Exploiting the Matchups: Week 15 Start/Sit and Streamers

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Updated on December 15, 2022 4:56PM EST

This doesn't look like the prettiest slate of games in NFL history. The Miami-Buffalo game Saturday could avoid the worst of the weather headed for Western New York this week, but we're still left with a bunch of games in cold-weather cities where it's expected to be subfreezing (Buffalo, Green Bay, Cleveland) and forecasts for wind/precipitation could take a turn for the worse.

Between that and all the injuries we've seen to QBs, RBs and WRs recently, it's one of those slates where we'll need to be on top of things throughout the weekend, paying attention to both injury and weather reports. The trio of games on Saturday adds to the challenge, giving us infinite opportunities to tinker based on rumors of snowflakes or downgraded game-time decisions.

We'll get into some of that below, but mostly the focus will be on stuff that isn't so shrouded in question heading into the weekend. Good luck to everyone who has a playoff matchup or must-win season finale this week!

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Dak Prescott (at JAX) — 68% started

Start Over — Kirk Cousins (vs. IND), Tom Brady (vs. CIN), Jared Goff (at NYJ)

While he hasn't put up a huge stat line yet, Prescott has topped 15 fantasy points in six straight games since scoring only 12.3 his first week back from the thumb injury. He should do well against a Jacksonville defense ranked 30th in DVOA and 25th in points allowed to QBs, playing in one of the five games this week with an over/under of 45-plus (48, to be exact). And while Prescott just lost RT Terence Steele to an ACL tear, superstar LT Tyron Smith apparently is coming back this week (or so said Jerry Jones on Tuesday).

Other Good Matchups: Justin Herbert (vs. TEN), Matt Ryan (at MIN), Mike White (vs. DET)

Running Backs 👍

J.K. Dobbins (at CLE) — 36% started

Start Over — Latavius Murray (vs. ARZ), Rachaad White (vs. CIN), Devin Singletary (vs. MIA)

Lamar Jackson's absence allows the Browns to focus on stopping Dobbins more, but their best efforts might not be enough to get it done against one of the best O-lines in the league. Baltimore has a big advantage up front even if G Kevin Zeitler (knee) misses a second straight game, as the Browns have struggled against the run the way everyone expected when they didn't invest in defensive tackles this offseason (30th in DVOA, 30th in FP allowed to RBs, 26th in YPC). All good news for Dobbins, who took a team-high 15 carries for 120 yards and a TD last week in Pittsburgh after missing nearly two months of action. He says he's still not back at his best, but his 95 percent is better than the Cleveland defense's 100.

Brian Robinson (vs. NYG) — 24% started

Start Over — Zonovan Knight (vs. DAL), AJ Dillon (vs. LAR)

Robinson started the week as a limited practice participant (quad) even after a bye, but so did Antonio Gibson (foot), who took a backseat to the rookie in the final two games before the break. That includes Washington's last game, a 20-20 tie with this same Giants team in which Robinson took 21 carries for 96 yards. He should get at least 15 carries this week — a number he's reached in four straight games — against a defense that's falling apart at the seams after getting by on smoke and mirrors early in the season. The Giants are down to 31st in run-defense DVOA after last week's dismantling by Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders.

Other Good Matchups: Miles Sanders (at CHI), Alvin Kamara (vs. ATL), Isiah Pacheco (at HOU), Damien Harris or Pierre Strong (at LV), Kyren Williams (at GB)

Wide Receivers 👍

JuJu Smith-Schuster (at HOU) — 65% started

Start Over — Christian Kirk (vs. DAL), Gabe Davis (vs. MIA), Adam Thielen (vs. IND)

JuJu made me look bad last week when I wrote him up in the 'downgrades' section, but we're working on our relationship right in time for the Chiefs to pick apart a Houston defense that may be missing its top two cornerbacks (Derek Stingley - hamstring, Steven Nelson - foot). While only one team has faced fewer WR targets than Houston, the game-script issues are less of a concern against a Kansas City offense that likes to throw early and often. Plus, only two teams have allowed more yards per target (9.2) on passes to wide receivers.

Joshua Palmer (vs. TEN) — 21% started

Start Over — DJ Chark (at NYJ), Darius Slayton (at WAS), George Pickens (at CAR)

While he's obviously benefitted from Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing time, Palmer showed improvement the past month and still had a near-full-time role last week (79 percent snap share) with both his talented teammates back in the lineup. No defense has allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers, and the Titans should face even more WR targets than usual this week with their pass-funnel defense facing one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. Even as the No. 3 receiver now, Palmer has a decent chance to make it nine straight appearances with six or more targets and three or more catches.

Other Good Matchups: Michael Pittman & Parris Campbell (at MIN), Terry McLaurin (vs. NYG), Garrett Wilson & Elijah Moore (vs. DET), Joshua Palmer (vs. TEN), Phillip Dorsett & Chris Moore (vs. KC)

Tight Ends 👍

Greg Dulcich (vs. ARZ) — 42% started

Start Over — Tyler Higbee (at GB), Hunter Henry (at LV), Foster Moreau (vs. NE)

It's hard to find a TE matchup I'm actually excited about this week, but Dulcich is coming off back-to-back games with eight targets and facing a defense that's given up the most fantasy points to the position. The problem(s)? Dulcich isn't that good, and Brett Rypien (potentially the starting QB) is even worse. Call it a real 'upgrade' if Russell Wilson (concussion) ends up playing.

