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The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 306 card are up, with full fight breakdowns feat betting and lineup strategy, as well as predictions for the entire event.
UFC 306 (aka "Noche UFC") takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
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Ready for Shevchenko rematch
Grasso (hand) will face Valentina Shevchenko in a flyweight bout in UFC Noche at Sphere in Las Vegas on Sep. 14.
ANALYSIS
Grasso vs Shevchenko will be the co-main event of a thrilling event, as the headliner of UFC Noche will be the epic fight between Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili for the bantamweight world title. Grasso will defend her flyweight title against Shevchenko in a trilogy after their most recent bout in September last year finished with a split draw. Grasso became the world champion in the flyweight class when defeating Shevchenko in March 2023, and she's not looking to give up the belt so quickly.
Grasso vs Shevchenko will be the co-main event of a thrilling event, as the headliner of UFC Noche will be the epic fight between Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili for the bantamweight world title. Grasso will defend her flyweight title against Shevchenko in a trilogy after their most recent bout in September last year finished with a split draw. Grasso became the world champion in the flyweight class when defeating Shevchenko in March 2023, and she's not looking to give up the belt so quickly.
Gets surgery for fractured hand
Grasso revealed Tuesday that she underwent surgery to address a fractured right hand, an injury she suffered while fighting Valentina Shevchenko to a split draw at Noche UFC on Sept. 16, Danny Segura of USA Today reports.
ANALYSIS
The flyweight champion hasn't announced a timeline for her return to the Octagon, but posted on her Instagram account that she would be "super ready" for a trilogy fight with Shevchenko. A potential third Grasso-Shevchenko bout is expected to take place in 2024, once Grasso has had the chance to heal up from surgery.
The flyweight champion hasn't announced a timeline for her return to the Octagon, but posted on her Instagram account that she would be "super ready" for a trilogy fight with Shevchenko. A potential third Grasso-Shevchenko bout is expected to take place in 2024, once Grasso has had the chance to heal up from surgery.
Retains belt after draw
Grasso retained her UFC Women's Flyweight Championship on Saturday after fighting Valentina Shevchenko to a split draw (47-48, 48-47, 47-47) at Noche UFC in Las Vegas.
ANALYSIS
What a weird, extremely entertaining fight. Regardless of who you felt deserved to win, Grasso proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that her win over Shevchenko this past March wasn't a fluke. Alexa again struggled with the wrestling game of Valentina at times, allowing four takedowns, but she landed the crisper, harder strikes most of the fight, including a Round 2 knock down. It turns out Grasso was set to lose her title until judge Mike Bell inexplicably gave her a 10-8 score in Round 5. That's indefensible, but Alexa very well may have deserved to win regardless, as she was the better fighter in Rounds 2, 4 and 5. The gap between these two women is minuscule, and this quirky result almost certainly means the two will link up for a third bout at some point down the line. There's really no other option.
What a weird, extremely entertaining fight. Regardless of who you felt deserved to win, Grasso proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that her win over Shevchenko this past March wasn't a fluke. Alexa again struggled with the wrestling game of Valentina at times, allowing four takedowns, but she landed the crisper, harder strikes most of the fight, including a Round 2 knock down. It turns out Grasso was set to lose her title until judge Mike Bell inexplicably gave her a 10-8 score in Round 5. That's indefensible, but Alexa very well may have deserved to win regardless, as she was the better fighter in Rounds 2, 4 and 5. The gap between these two women is minuscule, and this quirky result almost certainly means the two will link up for a third bout at some point down the line. There's really no other option.
Slated to fight Shevchenko
Grasso will take on Valentina Shevchenko in a flyweight bout at a UFC event on Sept. 16, Marcel Dorff of Eurosport.nl reports Thursday.
ANALYSIS
Grasso is slated for a rematch with Shevchenko, who she took out with a rear-naked choke in Round 4 of a fight back in March to become the UFC Women's Flyweight Champion. Grasso hasn't lost a fight since 2019, and she'll look to keep that streak alive in a rematch of what was a thrilling fight.
Grasso is slated for a rematch with Shevchenko, who she took out with a rear-naked choke in Round 4 of a fight back in March to become the UFC Women's Flyweight Champion. Grasso hasn't lost a fight since 2019, and she'll look to keep that streak alive in a rematch of what was a thrilling fight.
Stuns world to become UFC champ
Grasso became the new UFC Women's Flyweight Champion on Saturday, defeating Valentina Shevchenko via submission (rear-naked choke) at 4:34 of Round 4 at UFC 285 in Las Vegas.
ANALYSIS
Unbelievable. Grasso entered with exactly one submission victory in her decade-plus in the sport, so of course she dug up her second in by far her biggest spot to date. The finish aside, Alexa performed pretty well. She was consistently effective on the feet, hitting the former champion and not getting overwhelmed in return. Grasso won Round 1 before Shevchenko pulled ahead in Rounds 2 and 3 with her grappling. Alexa was performing well in Round 4, at which point Valentina attempted an odd spinning kick. Grasso saw the opportunity to sneak behind her opponent, ripped her to the mat and clamped on the choke that ended the fight. The result -- or at least how it happened -- is about as unlikely as it gets in mixed martial arts. This fight aside, Alexa had traditionally struggled against high-level competition. She doesn't have the look of a champion that will be able to hold her belt through multiple title defenses, but she showed in this one she is capable of defying the odds. A rematch against Shevchenko will almost certainly be next up. In the meantime, she'll rightfully go home with a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus.
Unbelievable. Grasso entered with exactly one submission victory in her decade-plus in the sport, so of course she dug up her second in by far her biggest spot to date. The finish aside, Alexa performed pretty well. She was consistently effective on the feet, hitting the former champion and not getting overwhelmed in return. Grasso won Round 1 before Shevchenko pulled ahead in Rounds 2 and 3 with her grappling. Alexa was performing well in Round 4, at which point Valentina attempted an odd spinning kick. Grasso saw the opportunity to sneak behind her opponent, ripped her to the mat and clamped on the choke that ended the fight. The result -- or at least how it happened -- is about as unlikely as it gets in mixed martial arts. This fight aside, Alexa had traditionally struggled against high-level competition. She doesn't have the look of a champion that will be able to hold her belt through multiple title defenses, but she showed in this one she is capable of defying the odds. A rematch against Shevchenko will almost certainly be next up. In the meantime, she'll rightfully go home with a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus.