The Z Files: NFBC Holdem Rankings and Strategies

The National Fantasy Baseball Championship Postseason Holdem contest is one of my favorite formats in all of fantasy sports. It combines several strategic elements while minimizing the effect of stacking select teams.

To this point, some playoff contests are designed such that a lineup that focuses on one or two teams will likely prevail if those teams advance to the World Series. While there is nothing wrong with this approach, it favors those with the ability to enter multiple teams. Not everyone has the means to do this. We're getting off topic here, but this is why DFS has single-entry options.

To be fair, one is allowed to have multiple entries in the NFBC contests, and there are ways to favor different teams, but the rules require at least one player from every team in the playoffs at the start of the round. So yes, planting one's flag on a team, or teams, is a viable approach, but the advantage in entering multiple teams is lessened. As someone only entering one team, I don't feel I'm as much in the hole as with other playoff contests.

For the complete rules, please visit the NFBC site. Here's a synopsis to help frame the rest of the discussion and rankings:

• 16 man rosters: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 4 OF, UT, 6 P
• Points scoring (a more typical setup than the Cutline system)
• Division Series must have one player from every team, max of three.
• Championship Series must have two players from every team, max of six.
• World Series must have at least six players from both teams.
• Multipliers: The first time a player is used, he's x1. All players used in two straight series are x2. Those used in all three are x3.

It's clear that choosing some teams to stack and others to fade is integral, but the setup helps lessen the influence, at least compared to other setups.

As such, deciding which teams from which to select three players is crucial. An argument can be made for riding the underdogs, since the field you're competing against will be smaller than those playing chalk. Another approach is to cede the fact you'll have to beat more teams by supporting the favorites, as there are ample means of differentiating your roster, so the overlap isn't as detrimental. Examples are the players you choose from the one-off teams and the initial players from the teams you expect to advance, since their multipliers will have more of an effect as the contests moves to the next round.

Your team, your call, but with one entry, my approach will be the latter. I am not going to purposely back a team I expect to lose. I may not ride all the favorites, but I'm not wired to support a team I think is most likely to exit quickly.

Along those lines, here are the current Divisional Series odds from Caesars:

• Yankees -250/Guardians +200 
• Braves -200/Phillies +165
• Astros -260/Mariners +210 
• Dodgers -250/Padres +200

And the World Series odds:

• Dodgers +260
• Astros +380
• Yankees +525
• Braves +550
• Phillies +1100
• Padres +1100
• Mariners +1200
• Guardians +1800

The first step is discerning which teams to back and which to fade. The extreme is to go with four teams with three players and four with one player comprising your initial 16-man roster. If there is a series for which you are less confident, two and two could be the approach.

Now comes the fun part, filling in the puzzle. Balancing positions is always necessary, but the added factors of knowing you're going to replace four players along with wanting the best players to garner the multipliers makes finding the right pieces more challenging. This is the reason the ensuing rankings are presented via position. That is, you can gauge which set is stronger and who could be available to add each subsequent round. The listings match the eligibility from the contest. That is, Marwin Gonzalez is ranked at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and OF.

Personally, I usually choose my 12 best players and hope I don't double up positions. Inevitably, there are some overlaps, so I aim for an optimal 12 with the intention of adding the others in the next round. In order to do so, the position for the soon-to-be-added player must initially be filled with someone from the four losing teams. I play around with this approach until I land on the most efficient combination of players I want to advance and openings for the next round. It is within this process that I feel I can separate myself from others backing the same teams.

With that as a backdrop, here are the positional rankings. I've made some (but not many) adjustments based on the team and their odds of advancing.

CATCHER

First Base

Second Base

Third Base

Shortstop

Outfield

Pitcher

Good luck and I hope to see you on the leaderboard!