Other Good Matchups: Hunter Henry (at LV), Tyler Conklin (vs. DET), Chigoziem Okonkwo (at LAC)

Sit/Downgrade

Quarterbacks 👎

Deshaun Watson (vs. BAL) — 33% started

Start Instead — Trevor Lawrence (vs. DAL), Justin Fields (vs. PHI)

Apart from late-game meltdowns — which mostly happened early in the season — Baltimore has played tough defense this year, ranking eight in points allowed and 12th in yardage while leading the league with 23 takeaways. This game might've profiled as a shootout under other circumstances, but the Ravens have played great defense since a previously thin LB group was beefed up by guys returning from injuries plus the trade for Roquan Smith.

Baltimore's offense, on the other hand, had been slumping even before Lamar Jackson's knee injury, which along with some suboptimal weather (~30 degrees, winds around 15-20 mph) explains why the Ravens-Browns game on Saturday has an over/under of 37. That gives the Browns an implied total of 19.75, and it's not like they are a team where we expect the QB to account for all of the offensive production (see: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt). The other explanation for the low total is that Watson has simply been bad so far, which is perhaps the bigger problem for those looking to start him.

Other Tough Matchups: Justin Fields (vs. PHI), Trevor Lawrence (vs. DAL), Tua Tagovailoa (at BUF), Jared Goff (at NYJ), Geno Smith (vs.SF), Derek Carr (vs. NE)

Seems like all the low-end QB1/ high-end QB2 types have rough matchups this week (vs. BAL, DAL, SF, BUF, NYJ, NE)
— Jerry (@JerryDonabedian) December 15, 2022

Running Backs 👎

D'Andre Swift (at NYJ) — 78% started

Start Instead — Isiah Pacheco (at HOU), David Montgomery (vs. PHI)

Swift isn't on the injury report this week, which might mean a return to playing about half the snaps and getting double-digit touches. Or it might not, in which case he's just an overqualified timeshare back playing on the road against a tough defense. The Jets have surrendered the 10th fewest fantasy points to RBs, ranking fifth in YPC allowed (4.1) and ninth in DVOA against the run. The only way I'd feel confident starting Swift is if Jets DT Quinnen Williams (calf) misses the game AND we see reports that Swift is in line for more work than last week (nine touches). And those reports would have to be from someone reliable, not Ian Rapoport or his ilk.

Devin Singletary (vs. MIA) — 47% started

Start Instead — Rachaad White (vs. CIN), Zonovan Knight (vs. DET), D'Onta Foreman (vs. PIT)

Singletary had his best fantasy game of the season back in Week 3 against the Dolphins when he caught nine passes for 78 yards. Since then, he's averaged 1.9 catches per game, and now he's seen two or fewer targets in five straight. That's a problem against a defense that's given up the sixth most catches to RBs but only 3.7 YPC and the fourth fewest rushing yards.... even more so now that Singletary is losing work to James Cook and Nyheim Hines. The past two games were Singletary's first two of the year with snap share below 50 percent, which means he'll likely split carries with Cook (against a tough run defense) even if the Bills do run the ball more in bad weather*.

*Forecasts for the Miami-Buffalo game look much better as of Thursday afternoon. It appears most of the precipitation in Western New York will be coming Friday, not Saturday, and the wind isn't expected to be bad. Conditions certainly won't be good, but it might not be a mess.

Other Tough Matchups: Kenneth Walker (vs. SF), Saquon Barkley (at WAS), Travis Etienne (vs. DAL), Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt (vs. BAL),

Wide Receivers 👎

Diontae Johnson (at CAR) — 42% started

Start Instead — DJ Moore (vs. PIT), Michael Gallup (at JAX)

Johnson had two of his better games the past two weeks, relatively speaking, but he still hasn't scored a touchdown or hit the 100-yard mark despite playing every game this season. He's also dealing with a hip injury now, and it's unclear whether Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett (concussion) will be under center this week (or if that even matters). The Panthers, meanwhile, have proven surprisingly feisty, winning three of their past four games while allowing 15.5 points per contest. Strong play from their first-round picks at cornerback Jaycee Horn and

DJ Chark (at NYJ) — 23% started

Start Instead — Allen Lazard (vs. LAR), Marquise Brown (at DEN)

Chark is coming off 5-98-0 and 6-94-1 the past two weeks, but that was against the Jags and Vikings, not a Jets defense led by cornerbacks Ahmad Gardner and DJ Reed (both top 25 at their position for PFF grade). Only two defenses have allowed fewer fantasy points to wide receivers, and the Lions' passing attack will have the additional challenge of playing outdoors in the cold after three straight home games indoors. Maybe these new Lions are up to that task, but if they win it probably won't be with another high-flying day for the passing game. Look for Chark to struggle this Sunday and then perhaps bounce back later in the year... unless Jameson Williams overtakes him at some point.

Other Tough Matchups: DeAndre Hopkins (vs. DEN), Chase Claypool & Equanimeous St. Brown (vs. PHI), Julio Jones (vs. CIN),

Tight Ends 👎

Evan Engram (vs. DAL) — 45% started

Start Instead — David Njoku (vs. BAL), Pat Freiermuth (at CAR)

On the one hand, Engram might be established as more of a priority for the Jacksonville offense after 192 yards and three TDs the past two weeks. On the other, he might also be more of a priority for opposing defensive coordinators, including Dan Quinn this Sunday. Quinn's unit has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends and leads the league in pass-defense DVOA, with safeties Jayron Kearse and Donovan Wilson both healthy and productive since September.

Other Tough Matchups: Foster Moreau (vs. NE), Tyler Higbee (at GB)