Exploiting the Matchups: Week 6 Start/Sit

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RW weekly composite rankings
• RW Betting odds
• RW Target share page
• RW Snap count page
• RW Defense vs. Position stats
• RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

Upgrade

Quarterback

• Andy Dalton vs. ARZ

15% started on Yahoo, 4% on ESPN

The Cardinals have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, but that's largely a product of matchups rather than high-level performance, as they've faced Jimmy Garoppolo, Dwayne Haskins, Matthew Stafford, Teddy Bridgewater and Joe Flacco. While Dalton may be close to the same level as some of those guys from a real-life standpoint, he's now playing in the fastest-paced offense in the NFL, throwing passes to Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. 

It's a pretty sweet setup, and this should be a game with elevated play volume, as the Cardinals aren't too far behind the Cowboys in terms of pace (25.65 seconds per play, 5th) and neutral-situation pace (26.51, 2nd). Consider it a bonus for Dalton that the Cardinals just lost superstar pass rusher Chandler Jones to a season-ending biceps injury. Jones is the only player on Arizona's roster with 30 or more sacks in his NFL career.

• Honorable Mentions: Matthew Stafford, DET at JAX; Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. ATL; Jared Goff, LAR at SF

Running Back

• Myles Gaskin vs. NYJ

62% started on Yahoo, 62% on ESPN

The Dolphins finally removed Gaskin's largest obstacle last week, putting Jordan Howard on the inactive list instead of in an obnoxious goal-line role. Sure enough, Gaskin scored his first touchdown of the season (from one yard out, no less). He also got three other carries and three targets in the red zone, finishing with 21 total touches and 91 yards on 63 percent snap share — his fifth straight game with at least 13 touches and 63 percent of snaps. There is some threat of Gaskin getting a new obstacle in the form of a Le'Veon Bell signing, but that's more of a concern for Week 7 and beyond. For the time being, Gaskin has a three-down role and a cushy matchup against the pathetic Jets.

• Adrian Peterson at JAX

21% started on Yahoo, 15% on ESPN

There's always some risk with a three-man backfield, but this is the right spot to bet on Peterson if you're playing in a deep league or taking a big hit from byes. The 35-year-old handled 33 of Detroit's 43 running-back carries in the final two games before a Week 5 bye, adding three targets while playing 59 and 44 percent of snaps. Now, the Lions are tied for the fourth-largest implied total (28.5) of Week 6, facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the run (43.4%), 21st in YPC (4.6) and 25th in fantasy points allowed to running backs (25.1). Plus, the Jags could be missing LB Myles Jack (ankle) and DE Josh Allen (knee) for a second straight game.

• Honorable Mentions: James Robinson, JAX vs. DET; David Montgomery, CHI at CAR; Ronald Jones, TB vs. GB; Devin Singletary, BUF vs. KC; Frank Gore, NYJ at MIA

Wide Receiver

• JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. CLE

72% started on Yahoo, 74% on ESPN

Smith-Schuster has been more WR3 than WR1, largely subsisting on touchdowns (three) while averaging six targets and 47 yards per game. The good news — in addition to the touchdowns — is that he's hauled in 87.5 percent of his targets, a huge improvement from last year (60.0 percent) when Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges were attempting to play quarterback. And while his snap shares may linger around 75-80 percent, Smith-Schuster has run routes on 146 of Ben Roethlisberger's 152 dropbacks (96 percent, per PFF), so he's always on the field when it counts.

A matchup with the Browns should leave room for both Smith-Schuster and Week 5 breakout star Chase Claypool to see plenty of work, especially if Diontae Johnson (back) is out or limited. The Browns rank 19th in pass-defense DVOA (10.5%) and 30th in fantasy points allowed to WRs (38.6), with their slot coverage especially problematic. The Colts had six players combine for 124 yards on 14 slot targets against the Browns last week, after the Cowboys put up 180 and three TDs on 21 slot targets in the previous game, per PFF. The Browns finally demoted struggling nickelback Tavierre Thomas last week, but it isn't clear 2015 first-round bust Kevin Johnson is an upgrade.

• Mecole Hardman at BUF

16% started on Yahoo, 10% on ESPN

Hardman hasn't been able to push Demarcus Robinson aside, but it appears the forces of nature have pushed Sammy Watkins aside temporarily, with the veteran wideout injuring his hamstring in the second quarter of last week's game. Hardman then played 22 of a possible 26 snaps in the second half, albeit with only one target (a 37-yard gain, naturally). He also played three of the four post-halftime snaps in 12 personnel (two TEs), while Robinson got only one.

