Exploiting the Matchups: Week 1 Fantasy Start/Sit and Streamers

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Published on September 7, 2023

Welcome back to Exploiting the Matchups, where we'll take a deep dive into the upcoming NFL slate each of the next 21 Thursdays to identify the best and worst matchups for each position. I mostly focus on players likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions but may sometimes deviate and discuss a guy who is more relevant for DFS and extremely deep/shallow leagues.

You'll notice start percentages from Yahoo listed below; this is to provide an idea of how a player is viewed by fantasy players in general. Then we identify two or three guys at the same position that have similar value overall but should/shouldn't be started over our player this week.

After all the matchups talk, you'll find streaming recommendations at the bottom of the page for every position (including K and D/ST) and various league sizes. Here we use rostered percentage on Yahoo as a guide, with the goal being to identify the best starters for the current week (not the best waiver adds in general, though there's offer overlap).

If you've got specific start/sit questions for Week 1, just drop a comment below and I'll make sure to get back to you by Saturday. You might not always like the answer — e.g. me saying it depends on final injury reports / inactive — but I'll make sure to be more thorough than in the past when it comes to answering start/sit questions in a timely manner. Last but not least... Good luck this season!

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Trevor Lawrence (at IND) — 88% started

Start Over — Tua Tagovailoa (at LAC), Dak Prescott (vs. NYG), Deshaun Watson (vs. CIN)

This isn't the week to get any funny ideas about starting Tua or Dak or Watson over Lawrence, who has a QB8 ADP and is commonly ranked eighth for Week 1 (ahead of the aforementioned three guys but behind Mahomes/Hurts/Allen/Burrow/Jackson/Fields/Herbert). Lawrence had five total TDs in two games against the miserly Colts last year, and he then added Calvin Ridley while Indianapolis had a surprisingly quiet offseason in terms of notable additions on defense.

The Colts did trade CB Stephon Gilmore before losing CB Isaiah Rodgers to a suspension, and a few months later they're entering Week 1 potentially starting a pair of 2022 UDFAs (Dallis Flowers, Darrell Baker) at cornerback alongside veteran Kenny Moore. This is a good matchup for the Jacksonville pass catchers too, though perhaps to a slightly lesser extent for Christian Kirk given that he and Moore figure to do battle in the slot. Kirk probably has the advantage there, just not like Ridley has against undrafted guys that have barely played.

Other Good Matchups: Jared Goff (vs. KC), Sam Howell (vs. ARZ), Baker Mayfield (at MIN)

Running Backs 👍

David Montgomery — 47% started

Start Over — Dalvin Cook (vs. BUF), James Cook (at NYJ), Isiah Pacheco (vs. DET)

The Chiefs don't have a dominant defensive line in the first place, and at this point we can definitively say superstar DL Chris Jones won't be playing Monday night. It might be the worst D-Line in the league without him, as Derrick Nnadi is the lone interior lineman with starting experience (he's mostly struggled; five sacks and nine TFLs in 69 career starts) while second-year pro George Karlafitis is the only edge-rushing threat (six sacks, 11 QB hits as a 17-game starter last year).

The Lions, meanwhile, return four starters from one of 2022's best O-lines and have G Halapoulivaati Vaitai coming back from a season-ending injury. It amounts to a huge blocking advantage not only for Montgomery but also Jahmyr Gibbs and QB Jared Goff, each of whom should have plenty of opportunities Thursday night. The two RBs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the safe bets for touches, while it's less clear how involved TE Sam LaPorta will be and how perimeter WR naps will be divided between Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond. There's also some uncertainty with the Montgomery/Gibbs split, to be fair, but it's less of a concern given the combination of talent and matchup as well as the low probability of No. 3 RB Craig Reynolds getting more than a touch or two.

Brian Robinson (vs. ARZ) — 20% started

Start Over — Khalil Herbert (vs. GB), Dalvin Cook (vs. BUF), AJ Dillon (at CHI)

This sets up a potential 'sell high' opportunity with Robinson kicking things off in what might end up being his best matchup of the season. The tanking/rebuilding Cardinals look especially bad along the defensive line, where they've got a mix of veteran journeymen that have mostly been backups and late-round or undrafted young guys. The only hope for a quality starter is Zaven Collins, a 2021 first-round pick who is getting a shot as an edge rusher after struggling at off-ball linebacker the past two years.

