Exploiting the Matchups: Week 7 Start/Sit and Streamers

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Updated on October 20, 2022 1:49PM EST

Check out my other Week 6 work if you haven't already. Matchups are interesting, and they definitely matter at the extremes, but detailed knowledge of player roles and usage is an even more important part of managing a fantasy team.

Backfield Breakdown and Target Breakdown are two of the best articles you'll find on any site to keep you up to date on role changes, injuries, usage trends and more. The articles are published every Monday and Tuesday, respectively, and both include a look-ahead to Week 5 waivers in addition to all the stats and notes for the previous week and full season.

As much as I enjoy writing this Start/Sit article and Streaming Defenses, it's the time I spend on those 'Breakdown' articles each week that really keeps me ahead of the competition in my own fantasy contests. (They're especially useful if you play DFS or dynasty or are in any deep leagues.)

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Tua Tagovailoa (vs. PIT) — 35% started

Start Over — Russell Wilson (vs. NYJ), Derek Carr (vs. HOU), Geno Smith (at LAC)

In one of the more surprising developments amidst a season full of surprises, the Steelers shut down Tom Brady last week while playing without four of their top five defensive backs. They now appear to be getting some of those guys back, just in time to face Tagovailoa in his return from a two-game absence. The problem for the Steelers — apart from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle — is that their defense has mostly played poorly since losing T.J. Watt.

In between Weeks 1 and 6, the Steelers allowed three of the four starting QBs they faced to post fantasy totals that are still season-highs for those respective players (Jacoby Brissett - 17.9, Zach Wilson - 20.8, Josh Allen - 36.2). Tagovailoa won't join the list because of what he already did to Baltimore, but he has a nice chance to score 20-plus, entering Sunday as the league leader in YPA (9.0) and passer rating (109.9).

Other Good Matchups: Aaron Rodgers (at WAS), Dak Prescott (vs. DET), Jimmy Garoppolo (vs. KC), Davis Mills (at LV)

Running Backs 👍

Kenneth Walker (at LAC) — 79% started

Start Over — David Montgomery (at NE), Najee Harris (at MIA)

Walker isn't without risk, considering the Seahawks are road dogs and he'll likely be subbed out for DeeJay Dallas in passing situations. Even so, the upside scenario easily outweighs the risk, after Walker took on 21 carries (for 97 yards and a TD) and 69 percent snap share in his first NFL start last week. Obvious passing downs were about the only time Dallas played, leaving Walker with a dominant share of the rushing workload as the Seahawks prepare to face a Chargers defense that's given up the fourth most fantasy points to RBs while yielding a league-high 6.1 YPC to the position. Apart from Monday's game against Denver, every backfield to face the Chargers this year has topped 100 total yards.

Kenyan Drake (vs. CLE) — 16% started

Start Over — TBD

There are a lot of moving parts here, with Gus Edwards (PUP - knee) reportedly improving, Justice Hill (hamstring) back at practice after missing two games and J.K. Dobbins (knee) now missing practice due to tightness in his surgically repaired knee. It was that last development that sparked Drake to a 10-119-1 rushing line in Sunday's loss to the Giants, with his emergence rather unexpected after he'd seemingly fallen behind all of Dobbins, Hill and Mike Davis just a few weeks prior. Injuries have opened the door again, right ahead of a tasty Week 7 matchup with a Cleveland defense ranked 30th in both DVOA against the run and fantasy points allowed to running backs. We'll still need to keep an eye on reports coming out of Baltimore this week/weekend, but the early developments hint at Drake going right from waivers in most leagues to RB2/FLEX territory, even if it's likely temporary.

