Donte Moncrief

Despite showing flashes early in his career, Moncrief never quite could put it together in Indianapolis. Nonetheless, the Jaguars, who let Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns walk, ponied up $9.6 million in guarantees to secure Moncrief's services for one year. That all but ensures he'll enter Week 1 with a key role, especially after Marqise Lee suffered a season-ending knee injury in August. At 6-2, 220, and with 4.40 speed, Moncrief has the physical specs to be a big-time NFL receiver, but his lack of durability and consistency (along with Andrew Luck's injuries) have held him back. Blake Bortles is a downgrade from Luck, to be sure, but Moncrief should have one last chance to establish himself in the league.

There's always something holding up Moncrief's breakout. Two years ago, the Colts signed Andre Johnson for no apparent reason. Last year Moncrief hurt his shoulder and missed seven games. The good news is the Colts didn't draft a receiver, and former first-round pick Phillip Dorsett looks like a bust. The bad news is Moncrief, after showing promise as a rookie, has underwhelmed -- 10.2 YPC ad 5.5 YPT would be poor even if he weren't playing with a top QB. At 6-2, 222, with 4.40 40 speed, Moncrief has the physical skills to be a star; and as good as T.Y. Hilton is, he's too small to be a red-zone threat. As such, Moncrief is likely the go-to option near the goal line along with TE Jack Doyle. The Colts' running game is among the league's worst, and their defense is mediocre, which should lead to ample targets for the team's No. 2 receiver.

Moncrief's breakout was supposed to happen last year, but the Colts - for who knows what reason - signed Andre Johnson's corpse, and Andrew Luck got hurt. With Johnson gone, and Luck due back, the circumstances are ripe in 2016. As with his teammate T.Y. Hilton, it's hard to read too much into Moncrief's pedestrian per-play numbers - 7.0 YPT, no catches of 40-plus yards - accumulated with Matt Hasselbeck taking most of the quarterback snaps. Moncrief managed 9.3 YPT and three 40-yard catches on 49 targets during his rookie year, and at 6-2, 222, with 4.40 40 speed, he profiles as a high-end No. 1 WR from a physical standpoint. The departure of Coby Fleener, along with Johnson, makes Moncrief the team's only target - other than injury-prone tight end Dwayne Allen - with red-zone size. Last year's first-round pick, Phillip Dorsett, will see his looks, but at 185 pounds, he's more of a field-stretcher on the outside. Throw in a below-average running game led by 33-year-old Frank Gore, and Moncrief should see a major uptick in volume, giving him a good chance to cash in on last year's promise. Moncrief missed OTAs following offseason toe surgery, but he's expected to be ready for training camp.

Like Jordan Matthews and Brandin Cooks, Moncrief looked like a good bet for a Year 2 breakout, given his skill set and team context. And then the Colts signed Andre Johnson. With Johnson turning 34 in July, and Moncrief flashing big-play ability in limited work as a rookie (9.1 YPT, three catches of 40-plus on 49 targets), that could still happen, but we have to imagine Johnson, who got a three-year $21 million deal with $10 million guaranteed, will see his share of work. Moreover, Andrew Luck's favorite target, T.Y. Hilton, isn't going anywhere, plus the Colts have two pass-catching tight ends and used the 29th overall pick on the blazing-fast Phillip Dorsett. At 6-2, 225, running a 4.40 40, and checking in near the top of the range in both broad jump and vertical leap, Moncrief has ideal physical specs for a dominant, go-to receiver, and he'll play in one of the best offenses in the league. Uncertainty as to opportunity is the chief concern.

Given the demand for big, fast receivers in the modern NFL, it's somewhat amazing that the Colts were able to nab the 6-2, 225 Moncrief in the third round of this year's draft given the 4.40 40 he ran at the Combine. Immaturity and inconsistency in college hurt his stock a bit, but the presence of T.Y. Hilton, the return of Reggie Wayne and the addition of Hakeem Nicks will allow Moncrief to develop at his own pace, and none of the veterans on the roster have his upside. Moncrief will be at or near the top of 2015's Year 2 breakout candidates list.