Exploiting the Matchups: Wild-Card Round Breakdown

The start/sit format I use for this article Weeks 1-18 doesn't make sense in January, so we'll look at matchups from a different angle, taking a game-by-game look at betting odds, injuries, weather and each team's strengths/weaknesses. I'll also include my favorite plays from DraftKings, as most people are doing DFS if anything at this point.

I'm writing this Friday morning, hours before final injury reports come out for the Sunday games. I'll update the article after that happens, and again for the Monday game (Eagles-Bucs) once final reports for that one are posted Saturday afternoon.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans - 4:30 ET Saturday

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 44.5 (3rd/6)  / Line: Browns -2

Browns (23.25 - t-5th/12) at Texans (21.25 - 9th)

4-5 matchups often are among the least exciting because the best wild-card team tends to be much better than the worst division winner. That's not necessarily the case here, as the Texans have a superior QB in addition to homefield advantage. C.J. Stroud was in concussion protocol three weeks ago when the Browns beat the Texans by a score of 36-22 (it was worse than it looks) in Houston. The rematch should be closer.

Weather

The Texans usually keep their roof shut for games, but it shouldn't really matter anyway. The forecast for Saturday in Houston calls for temperatures in the 60s and winds below 15 mph.

Injuries

Browns Injuries

OUT - K Dustin Hopkins (hamstring)

OUT - WR Cedric Tillman (concussion)

OUT - S Grant Delpit (groin - IR/R)

Questionable - CB Denzel Ward (knee)

Questionable - S Juan Thornhill (calf)

Questionable - CB Mike Ford (calf)

Questionable - DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (pectoral)

Questionable - C Ethan Pocic (shoulder)

Tillman's absence leaves more snaps for Marquise Goodwin and/or David Bell, though neither figures to see more than three or four targets in an offense that's been steadily feeding WR Amari Cooper and TE David Njoku (and also WR Elijah Moore to a lesser extent).

Among the questionables, Ward and Thornhill are the ones to watch. The others either figure to play or are backups that won't play much even if they're active. Ward and Thornhill are starters for one of the league's best secondaries, and it'll be a big plus for Stroud if both end up sitting. My guess is Thornhill makes it back after missing Week 18, whereas Ward looks shakier after suffering a knee injury during practice Thursday.

Texans Injuries

OUT - DE Jerry Hughes (ankle)

Questionable - WR Noah Brown (back)

Questionable - WR Robert Woods (hip)

Questionable - FB Andrew Beck (calf)

Questionable - DE Will Anderson (ankle)

Questionable - DT Maliek Collins (hip)

Questionable - DE Jonathan Greenard (ankle)

Questionable - DT Sheldon Rankins (shoulder)

The Texans remain banged up in the two places where injuries have battered them throughout the second half of the season — wide receiver and along the defensive line. They overcame tough injury luck all year, with the first half of the campaign featuring a horde of O-line injuries. 

The good news for Houston is that all the defensive linemen besides Greenard were able to play through injuries in a must-win Week 18, suggesting they should be able to play again. Brown and Woods both missed the win over Indy and now appear truly questionable for the wild-card round. Their the Nos. 2 and 3 wide receivers, so absences could open up a lot of snaps for John Metchie and/or Xavier Hutchinson, neither of whom has seen many targets even when forced to play more this year.

Strengths/Weaknesses

Browns Greatest Strength: DE Myles Garrett + DBs

Browns Greatest Weakness: QB Joe Flacco

The Browns are a tough team to pass on, featuring a strong DPOY candidate coming off the edge and a secondary with five quality starters. There's a crack in the armor, however, as they've already been playing without starting safety Grant Delpit and now have Thornhill and Ward in danger of missing the first round of the playoffs. Greg Newsome and Martin Emerson make for a sturdy CB duo all the same, but injuries may leave the rest of the secondary vulnerable.

Speaking of vulnerable, Flacco kept Cleveland's season from flying off the rails, but he also tossed eight interceptions in five games, including two at Houston less than a month ago on an afternoon that also saw him throw for 368 yards and three touchdowns. While he clearly enjoys throwing to Cooper and Njoku, the combination of a 38-year-old Joe Flacco and an injury-marred offensive line does create some potential for disaster.

Texans Greatest Strength: QB C.J. Stroud

Texans Greatest Weakness: Safeties Jalen Pitre & DeAndre Houston-Carson

Stroud speaks for himself, more or less. His rookie season was among the two or three best ever from a QB, and he did it while dealing with a ton of O-line injuries in the first half of the year and a ton of receiver injuries during the second half. My only two concerns are A) that he may struggle if the Browns commit to taking Collins away, B) the Texans may overuse their mediocre run game and leave Stroud in too many long-down-and-distance situations.