Other Good Matchups: Josh Jacobs (vs. HOU), Ezekiel Elliott & Tony Pollard (vs. DET), Raheem Mostert (vs. PIT), Justice Hill (vs. CLE)

Wide Receivers 👍

Allen Lazard & Romeo Doubs — 72% & 31% started

Start Lazard Over — Christian Kirk (vs. NYG), JuJu Smith-Schuster (at SF)

Start Doubs Over — DJ Moore (vs. TB), Tyler Boyd (vs. ATL), Alec Pierce (at TEN)

Sammy Watkins (hamstring) may or may not be back this week, but it shouldn't matter too much for Lazard and Doubs' snaps/route/target volume now that slot man Randall Cobb (ankle) is out for multiple weeks. If we exclude the first two weeks of the season — when Lazard missed a game and Doubs came off the bench — the Packers' top two receivers have accounted for 40.9 percent of their targets (Lazard - 20.8, Doubs - 20.1) and nearly two-thirds of the air yards (Lazard - 40.4, Doubs - 25.9), both seeing five or more targets in four consecutive games.

They'll now face a defense ranked 19th in DVOA against the pass and 27th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and it's hard to know if it's good or bad for Washington at this point if highly paid CB William Jackson (back) is able to play. Either way, QB Aaron Rodgers is in a good spot for his first big game of the year.

Brandon Aiyuk (vs. KC) — 58% started

Start Over — Diontae Johnson (at MIA), Jakobi Meyers (vs. CHI), Jerry Jeudy (vs. NYJ)

This might feel a bit like chasing last week's points, but I promise it goes beyond that. For starters, the Chiefs rank 28th in both DVOA against the pass and fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, struggling in coverage long before CB Rashad Fenton suffered a hamstring injury Week 5. And now with Fenton still absent from practice, the Chiefs likely will have rookie corners Jaylen Watson (seventh round) and Joshua Williams (fourth) playing the majority of snaps alongside third-year pro L'Jarius Sneed for a second straight week.

There's also the matter of game script, with KC's potent offense making it more likely than usual that the Niners end up trailing and throwing a bunch the way they did in Atlanta last week. In other words, both the volume and efficiency projections for Aiyuk get a boost this week.

Other Good Matchups: Brandin Cooks (at LV), Rondale Moore (vs. NO), Michael Gallup & Noah Brown (at DET), Michael Pittman & Alec Pierce (at TEN), Devin Duvernay (vs. CLE)

Tight Ends 👍

Hayden Hurst (vs. ATL) — 42% started

Start Over — Taysom Hill (at ARI), Dalton Schultz (vs. DET), Pat Freiermuth (at MIA)

Even with A.J. Terrell not having his best season, the cornerbacks remain the strength of an otherwise unimpressive Atlanta defense, while the middle of the field and flats typically remain ripe for the picking. In comes Hurst, who played 81 and 70 percent of snaps the past two weeks after a groin injury impacted his workload in Weeks 3-4. He's seen 25 targets between the four games where's handled a full workload, and he might only need a handful of looks to get it done Sunday against a defense that's given up the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends (without facing Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews yet).

Other Good Matchups: Gerald Everett (vs. SEA), Daniel Bellinger (at JAX)

Sit/Downgrade

Quarterbacks 👎

Jared Goff (at DAL) — 20% started

Start Instead — Jimmy Garoppolo (vs. KC), Trevor Lawrence (vs. NYG)

Goff mostly played well the first four games of the season, even when Detroit's WR group and interior O-line were racked by injuries, before falling apart Week 5 at New England (29-0 shutout) and then going on bye in Week 6. While healthier than they were a few weeks back, the Lions still have wideouts DJ Chark and Josh Reynolds out of practice with ankle sprains, and Chark at least seems in serious danger of missing Sunday's game.

If so, Goff again will be left without a downfield threat, this time on the road against the fearsome Cowboys rather than the types of defenses he beat up on earlier in the year (eight of his 11 TDs came in home games against Washington or Seattle). The Dallas defense is Top 10 for scoring, yardage, DVOA and fantasy points allowed to QBs, among other things, sporting a quartet of edge rushers with three or more sacks and five or more QB hits. Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence are playing up to the standard they established, while Dorance Armstrong already has tied his career high for sacks (five) and Dante Fowler seems to be rebounding (three sacks) after managing only 7.5 sacks in two seasons with Atlanta.

