Exploiting the Matchups: Week 2 Start/Sit

We call this column "start/sit" for the sake of tradition. Really, it's a more detailed analysis of matchups, identifying players whose value for the upcoming week is elevated or depressed relative to what we can expect throughout the season.

This week, Stefon Diggs lands among the "downgrades" and Randall Cobb gets an "upgrade". This doesn't mean anyone should start Cobb over Diggs, nor is it meant to be purely reactive to what happened Week 1.

The idea is for this column to be useful in any format of fantasy football, whether it's an eight-team redraft league, a 20-team dynasty league or a DFS lineup. Some of the choices for upgrades and downgrades will seem obvious, while others may come as a surprise. Either way, the explanations need to provide a level of detail beyond pointing out that Joe Flacco is a bad play against the Bears defense because the Bears defense is really good and Flacco isn't (all true things).

Before we get into specifics, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups and determining player valuations each week:

• Jeff Erickson's weekly rankings
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• Betting odds
• RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades from Pro Football Focus
• Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Opponent and teammate injuries
• Target share
• Snap counts
• Defense vs. Position stats

Upgrades

QUARTERBACK

• Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. SEA

The infamous home/road splits finally softened last season, but Roethlisberger still owns career averages of 1.94 passing touchdowns per home game and 1.41 per road contest. Following an ugly opener in which the Steelers were massively out-coached, Big Ben gets a far softer matchup Week 2, facing a Seattle secondary that just made Andy Dalton and John Ross look like Tom Brady and Randy Moss. RotoWire's pass coverage stats show Seahawks cornerback Tre Flowers allowing a league-high 150 receiving yards last week, and safety Tedric Thompson made an embarrassing mistake to hand Ross a long touchdown. Jadeveon Clowney will at least help the pass rush, but we can safely say the Legion of Boom is dead.

• Josh Allen, BUF at NYG

I keep waiting for Allen to falter, figuring the poor accuracy and questionable decision-making eventually will catch up to him. It's not unheard of for a quarterback to produce strong fantasy numbers without actually playing well, but Allen has taken it to a new level entirely, averaging 23 points in standard formats over his past seven games. He's completed 54.1 percent of passes for 6.9 YPA in that stretch, with the Bills going 4-3 while playing just one game (a loss) against a team that won more than seven games last season.

Up next is another pillow-soft matchup, this time against a New York defense that just allowed Dak Prescott to throw for 405 yards and four touchdowns on 32 attempts. Rookie cornerback Deandre Baker was beaten for a 4-132-1 receiving line on four targets in the loss, and 35-year-old safety Antoine Bethea yielded 3-82-1 on three targets. Allen should have plenty of chances to accumulate fantasy points, with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll showing no hesitance to rely on his inconsistent young quarterback. (The Bills opened Week 1 with 16 consecutive snaps that were either a pass, rush or sack for Allen.)

• Honorable Mentions: Cam Newton, CAR vs. TB; Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. ARZ; Jared Goff, LAR vs. NO; Derek Carr, OAK vs. KC

RUNNING BACK

• Sony Michel, NE at MIA

A Week 1 matchup with Pittsburgh favored Tom Brady and James White, both of whom landed in the 'upgrade' section while Michel had a spot among the 'downgrades'. I don't point this out to thump my chest (OK, maybe a little), but rather to illustrate that the Patriots aren't some crazy mystery in terms of game plan and backfield usage. This narrative should've died years ago, but the legend of Jonas Gray seems to hold more weight than recent outcomes. Sure, the Patriots can be unpredictable when they need to be. They're also more than happy to take what's easily given — be it passing yards against the Steelers or rushing yards against a weaker opponent.

That brings us to the 2019 Miami Dolphins, who actually are quite good at football relative to the rest of the universe. Unfortunately, they fall somewhere between utterly inept and painfully disgraceful if we're comparing them to the NFL teams they have to face each week. With the Patriots favored by 19 points, Michel should find his way to a start-worthy rushing line by halftime, just like Mark Ingram did last week against the Dolphins. Michel had extreme win/loss splits last season, averaging 17.6 carries for 87.5 yards and 0.75 touchdowns in eight victories, compared to 13.6 carries for 46.2 yards without any scores in five losses. (That doesn't include the playoffs, when he averaged 23.7 carries for 112 yards and 2.0 TDs in three wins).

