NL FAAB Factor: Mid-July Update

We are settling into a mild sense of normalcy for baseball, as camps opened two weeks and the secondary camps are slated to open sometime this week. Granted, nothing is set in stone, and as we have seen from the number of positive COVID cases and players opting out, there is no true normal. As such, to quote John Steinbeck, "the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry," so even though MLB and MLBPA have a very detailed health protocol, the season still could be canceled at any moment.

The hope clearly for all of us is that there will be baseball and that the season continued unimpeded to a World Series winner on the field. We will be here weekly until the playoffs to provide FAAB advice for both the NL and AL. The plan is to hopefully project bids next week, which is shortly before the season starting. Right now, we decided that the situation is a bit too unclear to project with any remote kind of certainty, even more so than the usual sense of uncertainty when it comes to bids. But if you have questions on players, happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

As said previously, baseball is back. If you haven't been prepping during the pandemic, get cracking, as the season is less than two weeks away, If you have been, hopefully the info in this column helps. Look for additional information and names, coupled with projected bids, as the season approaches. 

PITCHER

Steven Brault/Chad Kuhl, Pirates: Brault and Kuhl could "piggyback," each pitching several innings of the same game in Pittsburgh's fifth starter slot. Neither are particularly great starting options, though Kuhl, recovering from September 2018 Tommy John surgery, which forced him to miss all of 2019, is the more talent of the two.  If selecting one to bid on and expect to see more work, go with Kuhl, who has looked strong so far this spring with catcher Jacob Stallings referring to his repertoire as both "nasty" and "filthy." Brault profiles as a long reliever, so he may be second in line.

Corbin Burnes/Eric Lauer/Freddy Peralta, Brewers: Each is in the mix to break camp as Milwaukee's fifth starter. Milwaukee could conceivably go with a six-man rotation where it's a tandem start on the sixth day, or they could just be very conservative with how deep they let the non-Brandon Woodruff starters go. If the latter occurs, two of the three pitchers could be tandem starters, mirroring the second-fourth starter with the odd-man out filling the fifth starter role. Lauer landed on the injured list for undisclosed reasons Saturday, which could take him out of the starting mix. To me, the favorite to earn the spot is Peralta, who signed a five-year, $15.5 million contract extension in February, despite pitching better out of the bullpen last season, due to his upside.

Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers: Gonsolin is an option for the starter spot left vacated by David Price opting opt. Ross Stripling and Dustin May are also in contention for the role, but it wouldn't be surprising to see all three of them take on some starting duties during the abbreviated 2020 season. Gonsolin performed well during his first major-league stint in 2019, posting a 2.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 11 appearances (six starts), despite less than optimal advanced stats. Gonsolin is a pretty good better to break camp with the team, as a starter or reliever.

Mitch Keller, Pirates: Keller's real-life production was a far cry from what the advance metrics showed, as his 7.13 ERA was a 3.19 FIP. Armed with a plus fastball, plus slider and above-average curveball, he is a lock for the Pirates rotation and could have a breakout year. Keller took steps this offseason to make that possibility a reality, using his own Rapsodo (a pitch device tool) during the shutdown period to improve the spin efficiency on his fastball. He upped spin efficiency from the low 90s to the 95th percentile, which hopefully will provide the needed movement on his fastball that in the past has been too straight,

Pablo Lopez/Jose Urena, Marlins: Lopez and Urena are near locks to fill two slots in the Marlins' rotation. Lopez posted a 5.09 ERA (with a more palatable 4.27 FIP) and a 95:27 K:BB over 111.1 innings last year, using a curveball, changeup to go with his 94-mph fastball to retire hitters. If his strikeout rate improves, Lopez could be an interesting target, even though the Marlins moved in the fences. Urena struggled starting and relieving last year. He has a plus fastball and little else, but if he can develop a second pitch, he has a shot at remaining in the rotation.

Tyler Mahle, Reds: Mahle will either be used in a piggyback role or as a long reliever this season. Little difference exists between the two roles from a fantasy purpose, as Mahle will still rack up innings, likely will minimal success. But he is good for some counting stats, wins and Ks, even though his ERA and WHIP will be high.

