The Stats Room: Zman's WR Projection Model

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Updated on August 22, 2017 5:14PM EST

After creating a basic projection model for quarterbacks (The Zman's), I've moved onto wide receivers. Truthfully, I wanted an easier task with just a few stats on which to concentrate. The projections for wide receivers stabilize quickly and need to be regressed quite a bit less than the quarterbacks. These projections can give a person a good read on their talent level. The key now is figuring out how each team's targets will get distributed.

These projections have no team context information. They are bare bones for now. They were created in the image of Marcels in which Tom Tango did baseball players.  

As Tom describes it, "... uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey."

  I went with the same approach with just a tad more detail in the weights and regression. The basic procedure was to take a three-year weighted sample, regress the data as needed and then add an aging factor. I did not project playing time, which I'll discuss later.

These projections have no team context information. They are bare bones for now. They were created in the image of Marcels in which Tom Tango did baseball players.  

As Tom describes it, "... uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey."

Compared to the quarterbacks (and running backs, which I've started), the wide receiver stats are not regressed as much. There is more distinction between the good and bad wide receivers. Their job is to just to catch the ball and run. They are less reliant on those around them. That said, here are the categories I projected:

Note: I stayed away from lumping tight ends with wide receivers to see if there are any major differences. I will eventually create tight end projections.

Receptions per Target: A three-year weight average is used with the most recent season getting almost 60 percent of the projection. It was barely regressed and stabilized at 10 targets. Additionally, its aging curve peaks at age 25 and then begins its decline.

Yards per Reception: A three-year weight average is used with the most recent season only getting weighted at ~45 percent. This aging curve is more of a downward plunge with receivers losing about a third of a yard per catch per season. Again, little regression is used with the value stabilizing after just 12 catches.

Touchdowns per Reception: A three-year weight average is used with each of the last three seasons getting even weight. The aging curve is a downward slope from with no upward trend. Also, little regression was added with the stat stabilizing quickly.

I was worried this stat was just a proxy for yards per reception. The more yards a receiver could run, the more touchdowns they got. To see if this was true, I compared the yards per reception to touchdowns per reception and ended up with an r-squared of 0.24. There is some correlation but some guys seem to find the end zone while other can't. At some future date, I do want to compare red-zone production to see if it a repeatable skill.

Fumbles per reception: A three-year weight average is used with the most recent season only getting weighted at more than 60 percent. Also, this value is regressed an insane amount, more than 100 receptions. While I didn't just use the league average, I probably could have.

With the descriptions out of the way, here are the projections. I included any receiver who caught one pass in 2016 in the projections (rookies later).

Note: I used the database designation for positions (e.g. wide receiver, running back, etc). Some players like Ty Montgomery got grouped in here with relievers.

PLAYER	AGE	CATCH%	Y/REC	TD/REC	FUM/REC
A.J. Green	29	65.7	14.0	8.2	0.97
Aaron Burbridge	24	55.4	10.7	5.3	1.73
Adam Humphries	24	67.6	10.5	4.2	0.84
Adam Thielen	27	73.6	12.8	5.5	1.23
Albert Wilson	25	61.8	10.8	5.5	0.90
Aldrick Robinson	29	62.5	12.7	7.3	1.07
Alex Erickson	25	68.5	10.6	5.5	1.15
Allen Hurns	26	55.0	13.5	10.9	1.03
Allen Robinson	24	53.2	13.1	9.7	0.69
Alshon Jeffery	27	58.7	13.7	7.6	0.76
Amari Cooper	23	61.9	13.2	6.6	0.87
Andre Holmes	29	53.4	11.9	11.3	1.02
Andre Johnson	36	48.7	10.8	6.2	1.16
Andre Roberts	29	56.6	11.6	5.2	1.72
Andrew Hawkins	31	61.1	10.7	4.3	1.11
Anquan Boldin	37	60.6	10.3	7.1	0.88
Antonio Brown	29	69.9	12.5	9.0	0.89
Arrelious Benn	29	59.2	12.3	7.7	1.15
Bennie Fowler	26	56.6	11.5	4.9	1.06
Bradley Marquez	25	59.5	9.5	4.4	1.13
Bralon Addison	24	66.7	10.4	6.1	1.79
Brandin Cooks	24	68.3	12.9	8.4	0.67
Brandon Coleman	25	66.8	11.7	7.5	0.95
Brandon LaFell	31	58.6	12.4	7.0	0.81
Brandon Marshall	33	52.7	12.5	10.1	1.08
Brandon Tate	30	63.3	11.8	6.5	1.20
Braxton Miller	25	58.9	8.9	6.3	1.09
Brenton Bersin	27	62.9	10.7	5.3	1.50
Breshad Perriman	24	54.3	12.8	7.3	0.99
Brian Quick	28	53.8	12.4	7.0	0.91
Brice Butler	27	55.2	13.1	8.1	1.03
Brittan Golden	29	62.0	10.1	7.1	1.71
Bryan Walters	30	68.8	10.2	5.1	1.44
Bryce Treggs	23	48.8	11.9	5.9	1.17
Cameron Meredith	25	69.1	12.2	5.3	1.68
Cecil Shorts	30	51.7	10.9	3.4	1.27
Charles Johnson	28	58.5	12.0	4.3	1.01
Charone Peake	25	58.9	10.0	4.2	1.07
Chester Rogers	23	59.7	11.9	4.2	1.07
Chris Conley	25	63.9	11.0	4.0	0.89
Chris Harper	24	62.9	10.1	4.6	1.38
Chris Hogan	29	66.4	13.5	7.5	1.35
Chris Moore	24	55.4	9.5	5.3	1.14
Cobi Hamilton	27	62.1	11.6	8.8	1.05
Cody Core	23	64.4	10.8	4.4	1.08
Cody Latimer	25	60.3	10.0	5.8	1.10
Cole Beasley	28	74.5	10.6	7.5	1.19
Cordarrelle Patterson	26	70.7	9.4	4.0	1.17
Corey Brown	26	56.4	12.0	7.7	0.99
Corey Coleman	23	50.0	11.3	7.3	0.99
Damiere Byrd	24	66.7	10.5	6.1	1.18
Daniel Braverman	24	58.1	10.4	6.3	1.19
Danny Amendola	32	71.2	9.6	7.2	1.45
Darren Waller	25	60.4	9.7	8.5	1.12
Darrius Heyward-Bey	30	49.3	13.0	8.5	1.15
Davante Adams	25	61.8	11.4	9.1	1.08
De'Anthony Thomas	24	71.4	8.3	3.8	1.34
DeAndre Hopkins	25	56.9	12.8	7.3	0.68
DeAndre Smelter	26	66.7	10.8	6.1	1.18
Demarcus Ayers	23	61.2	9.9	7.1	1.13
Demarcus Robinson	23	64.4	10.4	6.3	1.19
Demaryius Thomas	30	61.8	12.3	6.6	1.53
Deonte Thompson	28	63.2	11.5	6.9	1.58
DeSean Jackson	31	57.6	16.7	8.6	1.00
DeVante Parker	24	63.2	13.3	7.2	0.82
Devin Funchess	23	47.7	13.5	11.8	1.21
Devin Hester	35	60.1	11.5	5.6	1.83
Devin Smith	25	49.5	11.0	6.9	1.44
Devin Street	26	52.2	11.4	6.9	1.45
Dez Bryant	29	55.7	13.9	14.0	1.17
Dezmin Lewis	25	61.3	10.4	6.3	1.19
Donte Moncrief	24	59.9	11.1	11.0	0.84
Dontrelle Inman	28	60.9	12.8	6.2	1.01
Dorial Green-Beckham	24	52.0	12.2	7.5	0.90
Doug Baldwin	29	74.5	12.0	9.1	0.64
Dwayne Harris	30	64.1	10.9	8.6	1.77
Eddie Royal	31	72.1	10.0	6.9	0.94
Eli Rogers	25	72.7	11.0	5.2	1.31
Emmanuel Sanders	30	59.7	13.2	7.0	0.99
Eric Decker	30	59.3	12.7	10.2	1.09
Eric Weems	32	66.6	10.3	8.6	1.18
Freddie Martino	26	68.0	11.9	7.2	1.13
Geremy Davis	25	58.9	10.3	6.0	1.18
Geronimo Allison	23	60.4	12.3	7.7	1.08
Golden Tate	29	68.9	10.9	4.7	1.10
Greg Salas	29	59.7	12.9	6.3	1.14
Griff Whalen	27	66.9	10.4	5.4	1.76
Harry Douglas	33	58.7	11.1	4.3	1.20
Isaac Fruechte	26	61.3	10.4	6.3	1.19
Isaiah Burse	26	52.3	10.4	6.3	1.28
J.D. McKissic	24	66.9	10.0	5.9	1.17
J.J. Nelson	25	50.3	15.1	10.4	1.68
Jaelen Strong	23	61.1	10.2	7.7	1.05
Jakeem Grant	25	61.3	10.4	6.3	1.80
Jalin Marshall	22	64.5	10.6	8.2	2.22
James Wright	26	64.4	10.1	4.3	1.10
Jamison Crowder	24	70.8	11.2	6.6	1.32
Jared Abbrederis	27	56.5	10.6	4.4	1.13
Jarius Wright	28	69.4	11.3	4.0	1.23
Jaron Brown	27	54.7	11.8	7.2	1.05
Jarvis Landry	25	71.5	10.5	4.3	1.40
Je'Ron Hamm	25	62.3	10.1	6.0	1.18
Jeff Janis	26	57.3	11.8	8.6	1.09
Jeremy Butler	26	70.5	10.6	3.3	1.08
Jeremy Kerley	29	57.4	10.1	5.0	1.22
Jeremy Maclin	29	63.5	12.5	8.2	0.92
Jeremy Ross	29	69.5	10.7	5.7	2.12
Jermaine Kearse	27	56.3	12.8	5.8	0.83
John Brown	27	58.8	13.4	8.0	1.00
Johnny Holton	26	59.5	10.8	6.0	1.78
Jordan Matthews	25	65.9	11.2	7.7	0.85
Jordan Norwood	31	61.3	10.1	3.9	2.51
Jordan Payton	24	60.2	10.1	6.1	1.18
Jordan Taylor	25	65.3	11.2	7.9	1.64
Jordy Nelson	32	63.2	13.0	12.1	1.07
Josh Bellamy	28	55.7	11.9	6.8	1.01
Josh Doctson	25	57.1	11.9	6.0	1.18
Josh Huff	26	67.3	9.8	6.9	1.08
Julian Edelman	31	63.4	10.6	4.7	1.40
Julio Jones	28	67.1	14.5	6.3	0.75
Justin Hardy	26	65.7	9.7	7.7	1.00
Justin Hunter	26	55.6	13.4	10.1	1.03
Kalif Raymond	23	57.9	10.4	6.3	1.80
Kamar Aiken	28	61.4	11.4	7.0	1.05
Kasen Williams	25	62.4	10.3	6.1	1.19
Keenan Allen	25	72.3	10.2	5.2	1.28
Keith Mumphery	25	60.3	9.2	3.8	1.07
Kelvin Benjamin	26	55.8	13.4	10.1	1.30
Kendall Wright	28	64.9	11.9	8.6	0.96
Kenny Britt	29	59.8	14.5	6.6	1.15
Kenny Stills	25	56.0	14.6	9.8	0.85
Keshawn Martin	27	63.2	11.2	6.1	1.94
Kevin White	25	57.8	10.0	4.2	1.07
Laquon Treadwell	22	59.7	10.5	6.1	1.18
Larry Fitzgerald	34	68.2	10.2	5.6	1.22
Leonte Carroo	23	61.1	10.2	8.1	1.17
Logan Paulsen	30	54.9	9.0	6.1	1.24
Lucky Whitehead	25	71.3	9.8	5.1	2.03
Malcolm Mitchell	25	67.1	11.2	8.0	0.96
Marc Mariani	30	65.3	11.4	4.0	1.40
Mario Alford	25	65.8	10.5	6.1	1.19
Markus Wheaton	26	59.0	13.1	7.1	0.99
Marqise Lee	26	60.1	12.1	4.5	1.23
Marquess Wilson	25	58.9	12.8	5.6	1.03
Marquise Goodwin	27	48.1	12.4	7.4	1.01
Marvin Jones	27	58.8	13.8	6.0	0.77
Matthew Slater	32	57.2	10.4	6.3	1.80
Maurice Harris	25	66.2	9.8	5.2	1.13
Michael Campanaro	26	67.2	10.3	6.1	1.16
Michael Crabtree	30	61.3	10.6	7.9	0.64
Michael Floyd	28	53.6	14.0	11.5	0.89
Michael Thomas	24	76.0	11.6	8.3	1.54
Michael Thomas	24	54.5	10.5	5.9	1.77
Mike Evans	24	56.5	14.0	10.2	0.64
Mike Wallace	31	59.9	12.6	8.0	0.79
Mohamed Sanu	28	70.1	11.4	6.1	1.17
Nelson Agholor	24	55.5	10.5	5.3	1.85
Nick Williams	27	67.9	10.1	7.1	1.10
Odell Beckham Jr.	25	63.0	13.4	11.0	0.95
Paul McRoberts	25	66.8	10.2	6.1	1.18
Paul Richardson	25	63.6	11.6	5.5	1.01
Paul Turner	24	65.2	11.2	5.1	1.13
Percy Harvin	29	63.9	9.8	3.8	1.15
Pharoh Cooper	22	67.9	9.3	4.6	1.10
Phillip Dorsett	24	56.8	13.1	5.8	1.19
Pierre Garcon	31	67.0	11.4	5.2	0.68
Quan Bray	24	66.9	10.5	5.9	1.17
Quincy Enunwa	25	56.7	13.3	5.1	0.84
Quinton Patton	27	59.1	11.2	3.0	0.97
Randall Cobb	27	69.8	11.3	9.1	0.76
Rashad Greene	25	61.1	8.1	6.9	1.66
Rashad Ross	27	66.4	12.1	6.9	1.15
Rashard Higgins	23	59.1	10.7	5.5	1.15
Ricardo Louis	23	55.6	10.6	4.3	1.07
Rishard Matthews	28	63.6	13.4	10.5	1.17
Robby Anderson	24	57.1	12.3	5.3	1.43
Robert Woods	25	65.6	11.0	5.3	1.05
Rod Streater	29	66.8	10.1	7.9	1.06
Roger Lewis	24	50.9	11.0	9.4	1.14
Russell Shepard	27	58.6	12.2	7.6	1.03
Ryan Grant	27	55.0	10.2	5.5	1.05
Sammie Coates	24	49.6	15.2	6.6	1.04
Sammy Watkins	24	58.8	14.7	9.7	0.91
Seth DeValve	24	70.6	10.9	8.8	1.12
Seth Roberts	26	55.0	11.4	11.0	0.90
Shane Wynn	25	60.3	10.6	6.1	1.18
Stefon Diggs	24	72.1	11.1	4.9	0.71
Sterling Shepard	23	63.5	10.2	9.6	0.85
Steve Smith	38	58.2	12.1	6.6	0.78
TJ Jones	25	52.3	11.8	6.3	1.40
Tajae Sharpe	23	53.2	11.6	5.4	0.95
Tanner McEvoy	24	67.3	11.6	9.0	1.13
Tavarres King	27	60.0	12.3	7.4	1.15
Tavon Austin	26	59.4	8.8	5.4	1.56
Taylor Gabriel	26	65.4	13.6	6.0	1.07
Ted Ginn	32	53.1	13.6	10.4	1.64
Terrance Williams	28	65.2	14.1	10.6	1.23
Terrelle Pryor	28	55.8	12.3	5.2	0.81
Tommylee Lewis	25	65.0	10.4	5.3	1.14
Tony Lippett	25	64.7	10.4	6.3	1.19
Tony Washington	27	66.6	10.3	6.1	1.18
Torrey Smith	28	50.7	14.5	14.4	0.94
Travis Benjamin	28	59.4	13.4	8.0	2.40
Trevor Davis	24	58.8	10.1	8.1	1.77
Trey Burton	26	64.0	9.6	4.2	0.96
T.Y. Hilton	28	58.8	15.1	6.7	0.70
Ty Montgomery	24	77.8	8.6	3.9	1.32
Tyler Boyd	23	67.4	10.7	3.5	1.35
Tyler Lockett	25	67.4	12.7	6.9	1.06
Tyreek Hill	23	73.1	9.7	8.1	1.31
Tyrell Williams	25	59.8	14.1	9.1	0.83
Victor Cruz	31	56.6	13.0	4.0	1.41
Vince Mayle	26	62.9	10.4	6.3	1.19
Vincent Jackson	34	49.3	13.1	4.4	1.02
Walter Powell	26	60.6	10.2	4.6	1.18
Wendall Williams	27	62.9	11.4	5.7	1.16
Will Fuller	23	55.4	11.6	4.6	0.90
Willie Snead	25	70.2	12.3	4.9	1.09

The key to the preceding table is matching up the talented wideouts with potential targets.

Here the receivers ranked as if they each were to get 150 targets this season. I used the following non-PPR scoring to rank them.

• Passing yard: 0.04 points
 • Passing touchdown: 4 points 
• Rushing yard: 0.1 points

• Rushing touchdown: 6 points 
• Turnover: -2 points

PLAYER	TARGETS	REC	YARDS	TD	FUM	PTS (NON-PPR)
Terrance Williams	150	97.8	1375	10.4	1.2	198
Doug Baldwin	150	111.8	1344	10.2	0.7	194
Jordy Nelson	150	94.8	1234	11.5	1.0	190
Odell Beckham Jr.	150	94.4	1269	10.4	0.9	187
DeSean Jackson	150	86.4	1438	7.4	0.9	186
Michael Thomas	150	114.1	1326	9.5	1.8	186
Rishard Matthews	150	95.4	1281	10.0	1.1	186
Antonio Brown	150	104.9	1310	9.5	0.9	186
Dez Bryant	150	83.6	1160	11.7	1.0	184
A.J. Green	150	98.5	1374	8.1	1.0	184
Julio Jones	150	100.7	1462	6.3	0.8	183
Brandin Cooks	150	102.4	1324	8.6	0.7	183
Sammy Watkins	150	88.2	1294	8.5	0.8	179
Chris Hogan	150	99.6	1343	7.4	1.3	176
Adam Thielen	150	110.4	1414	6.1	1.4	175
Torrey Smith	150	76.0	1104	11.0	0.7	175
Tyrell Williams	150	89.7	1269	8.2	0.7	174
Randall Cobb	150	104.6	1179	9.5	0.8	173
Kenny Stills	150	84.0	1228	8.2	0.7	170
Mike Evans	150	84.8	1184	8.6	0.5	169
Seth DeValve	150	105.9	1153	9.3	1.2	169
Tanner McEvoy	150	101.0	1167	9.1	1.1	169
Tyler Lockett	150	101.1	1281	6.9	1.1	168
T.Y. Hilton	150	88.2	1333	5.9	0.6	167
Michael Floyd	150	80.3	1128	9.2	0.7	167
Taylor Gabriel	150	98.1	1333	5.9	1.1	167
Cole Beasley	150	111.7	1184	8.4	1.3	166
DeVante Parker	150	94.8	1261	6.8	0.8	165
Eric Decker	150	89.0	1129	9.0	1.0	165
Jeremy Maclin	150	95.3	1196	7.8	0.9	165
Kendall Wright	150	97.4	1162	8.3	0.9	164
Kenny Britt	150	89.7	1303	6.0	1.0	164
Freddie Martino	150	102.0	1218	7.3	1.2	164
Allen Hurns	150	82.5	1111	9.0	0.8	163
Justin Hunter	150	83.4	1120	8.4	0.9	161
Kelvin Benjamin	150	83.7	1118	8.4	1.1	160
Brandon Coleman	150	100.1	1169	7.5	1.0	160
Rashad Ross	150	99.6	1210	6.9	1.1	160
Alshon Jeffery	150	88.0	1206	6.7	0.7	159
Malcolm Mitchell	150	100.7	1131	8.0	1.0	159
John Brown	150	88.2	1186	7.0	0.9	159
J.J. Nelson	150	75.5	1137	7.9	1.3	158
Travis Benjamin	150	89.2	1199	7.1	2.1	158
Willie Snead	150	105.2	1299	5.1	1.1	158
Aldrick Robinson	150	93.7	1187	6.9	1.0	158
Amari Cooper	150	92.8	1227	6.1	0.8	158
Donte Moncrief	150	89.9	999	9.9	0.8	158
Jamison Crowder	150	106.2	1184	7.0	1.4	157
Tyreek Hill	150	109.7	1068	8.9	1.4	157
Mohamed Sanu	150	105.1	1202	6.4	1.2	156
Ted Ginn	150	79.7	1083	8.3	1.3	156
Cameron Meredith	150	103.7	1261	5.5	1.7	155
Cobi Hamilton	150	93.1	1080	8.2	1.0	155
Mike Wallace	150	89.9	1130	7.2	0.7	155
Jordan Matthews	150	98.8	1108	7.6	0.8	155
Davante Adams	150	92.6	1057	8.4	1.0	154
Emmanuel Sanders	150	89.6	1180	6.3	0.9	154
Jordan Taylor	150	98.0	1100	7.7	1.6	153
Marvin Jones	150	88.3	1223	5.3	0.7	153
Markus Wheaton	150	88.6	1164	6.3	0.9	152
Eric Weems	150	99.9	1026	8.6	1.2	152
Eddie Royal	150	108.2	1087	7.5	1.0	151
Dwayne Harris	150	96.2	1049	8.3	1.7	151
Geronimo Allison	150	90.6	1112	7.0	1.0	151
Sterling Shepard	150	95.2	973	9.2	0.8	151
Eli Rogers	150	109.1	1195	5.7	1.4	151
Allen Robinson	150	79.8	1050	7.8	0.5	150
Stefon Diggs	150	108.2	1199	5.3	0.8	150
Dontrelle Inman	150	91.3	1168	5.7	0.9	149
Tavarres King	150	90.0	1107	6.6	1.0	148
Arrelious Benn	150	88.8	1091	6.8	1.0	148
Andre Holmes	150	80.1	950	9.1	0.8	148
Demaryius Thomas	150	92.7	1136	6.2	1.4	148
Greg Salas	150	89.6	1158	5.6	1.0	147
Rod Streater	150	100.2	1017	7.9	1.1	147
Brice Butler	150	82.8	1081	6.7	0.9	147
Brandon Tate	150	95.0	1117	6.2	1.1	147
Seth Roberts	150	82.5	938	9.0	0.7	147
Russell Shepard	150	88.0	1076	6.7	0.9	146
Jalin Marshall	150	96.7	1029	7.9	2.1	146
Danny Amendola	150	106.8	1024	7.7	1.6	146
DeAndre Hopkins	150	85.3	1094	6.2	0.6	145
Devin Funchess	150	71.5	964	8.5	0.9	145
Pierre Garcon	150	100.6	1151	5.2	0.7	145
Deonte Thompson	150	94.8	1088	6.5	1.5	145
Brandon Marshall	150	79.0	984	8.0	0.8	145
Brandon LaFell	150	87.9	1091	6.1	0.7	145
Jeff Janis	150	86.0	1012	7.4	0.9	144
Nick Williams	150	101.8	1028	7.2	1.1	144
Jeremy Ross	150	104.3	1119	5.9	2.2	143
DeAndre Smelter	150	100.1	1080	6.1	1.2	142
Keenan Allen	150	108.4	1107	5.6	1.4	141
Kamar Aiken	150	92.0	1046	6.4	1.0	141
Sammie Coates	150	74.4	1127	4.9	0.8	141
Marquess Wilson	150	88.3	1129	4.9	0.9	141
Paul Richardson	150	95.4	1105	5.3	1.0	140
Golden Tate	150	103.3	1131	4.9	1.1	140
Jarius Wright	150	104.1	1175	4.2	1.3	140
Damiere Byrd	150	100.0	1054	6.1	1.2	140
Alex Erickson	150	102.8	1085	5.6	1.2	140
Michael Crabtree	150	91.9	970	7.3	0.6	139
Corey Brown	150	84.6	1017	6.5	0.8	139
Michael Campanaro	150	100.9	1042	6.2	1.2	139
Phillip Dorsett	150	85.3	1113	4.9	1.0	139
Josh Huff	150	100.9	993	6.9	1.1	139
Steve Smith	150	87.3	1054	5.8	0.7	139
Justin Hardy	150	98.5	951	7.5	1.0	138
Breshad Perriman	150	81.5	1041	6.0	0.8	138
Quan Bray	150	100.3	1051	5.9	1.2	138
Robert Woods	150	98.3	1085	5.2	1.0	138
Wendall Williams	150	94.3	1073	5.4	1.1	137
Quincy Enunwa	150	85.1	1128	4.4	0.7	137
Tony Washington	150	99.9	1028	6.1	1.2	137
Mario Alford	150	98.7	1032	6.1	1.2	137
Jarvis Landry	150	107.2	1125	4.6	1.5	137
Paul Turner	150	97.8	1092	5.0	1.1	137
Keshawn Martin	150	94.7	1062	5.7	1.8	137