• Matt Breida, SF at CIN

This selection isn't just about Breida getting extra touches with Tevin Coleman recovering from a high-ankle sprain, though we do know that's what will happen. The matchup sets up perfectly for a speedy, versatile running back, with the Bengals fielding a solid group of cornerbacks and pass rushers, while their top linebackers — Nick Vigil and Preston Brown — are blatant liabilities. PFF gave Brown a pass-coverage grade below 60 each of the past four seasons, with the veteran allowing a 78.6 percent catch rate and 7.8 YPT for his career. Vigil has fared even worse under PFF's grading, which is backed by an 80.3 percent catch rate and 7.8 YPT on passes into his coverage. 

Opponents were all too happy to take advantage last season, with Cincinnati yielding the second-most receiving yards (890) and fourth-most rushing yards (1,818) to running backs. It's a good enough matchup for Breida to put up big numbers even if he cedes one-third or even half of the backfield work to Raheem Mostert. We're talking about a guy who averaged 76.8 scrimmage yards per game last season in a timeshare, despite dealing with ankle injuries that limited him to 13 or fewer snaps four times. Breida averaged 13.8 PPR points in his other 10 games, finishing the year with 5.3 YPC and 8.4 YPT on a sprained ankle.

• Mark Ingram, BAL vs. ARZ

I wonder if the people in charge of the NFL schedule have Ingram on their fantasy teams? He'll face a rebuilding franchise for a second straight week, with a matchup against the all-offense, no-defense Chiefs waiting around the corner. Ingram can even afford to lose some carries to Gus Edwards and Justice Hill — there will be plenty of work to go around with the Ravens favored by 13 points against a team that led the NFL in Week 1 pace (21.4 second per snap). I'm less optimistic on Ingram's long-term outlook, considering Edwards and Hill both got some snaps and touches before the Week 1 game got out of hand. I'll carefully monitor the workload split this Sunday when I attend the Ravens' home opener. 

• Honorable Mentions: Carlos Hyde, HOU vs. JAX; Devin Singletary, BUF at NYG; Miles Sanders, PHI at ATL; Damien Williams, KC at OAK

WIDE RECEIVER

• Dede Westbrook, JAX at HOU

Westbrook survived a tricky Week 1 matchup with Chiefs slot corner Kendall Fuller, scoring from 15 yards out when Gardner Minshew rolled out of the pocket to create a gap in Kansas City's zone coverage. Of course, Westbrook finished with just 30 receiving yards, while teammates D.J. Chark and Chris Conley combined for 243, including Chark's 35-yard TD over the aforementioned Fuller. A deeper dive hints at busier days ahead for Westbrook, who was on the field for 37 of Jacksonville's 39 dropbacks in Week 1, compared to 31 apiece for Chark and Conley (per PFF).

The targets and yardage should work more in Westbrook's favor this week, with the Jags playing as 8.5-point underdogs against a Texans team that released slot corner Aaron Colvin on Tuesday. Starting cornerbacks Bradley Roby and Johnathan Joseph have plenty of experience outside but very little in the slot, while the other options from Houston's Week 1 roster — Keion Crossen, Lonnie Johnson, Xavier Crawford — have combined for 44 career snaps on defense. The Texans responded by signing Phillip Gaines, who has consistently earned poor grades from PFF in the process of allowing 8.9 yards per target in five pro seasons.

• Cooper Kupp, LAR vs. NO

Coming back from an ACL tear, Kupp probably won't be at his best until later this season or even next year. Fortunately, 90 percent of his best should do the trick this week in a matchup with Saints slot corner P.J. Williams, who got roasted by Kenny Stills for a go-ahead, 37-yard touchdown in the final minute of Monday's shootout. It was the same thing we saw throughout last season, when Williams allowed 1.28 yards per coverage snap in the slot, ranking 24th among 30 cornerbacks (200-snap min.). Including outside work, PFF charged him with a 127.4 opponent passer rating, 9.3 YPT, seven touchdowns and one interception. Only 15 defensive players allowed more receiving yards (725), and all of them played more coverage snaps than Williams. 