The expanded role could pay dividends Monday night, as the Buffalo defense had taken a big step back from last season even before starting cornerbacks Levi Wallace (ankle) and Tre'Davious White (back) were forced out of action. White could return this week, but he'd likely spent most of his night chasing Tyreek Hill, which would seem to work to Hardman's advantage. Also consider that Hardman ran 61 percent of his Week 5 routes from the slot, where Buffalo's Taron Johnson has allowed a league-high 285 yards (1.89 per cover snap, 8.9 per target) this season, per PFF. 

• Honorable Mentions: Kenny Golladay + Marvin Jones, DET at JAX; Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. ATL; Christian Kirk, ARZ at DAL

Tight End

• T.J. Hockenson at JAX

46% started on Yahoo, 23% on ESPN

Averaging 3.8 catches for 45.0 yards and 0.5 TDs on 5.0 targets, Hockenson isn't quite in auto-start range but could get there soon enough. His two largest snap shares of the season (82 and 75 percent) came in the final two games before Detroit's Week 5 bye, and he now returns well-rested to face a Jacksonville defense that's surrendered 12.6 yards per target on 28 passes to tight ends. Jack Doyle, Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firkser, Drew Sample and Darren Fells all posted their best yardage totals of the season in games against Jacksonville.

• Honorable Mentions: Eric Ebron, PIT vs. CLE (if he plays); Evan Engram, NYG vs. WAS

Kicker

• Jason Sanders vs. NYJ

40% started on Yahoo, 21% on ESPN

After kicking 10 field goals the past two weeks, Sanders is 14-for-14 on the season (plus 10-for-10 on PATs). He's also made six of eight kicks from 50-plus yards in his career, and he should have plenty of scoring chances this week in a matchup with the Jets. Who would've ever expected this Miami team to be playing as a 10-point favorite with the third-largest implied total (28.75) of the week?

• Honorable Mentions: Dan Bailey, MIN vs. ATL

Downgrades

Quarterback

• Joe Burrow at IND

19% started on Yahoo, 16% on ESPN

Burrow gets a second straight nightmare matchup after last week's disaster in Baltimore, facing another top-five defense on the road. The Colts are No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to QBs (12.5), No. 1 in pass-defense DVOA (-19.4%) and No. 2 in net yards allowed per pass attempt (5.4). Even with LB Darius Leonard (groin) and DE Justin Houston (hip) both banged up for Indianapolis, the Bengals have the third-worst implied total (19.0) of Week 6. Burrow should still be serviceable as a low-end QB1 this season, but he's better left on the bench this week.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Carson Wentz, PHI vs. BAL; Drew Lock, DEN at NE

Running Back

• Darrell Henderson at SF

52% started on Yahoo, 37% on ESPN

For all their other issues, the 49ers continue to do excellent work against the run, ranking sixth in DVOA (-26.8%), seventh in YPC (3.8) and fourth in fantasy points allowed to running backs (16.1). Henderson had a big fantasy day last week in Washington, but that was largely driven by two TDs, rather than efficient running or dominance of the workload. In fact, Henderson played 43 percent of snaps and accounted for only 47 percent of the carries by Rams running backs, as Cam Akers returned from a two-week absence to rumble for 61 yards on nine carries. 

Sean McVay was kind enough to give us a warning after Sunday's win, saying Akers will see more work Week 6 at San Francisco. That's not to say McVay should be taken at his word, but it is at least clear that Henderson is part of a three-man committee, with significant risk of a crash-and-burn in any given week.

• Mark Ingram at PHI

51% started on Yahoo, 33% on ESPN

Every week, like clockwork, I find myself surprised at how many people continue to start Ingram in fantasy lineups. He's averaging nine carries and one target per game, and the Baltimore offense hasn't been anywhere close to the level of dominance we saw last year. Ingram's touchdown odds are still decent in any given week, but it's not like scoring a TD makes him a lock for a solid fantasy output (see: Week 4). If possible, Ingram should be benched for all but the very best of matchups. including this week's draw against the Eagles — 15th in run-defense DVOA (-15.2%),10th in YPC (3.9), 12th in fantasy points allowed to RBs (20.0) .

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Jerick McKinnon, SF vs. LAR; Nyheim Hines, IND vs. CIN; Jamaal Williams, GB at TB

Wide Receiver

• Tyler Boyd at IND

69% started on Yahoo, 52% on ESPN

Averaging eight targets and 72 yards per game, Boyd has established himself as a matchup-proof, weekly starter in medium-to-deep fantasy leagues. However, he isn't necessarily an auto-start in shallower formats, and this is one of the spots — much last last week — where benching him is a reasonable option.

