Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Five Times a Charm

Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Five Times a Charm

This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.

We're almost there. It takes five or six starts for in-season numbers to make a noticeable difference in rest-of-season projections. By this time next week, around 100 pitchers will have started at least five times.

I reserve the right to overwrite my initial projection, which will in turn adjust the rest of season expectation. However, so far, I've only manually tweaked three hurlers: Ronel Blanco, Reese Olson and Jared Jones. Blanco continues to get it done with smoke and mirrors, but he merited an upgrade to reflect using his changeup more while reducing slider deployment. Olson was an oversight. Part of my engine regresses BABIP and left on base, but sometimes the level is still out of whack with MLB norm. I manually review almost everyone I project, but I missed Olson. Jones was a matter of MLE translations not always reflecting the talent of the better prospects, so some massaging was needed.

I let the rest-of-season engine code take care of the rest. To be clear, these are my projections, which aren't the same as the site version.

As always, the schedule is subject to change. Please direct all rotation questions to the Probable Pitchers page. I'm happy to explain rankings in the discussion below.

PLEASE NOTE: The weekend series between the Astros and Rockies is in Mexico City. Colorado is serving as the home team. The park factors are slightly more favorable than Coors Field.

UPDATED: Monday April 22, 1:15 AM ET

Week of April 22

We're almost there. It takes five or six starts for in-season numbers to make a noticeable difference in rest-of-season projections. By this time next week, around 100 pitchers will have started at least five times.

I reserve the right to overwrite my initial projection, which will in turn adjust the rest of season expectation. However, so far, I've only manually tweaked three hurlers: Ronel Blanco, Reese Olson and Jared Jones. Blanco continues to get it done with smoke and mirrors, but he merited an upgrade to reflect using his changeup more while reducing slider deployment. Olson was an oversight. Part of my engine regresses BABIP and left on base, but sometimes the level is still out of whack with MLB norm. I manually review almost everyone I project, but I missed Olson. Jones was a matter of MLE translations not always reflecting the talent of the better prospects, so some massaging was needed.

I let the rest-of-season engine code take care of the rest. To be clear, these are my projections, which aren't the same as the site version.

As always, the schedule is subject to change. Please direct all rotation questions to the Probable Pitchers page. I'm happy to explain rankings in the discussion below.

PLEASE NOTE: The weekend series between the Astros and Rockies is in Mexico City. Colorado is serving as the home team. The park factors are slightly more favorable than Coors Field.