This matchup also looks great from a macro perspective, with the Rams holding the fifth-highest implied total (27.25) of Week 3, against a defense dominated by the same core group of players that allowed a league-high 3,345 receiving yards to WRs last year. The Saints don't look like quite as much of a pass-funnel defense this year with their interior line limited by injuries, but Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins showed it's still pretty to easy to beat them through the air. We can expect good volume for Jared Goff, who has averaged 36.4 pass attempts in home games and 31.2 in road games under Sean McVay. Kupp also has been much busier at home, averaging 5.2 catches for 74.5 yards and 0.55 TDs on 7.7 targets, compared to 4.0/ 50.8/0.38 and 5.7 targets on the road. 

• D.J. Moore + Curtis Samuel, CAR vs. TB

Moore and Samuel are faster and more agile than most of their opponents, passing the on-field eye test to support their impressive 40 times — 4.42 and 4.31, respectively. With both making the most of limited opportunities late last season, it's easy to see why they were popular breakout candidates all summer. A Week 1 matchup with Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib and Nickell Robey-Coleman put that plan on hold, but it should get back on track Week 2 against Tampa Bay cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves, Carlton Davis and M.J. Stewart. Each of three three ran a 40 time 4.5 or slower, and none has found NFL success so far. (I discussed the Tampa CBs in last week's start/sit, though unfortunately Marquise Goodwin was a big swing-and-miss.

• Randall Cobb, DAL at WAS

I'll admit this is digging too deep for most leagues, but the excellent matchup is worth a mention for anyone that's truly desperate for a wide receiver, or simply looking for a cheap DFS play. Cobb benefited from Kellen Moore's reliance on three-wide formations in the season opener, producing a 4-69-1 receiving line while playing on 28 of Dak Prescott's 36 dropbacks, per PFF. That number put Cobb well ahead of Jason Witten (20) and not too far behind Amari Cooper (34) and Michael Gallup (30). 

Now Cobb gets a slot matchup with rookie seventh-round pick Jimmy Moreland, who is filling in for Fabian Moreau (ankle). PFF charged Moreland with four catches for 69 yards and a touchdown on four targets in his NFL debut, including a long score to DeSean Jackson. Expect Cobb to beat Moreland in a much different way, getting quick separation to catch short passes.

• Honorable Mentions: John Brown, BUF at NYG; Cole Beasley, BUF at NYG; Tyler Lockett, SEA at PIT; DK Metcalf, SEA at PIT; Tyrell Williams, OAK at KC; Mecole Hardman, KC vs. OAK; Calvin Ridley, ATL vs. PHI; Alshon Jeffery, PHI at ATL; Jamison Crowder, NYJ vs. CLE

TIGHT END

• Darren Waller, OAK vs. KC

Waller played every snap on offense Week 1 against Denver, accounting for 31 percent of the Raiders' targets and 26 percent of their air yards (not to mention seven catches for 70 yards). He only drew two targets 10-plus yards past the LOS, and his 6.9 aDOT was pretty typical for a tight end, but the alignments suggest he'll have more downfield opportunities, as PFF charted Waller with 15 snaps out wide and another seven in the slot. 

He and Tyrell Williams are the only shows in town, so there's opportunity to pile up fantasy points even when the team struggles to score. That won't necessarily be the case this week, with Oakland carrying a reasonable implied total (23.0, t-17th) as 7.5-point underdogs. The Chiefs surrendered a league-high 15.9 PPR points per game to tight ends last season, including 10 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown to Jared Cook in two matchups.