Adrian Morejon/Cal Quantrill, Padres: Morejon, who struggled in his first exposure to the big leagues last season, and Quantrill, who held his own before tiring late and getting shut down, could be important parts of the San Diego pitching staff this year. Possessing a smaller 5-foot-11 frame and significant durability issues, Morejon projects as a reliever, but he was to work as a starter in Triple-A again this season.  a relief role long term. He could theoretically help the club as a short-inning starter, a multi-inning reliever or an opener for the Padres if he continues his impressive camp. Quantrill projects to remain a starter in the future, but this season, he looks to fill a swingman role for San Diego. He could pitch multiple relief innings if a starter is pulled early, a scenario made more likely by the urgency of each game and the presence of a designated hitter in the National League, enabling Quantrill to post decent counting stats. 

David Peterson, Mets: Peterson, selected in the first round in 2017, is expected to be the Mets' first depth option in the rotation should one of the team's five starters miss time. Projected as a mid-rotation starter in the future, Peterson is also poised to be a part of the 2021 rotation, with Noah Sydergaard (Tommy John surgery) expected to miss the first couple months and Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha set to be free agents after this season. Peterson has good command of a quality three-pitch mix and is excellent at generating groundballs, so he could outperform expectations, though he has yet to pitch above Double-A Binghamton.

Josh Tomlin, Braves: Tomlin could get a start early in the season if Cole Hamels is not ready. Hamels (shoulder) didn't throw his scheduled side session Saturday after experiencing triceps tendinitis, which he said is similar to what he normal experiences during spring training. But with the season less than two weeks away, he may not be ready Opening Day. Tomlin is set to serve as the Braves' long relief man, but he has plenty of starting experience from his days in Cleveland, and is more stretched out than some of Atlanta's other options.

Logan Webb, Giants: Webb, the leading candidate for the Giants' fifth starter spot, may be used as a bulk-innings pitcher. Rather than consistently pitching each fifth day, Webb could mirror or piggyback one of the other four starters or work in tandem with Trevor Cahill, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Suarez, who are battling for that fifth spot. Talent-wise, Webb, who totaled just 103 innings across Triple-A and the big-leagues last season, has the edge. But manager Gabe Kapler doesn't expect any starter to go beyond four innings to start the season, which impacts their value.

RELIEF PITCHER

Dellin Betances, Mets: Betances' velocity is not yet back to the upper-90s, sitting in the 92-93 range right now. But the belief is that the fastball velo should tick up slowly the next two weeks before the season opens. In addition, Betances is fully healthy, after missing all but two-thirds of an innings last season due to surgery to a remove a bone spur in his shoulder and then a torn Achilles. He is not expected to close, but if he comes close to his prior form, should provide solid value.  

Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks: Bradley is expected to open 2020 when he closed 2019, as Arizona's closer. He took over the role partly through last season, leading the club with 18 saves while establishing a career high in strikeout rate. Bradley has extreme splits, struggling versus lefties, so he could cede some opportunities to Andrew Chafin or possibly Hector Rondon or Kevin Ginkel. But Bradley still should be a solid option as a second closer in your leagues.

Ryan Helsley, Cardinals: Helsley was profiled last week along with John Gant and Andrew Miller. But he gets a second mention, as his was the first name Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak mentioned as a potential closing candidate to begin the season in the event Giovanny Gallegos (non-injury related) isn't ready to go for Opening Day and Jordan Hicks (elbow) opening the year on the injured list. Helsley's numbers from 2019 weren't exceptional (2.95 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 36.2 innings), but the Cardinals were encouraged by the strides he made during the spring and seemingly have him earmarked for a key role out of the bullpen in his second MLB season. In addition to Helsley, Carlos Martinez, who right now is penciled into the fifth starter spot over Kwang-Hyun Kim, could also enter the mix for saves if Gallegos isn't available,

CATCHER 

Joey Bart/Rob Brantly/Tyler Heineman, Giants: Bart, profiled last week, gets another mention as Buster Posey officially opted of the 2020 season Friday, as he and his wife are adopting twins. With Posey not playing, this leaves a big hole behind the plate for San Francisco with Bart a potential beneficiary. Originally, Bart was to be in major-league camp but wasn't originally considered a candidate for the Opening Day roster. This view could change now that Posey has opted out even though Bart has played just 22 games at Double-A. Heineman was competing with Brantly (also on a minor-league deal) to be Posey's backup with Aramis Garcia (hip) out until mid-August. Now both could make the team, especially if Bart is deemed not ready,

Luis Torrens, Padres: Torrens might break camp as the Friars' third catcher, though that is not set in stone. There are multiple factors that will determine whether San Diego chooses to carry three catchers on its initial 30-man squad, not the least of which is the possibility of Francisco Mejia logging time as designated hitter. Should the Padres choose to use Mejia in that role, Torrens, who raked at Double-A Amarillo last season, though has not yet played at Triple-A El Paso, has a much more direct path to breaking camp with the big-league club.

