This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.
We're almost there. It takes five or six starts for in-season numbers to make a noticeable difference in rest-of-season projections. By this time next week, around 100 pitchers will have started at least five times.
I reserve the right to overwrite my initial projection, which will in turn adjust the rest of season expectation. However, so far, I've only manually tweaked three hurlers: Ronel Blanco, Reese Olson and Jared Jones. Blanco continues to get it done with smoke and mirrors, but he merited an upgrade to reflect using his changeup more while reducing slider deployment. Olson was an oversight. Part of my engine regresses BABIP and left on base, but sometimes the level is still out of whack with MLB norm. I manually review almost everyone I project, but I missed Olson. Jones was a matter of MLE translations not always reflecting the talent of the better prospects, so some massaging was needed.
I let the rest-of-season engine code take care of the rest. To be clear, these are my projections, which aren't the same as the site version.
As always, the schedule is subject to change. Please direct all rotation questions to the Probable Pitchers page. I'm happy to explain rankings in the discussion below.
PLEASE NOTE: The weekend series between the Astros and Rockies is in Mexico City. Colorado is serving as the home team. The park factors are slightly more favorable than Coors Field.
UPDATED: Monday April 22, 1:15 AM ET
Week of April 22
We're almost there. It takes five or six starts for in-season numbers to make a noticeable difference in rest-of-season projections. By this time next week, around 100 pitchers will have started at least five times.
I reserve the right to overwrite my initial projection, which will in turn adjust the rest of season expectation. However, so far, I've only manually tweaked three hurlers: Ronel Blanco, Reese Olson and Jared Jones. Blanco continues to get it done with smoke and mirrors, but he merited an upgrade to reflect using his changeup more while reducing slider deployment. Olson was an oversight. Part of my engine regresses BABIP and left on base, but sometimes the level is still out of whack with MLB norm. I manually review almost everyone I project, but I missed Olson. Jones was a matter of MLE translations not always reflecting the talent of the better prospects, so some massaging was needed.
I let the rest-of-season engine code take care of the rest. To be clear, these are my projections, which aren't the same as the site version.
As always, the schedule is subject to change. Please direct all rotation questions to the Probable Pitchers page. I'm happy to explain rankings in the discussion below.
PLEASE NOTE: The weekend series between the Astros and Rockies is in Mexico City. Colorado is serving as the home team. The park factors are slightly more favorable than Coors Field.
UPDATED: Monday April 22, 1:15 AM ET
Week of April 22 - 28
Mixed
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comments | MIX12 | MIX15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | @TB, KC | Rewarding those trusting him as an ace | ||
2 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | @LAA, OAK | |||
3 | Pablo Lopez | MIN | CWS, @LAA | |||
4 | Corbin Burnes | BAL | OAK | |||
5 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | @CIN | |||
6 | Tanner Houck | BOS | @CLE, CHC | 28 K, 2 BB over 26 IP | ||
7 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @PIT | |||
8 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | @TOR | |||
9 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | @CIN, @SD | |||
10 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | @TEX, ARI | |||