• Vance McDonald, PIT vs. SEA

McDonald was shut out in the season opener prior to a pair of garbage-time catches, but a closer looks reveals some promising signs, including a 71 percent snap share that actually understates his dominance of TE snaps. Xavier Grimble was in for just two plays on offense, with McDonald's lost playing time instead caused by the use of five-wide formations — a tactic the Steelers deployed just 30 times all last season and 14 times Sunday night. It probably won't become a staple of the offense, considering those five-WR snaps yielded just 2.7 yards per play and an interception in the blowout loss. McDonald could be looking at three-down usage Week 2, facing a Seahawks defense that just allowed C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Eifert to combine for nine catches and 93 yards on 10 targets.

• Honorable mentions: Jordan Reed (concussion) or Vernon Davis, WAS vs. DAL

BONUS: KICKER 

• Joey Slye, CAR vs. TB

Kickers won't be a regular feature of this column, but I couldn't resist commenting when I noticed Slye is 10 percent owned on Yahoo and 2.5 percent owned on ESPN. Carolina has the fourth-highest implied total (28) of Week 2, playing at home against a Bucs defense that hasn't been respectable in recent memory. Slye won the job when he made seven of eight field-goal attempts in the preseason, including 3-of-4 from 40-49 yards and 3-of-3 from 50-plus. His missed kick Week 1 was a 53-yarder, and he later bounced back with conversions from 46 and 52 yards.

Downgrades

QUARTERBACK

• Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN

Last week, I was adamant about benching Rodgers for a road matchup with the Bears. After all, it's 2019. Unless you're in a two-QB or superflex league, it's generally unwise to start a quarterback with an implied team total of 21.75 points, apart from Russell Wilson (maybe) or rush-heavy players like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. 

This week, I'm not quite adamant about benching Rodgers, but I do think it's something to consider, with Green Bay tied for the 15th-highest implied total (23.5) against a Minnesota squad that just whooped up on Matt Ryan. I'm skeptical of coach Matt LaFleur after his unsuccessful stint in Tennessee, and I can't help but notice that the Vikings held Rodgers to 6.8 YPA and two TDs in a pair of matchups last year. To be clear, this is a matter of the situation around Rodgers and the strength of his opponent, not a criticism of the player himself. It wasn't his decision to bring back Jimmy Graham and devote all the major offseason moves to the defensive side of the ball.

• Drew Brees, NO at LAR

The Rams placed third and ninth in pass-defense DVOA the past two seasons, with Aaron Donald backed by a superb trio of cornerbacks and now an emerging, under-the-radar star at inside linebacker (Cory Littleton). Brees torched the Rams for 346 yards and four TDs in Week 9 last year, but he was held to 6.2 YPA in the playoff rematch with Aqib Talib back from injury. Both games were played in New Orleans, where Brees has proven to be matchup-proof and consistently hyper-efficient. Road games have been a different story, especially when he has to play outdoors. Brees tossed 25 touchdowns in 17 outdoor games (1.47 average) the past three seasons, compared to 62 TDs in 28 dome contests (2.21 average). Playing outdoors against a top pass defense is the worst possible situation for his fantasy production.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Joe Flacco, DEN vs. CHI; Eli Manning, NYG vs. BUF; Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. IND

RUNNING BACK

• Derrick Henry, TEN vs. IND

The Titans are three-point favorites against a team that surrendered 21 carries for 125 yards and a touchdown last week. So, what gives? For starters, the spread suggests Tennessee is viewed as a slightly better team, considering home-field advantage is worth ~2.5 points. It feels like the Titans are getting an awful lot of credit for a "blowout" that actually was close before Henry was gifted a 75-yard touchdown on a screen pass. The Browns finished the day with 18 penalties, three interceptions and one ejection, with left tackle Greg Robinson booted from the game before his replacement (Kendall Lamm) promptly suffered a knee injury. 

The Colts won't be giving out those types of gifts each week, boasting a strong top-to-bottom roster with no glaring question marks apart from the quarterback. Jacoby Brissett looked more than adequate last week, while Marcus Mariota looked as mediocre as ever but finished with a pretty stat line from gimme touchdowns and yards after the catch. Long story short, I expect the Colts to win this game, and I don't want Henry in my lineups unless I think the Titans will win. He averaged 10.4 carries for 43.6 yards and 0.14 touchdowns in seven losses last year, including a 25-139-0 rushing line in two losses to Indianapolis.

