Dexter Fowler

Fowler had a decent rebound season at the plate after a terribly disappointing 2018. The 19 homers he hit were a career high, and the 137 runs-plus-RBI he totaled represented his best effort since the 2015 season. He has maintained his strong discipline at the plate to earn walks, but has also been unable to cure the strikeout ills as his rate has worsened in each of the past three seasons which has impacted his batting average. His average exit velocity, despite the career high in homers, was in the bottom 10th percentile of the league and nearly a four mph drop from where he was just two seasons ago. There is nothing in the skills which would predict a return to his 2015 fantasy relevancy, so use the most recent years to set your expectations unless there is some systemic change in his approach. He has two more years until free agency, but they could also be his final two years in the league at this rate.

For the third straight season, Fowler's games played dipped, this time below 100 for the first time since 2008, when he debuted. While injuries contributed, he also simply didn't perform. A slow start to the campaign forced him to the bench frequently, causing friction with then manager Mike Matheny as Fowler preferred steady playing time to right the sinking ship. His plate skills were in line with career norms, but a 3.1-mph drop from an already-middling average exit velocity harpooned Fowler's BABIP to .210, the third-lowest mark among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. Not only did Fowler's offense deteriorate, but his defense took another step back. Fowler's season, perhaps mercifully, ended prematurely in early August after he fractured his left foot with a foul ball. He's expected to be healthy in the spring and will get a chance to reclaim his starting role.

When he was in the lineup, Fowler performed similarly to the last several seasons. The problem continues to be durability as he failed to play more than 125 games for the fourth time in his last five campaigns. Despite playing in a home park that depresses homers for the first time in his career, Fowler set a career high in long balls. On the flip side, largely due to the Cardinals’ team tendencies, Fowler failed to swipe double-digit bases for the first time in a full season in the majors. In addition, perhaps due to the move to the more spacious Busch Stadium, the recent gains Fowler exhibited with the leather were given back as his defensive metrics reverted to well below average. Running less, continued health issues and declining defense do not bode well for anyone, but for someone on the wrong side of 30 years old, it limits fantasy potential, especially in mixed leagues.

Fowler's return to the Cubs in February was one of the early-spring surprises of 2016, as it was first reported that he was nearing a deal with Baltimore. Returning for a second season on the north side of Chicago, Fowler was once against the catalyst for a potent lineup, which allowed him to parlay his career-high .393 OBP into 84 runs despite the fact that a hamstring injury limited him to 125 games. In addition to his work atop the lineup, Fowler graded out as an improved defender in center field by positioning himself deeper in the outfield on a regular basis. Fowler cashed in ahead of his 31st birthday, signing a five-year, $82.5 million deal with the Cardinals in December. He's an everyday leadoff hitter capable of providing double-digit homers and steals, as he's done in four of the past five seasons.

Acquired from the Astros last January, Fowler hit for a career-low .250 and struck out a career-high 154 times for the Cubs in 2015, but that's about all he did wrong. He had 54 extra-base hits — including a shocking 17 home runs — stole 20 bases, walked 84 times, and topped 100 runs. Yep, the Cubs got the leadoff hitter they wanted. In one of the big shocks of the offseason, Fowler elected to return to the Northside on a one-year deal, and manager Joe Maddon has already said Fowler will lead off when he's in the lineup. His walk rate has always been pretty good — his 12.2% rate in 2015 was right around career norms — and he has stolen at least 11 bases in each of the last seven seasons. He may not get quite as many plate appearances as he did last season, as the Cubs' outfield is as crowded as ever, but he should still be quite appealing as the table-setter in the most potent lineup in baseball.

Acquired by the Astros in the trade that sent Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes to Colorado, Fowler's first season away from his previous home of Coors Field went much better than many expected. A nasty early-season illness and a sore back limited the switch-hitting outfielder to 116 games with his new club, but he was one of the Astros' best offensive players when healthy. Fowler hit .276/.375/.399 with eight home runs, 35 RBI, 11 steals and a 13.1% walk rate. His .375 OBP ranked a close second on the team behind MLB hits leader Jose Altuve (.377). Traded to the Cubs in January, Fowler projects as the team's starting center fielder and new leadoff hitter, after the lineup lacked high OBP options to set the table a year ago.