UPDATED: Monday April 22, 1:15 AM ET

Week of April 22 - 28

Mixed

RankPitcherTMOPPCommentsMIX12MIX15
1Tarik SkubalDET@TB, KCRewarding those trusting him as an ace  
2Grayson RodriguezBAL@LAA, OAK   
3Pablo LopezMINCWS, @LAA   
4Corbin BurnesBALOAK   
5Zack WheelerPHI@CIN   
6Tanner HouckBOS@CLE, CHC28 K, 2 BB over 26 IP  
7Freddy PeraltaMIL@PIT   
8Tyler GlasnowLAD@TOR   
9Ranger SuarezPHI@CIN, @SD   
10Logan GilbertSEA@TEX, ARI   
11Zac GallenARI@SEA   
12Sonny GraySTL@NYMOpened season with 11 scoreless innings  
13Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD@WAS   
14Reid DetmersLAABAL, MIN23 K, 4 BB over last 17.2 IP  
15Bailey OberMINCWS1.06 ERA and .65 WHIP with 16 K and 3 BB in 17 IP since… you know…
16Joe RyanMINCWS   
17Aaron NolaPHI@SD   
18Jared JonesPITMIL, @SF23 K, with just 2 BB spanning first 23 IP  
19Nestor CortesNYYOAK   
20Logan WebbSFNYM2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but 22 K in 30 IP a concern  
21Zach EflinTB@CWS   
22Merrill KellyARI@SEA   
23Chris SaleATLCLE   
24Nathan EovaldiTEXCIN   
25Reynaldo LopezATLMIA   
26Brady SingerKCTOR, @DETChanges to pick mix appear to be working  
27Michael KingSD@COL, PHI   
28Kutter CrawfordBOSCHC   
29Dylan CeaseSD@COL, PHI   
30Yusei KikuchiTOR@KC, LAD   
31Kevin GausmanTOR@KC, LADSays shoulder is fine. Numbers don't agree  
32Marcus StromanNYYOAK, @MIL   
33Ryan PepiotTBDET   
34Nick LodoloCINPHI16 K with 1 BB in 12 IP, welcome back!  
35Jordan MontgomeryARI@STL   
36Max FriedATLMIA   
37George KirbySEAARI3.63 xFIP says be patient  
38Jesus LuzardoMIAWAS   
39Michael WachaKCTOR, @DET   
40Bryce MillerSEA@TEX   
41Jose BerriosTOR@KC   
42Dane DunningTEXSEA, CIN   
43Seth LugoKC@DET   
44Andrew AbbottCINPHI, @TEXCould be the week his actual 2.70 ERA moves towards 4.59 xFIP 
45Hunter GreeneCINPHI, @TEX   
46Jordan HicksSFPIT   
47Brayan BelloBOS@CLE   
48Keaton WinnSFNYM, PIT   
49Aaron CivaleTB@CWS   
50Garrett CrochetCWS@MINBeen really good or really bad. Will land in between, but closer to really good.
51Jose QuintanaNYM@SF, STL 30% 
52Justin VerlanderHOU@CHC   
53Luis CastilloSEA@TEX2.80 xFIP less than half of 5.82 ERA  
54Spencer TurnbullPHI@CIN3.61 xFIP says there is some luck to 1.23 ERA, but 3.61 is really good
55Cole RagansKCTOR   
56Lance LynnSTLARI, @NYM   
57Cristopher SanchezPHI@CINWalks a little high, but preseason buzz seemingly warranted 
58Edward CabreraMIAWAS   
59Blake SnellSFNYM   
60Jon GrayTEXSEA   
61Kyle HarrisonSFPIT   
62Clarke SchmidtNYYOAK   
63Brandon PfaadtARI@STL, @SEA   
64Shota ImanagaCHCHOU   
65Joe MusgroveSDPHI   
66Ronel BlancoHOU@CHC   
67Jose ButtoNYMSTL   
68Charlie MortonATLCLE   
69Bailey FalterPITMIL, @SF 0%5%
70Carlos RodonNYYOAK, @MIL   
71James PaxtonLAD@WAS, @TOR   
72Kenta MaedaDET@TB   
73Dean KremerBAL@LAA   
74Michael LorenzenTEXCIN 1% 
75Jack FlahertyDET@TB   
76JP SearsOAK@NYY, @BAL 23% 
77Mix 12 Reliever     
78Reese OlsonDETKC   
79Mitch KellerPITMIL   
80Braxton GarrettMIA@ATL   
81Bryce ElderATLMIA, CLE 2%2%
82Mix 15 Reliever     
83Triston McKenzieCLEBOS   
84Sean ManaeaNYM@SF   
85Casey MizeDETKC   
86Taijuan WalkerPHI@SD 1%2%
87Luis GilNYY@MIL   
88Jose SorianoLAAMIN 7% 
89Andrew HeaneyTEXSEA 28% 
90Jameson TaillonCHCHOU 11% 
91Javier AssadCHC@BOS   
92Zack LittellTBDET, @CWS   
93Martin PerezPIT@SF 49% 
94Landon KnackLAD@WAS 0%0%
95Trevor RogersMIA@ATL   
96Tyler AndersonLAABAL 19% 
97Joe RossMIL@PIT, NYY 6% 
98Chris BassittTORLAD   
99Mitchell ParkerWAS@MIA 0%0%
100Cole IrvinBALOAK 3%37%
101Patrick SandovalLAAMIN 9% 
102Nick MartinezCIN@TEX 2%30%
103Tyler AlexanderTBDET 0%7%
104Erick FeddeCWS@MIN, TB 41% 
105Luis SeverinoNYM@SF   
106Wade MileyMIL@PIT, NYY 8% 
107MacKenzie GoreWASLAD   
108Kyle GibsonSTLARI 5%47%
109Griffin CanningLAABAL 26% 
110Tanner BibeeCLE@ATL   
111Ben LivelyCLEBOS, @ATL 0%0%
112Louie VarlandMIN@LAA   
113Jake IrvinWASLAD 0%21%
114Steven MatzSTLARI   
115Joe BoyleOAK@NYY 24% 
116Adrian HouserNYMSTL 0%19%
117Chris PaddackMINCWS, @LAA   
118Josh WinckowskiBOSCHC 0%0%
119Logan AllenCLE@ATL 0%0%
120Miles MikolasSTL@NYM 13% 
121Jordan WicksCHCHOU, @BOS 23% 
122Trevor WilliamsWAS@MIA 1%14%
123Gavin StoneLAD@TOR   
124Emerson HancockSEAARI 2%25%
125Cooper CriswellBOS@CLE 0%5%
126Graham AshcraftCINPHI   
127Albert SuarezBAL@LAA 0%0%
128Yariel RodriguezTOR@KC   
129Paul BlackburnOAK@NYY, @BAL   
130Ryan WeathersMIA@ATL, WAS 21% 
131Colin ReaMILNYY 4% 
132J.P. FranceHOU@CHC, @COL 10% 
133Nick NastriniCWSTB 0%9%
134Carlos CarrascoCLEBOS 0%14%
135Ross StriplingOAK@BAL 1%32%
136Jonathan CannonCWS@MIN, TB 0%0%
137Cal QuantrillCOLHOU 0%0%
138Randy VasquezSD@COL 0%0%
139Alex WoodOAK@NYY 0%9%
140Patrick CorbinWASLAD, @MIA 0%2%
141Alec MarshKCTOR 10% 
142Austin GomberCOLSD 1%0%
143Ryan FeltnerCOLSD 3%23%
144Hunter BrownHOU@COL   
145Matt WaldronSD@COL 3% 
146Dakota HudsonCOLSD 0%0%
147Peter LambertCOLHOU 0%0%
148Michael SorokaCWS@MIN 4%18%
149Janson JunkMIL@PIT 0%0%
150Kyle HendricksCHC@BOS 2%23%
151Quinn PriesterPITMIL 0%2%
152Tommy HenryARI@STL 1%2%
153Ty BlachCOLSD 1%0%