The team's weakness was supposed to be a strength, with Jimmie Ward (quad) coming over from San Francisco with DeMeco Ryans and 2022 second-round pick Jalen Pitre breaking out. The Texans even had impressive depth, but injuries wiped out Ward, Eric Murray (knee) and M.J. Stewart (shoulder), and then Pitre's breakout never materialized. Now they're starting two safeties ranked 70th or lower (out of 99) in PFF's 2023 grades, with a washed-up, 35-year-old Kareem Jackson being the No. 3. No wonder Cooper had the best game of his career a few weeks ago. The good news for Houston is that the cornerbacks (Derek Stingley, Steven Nelson, slot man Desmond King) are much better.

Favorite DraftKings Plays

QB C.J. Stroud ($6,800)

RB Devin Singletary ($5,700)

WR Nico Collins ($7,000)

WR Elijah Moore ($4,000)

TE David Njoku ($5,600)

TE Dalton Schultz ($4,400)

 D/ST Texans ($3,000)

I'm not opposed to a Stroud-Collins stack but also don't think it offers the best value on the slate. Houston's offense actually has been much more balanced than Cleveland's of late, with the Browns essentially giving up on their lousy running game and just airing it out with Flacco, Amari Cooper and David Njoku all through December. I think it'll be more of the same come Saturday but with the Texans doing a better job defending Cooper. 

You probably still want Cooper in a lineup if you have Flacco, but otherwise I prefer the other Houston pass catchers. Last but not least, Singletary might be my favorite play from this game, as he's under $6,000 and coming off a Week 18 performance in which he rarely left the field and took 25 touches. He's an unspectacular player but projects for one of the larger workloads among all RBs this weekend.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs - 8:00 ET Saturday 

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 43.5 (t-4th) / Line: Chiefs -4.5

Dolphins (19.5 -11th) at Chiefs (24.0 - 4th)

The Chiefs won 21-14 in Week 9 when they were two-point favorites over Miami in London. The line for Saturday's rematch might've settled in around three points if not for the Dolphins' key losses and injuries in recent weeks. And now Miami is up against one of the league's better homefield advantages, potentially compounded by some unfamiliar weather...

Weather

The high for Saturday in Kansas City is 7 degrees Fahrenheit. It'll likely be colder than that by kick-off time, making this the frostiest game of the 2023 NFL season (and probably in Dolphins history). Both teams like to chuck the ball around, but they've also displayed strong running games, with Miami's dominating early in the year and KC's coming on strong later on. The Dolphins still probably rely on the run a bit more, at least philosophically, but I can't help thinking the weather favors the Chiefs. They're much more used to it, and have a QB in Patrick Mahomes who has proven capable of passing in unfavorable conditions.

Injuries

Chiefs Injuries

OUT - OT Wanya Morris (concussion)

QUESTIONABLE - WR Kadarius Toney (hip)

QUESTIONABLE - WR Justyn Ross (hamstring)

None of these guys are starters and only Toney would project for a significant number of snaps if available. Toney's potential absence would arguably be addition by subtraction from a team standpoint, and from a fantasy perspective it could help the snap counts for any of Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Richie James. The only sure-thing full-time pass catchers for Kansas City are WR Rashee Rice and TE Travis Kelce.

Dolphins Injuries

OUT - CB Xavien Howard (foot)

QUESTIONABLE - RB Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle)

QUESTIONABLE - WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle)

QUESTIONABLE - S Jevon Holland (knee)

QUESTIONABLE - CB DeShon Elliott (calf)

All of these guys are starters, though Holland and Elliott are listed with injuries they played through last week (and thus figure to play through again). Waddle and Mostert are the big question marks, both in real-life and fantasy terms. Jalen Ramsey, Kader Kohou and Eli Apple are the top three corners with Howard out, so it's still a solid group, and likely backed by Holland and Elliott even if both are less than 100 percent.

Chiefs Greatest Strength: QB Patrick Mahomes & HC Andy Reid

Chiefs Greatest Weakness: Wide Receivers

The Chiefs were thoroughly unimpressive after October this season, but they still did enough to ensure that the best QB/coach combo in the league has a chance to work magic in January/February. I'm not sure how much the November/December struggles even matter, especially given that this Chiefs team has a good enough defense to get by without scoring 30 points. Their passing game was disappointing this year, but everything else went better than planned. If they figure out throwing the ball better, this could end up being one of the better January/February versions of the team.

The problem there is that struggles throwing the ball can't necessarily be addressed by coaches. The team simply doesn't have much at wide receiver beyond Rice, who has been excellent near the line of scrimmage but hasn't gotten much work downfield. The Chiefs got by without Tyreek Hill in Year 1, but his absence was felt in a big way this season, especially with Kelce finally showing his age. After Rice, the safest bests for WR snaps are Watson and MVS, but neither is assured of a full-time role or likely to see many targets even with a lot of routes/snaps.