Bralon Addison	150	100.0	1036	6.1	1.8	137
Larry Fitzgerald	150	102.4	1046	5.7	1.2	137
Paul McRoberts	150	100.1	1020	6.2	1.2	137
Jermaine Kearse	150	84.4	1083	4.9	0.7	136
Leonte Carroo	150	91.6	939	7.4	1.1	136
Tony Lippett	150	97.1	1005	6.1	1.2	135
Jaelen Strong	150	91.6	938	7.1	1.0	134
Demarcus Robinson	150	96.6	1000	6.1	1.1	134
Bryan Walters	150	103.2	1054	5.3	1.5	134
Griff Whalen	150	100.4	1045	5.5	1.8	134
Lucky Whitehead	150	106.9	1048	5.5	2.2	133
J.D. McKissic	150	100.3	1002	5.9	1.2	133
Marc Mariani	150	98.0	1120	3.9	1.4	133
Brian Quick	150	80.8	999	5.7	0.7	132
Darrius Heyward-Bey	150	73.9	963	6.3	0.8	132
Darren Waller	150	90.6	881	7.7	1.0	132
Josh Bellamy	150	83.5	994	5.7	0.8	132
Marqise Lee	150	90.2	1092	4.1	1.1	131
Vince Mayle	150	94.4	977	5.9	1.1	131
Anquan Boldin	150	90.8	940	6.5	0.8	131
Jaron Brown	150	82.0	971	5.9	0.9	131
Jeremy Butler	150	105.7	1119	3.5	1.1	131
Robby Anderson	150	85.7	1057	4.5	1.2	130
Josh Doctson	150	85.6	1016	5.1	1.0	130
Brittan Golden	150	93.0	942	6.6	1.6	130
Adam Humphries	150	101.4	1062	4.3	0.9	130
Devin Hester	150	90.2	1033	5.0	1.6	130
Tommylee Lewis	150	97.5	1009	5.2	1.1	130
Albert Wilson	150	92.8	1003	5.1	0.8	129
Dorial Green-Beckham	150	78.0	949	5.9	0.7	129
Victor Cruz	150	84.9	1103	3.4	1.2	128
Trevor Davis	150	88.2	889	7.1	1.6	128
Kasen Williams	150	93.5	961	5.7	1.1	128
Brenton Bersin	150	94.3	1011	5.0	1.4	128
Terrelle Pryor	150	83.7	1030	4.4	0.7	128
Dezmin Lewis	150	91.9	951	5.8	1.1	128
Isaac Fruechte	150	91.9	951	5.8	1.1	128
Demarcus Ayers	150	91.8	908	6.5	1.0	128
Shane Wynn	150	90.5	963	5.6	1.1	128
Chester Rogers	150	89.5	1067	3.8	1.0	127
Cody Core	150	96.6	1039	4.2	1.0	127
Jakeem Grant	150	91.9	951	5.8	1.7	127
Tyler Boyd	150	101.2	1078	3.6	1.4	127
Chris Conley	150	95.8	1052	3.8	0.9	126
Charles Johnson	150	87.8	1056	3.7	0.9	126
Maurice Harris	150	99.3	973	5.2	1.1	126
Je'Ron Hamm	150	93.4	940	5.6	1.1	125
Roger Lewis	150	76.4	840	7.2	0.9	125
Johnny Holton	150	89.3	963	5.4	1.6	125
Laquon Treadwell	150	89.6	940	5.5	1.1	125
Julian Edelman	150	95.1	1006	4.4	1.3	124
Ty Montgomery	150	116.6	1000	4.6	1.5	124
Cordarrelle Patterson	150	106.1	996	4.3	1.2	123
Jordan Payton	150	90.3	910	5.6	1.1	122
Andre Roberts	150	84.9	987	4.4	1.5	122
Rashard Higgins	150	88.6	951	4.8	1.0	122
Bennie Fowler	150	84.9	978	4.2	0.9	121
Geremy Davis	150	88.4	914	5.3	1.0	121
Daniel Braverman	150	87.1	902	5.5	1.0	121
Pharoh Cooper	150	101.8	945	4.7	1.1	120
Cody Latimer	150	90.5	908	5.3	1.0	120
Marquise Goodwin	150	72.2	898	5.3	0.7	120
TJ Jones	150	78.5	927	4.9	1.1	120
James Wright	150	96.7	972	4.1	1.1	120