This is also a good matchup for Antonio Gibson, but it's even better for Robinson given his dominance of short-yardage and clock-killing carries down the stretch last season. While roles probably won't be quite the same under new OC Eric Bieniemy, it's still a good bet Gibson does more of the pass catching and Robinson more of the running between the tackles.

Other Good Matchups: J.K. Dobbins (vs. HOU), Kenneth Walker & Zach Charbonnet (vs. LAR), Javonte Williams & Samaje Perine (vs. LV), Antonio Gibson (vs. ARZ), Raheem Mostert (at LAC)

Wide Receivers 👍

Mike Evans (at MIN) — 44% started

Start Over — Diontae Johnson & George Pickens (vs. SF), Michael Pittman (vs. JAX)

Evans won't need good QB play or homefield advantage to get it done this week. He's still got the talent a couple weeks after his 30th birthday, and he'll be playing indoors against a thin defense that has only one experienced starter and no first-round picks at cornerback. The seasoned starter is former Cardinals corner Byron Murphy, who usually played the slot in nickel packages for Arizona and may do the same for Minnesota. If so, Evans will run a vast majority of his routes at either 2022 second-round pick Andrew Booth (who barely played last year), 2022 fourth-rounder Akayleb Evans, 2023 third-rounder Mekhi Blackmon or undrafted rookie Najee Thompson.

Brandin Cooks (at NYG) — 22% started

Start Over — George Pickens (vs. SF), Gabe Davis (at NYJ), JuJu Smith-Schuster (vs. PHI),

The Giants are probably right to be excited about 6-foot-2 rookie cornerbacks Deonte Banks (first round) and Tre Hawkins (sixth round) but should probably be ready for Cooks to teach them a thing or two Sunday night. The 29-year-old wideout is back from the abyss after last year's disaster in Houston, and with Adoree' Jackson reportedly moving into the slot for the Giants, it appears Cooks will run nearly all his routes against rookies rather than facing Big Blue's one veteran starting corner.

Other Good Matchups: Jahan Dotson & Curtis Samuel (vs. ARZ), DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett (vs. LAR), Zay Jones (at IND),

Tight Ends 👍

Sam LaPorta (at KC) — 11% started

Start Over — Irv Smith (at CLE), Luke Musgrave (at CHI), Greg Dulcich (vs. LV)

There aren't many formats where we're starting a rookie tight end in his first NFL game, apart from Kyle Pitts two years ago. LaPorta isn't on that level, of course, but he is an excellent prospect in an excellent situation against a shaky defense. The Lions not only have hyper-weak alternatives at LaPorta's position but also lack threats at WR beyond Amon-Ra St. Brown, and they've got the solid QB play and blocking to support three or four fantasy-relevant players. LaPorta might quickly join St. Brown, Montgomery and Gibbs as that fourth guy and will have time to prove he's worthy of steady targets even if WR Jameson Williams returns Week 7 and lights the league on fire.

Other Good Matchups: David Njoku (vs. CIN), Hayden Hurst (at ATL)

Sit/Downgrade

Quarterbacks 👎

Daniel Jones (vs. DAL) — 42% started

Start Instead — Kirk Cousins (vs. TB), Geno Smith (vs. LAR)

Even with his weapons upgraded this offseason, Jones is simply outclassed by the Dallas defense. The Cowboys also made a big move in the spring, trading for CB Stephon Gilmore, which gave them a decent argument for having the best CB duo (Gilmore, Trevon Diggs) and a fringe case for the top edge-rushing duo (Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence). Dallas defeated New York in both matchups last year, 23-16 and 28-20, holding Jones to just one total TD while sacking him eight times. It might not be as lopsided this year, but the Cowboys remain a highly difficult matchup for any QB so long as their defensive superstars are healthy.