Kenny Moore isn't quite on the same level as Baltimore's Marlon Humphrey — the man who shut Boyd down last week — but the Colts veteran does have a well-earned reputation as one of the better slot guardians in the league, and he's allowed only nine catches for 88 yards on 118 inside coverage snaps this year (per PFF). While Moore's presence alone isn't necessarily a deal-breaker for Boyd, things start to feel awfully dicey once we also consider the overall quality of the Colts defense (No. 1 in DVOA , No. 2 in NY/A) and the methodical pace of their offense (29.12 seconds per snap, 31st). The Cincinnati offense, as a whole, isn't likely to score more than one or two touchdowns.

• Deebo Samuel + Brandon Aiyuk vs. LAR

29% and 26% started on Yahoo, 18% and 6% on ESPN

The good news, at least for Samuel, is that the Rams haven't been using Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage. The bad news, for the entire 49ers passing game, is that the Rams' other cornerbacks also are playing at a high level, not to mention all the terrible things Aaron Donald (7.5 sacks) does to offensive linemen on a weekly basis. The Rams are top five in pretty much any pass-defense stat you can find, including No. 1 for fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (20.5).

The Week 5 usages hints at some nice days ahead for both Samuel and Aiyuk, but expectations for the immediate future should be modest, especially after Jimmy Garoppolo couldn't even finish last week's game against Miami. The best shot at a solid offensive performance from the 49ers would be a busy night for Raheem Mostert, who gets a somewhat easier matchup against a Rams run defense that ranks 24th in both DVOA (-1.1%) and YPC (4.7).

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Jerry Jeudy, DEN at NE; Tee Higgins, CIN at IND; Travis Fulgham + Greg Ward, PHI vs. BAL

Tight End

• Tyler Higbee vs. SF

63% started on Yahoo, 52% on ESPN

Between what he did last December and the three-TD performance a few weeks ago, Higbee seems to have fantasy managers spooked that they'll miss out on something huge if they bench him. But there's no room for FOMO on a winning fantasy team, nor is there room for a starter averaging 3.6 targets per game. The fact he's a really good pass catcher hasn't deterred the Rams from using Higbee as a pass blocker, and it hasn't stopped them from bringing in Gerald Everett for a lot of the obvious passing situations. It's time to evaluate Higbee based on the role he actually has, not the one we want him to have. 

Also, since this is a matchups column, I guess I should point out that the 49ers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. But really, it's the role that's the problem here, not the matchup.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Noah Fant, DEN at NE (if he plays); Robert Tonyan, GB at TB

Kicker

• Robbie Gould vs. LAR

83% started on Yahoo, 74% on ESPN

Gould remains solid from a non-fantasy standpoint, but we can't expect too many points from a kicker on a struggling team, especially in a difficult matchup. There are better Week 6 options available on waivers in nearly every fantasy league.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Jake Elliott, PHI vs. BAL

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (30-69 percent rostered)

QB Ryan Tannehill vs. HOU

QB Gardner Minshew vs. DET

QB Kirk Cousins vs. ATL

RB Phillip Lindsay at NE

RB Adrian Peterson at JAX

RB Damien Harris vs. DEN

RB Cam Akers at SF

WR Brandin Cooks at TEN

WR Mecole Hardman at BUF

WR Marvin Jones at JAX

WR Christian Kirk at DAL

TE Dalton Schultz vs. ARZ

TE Jimmy Graham at CAR

TE Eric Ebron vs. CLE

TE Austin Hooper at PIT

K Jason Sanders vs. NYJ

K Dan Bailey vs. ATL

K Younghoe Koo at MIN

D/ST Miami Dolphins vs. NYJ

For Medium-depth Leagues (10-29 percent rostered)

QB Andy Dalton vs. ARZ

RB Frank Gore at MIA

RB Matt Breida vs. NYJ

WR Keelan Cole vs. DET

WR Preston Williams vs. NYJ

WR Travis Fulgham vs. BAL

WR Randall Cobb at TEN

TE Logan Thomas at NYG

K Chris Boswell vs. CLE

K Ryan Succop vs. GB

D/ST New York Giants vs. WAS

D/ST Washington Football Team at NYG

For Deep Leagues (under 10 percent rostered)

QB Kyle Allen at NYG

RB J.D. McKissic at NYG

WR Zach Pascal vs. CIN

WR Gabriel Davis vs. KC

WR Olamide Zaccheaus at MIN

WR Damiere Byrd vs. DEN

TE Irv Smith vs. ATL

TE Darren Fells at TEN

K Graham Gano vs. WAS

D/ST Carolina Panthers vs. CHI

Crowd-sourced Lineup Decision

Each week I'll post a twitter poll with one of the toughest start/sit decisions from my own lineups. The process will be truly democratic, which means I'm required to start the player who gets the most votes, unless there's relevant injury/virus news late in the week.

And please, feel free to drop you start/sit questions in the comments below, or you can ask me on twitter - @JerryDonabedian.