Dolphins Greatest Strength: QB Tua Tagovailoa & WR Tyreek Hill

Dolphins Greatest Weakness: Lack of Edge Rushers

It all starts and ends with Tagovailoa and Hill, especially now that injuries have sapped any notion of Miami being a 'Dream Team'. The Dolphins need those two to be superheroes Saturday night, as Jaylen Waddle (ankle) probably won't be at his best (if he ends up playing at all). 

Remember that Miami has two starting offensive linemen and LB Jerome Baker on injured reserve, in addition to the team's top four edge rushers. The Dolphins are extremely dependent on their superstars now, and 

Favorite DraftKings Plays

RB Isiah Pacheco ($6,400)

WR Tyreek Hill ($8,700)

TE Travis Kelce ($6,100)

D/ST Chiefs ($2,900)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills - 1:00 ET Sunday 

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 35.0 (6th/6) / Line: Bills - 9.5

Steelers (12.75 - 12th) at Bills (22.25 - 7th)

This game has by far the smallest over/under of the week, 8.5 points south of any other. That's partially because of the weather forecast and partially due to lack of confidence in a Steelers offense quarterbacked by Mason Rudolph.

Weather

A season without any notable snow games may now get a whopper in the first round of the playoffs. Or not, but it'll be cold and windy at the very least. The Steelers probably won't throw much apart from long down and distance or if they end up chasing a deficit. The Bills may be a bit more aggressive with Josh Allen, but they did go run-first for a chunk of December with mixed results and seem a bit more willing to rely on their RBs compared to past seasons (under Brian Daboll and Ken Dorsey... Joe Brady is the OC now).

Injuries

Steelers Injuries

OUT - OLB T.J. Watt (knee)

The Steelers are healthy... except for not having their most important player. They have just one starter (ILB Cole Holcomb) on injured reserve, but Watt's absence alone has a huge impact. Their defense is still decent without him, just not scary. 

Bills Injuries

TE Dawson Knox (illness)

WR Gabe Davis (knee)

LT Dion Dawkins (hand) 

CB Rasul Douglas (knee)

RB Ty Johnson (concussion)

S Taylor Rapp (calf)

LB Tyrel Dodson (shoulder)

Steelers Greatest Strength: RBs Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren

Steelers Greatest Weakness: QB Mason Rudolph

The Steelers' greatest strength would normally be outside linebackers Watt and Alex Highsmith, but half of that combo is missing and the other half's speed rushing may not be as important as usual if the weather gets ugly. The Steelers rode their backfield duo into the playoffs with wins over Seattle and Baltimore, and we could see both get 15-plus touches if Pittsburgh continues the low-risk approach with Mason Rudolph in bad weather. Granted, the Bills know what's coming, and have a good defense.

Bills Greatest Strength: Defensive Backs

Bills Greatest Weakness: None?

Buffalo's secondary has been impressive yet again, despite losing top corner Tre'Davious White to an Achilles tear Week 4 and playing much of the season without S Micah Hyde (who is currently healthy). CB Rasul Douglas has been a big part of that, but now he's in danger of missing the wild-card round with a knee injury suffered Week 18.

The Bills aren't a team with any glaring weaknesses; their weakness is that they aren't necessarily great at anything either. The passing game was better in 2020 and 2022, and the Bills dropped to sixth in scoring (26.5 ppg) after three straight years ranking Top 3. 

Favorite DraftKings Plays

 RB James Cook ($6,600)

 RB Najee Harris ($5,400)

 Bills D/ST ($3,500)

Steelers D/ST ($2,600)

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys - 4:30 ET Sunday 

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 50.5 (2nd/6) / Line: Cowboys -7

Packers (21.75 - 8th) at Cowboys (28.75 - 1st)

The Packers defense came up big the past two weeks, but only after a December slump that saw the Giants, Bucs and Panthers put up 24, 34 and 30 points, respectively, against them. The Cowboys are the second-biggest favorite of the week and have the largest implied total.

Weather

It may actually snow in Dallas this weekend but the game will be played indoors.

Injuries

Packers Injuries

RB AJ Dillon (neck)

WR Romeo Doubs (chest)

WR Christian Watson (hamstring)

CB Jaire Alexander (ankle)

LB Isaiah McDuffie (concussion)

Cowboys Injuries

CB Stephon Gilmore (shoulder)

DT Johnathan Hankins (ankle)

G Tyler Smith (foot)

Packers Greatest Strength: HC Matt LaFleur

Packers Greatest Weakness: Secondary

QB Jordan Love also deserves credit for keeping Green Bay's offense rolling with five/six different wide receivers in and out of the lineup the past month and a half. But I think LaFleur is the biggest factor; one of the best play designers and playcallers in the league, though perhaps not the best with fourth-down decisions, clock management, etc.