11 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @SEA | |||
12 | Sonny Gray | STL | @NYM | Opened season with 11 scoreless innings | ||
13 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | @WAS | |||
14 | Reid Detmers | LAA | BAL, MIN | 23 K, 4 BB over last 17.2 IP | ||
15 | Bailey Ober | MIN | CWS | 1.06 ERA and .65 WHIP with 16 K and 3 BB in 17 IP since… you know… | ||
16 | Joe Ryan | MIN | CWS | |||
17 | Aaron Nola | PHI | @SD | |||
18 | Jared Jones | PIT | MIL, @SF | 23 K, with just 2 BB spanning first 23 IP | ||
19 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | OAK | |||
20 | Logan Webb | SF | NYM | 2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but 22 K in 30 IP a concern | ||
21 | Zach Eflin | TB | @CWS | |||
22 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | @SEA | |||
23 | Chris Sale | ATL | CLE | |||
24 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | CIN | |||
25 | Reynaldo Lopez | ATL | MIA | |||
26 | Brady Singer | KC | TOR, @DET | Changes to pick mix appear to be working | ||
27 | Michael King | SD | @COL, PHI | |||
28 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | CHC | |||
29 | Dylan Cease | SD | @COL, PHI | |||
30 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | @KC, LAD | |||
31 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | @KC, LAD | Says shoulder is fine. Numbers don't agree | ||
32 | Marcus Stroman | NYY | OAK, @MIL | |||
33 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | DET | |||
34 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | PHI | 16 K with 1 BB in 12 IP, welcome back! | ||
35 | Jordan Montgomery | ARI | @STL | |||
36 | Max Fried | ATL | MIA | |||
37 | George Kirby | SEA | ARI | 3.63 xFIP says be patient | ||
38 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | WAS | |||
39 | Michael Wacha | KC | TOR, @DET | |||
40 | Bryce Miller | SEA | @TEX | |||
41 | Jose Berrios | TOR | @KC | |||
42 | Dane Dunning | TEX | SEA, CIN | |||
43 | Seth Lugo | KC | @DET | |||
44 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | PHI, @TEX | Could be the week his actual 2.70 ERA moves towards 4.59 xFIP | ||
45 | Hunter Greene | CIN | PHI, @TEX | |||
46 | Jordan Hicks | SF | PIT | |||
47 | Brayan Bello | BOS | @CLE | |||
48 | Keaton Winn | SF | NYM, PIT | |||
49 | Aaron Civale | TB | @CWS | |||
50 | Garrett Crochet | CWS | @MIN | Been really good or really bad. Will land in between, but closer to really good. | ||
51 | Jose Quintana | NYM | @SF, STL | 30% | ||
52 | Justin Verlander | HOU | @CHC | |||
53 | Luis Castillo | SEA | @TEX | 2.80 xFIP less than half of 5.82 ERA | ||
54 | Spencer Turnbull | PHI | @CIN | 3.61 xFIP says there is some luck to 1.23 ERA, but 3.61 is really good | ||
55 | Cole Ragans | KC | TOR | |||
56 | Lance Lynn | STL | ARI, @NYM | |||
57 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | @CIN | Walks a little high, but preseason buzz seemingly warranted | ||
58 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | WAS | |||
59 | Blake Snell | SF | NYM | |||
60 | Jon Gray | TEX | SEA | |||
61 | Kyle Harrison | SF | PIT | |||
62 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | OAK | |||
63 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @STL, @SEA | |||
64 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | HOU | |||
65 | Joe Musgrove | SD | PHI | |||
66 | Ronel Blanco | HOU | @CHC | |||
67 | Jose Butto | NYM | STL | |||
68 | Charlie Morton | ATL | CLE | |||
69 | Bailey Falter | PIT | MIL, @SF | 0% | 5% | |
70 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | OAK, @MIL | |||
71 | James Paxton | LAD | @WAS, @TOR | |||
72 | Kenta Maeda | DET | @TB | |||
73 | Dean Kremer | BAL | @LAA | |||
74 | Michael Lorenzen | TEX | CIN | 1% | ||