American League

RankPitcherTMOPPComment
1Tarik SkubalDET@TB, KCRewarding those trusting him as an ace
2Grayson RodriguezBAL@LAA, OAK 
3Pablo LopezMINCWS, @LAA 
4Corbin BurnesBALOAK 
5Tanner HouckBOS@CLE, CHC28 K, 2 BB over 26 IP
6Logan GilbertSEA@TEX, ARI 
7Reid DetmersLAABAL, MIN23 K, 4 BB over last 17.2 IP
8Bailey OberMINCWS1.06 ERA and .65 WHIP with 16 K and 3 BB in 17 IP since… you know…
9Joe RyanMINCWS 
10Nestor CortesNYYOAK 
11Zach EflinTB@CWS 
12Nathan EovaldiTEXCIN 
13Brady SingerKCTOR, @DETChanges to pick mix appear to be working
14Kutter CrawfordBOSCHC 
15Yusei KikuchiTOR@KC, LAD 
16Kevin GausmanTOR@KC, LADSays shoulder is fine. Numbers don't agree
17Marcus StromanNYYOAK, @MIL 
18Ryan PepiotTBDET 
19George KirbySEAARI3.63 xFIP says be patient
20Michael WachaKCTOR, @DET 
21Bryce MillerSEA@TEX 
22Jose BerriosTOR@KC 
23Dane DunningTEXSEA, CIN 
24Seth LugoKC@DET 
25Brayan BelloBOS@CLE 
26Aaron CivaleTB@CWS 
27Garrett CrochetCWS@MINBeen really good or really bad. Will land in between, but closer to really good.
28Justin VerlanderHOU@CHC 
29Luis CastilloSEA@TEX2.80 xFIP less than half of 5.82 ERA
30Cole RagansKCTOR 
31Jon GrayTEXSEA 
32Clarke SchmidtNYYOAK 
33Ronel BlancoHOU@CHC 
34Carlos RodonNYYOAK, @MIL 
35Kenta MaedaDET@TB 
36Dean KremerBAL@LAA 
37Michael LorenzenTEXCIN 
38Jack FlahertyDET@TB 
39JP SearsOAK@NYY, @BAL 
40Reese OlsonDETKC 
41Triston McKenzieCLEBOS 
42Casey MizeDETKC 
43Luis GilNYY@MIL 
44Jose SorianoLAAMIN 
45Andrew HeaneyTEXSEA 
46Zack LittellTBDET, @CWS 
47Tyler AndersonLAABAL 
48Chris BassittTORLAD 
49AL Reliever   
50Cole IrvinBALOAK 
51Patrick SandovalLAAMIN 
52Tyler AlexanderTBDET 
53Erick FeddeCWS@MIN, TB 
54Griffin CanningLAABAL 
55Tanner BibeeCLE@ATL 
56Ben LivelyCLEBOS, @ATL 
57Louie VarlandMIN@LAA 
58Joe BoyleOAK@NYY 
59Chris PaddackMINCWS, @LAA 
60Josh WinckowskiBOSCHC 
61Logan AllenCLE@ATL 
62Emerson HancockSEAARI 
63Cooper CriswellBOS@CLE 
64Albert SuarezBAL@LAA 
65Yariel RodriguezTOR@KC 
66Paul BlackburnOAK@NYY, @BAL 
67J.P. FranceHOU@CHC, @COL 
68Nick NastriniCWSTB 
69Carlos CarrascoCLEBOS 
70Ross StriplingOAK@BAL 
71Jonathan CannonCWS@MIN, TB 
72Alex WoodOAK@NYY 
73Alec MarshKCTOR 
74Hunter BrownHOU@COL 
75Michael SorokaCWS@MIN 