Andrew Hawkins	150	91.7	984	3.9	1.0	120
Kalif Raymond	150	86.8	898	5.5	1.6	120
Devin Street	150	78.3	892	5.4	1.1	119
Chris Harper	150	94.4	955	4.4	1.3	119
Harry Douglas	150	88.0	978	3.8	1.1	118
Matthew Slater	150	85.8	888	5.4	1.5	118
Will Fuller	150	83.0	967	3.8	0.7	118
Corey Coleman	150	75.0	851	5.5	0.7	117
Tajae Sharpe	150	79.7	923	4.3	0.8	116
Walter Powell	150	90.8	923	4.2	1.1	115
Vincent Jackson	150	74.0	970	3.3	0.8	115
Trey Burton	150	96.0	917	4.0	0.9	114
Percy Harvin	150	95.8	939	3.6	1.1	113
Quinton Patton	150	88.6	989	2.6	0.9	113
Aaron Burbridge	150	83.0	891	4.4	1.4	113
Michael Thomas	150	81.7	859	4.8	1.4	112
Bryce Treggs	150	73.2	874	4.3	0.9	111
Nelson Agholor	150	83.3	878	4.4	1.5	111
De'Anthony Thomas	150	107.1	892	4.1	1.4	111
Jared Abbrederis	150	84.8	902	3.8	1.0	111
Jeremy Kerley	150	86.1	870	4.3	1.1	111
Devin Smith	150	74.3	817	5.1	1.1	110
Braxton Miller	150	88.3	786	5.5	1.0	110
Ryan Grant	150	82.6	843	4.5	0.9	110
Jordan Norwood	150	92.0	928	3.6	2.3	110
Rashad Greene	150	91.6	746	6.3	1.5	109
Isaiah Burse	150	78.5	812	4.9	1.0	109
Charone Peake	150	88.3	881	3.7	0.9	108
Ricardo Louis	150	83.4	887	3.6	0.9	108
Bradley Marquez	150	89.3	851	4.0	1.0	107
Kevin White	150	86.7	867	3.6	0.9	107
Tavon Austin	150	89.0	781	4.8	1.4	104
Andre Johnson	150	73.0	788	4.5	0.8	104
Chris Moore	150	83.0	789	4.4	0.9	104
Logan Paulsen	150	82.4	742	5.1	1.0	103
Keith Mumphery	150	90.5	831	3.4	1.0	102
Cecil Shorts	150	77.6	842	2.7	1.0	98

With the targets evenly distributed, some of the top producers move off their top spots but should return once targets are correctly distributed. Some names stick out, though, especially Terrance Williams at the top (eight spots ahead of teammate Dez Bryant).

Williams tops the list for the simple reasons: he is projected to catch balls thrown his way (65 percent), get good yardage (14.1 Y/REC) and score a touchdown every 10 times he catches the ball. While Bryant goes deep and scores, he's projected to only catch 56 percent of the passes thrown his way.

Another interesting name is Rishard Matthews at seventh overall. If targeted, he could be a productive receiver, but the Titans added Eric Decker, Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor this offseason. While I haven't projected the rookies yet, Decker ranks as the 29th overall receiver. Figuring out who will get the targets will be key to determining each of their values.

That's it for wide receivers. While it would be easy for me to transition to tight ends, running backs are more important. Those are up next.