75 | Jack Flaherty | DET | @TB | |||
76 | JP Sears | OAK | @NYY, @BAL | 23% | ||
77 | Mix 12 Reliever | |||||
78 | Reese Olson | DET | KC | |||
79 | Mitch Keller | PIT | MIL | |||
80 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | @ATL | |||
81 | Bryce Elder | ATL | MIA, CLE | 2% | 2% | |
82 | Mix 15 Reliever | |||||
83 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | BOS | |||
84 | Sean Manaea | NYM | @SF | |||
85 | Casey Mize | DET | KC | |||
86 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | @SD | 1% | 2% | |
87 | Luis Gil | NYY | @MIL | |||
88 | Jose Soriano | LAA | MIN | 7% | ||
89 | Andrew Heaney | TEX | SEA | 28% | ||
90 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | HOU | 11% | ||
91 | Javier Assad | CHC | @BOS | |||
92 | Zack Littell | TB | DET, @CWS | |||
93 | Martin Perez | PIT | @SF | 49% | ||
94 | Landon Knack | LAD | @WAS | 0% | 0% | |
95 | Trevor Rogers | MIA | @ATL | |||
96 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | BAL | 19% | ||
97 | Joe Ross | MIL | @PIT, NYY | 6% | ||
98 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | LAD | |||
99 | Mitchell Parker | WAS | @MIA | 0% | 0% | |
100 | Cole Irvin | BAL | OAK | 3% | 37% | |
101 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | MIN | 9% | ||
102 | Nick Martinez | CIN | @TEX | 2% | 30% | |
103 | Tyler Alexander | TB | DET | 0% | 7% | |
104 | Erick Fedde | CWS | @MIN, TB | 41% | ||
105 | Luis Severino | NYM | @SF | |||
106 | Wade Miley | MIL | @PIT, NYY | 8% | ||
107 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | LAD | |||
108 | Kyle Gibson | STL | ARI | 5% | 47% | |
109 | Griffin Canning | LAA | BAL | 26% | ||
110 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | @ATL | |||
111 | Ben Lively | CLE | BOS, @ATL | 0% | 0% | |
112 | Louie Varland | MIN | @LAA | |||
113 | Jake Irvin | WAS | LAD | 0% | 21% | |
114 | Steven Matz | STL | ARI | |||
115 | Joe Boyle | OAK | @NYY | 24% | ||
116 | Adrian Houser | NYM | STL | 0% | 19% | |
117 | Chris Paddack | MIN | CWS, @LAA | |||
118 | Josh Winckowski | BOS | CHC | 0% | 0% | |
119 | Logan Allen | CLE | @ATL | 0% | 0% | |
120 | Miles Mikolas | STL | @NYM | 13% | ||
121 | Jordan Wicks | CHC | HOU, @BOS | 23% | ||
122 | Trevor Williams | WAS | @MIA | 1% | 14% | |
123 | Gavin Stone | LAD | @TOR | |||
124 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | ARI | 2% | 25% | |
125 | Cooper Criswell | BOS | @CLE | 0% | 5% | |
126 | Graham Ashcraft | CIN | PHI | |||
127 | Albert Suarez | BAL | @LAA | 0% | 0% | |
128 | Yariel Rodriguez | TOR | @KC | |||
129 | Paul Blackburn | OAK | @NYY, @BAL | |||
130 | Ryan Weathers | MIA | @ATL, WAS | 21% | ||
131 | Colin Rea | MIL | NYY | 4% | ||
132 | J.P. France | HOU | @CHC, @COL | 10% | ||
133 | Nick Nastrini | CWS | TB | 0% | 9% | |
134 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | BOS | 0% | 14% | |
135 | Ross Stripling | OAK | @BAL | 1% | 32% | |
136 | Jonathan Cannon | CWS | @MIN, TB | 0% | 0% | |
137 | Cal Quantrill | COL | HOU | 0% | 0% | |
138 | Randy Vasquez | SD | @COL | 0% | 0% | |
139 | Alex Wood | OAK | @NYY | 0% | 9% | |
140 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | LAD, @MIA | 0% | 2% | |
141 | Alec Marsh | KC | TOR | 10% | ||
142 | Austin Gomber | COL | SD | 1% | 0% | |
143 | Ryan Feltner | COL | SD | 3% | 23% | |
144 | Hunter Brown | HOU | @COL | |||
145 | Matt Waldron | SD | @COL | 3% | ||
146 | Dakota Hudson | COL | SD | 0% | 0% | |
147 | Peter Lambert | COL | HOU | 0% | 0% | |
148 | Michael Soroka | CWS | @MIN | 4% | 18% | |
149 | Janson Junk | MIL | @PIT | 0% | 0% | |
150 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | @BOS | 2% | 23% | |
151 | Quinn Priester | PIT | MIL | 0% | 2% | |
152 | Tommy Henry | ARI | @STL | 1% | 2% | |