National League

RankPitcherTMOPPComment
1Zack WheelerPHI@CIN 
2Freddy PeraltaMIL@PIT 
3Tyler GlasnowLAD@TOR 
4Ranger SuarezPHI@CIN, @SD 
5Zac GallenARI@SEA 
6Sonny GraySTL@NYMOpened season with 11 scoreless innings
7Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD@WAS 
8Aaron NolaPHI@SD 
9Jared JonesPITMIL, @SF23 K, with just 2 BB spanning first 23 IP
10Logan WebbSFNYM2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but 22 K in 30 IP a concern
11Merrill KellyARI@SEA 
12Chris SaleATLCLE 
13Reynaldo LopezATLMIA 
14Michael KingSD@COL, PHI 
15Dylan CeaseSD@COL, PHI 
16Nick LodoloCINPHI16 K with 1 BB in 12 IP, welcome back!
17Jordan MontgomeryARI@STL 
18Max FriedATLMIA 
19Jesus LuzardoMIAWAS 
20Andrew AbbottCINPHI, @TEXCould be the week his actual 2.70 ERA moves towards 4.59 xFIP
21Hunter GreeneCINPHI, @TEX 
22Jordan HicksSFPIT 
23Keaton WinnSFNYM, PIT 
24Jose QuintanaNYM@SF, STL 
25Spencer TurnbullPHI@CIN3.61 xFIP says there is some luck to 1.23 ERA, but 3.61 is really good
26Lance LynnSTLARI, @NYM 
27Cristopher SanchezPHI@CINWalks a little high, but preseason buzz seemingly warranted
28Edward CabreraMIAWAS 
29Blake SnellSFNYM 
30Kyle HarrisonSFPIT 
31Brandon PfaadtARI@STL, @SEA 
32Shota ImanagaCHCHOU 
33Joe MusgroveSDPHI 
34Jose ButtoNYMSTL 
35Charlie MortonATLCLE 
36Bailey FalterPITMIL, @SF 
37James PaxtonLAD@WAS, @TOR 
38Mitch KellerPITMIL 
39Braxton GarrettMIA@ATL 
40Bryce ElderATLMIA, CLE 
41Sean ManaeaNYM@SF 
42Taijuan WalkerPHI@SD 
43Jameson TaillonCHCHOU 
44Javier AssadCHC@BOS 
45Martin PerezPIT@SF 
46Landon KnackLAD@WAS 
47Trevor RogersMIA@ATL 
48Joe RossMIL@PIT, NYY 
49Mitchell ParkerWAS@MIA 
50NL Reliever   
51Nick MartinezCIN@TEX 
52Luis SeverinoNYM@SF 
53Wade MileyMIL@PIT, NYY 
54MacKenzie GoreWASLAD 
55Kyle GibsonSTLARI 
56Jake IrvinWASLAD 
57Steven MatzSTLARI 
58Adrian HouserNYMSTL 
59Miles MikolasSTL@NYM 
60Jordan WicksCHCHOU, @BOS 
61Trevor WilliamsWAS@MIA 
62Gavin StoneLAD@TOR 
63Graham AshcraftCINPHI 
64Ryan WeathersMIA@ATL, WAS 
65Colin ReaMILNYY 
66Cal QuantrillCOLHOU 
67Randy VasquezSD@COL 
68Patrick CorbinWASLAD, @MIA 
69Austin GomberCOLSD 
70Ryan FeltnerCOLSD 
71Matt WaldronSD@COL 
72Dakota HudsonCOLSD 
73Peter LambertCOLHOU 
74Janson JunkMIL@PIT 
75Kyle HendricksCHC@BOS 
76Quinn PriesterPITMIL 
77Tommy HenryARI@STL 
78Ty BlachCOLSD 

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
Offseason Deep Dives: Hunter Greene
Offseason Deep Dives: Hunter Greene
Farm Futures: November Dynasty Mailbag!
Farm Futures: November Dynasty Mailbag!
All-Bust Fantasy Team: Relief Pitchers
All-Bust Fantasy Team: Relief Pitchers
Collette Calls: Thinking About Pitchers Returning From Injuries
Collette Calls: Thinking About Pitchers Returning From Injuries