• Latavius Murray, NO at LAR

The Rams don't defend the run well and don't really care, with coordinator Wade Phillips understanding that it's fine to give up some chunks on the ground if his scheme makes quarterbacks miserable. The problem here is a matter of volume, with the tough road matchup pointing to another elevated snap count for Alvin Kamara, who had a 50-18 edge over Murray in Monday's nail-biter against Houston. For additional evidence, look no further than the aforementioned Mark Ingram, who averaged 9.7 carries for 31.7 yards and no touchdowns in three matchups with the Rams (including playoffs) the past two seasons. 

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: James White, NE at MIA; Phillip Lindsay, DEN vs. CHI; Royce Freeman, DEN vs. CHI; Malcolm Brown, LAR vs. NO; Kenyan Drake, MIA vs. NE

WIDE RECEIVER

• Stefon Diggs, MIN at GB

Most fantasy owners won't have the luxury of benching Diggs, who still belongs in lineups unless the alternative is a top-30 WR. I agree with his spot in Jeff Erickson's weekly rankings, which place Diggs at No. 26 among wide receivers — a spot low enough to where some owners might have better options. While the Vikings won't completely ignore their passing attack the way they did last week, they are one of the few teams in the NFL with a genuine chance to make the playoffs relying on a run-heavy offense and stifling defense. It's a poor strategy for any team without a rushing threat from the QB spot, but when has that ever stopped stubborn NFL coaches before?

The other part of this equation is what we saw last Thursday: an improved Green Bay defense that got immediate results from pricey offseason acquisitions Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Adrian Amos (they combined for six QB hits, 2.5 sacks and an INT). The Packers even got solid performances from cornerbacks Jaire Alexander, Kevin King and Tramon Williams, with each receiving a PFF coverage grade of 67.7 or better, allowing a combined 11-93-0 receiving line on 23 targets.

• Emmanuel Sanders, DEN vs. CHI

It's best to view this Week 2 matchup as a mere speed bump, with Sanders well on his way to outperforming his minimal draft/auction cost. I'd be more willing to test the difficult matchup if we could expect Sanders to get regular work inside against the one weak link in Chicago's defense — slot cornerback Buster Skrine. Unfortunately, the 32-year-old wideout took eight snaps from the slot Week 1, while teammate DaeSean Hamilton had 43 (per PFF).

• Danny Amendola, DET vs. LAC

After feasting on Arizona's joke of a secondary, Amendola gets a hellacious Week 2 matchup with the slot king, Desmond King, who shuts down wide receivers and returns kicks with equal skill. PFF shows King with  427 yards allowed on 425 slot coverage snaps last season, with his mark of 1.0 per snap placing 13th among 49 cornerbacks (100-snap minimum). He picked off three passes and allowed one TD in that capacity, limiting opponents to 8.3 yards per catch. The fact that King is also a Pro Bowl return specialist is incidental to our interests, but I think it's pretty cool, so why not mention it a second time?

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB vs. MIN; Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. CHI; Ted Ginn, NO at LAR

TIGHT END

• Austin Hooper, ATL vs. PHI

Week 2 brings good news for everyone in the Atlanta passing attack besides Hooper, who seems to have his best fantasy games when the rest of the team struggles. His five performances with 15+ PPR points last season included three Falcons losses in which they scored either 16 or 17 points, with Hooper's production seemingly a product of Matt Ryan not being able to do what he actually wanted to do. The tight end averaged 4.9 catches in losses and 3.9 in wins, with just 15 of his 71 receptions occurring when the Falcons held a lead.

The matchup this week should flip in the other direction, with the Falcons holding an implied total of 24.75 points against an Eagles defense that nearly handed Case Keenum a win last week. Last season, Philadelphia allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers and the fourth-fewest to tight ends. Safeties Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod remain the strong points in an otherwise beatable secondary.

• Not-so-Honorable Mention: Jimmy Graham, GB vs. MIN