153 | Ty Blach | COL | SD | 1% | 0% |
American League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | @TB, KC | Rewarding those trusting him as an ace |
2 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | @LAA, OAK | |
3 | Pablo Lopez | MIN | CWS, @LAA | |
4 | Corbin Burnes | BAL | OAK | |
5 | Tanner Houck | BOS | @CLE, CHC | 28 K, 2 BB over 26 IP |
6 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | @TEX, ARI | |
7 | Reid Detmers | LAA | BAL, MIN | 23 K, 4 BB over last 17.2 IP |
8 | Bailey Ober | MIN | CWS | 1.06 ERA and .65 WHIP with 16 K and 3 BB in 17 IP since… you know… |
9 | Joe Ryan | MIN | CWS | |
10 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | OAK | |
11 | Zach Eflin | TB | @CWS | |
12 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | CIN | |
13 | Brady Singer | KC | TOR, @DET | Changes to pick mix appear to be working |
14 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | CHC | |
15 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | @KC, LAD | |
16 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | @KC, LAD | Says shoulder is fine. Numbers don't agree |
17 | Marcus Stroman | NYY | OAK, @MIL | |
18 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | DET | |
19 | George Kirby | SEA | ARI | 3.63 xFIP says be patient |
20 | Michael Wacha | KC | TOR, @DET | |
21 | Bryce Miller | SEA | @TEX | |
22 | Jose Berrios | TOR | @KC | |
23 | Dane Dunning | TEX | SEA, CIN | |
24 | Seth Lugo | KC | @DET | |
25 | Brayan Bello | BOS | @CLE | |
26 | Aaron Civale | TB | @CWS | |
27 | Garrett Crochet | CWS | @MIN | Been really good or really bad. Will land in between, but closer to really good. |
28 | Justin Verlander | HOU | @CHC | |
29 | Luis Castillo | SEA | @TEX | 2.80 xFIP less than half of 5.82 ERA |
30 | Cole Ragans | KC | TOR | |
31 | Jon Gray | TEX | SEA | |
32 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | OAK | |
33 | Ronel Blanco | HOU | @CHC | |
34 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | OAK, @MIL | |
35 | Kenta Maeda | DET | @TB | |
36 | Dean Kremer | BAL | @LAA | |
37 | Michael Lorenzen | TEX | CIN | |
38 | Jack Flaherty | DET | @TB | |
39 | JP Sears | OAK | @NYY, @BAL | |
40 | Reese Olson | DET | KC | |
41 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | BOS | |
42 | Casey Mize | DET | KC | |
43 | Luis Gil | NYY | @MIL | |
44 | Jose Soriano | LAA | MIN | |
45 | Andrew Heaney | TEX | SEA | |
46 | Zack Littell | TB | DET, @CWS | |
47 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | BAL | |
48 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | LAD | |
49 | AL Reliever | |||
50 | Cole Irvin | BAL | OAK | |
51 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | MIN | |
52 | Tyler Alexander | TB | DET | |
53 | Erick Fedde | CWS | @MIN, TB | |
54 | Griffin Canning | LAA | BAL | |
55 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | @ATL | |
56 | Ben Lively | CLE | BOS, @ATL | |
57 | Louie Varland | MIN | @LAA | |
58 | Joe Boyle | OAK | @NYY | |
59 | Chris Paddack | MIN | CWS, @LAA | |
60 | Josh Winckowski | BOS | CHC | |
61 | Logan Allen | CLE | @ATL | |
62 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | ARI | |
63 | Cooper Criswell | BOS | @CLE | |
64 | Albert Suarez | BAL | @LAA | |
65 | Yariel Rodriguez | TOR | @KC | |
66 | Paul Blackburn | OAK | @NYY, @BAL | |
67 | J.P. France | HOU | @CHC, @COL | |
68 | Nick Nastrini | CWS | TB | |
69 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | BOS | |
70 | Ross Stripling | OAK | @BAL | |
71 | Jonathan Cannon | CWS | @MIN, TB | |
72 | Alex Wood | OAK | @NYY | |
73 | Alec Marsh | KC | TOR | |
74 | Hunter Brown | HOU | @COL | |
75 | Michael Soroka | CWS | @MIN |
National League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | @CIN | |