Cowboys Greatest Strength: Star-Studded Defense

Cowboys Greatest Weakness: Poor Running Game

QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb lit it up this year, remaining efficient while piling on volume. The Cowboys arguably have an even higher caliber of talent on defense, with DE Micah Parsons and CBs Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland making things tough for opposing quarterbacks. A trip to Dallas represents the toughest test all year for Love and LaFleur.

Favorite DraftKings Plays

QB Dak Prescott ($7,600)

RB Aaron Jones ($6,300)

WR CeeDee Lamb ($9,000)

WR Jayden Reed ($5,700)

WR Brandin Cooks ($4,900)

WR Dontayvion Wicks ($4,800)

WR Jalen Tolbert ($3,000)

TE Tucker Kraft ($3,300)

D/ST Cowboys ($3,600)

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions - 8:15 ET Sunday 

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 51.5 / Line: Lions -3

Los Angeles Rams (24.25 - 3rd) at Detroit Lions (27.25 - 2nd) 

This game has the largest over/under and is tied for the second-closest spread. It's also fun from a narrative standpoint, featuring starting QBs that were traded for each other and two high-profile head coaches that have coordinators balancing gameplans and job interviews.

Weather

Dome.

Injuries

Rams Injuries

TE Tyler Higbee (shoulder)

S Jordan Fuller (ankle)

G Kevin Dotson (shoulder)

LB Troy Reeder (knee)

OT Joe Noteboom (foot)

Lions Injuries

TE Sam LaPorta (knee)

WR Kalif Raymond (knee)

CB Jerry Jacobs (thigh)

TE James Mitchell (hand)

Rams Greatest Strength: Passing Offense

Rams Greatest Weakness: Young Defense

I'm not sure how to divide credit between McVay, Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but I do know that when those guys are all healthy the Rams chuck it around well enough to beat any given team on any given Sunday. They took the Ravens to OT in Baltimore a month ago, and the passing game is further aided by RB Kyren Williams, who provides a rushing threat to defend and also does solid work as a pass catcher and blocker.

The Rams defense, on the other hand, lacks premium talent beyond DT Aaron Donald. A breakout year from LB Ernest Jones helped, as did nine sacks from rookie lineman Kobie Turner, but the Rams still have a lot of defensive snaps going to has-beens and never-weres.

Lions Greatest Strength: Offensive Line

Lions Greatest Weakness: Defensive Backs

The Lions are similar to the Rams in some ways, starting with the tendency to play higher-scoring games. TE Sam LaPorta (knee) figures to be either inactive or highly limited this week, but the Lions still have good weapons and a top-five offensive line. All five starters played at least 12 games this season, and none is listed on the wild-card-round injury report.

Favorite DraftKings Plays

QB Jared Goff ($6,200)

RB Kyren Williams ($7,300)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,500)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000)

WR Puka Nacua ($7,200)

WR Demarcus Robinson ($3,600)

WR Jameson Williams ($3,500)

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 8:00 ET Monday 

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 43.5 / Line: Eagles -3

Eagles (23.25 - t-5th) at Buccaneers (20.25 - 10th)

The Eagles already won in Tampa Bay this year, 25-11 back in Week 3. But a lot has changed since then, with problems emerging on both sides of the ball for Philadelphia over the past month in particular.

Weather

It looks like Tampa should have near-perfect conditions for passing/kicking Monday night. The high for Monday is 72 degrees, with no forecast for significant wind or precipitation.

Injuries

Eagles Injuries

WR A.J. Brown (knee)

S Reed Blankenship (groin)

Bucs Injuries

CB Josh Hayes (quad)

OT Tristan Wirfs (illness)

Eagles Greatest Strength: Tush Push / O-Line

Eagles Greatest Weakness: Defensive Scheme/Coaching

Converting every short-yardage play is a huge deal, but the Eagles haven't done a ton else right of late, losing five of their last six. They did beat a bunch of good teams before that, namely the Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins. 

The defense has too many big-name players to be struggling the way it has, but it's been a problem for most of the season with the secondary, and now even the run defense seems unreliable. The Eagles have the oldest group of DBs in the league, sacrificing speed for experience. It hasn't worked out so far but might be less of a problem against a team with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at wide receiver?

Buccaneers Greatest Strength: Veteran defense / N/A?

Buccaneers Greatest Weakness: QB Baker Mayfield / N/A?

The Bucs don't do anything all that well but also don't have any horrible weaknesses. Pass defense was a problem for much of the year, in large part due to bad injury lack in the secondary. Those guys are all healthy now, so don't be surprised if Tampa's veteran defense puts up a serious fight.

Favorite DraftKings Plays

WR Mike Evans ($6,900)

WR DeVonta Smith ($6,700)

WR Julio Jones ($3,900)

WR Trey Palmer ($3,400)

TE Cade Otton ($3,100)