+145)
Odds to Finish: -180
Turner was due to fight Dan Hooker here before the latter was forced to withdraw due to a hand injury. Credit to Gamrot for taking this fight on a couple weeks' notice, and credit to Turner for agreeing as well given the quality of opponent he will now be facing.
Gamrot had a four-fight winning streak snapped in a unanimous decision loss to Beneil Dariush last October. Dariush has been one of the most underrated lightweights in the world for years, and I don't feel the setback has any bearing on Gamrot's long-term potential. Mateusz has an effective all-around game, but at age 32, he needs to try to fight as often as possible in the next year-plus in order to make a true run in arguably the sport's most loaded division.
Turner began his UFC run with losses in two of his first three bouts, but it's been full steam ahead since, as he has now racked up five straight wins, all via stoppage. The thing that stands out the most when watching Turner fight is his sheer size. At 6-foot-3, he is about the biggest lightweight you will ever come across. He's has no issues making weight, however, so 155 pounds certainly appears as if it will be his future home.
Gamrot is going to have to figure out how to negate a five-inch height and seven-inch reach disadvantage. Much like Jones, Turner is long enough to stand at distance and pepper his opposition without the fear of getting cracked in return. I expect a lot of kicks from Jalin in hopes of limiting Gamrot's takedown attempts.
Turner is tricky off of his back given his long limbs, but I imagine that won't stop Gamrot -- who is averaging 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes -- from firing off repeated attempts. Turner has done a nice job of defending the takedown, checking in at 77 percent to date.
It's also worth noting the level of competition each man has gone up against. Turner's best victory in this recent streak is Brad Riddell. He fought Vicente Luque early in his UFC run. Gamrot's last two fights have come against Dariush and another underrated stud in Arman Tsarukyan.
The DK salaries and Vegas odds here seem about right. Turner has the talent to pull the upset, and I expect this fight to remain competitive, but Gamrot has been awfully impressive, making him the pick here.
UFC 285 PICK: Gamrot
Middleweight
Bo Nickal (3-0-0) v. Jamie Pickett (13-8-0)
DK Salaries: Nickal ($9,600), Pickett ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Nickal (-1400), Pickett (+850)
Odds to Finish: -610
These two were scheduled to fight in mid-December before a Nickal injury forced it to be pushed back a few months.
This fight is entirely about getting eyeballs on Nickal -- arguably the brightest prospect in the sport today -- in just his fourth professional bout. A three-time NCAA Division I National Championship wrestler at Penn State, Bo has fought three times, including twice on Dana White's Contender Series. He has three stoppage wins (a knockout, two submissions) and has yet to have a fight go longer than 62 seconds. There's zero reason to believe the hype isn't real, although Pickett is a clear step up in competition.
I mentioned Pickett being a step up in competition for Bo -- and he is -- but nothing we have seen from Jamie thus far would lead you to believe he has any chance here. Pickett has lost four of six UFC bouts, with three of them -- including his last two fights -- coming via stoppage. Pickett is big for the middleweight division at 6-foot-2 and will enter with an inch edge in height and four-inch advantage in reach over Nickal, but his lack of durability and poor takedown defense (65 percent) figure to be his downfall.
I can't think of a brighter prospect than Nickal since I began covering this sport. He's got a long way to go, but Bo's upside is legitimately that of one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. That said, he just turned 27 years of age and has virtually no professional experience, but I think his athleticism will negate the inexperience over the long term.
Pickett had zero choice but to accept this fight, and I'm sure he's getting a halfway decent payday on the main card of a Pay-Per-View, but I'd be beyond flabbergasted if this fight is anything other than another stepping stone to Nickal's potential ascent to the top.
My guess is that Bo looks unstoppable and we're in the exact same spot as we were before the fight started, questioning why the company didn't give him a better opponent and wondering what's next for the uber-talented top prospect.
UFC 285 PICK: Nickal
Middleweight
Derek Brunson (23-8-0) v. Dricus Du Plessis (18-2-0)
DK Salaries: Brunson ($7,500), Du Plesiss ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Brunson (+200), Du Plessis (-240)
Odds to Finish: -210
On the heels of a second-round knockout loss to Jared Cannonier last February, Brunson said his next bout would be his last. He was due to face Jack Hermansson in December before withdrawing due to injury. Brunson won five in a row prior to the Cannonier setback and keeps himself in terrific shape at age 39, so there's no reason to think he couldn't be successful for a couple more years if he backtracks on his original plan to retire.
Du Plesiss arrived in the UFC scene in October 2020 and has won four straight since, including three (two knockouts, one submission) via stoppage. Dricus is a very difficult fighter to get a read on. On one hand, it's impossible to argue with the results. On the other, he appears to have questionable cardio, and his pace slows considerably as his fights progress. That said, he's shown remarkable durability in addition to being able to work his way through difficult spots.
The power edge is clearly in du Plessis' favor. Dricus is the type of fighter willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. Brunson is a threat on the feet, but a back-and-forth slugfest favors the South African, especially when you take into account Brunson's six career knockout defeats.
Both men are heavily reliant on their grappling, landing north of three takedowns per 15 minutes. I've long maintained Brunson is one of the middleweight division's most underrated athletes, even at an advanced age. He's a former three-time Division I All-American wrestler, and it shows in his 89 percent takedown defense. On the flip side, Dricus defends the takedown at just a 50 percent clip. There's a clear gap here in terms of technical wrestling, as du Plessis' background is in kickboxing.
Both men are the exact same size, Brunson enters with a one-inch reach edge, while du Plesiss is a decade and a week younger.
There aren't a ton of underdogs I like outright on this card, and Brunson certainly has the talent to capitalize on a Du Plesiss mistake. I wouldn't bet on it happening, all things considered, but there's enough value on Brunson in his potential swan song to roll the dice.
UFC 285 PICK: Brunson
OTHER BOUTS
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt (12-5-0) v. Trevin Jones (13-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Garbrandt ($8,500), Jones ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Garbrandt (-165), Jones (+140)
Odds to Finish: -250
UFC 285 PICK: Garbrandt
Women's Flyweight
Viviane Araujo (11-4-0) v. Amanda Ribas (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Araujo ($7,900), Ribas ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Araujo (+110), Ribas (-130)
Odds to Finish: +180
UFC 285 PICK: Araujo
Middleweight
Julian Marquez (9-3-0) v. Marc-Andre Barriault (14-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Marquez ($8,000), Barriault ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Marquez (+105), Barriault (-125)
Odds to Finish: -300
UFC 285 PICK: Marquez
Welterweight
Ian Garry (10-0-0) v. Song Kenan (18-6-0)
DK Salaries: Garry ($9,300), Song ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Garry (-650), Song (+475)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 285 PICK: Garry
Bantamweight
Mana Martinez (10-3-0) v. Cameron Saaiman (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: Martinez ($7,400), Saaiman ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Martinez (+210), Saaiman (-250)
Odds to Finish: -135
UFC 285 PICK: Saaiman
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Penne (14-7-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Penne ($7,300), Ricci ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Penne (+195), Ricci (-230)
Odds to Finish: +200
UFC 285 PICK: Ricci
Bantamweight
Da'Mon Blackshear (12-4-1) v. Farid Basharat (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Blackshear ($7,100), Basharat ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Blackshear (+330), Basharat (-410)
Odds to Finish: +100
UFC 285 PICK: Basharat
Lightweight
Kamuela Kirk (12-5-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (11-0-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Kirk (+165), Ribovics (-195)
Odds to Finish: -170
UFC 285 PICK: Ribovics
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 285 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