Other Tough Matchups: Brock Purdy (at PIT), Kenny Pickett (vs. SF), Jordan Love (at CHI), Matthew Stafford (at SEA), Mac Jones (vs. PHI)

Running Backs 👎

Dalvin Cook (vs. BUF) — 37% started

Start Instead — Jamaal Williams (vs. TEN), D'Andre Swift (at NE), Khalil Herbert (vs. GB)

Breece Hall (knee) is on track to play, be it for 15 snaps or 40. With the Cook of 3-4 years ago, one might overlook massive workload security on account of the upside that comes with first-rate talent. Now Hall is the one with that talent, while Cook is a declining veteran in an uncertain role against a veteran-laden Buffalo defense that allowed the fifth fewest rushing yards last season.

Jamaal Williams (vs. TEN) — 21% started

Start Instead — Brian Robinson (vs. ARZ), Javonte Williams (vs. LV), Raheem Mostert (at LAC)

Don't get me wrong; Williams is a solid fantasy start thanks to his robust workload projection while Alvin Kamara is suspended. Just don't expect much in terms of yardage per carry against a Titans defense that has the league's best 3-4 D-Line in Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry and Teair Tart. No team allowed fewer rushing yards (76.9 per game) or less yards per carry (3.4) last season, with the three aforementioned linemen each recording at least five TFLs and finishing top 25 at his position in PFF grade. Williams will need to get it done with receptions and touchdowns rather than rushing yards this Sunday.

Other Tough Matchups: Najee Harris (vs. SF), Cam Akers (at SEA), AJ Dillon (at CHI), Elijah Mitchell (at PIT), Ezekiel Elliott (vs. PHI)

Wide Receivers 👎

George Pickens (vs. SF) — 30% started

Start Instead — Jahan Dotson (vs. ARZ), Brandin Cooks (at NYG), Michael Thomas (vs. TEN)

Nick Bosa's contract extension erases any hope that this might not be a dreadful matchup for Pittsburgh's passing game. The 49ers don't have dominant corners by any means, but they've still got the best D-Line in the league and even upgraded their ferocious pass rush this offseason by backing up the Brinks truck for DT Javon Hargrave. The Bosa-Hargrave combo is especially worrisome for a wide receiver who relies on downfield passes and routes that take some time to develop, and it's not like the Steelers have dominant blocking

Jordan Addison (vs. TB) — 16% started

Start Instead — Courtland Sutton (vs. LV), Skyy Moore (vs. DET), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. LAR)

Addison is my favorite receiver in this rookie class, but even all-timers like teammate Justin Jefferson often start off in limited roles for at least the first few weeks of a rookie season. That's a risk worth taking at times, just not Week 1 against a veteran Bucs defense that still has Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean at cornerback. As much as Tom Brady's departure and the O-line's decline figure to hold the team back overall, the Bucs still have one of the league's better defenses on paper, featuring DT Vita Vea, LBs Lavonte David and Devin White and safeties Antoine Winfield and Ryan Neal.

Other Tough Matchups: Davante Adams (at DEN), Stefon Diggs & Gabe Davis (at NYJ), JuJu Smith-Schuster & DeVante Parker (vs. PHI), Darius Slayton & Isaiah Hodgins (vs. DAL)

Tight Ends 👎

Tyler Higbee (at SEA) — 31% started

Start Instead — David Njoku (vs. CIN), Pat Freiermuth (vs. SF), Cole Kmet (vs. GB)

Higbee and Van Jefferson, among others, get big boosts in target projections with Cooper Kupp (hamstring) and his ~30 percent share officially out at least one game. Some of the production will go elsewhere, sure, but a lot of it simply disappears when an offense is as dependent on one receiver as the Rams are on Kupp. And don't expect the Seahawks to rank bottom five in defending tight ends the way they did last season now that they have LB Bobby Wagner back roaming the middle of the field.

Other Tough Matchups: George Kittle (at PIT), Pat Freiermuth (vs. SF), Dalton Schultz (at BAL), Gerald Everett (vs. MIA), Tyler Conklin (vs. BUF)