Daulton Varsho, Diamondbacks: Varsho, drafted in 2017, is on the D-Backs 60-man roster and stands a very good chance of breaking camp with the big-league club. Manager Torey Lovullo said there's a chance Varsho, a catcher by trade, sees some innings in center field after playing left field in an intra-squad game this past week. Varsho, who is behind Carson Kelly and Stephen Vogt at catcher will rotate in at his natural position during camp, is expected to make his major league debut in 2020. He logged 18 homers and 21 steals at the Double-A level in 2019 and has five-tool potential.

FIRST BASE

Bryce Ball, Braves: Adding Ball in your league depends on if you can sign players from the taxi squad. A 24th-round pick out of Dallas Baptist in the 2019 first-year player draft, Ball was added to the Braves' 60-man summer camp roster. Between stops at rookie-level Danville and Low-A Rome, Ball slugged 17 home runs and slashed .329/.395/.628 in 263 plate appearances. He provides the team depth in camp with Freddie Freeman (COVID-19) sidelined, but is not expected to make his major-league debut the summer. But he is a nice long-term stash candidate.

Wilmer Flores/Darin Ruf/Austin Slater, Giants: Brandon Belt is sidelined by right heel pain and will be re-evaluated in 5-to-7 days, potentially leaving a hole at first base for the Giants if he is unable to be back for the start of the season. San Francisco signed Flores to a two-year, $6 million deal in February after the Diamondbacks declined his club option earlier in the offseason. He figures to split time at second base with Mauricio Dubon, though could be an option at first, where he has seen copious playing time in the past, if Belt is out. In addition, Ruf is more likely to make the team, as is Austin Slater, if Belt is sidelined.

SECOND BASE 

Luis Guillorme/Jed Lowrie, Mets: Robinson Cano has yet to appear at Mets camp, spurring speculation as to the cause of his absence. With slightly less than two weeks until Opening Day, the longer he is out, the less likely he will be ready until when the bell rings to start the season. If Cano is not ready, Guillorme could be in line for an expanded role at second base, as could Lowrie (knee) if he's finally over the injury woes that have plagued him for over a year. Lowrie is still wearing a brace and has yet to show any explosiveness on the basepaths, but could be an option at the keystone position. New York could also move Jeff McNeil to second, play J.D. Davis at third and start Yoenis Cespedes in left field.

THIRD BASE

Johan Camargo/Austin Riley, Braves: Camargo and Riley, along with Adam Duvall and Cristian Pache, get a bump in value with Nick Markakis deciding to opt-out of the 2020 season. Duvall and Markakis were expected to form a platoon in left field with Marcell Ozuna filling the DH role almost daily, Now, with Markakis out, Duvall should be the favorite to play left most times, supplemented by Camargo and Riley, who are battling to start at third but get bigger roles with Markakis sidelined. In addition, Camargo, Duvall and Riley are possible first-base options in the event Freddie Freeman (COVID-10) isn't available for the start of the season July 23 with Duvall the favorite for that role.

Josh Donaldson, Atlanta's third baseman last season, signed with Minnesota, leaving a hole at the hot corner. Camargo, the starter at third base in 2017, and Riley, who moved from third to left field last season, were battling this spring to fill that spot. Originally, the loser was expected to head to Triple-A Gwinnett. But with MLB to have slightly expanded rosters, the presence of the DH and both players having fine springs, each should open the season in Atlanta. The duo is still battling for the spot, but if Riley can reduce his strikeouts, he remains the favorite in the long run to seize the job.

SHORTSTOP

Jon Berti, Marlins: Berti, who provided production across the board after his promotion last season could play five or six times a week as the Marlins' super-utility player during the compacted schedule. In 73 games, he slashed .273/.348/.406 with six home runs, 17 steals and 52 runs scored while seeing playing time at third, short, left, center and right field. Speed has always been his primary weapon with 270 steals in his nine-year, minor, league career, and with steals difficult to find and maybe more prominent in the shortened season, Berti has an uptick in value.

OUTFIELD 

Shogo Akiyama/Nick Senzel, Reds: Akiyama, set to begin his first season in the U.S., figures to be one of the beneficiaries, along with Aristides Aquino, Senzel and Jesse Winker, of the Universal DH. Those four players were battling for playing time at two outfield spots. The addition of another spot in the batting order affords each of the three additional playing time. Akiyama, a five-time NPB All-Star, signed a three-year, $21 million deal with the Reds this past January and will play the two corner spots with Senzel, covered last week and now fully healthy after an ankle injury to start 2019 and September shoulder surgery, starting almost daily in center field, prompting his mention this week. He makes solid contact and draws walks, which should result in Akiyama leading off vs. RHP at a minimum and benefitting from the solid batting order behind him. 

