Adam Duvall

In 2021, Duvall hit 38 homers and helped Atlanta to a title, but the sequel was sadly a flop. A torn tendon sheath in his wrist required surgery and ended his season after 86 games, and his .213/.276/.401 line (87 wRC+) prior to the injury left much to be desired. The prospects for a 34-year-old coming off both surgery and a down season don't seem great, but there are still reasons to be in on Duvall as a late lottery ticket. While both his 32.1 K% and 6.7 BB% were quite poor, he found success despite very similar numbers the year before. He didn't hit the ball quite as hard last season, though a drop in hard-hit rate from 43.9% to 40.4% is far from catastrophic. It's also the sort of thing that can be explained by a bothersome wrist. In theory, correcting that issue could allow him to return to 2021 form, making him a cheap source of power for those who can handle the batting average downside, though that would require a team liking him enough to give him a starting job.

How is this for a timeline: Duvall became a free agent after the 2020 season when Atlanta did not sign him. He went to Miami on a two-year deal, but ended up back with Atlanta. All he did was help win a ring, win a Gold Glove and lead the NL in RBI with 113. Last season marked the third time in his career he has reached the 30-homer plateau, and he and his employers have embraced both what he is and what he is not. He is never going to hit even league average with his aggressive approach and high strikeout totals, but in 2021, he was a monster with runners in scoring position (.326/.367/.757). When nobody was on, Duvall hit .172/.231/.354. The numbers with runners on base were well above his career average, so one has to plan for a less productive season in 2022. Draft the power, but do not overpay.

Expanded rosters and the universal DH paved the way for Duvall to begin the season as the Braves' right-handed component of a right-field platoon. After slashing .412/.500/.824 through Aug. 5, Duvall earned a regular lineup spot. Duvall slumped to .190/.226/.329 over his next 21 games, but then from Sept. 2 on, he crushed 11 homers, fueling a .245/.324/.649 line down the stretch. There's a good chance Duvall would have slowed down again as his batted-ball data didn't support the power surge, though he posted a career-low 25.8 K%. His flyball tendencies drive plus power, but they also deflate his BABIP, so he remains a BA risk. Atlanta non-tendered the 32-year-old outfielder, sending him to the free-agent market. Duvall's second-half power surge should help him find work, but he only merits a mixed-league roster spot with regular at-bats.

Despite cracking 64 homers from 2016-17, Duvall opened the 2019 campaign with Triple-A Gwinnett following a poor spring. Though, to be fair, it wasn't just his spring numbers; Duvall had a terrible 2018, including a .132/.193/.151 line with Atlanta to end the 2018 season. Duvall righted the ship with the Stripers, finally earning a ticket back to the big leagues July 27. After a hot start, Duvall cooled and was optioned twice before coming up for good after rosters expanded. His .267/.315/.567 performance was a significant improvement over the previous season while bashing 42 homers combined suggests the power stroke is still there. Duvall's best pathway to playing time is on the small side of a platoon as his OPS facing left-handers since 2017 is .842, checking in at 1.130 last year, albeit in just 44 plate appearances. If Duvall wins a full-time job, he's worth a late flier. Otherwise he's NL-only fodder.

Duvall was unable to follow up on his back-to-back 30 homer seasons. His offensive production fell off considerably and he was eventually traded to Atlanta before the deadline for some bench depth. His overall skills were in line with recent seasons, but Duvall regressed quite a bit in 2018 against southpaws, hitting .186/.286/.351 in 126 plate appearances. That was in sharp contrast to the above-average seasons Duvall enjoyed against lefties in both 2016 and 2017. We don't know if the 2018 numbers reflect the new Duvall or if they will prove an outlier against the better work that he did the prior two years. Statcast data says Duvall's overall numbers underperformed given the quality of his contact. The Braves brought back Nick Markakis, and now Duvall will need an injury to avoid being a short-side platoon player to begin 2019.

After being a pleasant surprise from the Mike Leake trade, many thought that Duvall would have difficulty repeating his 2016 breakout performance. However, that's essentially what Duvall did in 2017, reprising nearly the same output in all five standard categories. It appeared that he might even exceed his 2016 production, but a September collapse (.218/.284/.276 with no homers in his last 30 games) prevented that. The dilemma for the Reds is whether his low-OBP, good-power level is good enough when the team is ready to contend. Between Duvall, Billy Hamilton and Scott Schebler, they have three outfielders that are good at some aspects of the game but lacking in others -- all while Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel are knocking at the door to find playing time. The guess here is that Duvall will maintain his level and playing time for one more year, but when he starts to become more expensive the Reds will find better alternatives.

Duvall's power long made him an intriguing player in the Giants' organization, but prior to last season, he was never on the field for more than 27 big league games in a season. The Reds, in need of offense and help in left field, had little difficulty finding playing time for Duvall in 2016, and he turned 608 plate appearances into a .241/.297/.498 line with 33 homers and 103 RBI. As the season progressed, Duvall showed improvement in his plate discipline, lowering his strikeout rate from 29.0 percent before the All-Star break to 24.6 percent thereafter, and pushing his walk rate from 4.9 percent to 8.8 percent during that span. With a better eye at the plate, however, he offered less pop, slugging .434 in the second half after toting a .551 mark in the first half. Duvall should reprise his role as the Reds' regular left fielder to begin 2017, where he may end up competing for at-bats with Scott Schebler once Jesse Winker becomes a fixture in the lineup.

Duvall has always had tremendous power, but his ability to control the strike zone has been sub-optimal. His brief big league trial with the Reds after he arrived in the Mike Leake trade demonstrated both of those qualities. He homered five times and had a .265 ISO in 72 plate appearances, but he also struck out 36 percent of the time. He could fit in one of two openings for the Reds in 2016 — either in left field where he played last year, or third base in the wake of the Todd Frazier trade. It's possible that he reaches 20 homers and hits .210 in the process.

It is tough to overlook a corner infielder that owns a career slash line of .269/.345/.501 in the minors and hit .298/.360/.599 last season, but you should. Duvall thrived in the Pacific Coast League last season as he did two seasons ago in the California League when he hit 30 home runs. He has 100 minor league home runs in 500 games, but is 26 and has seen just 77 plate appearances in the big leagues. He did hit three home runs last season in that time, but also struck out 20 times. His minor-league splits show someone who hits better against lefties but does not embarrass himself against righties. He is not a prospect, but players who show pop tend to get their chances, and Duvall’s future as a backup to the corners will hinge upon his ability to make more contact the second time around.