Other Tough Matchups: Justin Fields (at NE), Marcus Mariota (at CIN), Zach Wilson (at DEN)

Running Backs 👎

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (at SF) — 64% started

Start Instead — Kenneth Walker (at LAC), Raheem Mostert (vs. PIT), Tony Pollard (vs. DET)

The Niners have enough injuries along the defensive line that you could argue this isn't all that bad of a matchup. But it definitely isn't a good one, especially if Nick Bosa (groin) makes it back after returning to a limited practice Wednesday, and double especially for someone like CEH whose production has largely come from pass-catching efficiency (three TDs, 7.6 YPT on 18 targets). With LBs Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw often responsible for covering running backs, it's no surprise the 49ers have allowed a mere 4.1 YPT to the position (190 yards, zero TDs on 46 targets). In any case, Edwards-Helaire is coming off back-to-back duds in which he took only nine carries... which is actually the second most he's seen in a game this year. He's also reached 45 percent snap share just once, ceding passing-down work to Jerick McKinnon and occasional carries to Isiah Pacheco.

Jamaal Williams (at DAL) — 19% started

Start Instead — Kenyan Drake (vs. CLE), Brian Robinson (vs. GB), Eno Benjamin (vs. NO)

Between the difficult matchup and D'Andre Swift's likely return from an ankle injury, there's a pretty good chance Williams ends up with something like 40 total yards and no TD this week. The Cowboys haven't been quite as tough against the run as the pass, but they've nonetheless given up the sixth fewest fantasy points to RBs, in part because their excellent pass defense limits goal-line chances for the entire opposing offense. Even with a considerable rest advantage, this is a touch spot for the Detroit offense on the road.

Other Tough Matchups: David Montgomery (at NE), Tyler Allgeier & Caleb Huntley (at CIN)

Wide Receivers 👎

Jakobi Meyers — 54% started

Start Instead — Brandin Cooks (at LV), Drake London (at CIN), Diontae Johnson (at MIA)

This matchup is concerning from a volume standpoint rather than an efficiency one, as both teams want to run the ball first and foremost, and the Bears don't have enough talent to put the Patriots in the type of hole where they'd be forced to throw. Expect Meyers to do well with the work he sees; just beware it might be only four or five targets. Everything we've seen from the Patriots this year suggests they have no objection to the slow-paced, run-heavy type of game that Chicago aims for each week.

DJ Moore (vs. TB) — 37% started

Start Instead — Rondale Moore (vs. NO), Michael Gallup (vs. DET)

I haven't given up on Moore being a decent fantasy starter at some point this season, given his track record of eclipsing 1,000 yards in some brutal offenses. This year's offense is worse than ever, but with hope of returning to the more normal range of lousy if/when the QB and coach are pushed out. Sam Darnold is no savior, to be sure, but Moore did average 5.25 catches for 65.7 yards in his 12 starts last year — much better than what we've seen so far.

As for this week, it'll be P.J. Walker making another start, against a Bucs defense that ranks Top 10 in nearly any relevant metric and has veteran corners Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean both playing at a high level. Per ESPN's Mike Clay, the Bucs have allowed the fewest passing yards in the league to the left side of the field, which is where Moore has aligned most of the time. This matchup is difficult on both the micro and macro level, not to mention the putrid state of Carolina's passing game and the presence of a third-string QB under center (XFL MVP though he may be).

Other Tough Matchups: Robert Woods (vs. IND), Jerry Jeudy (vs. NYJ), Curtis Samuel (vs. GB), Donovan Peoples-Jones (at BAL)

Tight Ends 👎

Mike Gesicki (vs. PIT) — 22% started

Start Instead — Evan Engram (vs. NYG), Pat Freiermuth (at MIA)

The matchup looks more than fine from an efficiency standpoint, but it's less promising in terms of workload given how Gesicki's volume varies with game script. His big game last week was sparked by Miami playing from behind, and even then he played only 64 percent of snaps on offense, with the Dolphins using Hunter Long as the blocking replacement for Durham Smythe (hamstring). Prior to last week, Gesicki had four or fewer targets in every game and had played less than half the offensive snaps in three of them. With the Dolphins favored to win this week, Gesicki isn't likely to approach seven targets (or two touchdowns) again.

Other Tough Matchups: T.J. Hockenson (at DAL), Zach Ertz (vs. NO)