Harrison Bader, Cardinals: Bader is a candidate to see time at designated hitter out of the bottom of the order in 2020. Manager Mike Shildt is looking at a relatively crowded outfield with Opening Day less than three weeks away with Dylan Carlson, Dexter Fowler, Tyler O'Neill and Lane Thomas, in addition to Bader all in the mix, and shifting Bader out of the mix could be one of the ways to lighten the field of candidates. Bader -- who has double-digit home runs and stolen bases in each of the last two seasons -- could offer a solid mix of power and speed out of the No. 9 spot in the lineup, creating a Bader-Kolten Wong combination at the turn of the order. If this happens, Thomas likely starts in CF with Carlson and O'Neill taking time away from Fowler. But Shildt still needs to find room for Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman with using one at DH an option.

Adam Duvall/Cristian Pache, Braves: Duvall and Pache, along with Johan Camargo and Austin Riley, get a bump with Nick Markakis deciding to opt-out of the 2020 season. Duvall and Markakis were expected to form a platoon in left field with Marcell Ozuna filling the DH role almost daily, Now, with Markakis out, Duvall should be the favorite to play left most times, supplemented by Camargo and Riley, who are battling to start at third but get bigger roles. In addition, Camargo, Duvall and Riley are possible first-base options in the event Freddie Freeman (COVID-10) isn't available for the start of the season July 23. Duvall blasted 32 home runs in the minors and 10 in 130 plate appearances after getting called up to Atlanta last season. He played corner infielder while coming up through the Giants' system, so is likely the first option at first if Freeman is sidelined, leaving third and left for Riley and Camargo. Pache's defensive wizardry in center field could allow him to push his way into the mix, particularly if Ender Inciarte struggles again or has trouble staying healthy. The 21-year-old Pache, who still has several others to leapfrog to make the team and also earn playing time, also slashed a combined .277/.340/.462 in 130 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, but his bat is still considered a work in progress.

Jon Jay/Josh Rojas/Trayce Thompson, Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun, the Diamondbacks' projected starter in right field, tested positive for COVID-19, and his return in time for the regular season is uncertain. Manager Torey Lovullo mentioned these three players as potential replacements for Calhoun if he's unavailable for Opening Day, though Calhoun arrived at camp Friday and has a good shot at being ready to start the season. Jay can play all three outfield positions and became a favorite of manager Torey Lovullo during his half-year stint with the Diamondbacks in 2018. He was battling Rojas for possibly the last roster position, but the expanded rosters and his outfield flexibility should earn him a major-league jersey, Rojas, who saw time at second base and shortstop this spring, makes a perfect back end roster filler in NL-only leagues. He came to Arizona from Houston as part of the haul for Zack Greinke with a power-speed combination, which he displayed signs of in the majors. That flexibility and upside coupled with the use of the DH adds to Rojas' value. Thompson was a longshot to make the team initially, but now could be on the 30-man roster to break camp, though his spot will tenuous as the roster is decreased to 26 the following two weeks. 

Monte Harrison, Marlins: Harrison had a big spring training - slashing .364/.481/.500 with zero home runs, six steals and a 7:5 K:BB in 27 plate appearances – but was slated to begin the season at Triple-A Wichita. However, following baseball's three-plus-month hiatus, the cancellation of the minor-league season and the implementation of a 60-man roster pool, Harrison entered the past week with a realistic chance to make an impact for the Marlins in 2020. Harrison has impressed since Summer Camp 2.0 opened, increasing his chances of beginning the season as Miami's starting right fielder. Neither Matt Joyce nor Lewis Brinson has made an appearance in camp yet, and if they remain unavailable through Opening Day or simply aren't ready due to a delayed start to camp, Harrison would likely only need to beat out Harold Ramirez to claim the job, making him a bit of an under-the-radar sleeper in leagues.

Gregory Polanco, Pirates: Polanco, now fully healthy, should start close to every day in right field or at DH, batting fifth, for the Pirates. We saw in 2016 and 2018 what Polanco can do when he is able to stay on the field. Last season, shoulder injuries adversely impacted Polanco's output, which also happened in 2017, when injuries wreaked havoc with his campaign. The extra time off due to the Covid pandemic has allowed Polanco to return at 100% for summer camp, where he has displayed his skills at the plate and in the field.