After a massive April in which he batted .305 with eight homers and four steals, Fowler's breakout never materialized as injuries took their toll on his productivity, limiting him to four homers and 15 steals the rest of the way as he finished with a disappointing .263/.369/.407 line. The Rockies ended up dealing the outfielder to Houston in December, where he'll presumably be installed at the top of the order for a gradually improving lineup. Fowler should remain a decent source of runs and steals with the Astros, but he still carries a ton of risk by virtue of the massive home/road splits he's shown during his career. While Minute Maid Park has proven to be hitter-friendly over its lifespan, it's not nearly a haven on the level of Coors Field, where Fowler has batted .298/.395/.485 compared to his .241/.333/.361 career mark at road venues. That vast disparity, along with a history of injuries that has cost him 99 games over the last three seasons, is something to consider on draft day.

Fowler put together the finest season of his four-year career in 2012, setting career-highs in home runs, RBI, batting average and on-base percentage while chipping in his usual double-digit steals. Like many players, he benefited from playing half his games at the generous hitting environment of Coors Field, batting .332/.431/.553 at home compared to .262/.339/.381 on the road. On the heels of his most productive season in the majors, Fowler faces little uncertainty about his place atop what should be a potent lineup, especially with Troy Tulowitzki back after being limited to 47 games with a groin injury last season. However, with several capable outfield options on the 40-man roster, there is a distinct possibility the team may trade Fowler or another outfielder in pursuit of starting pitching. If Fowler were to land elsewhere, it could capsize his value considerably due to his extreme home/road splits.

Fowler matched his previous career-high OBP (.363) last season, but was a disappointment both in the power and speed categories while getting most of his at-bats in the first two spots in the batting order. It's interesting to note that Fowler hit three of his five homers down the stretch in September when he delivered his best overall month (.901 OPS, 3-for-3 on stolen-base attempts). In fact, his second-half line (.288/.381/.498) was a significant improvement and would likely secure his place atop the Colorado lineup if he's able to sustain it. Provided that the Rockies are committed to playing him every day, he's still a viable threat for that long awaited breakout given his combination of tools, lineup placement and home park.

Fowler struggled for much of the early part of the season before being sent down to Triple-A, a level he skipped on his way to the majors. He rediscovered his stroke there, hitting .340/.435/.566 and was back in the bigs in July. After the All-Star break, he hit .280/.343/.432 with four homers, 26 RBI, 41 runs and five steals. He has speed to burn, which makes his low stolen-base total so confusing. To his credit, he improved his strikeout rate (23.7 percent) and continued to play good defense in center field. Moving forward, expect him to start to living up to some of the expectations set before him as a continues to develop. As for his speed, he's too talented not to start to figure things out on the basepaths as long as he gets the green light.

The Rockies made the decision to have Fowler forgo the Triple-A level, and plug him directly in the major league outfield equation. There was some concern whether he would get enough at-bats to justify skipping the PCL, and whether skipping a level of development would stunt his maturation, but Fowler impressed all around. His biggest flaw is his inability to lay off bad pitches, pumping up his strikeout numbers and capping his average at .266, but he was able to get on base at a .363 clip. Look for a statistical improvement in steals, average and home runs this season, as he fine tunes his swing and approach at the plate. He does occasionally yield the leadoff spot to Carlos Gonzalez, however, Fowler should continue to have plenty of table-setting opportunities.

The question isn't whether Fowler can play, but what's taking so long? He hits for average, draws walks, has decent power and good speed, which plays both on the field and the basepaths. He's already a better player than Willy Taveras, and the Rockies need as much OBP as they can get. Fowler will strike out too much to hit .300 or have a .400 OBP, yet still be an above-average center fielder, a bit like Orlando Hudson's bat mixed with Aaron Rowand's glove.

Fowler is one of the more interesting prospects in the Colorado system. He is 6-4 with very good speed and a good eye at the plate. His power did not progress as much as the team hoped in 2007, however and he struck out a bit too much with 65 strikeouts in 245 at-bats. Fowler missed much of the second half of the season with wrist surgery, but did recover and play in the Arizona Fall League. While he struggled with a .224/.325/.308 showing, he looks healthy and a strong showing at Double-A could put him on track to be a factor in the majors in 2009.

Fowler packs an intriguing package of tools into his 6-4 frame. He has speed and his output in Low-A (.296/.373/.462) is impressive for a 20-year-old with limited baseball experience, particularly the OBP. A below-average arm may eventually limit him to left field, but Fowler is a potential 30-30 guy who may be no more than two years from a big league debut despite the lack of experience.