2 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @PIT | |
3 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | @TOR | |
4 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | @CIN, @SD | |
5 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @SEA | |
6 | Sonny Gray | STL | @NYM | Opened season with 11 scoreless innings |
7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | @WAS | |
8 | Aaron Nola | PHI | @SD | |
9 | Jared Jones | PIT | MIL, @SF | 23 K, with just 2 BB spanning first 23 IP |
10 | Logan Webb | SF | NYM | 2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but 22 K in 30 IP a concern |
11 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | @SEA | |
12 | Chris Sale | ATL | CLE | |
13 | Reynaldo Lopez | ATL | MIA | |
14 | Michael King | SD | @COL, PHI | |
15 | Dylan Cease | SD | @COL, PHI | |
16 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | PHI | 16 K with 1 BB in 12 IP, welcome back! |
17 | Jordan Montgomery | ARI | @STL | |
18 | Max Fried | ATL | MIA | |
19 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | WAS | |
20 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | PHI, @TEX | Could be the week his actual 2.70 ERA moves towards 4.59 xFIP |
21 | Hunter Greene | CIN | PHI, @TEX | |
22 | Jordan Hicks | SF | PIT | |
23 | Keaton Winn | SF | NYM, PIT | |
24 | Jose Quintana | NYM | @SF, STL | |
25 | Spencer Turnbull | PHI | @CIN | 3.61 xFIP says there is some luck to 1.23 ERA, but 3.61 is really good |
26 | Lance Lynn | STL | ARI, @NYM | |
27 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | @CIN | Walks a little high, but preseason buzz seemingly warranted |
28 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | WAS | |
29 | Blake Snell | SF | NYM | |
30 | Kyle Harrison | SF | PIT | |
31 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @STL, @SEA | |
32 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | HOU | |
33 | Joe Musgrove | SD | PHI | |
34 | Jose Butto | NYM | STL | |
35 | Charlie Morton | ATL | CLE | |
36 | Bailey Falter | PIT | MIL, @SF | |
37 | James Paxton | LAD | @WAS, @TOR | |
38 | Mitch Keller | PIT | MIL | |
39 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | @ATL | |
40 | Bryce Elder | ATL | MIA, CLE | |
41 | Sean Manaea | NYM | @SF | |
42 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | @SD | |
43 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | HOU | |
44 | Javier Assad | CHC | @BOS | |
45 | Martin Perez | PIT | @SF | |
46 | Landon Knack | LAD | @WAS | |
47 | Trevor Rogers | MIA | @ATL | |
48 | Joe Ross | MIL | @PIT, NYY | |
49 | Mitchell Parker | WAS | @MIA | |
50 | NL Reliever | |||
51 | Nick Martinez | CIN | @TEX | |
52 | Luis Severino | NYM | @SF | |
53 | Wade Miley | MIL | @PIT, NYY | |
54 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | LAD | |
55 | Kyle Gibson | STL | ARI | |
56 | Jake Irvin | WAS | LAD | |
57 | Steven Matz | STL | ARI | |
58 | Adrian Houser | NYM | STL | |
59 | Miles Mikolas | STL | @NYM | |
60 | Jordan Wicks | CHC | HOU, @BOS | |
61 | Trevor Williams | WAS | @MIA | |
62 | Gavin Stone | LAD | @TOR | |
63 | Graham Ashcraft | CIN | PHI | |
64 | Ryan Weathers | MIA | @ATL, WAS | |
65 | Colin Rea | MIL | NYY | |
66 | Cal Quantrill | COL | HOU | |
67 | Randy Vasquez | SD | @COL | |
68 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | LAD, @MIA | |
69 | Austin Gomber | COL | SD | |
70 | Ryan Feltner | COL | SD | |
71 | Matt Waldron | SD | @COL | |
72 | Dakota Hudson | COL | SD | |
73 | Peter Lambert | COL | HOU | |
74 | Janson Junk | MIL | @PIT | |
75 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | @BOS | |
76 | Quinn Priester | PIT | MIL | |
77 | Tommy Henry | ARI | @STL | |
78 | Ty Blach | COL | SD |