This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC Vegas 47 fight card may not offer much in terms of divisional relevance, but it does promise excitement, with several fights projected to end inside the distance. We'll break down every fight across five platforms, including a sizeable underdog against an all-action fighter, and a former Bellator combatant who will look to make his mark in the UFC. All lines are taken from the William Hill online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Without further Ado, let's get to it
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jailton Almeida ($9,400)
A matchup with a sambo player on The Contender Series didn't stop Almeida from imposing his will, and it's unlikely that he will shy away from the ground against a jiu-jitsu ace like Danilo Marques. While he can rely a bit too much on his ability to scramble, he should have a pronounced strength advantage here, and we have seen Marques get tired after a round or two of hard grappling. Almeida's tendency to throw himself into bad positions may lead to a tense moment or two, but I expect the 30-year-old to find a finish after spending time in top position.
Denys Bondar ($9,100)
Bondar's defense on the feet leaves plenty to be desired, but he will throw hard to close the distance and find his opponent's hips. Despite his credentials as a BJJ black belt, Malcolm Gordon has been out-grappled for large swaths of his UFC career, losing his debut to Amir Albazi by submission. It should also be noted that Gordon has shown poor reactions to getting hit, which means Bondar will have avenues for success no matter where the fight goes.
Shavkat Rakhmonov ($9,000)
Rakhmonov has blown the competition away in his first two UFC appearances, combining strength and grappling ability with an educated jab. Carlston Harris relies on his size and length to control his opponents on the ground, but these attributes likely won't help him here, as he will give up an inch of height and reach to Rakhmonov. Harris was hurt badly by Christian Aguilera before working his way back into that fight, a feat that will be quite a bit tougher if he gets rocked by the 27-year-old.
Tresean Gore ($8,300)
Gore lost the opportunity to compete in The Ultimate Fighter Finale due to injury, but the 27-year old showed good power and counterpunching in his two wins on the show. Bryan Battle was able to turn the tide on Gilbert Urbina in his UFC debut but took an awful lot of damage both on the feet and in bottom position before his short-notice opponent succumbed to fatigue. Both of these men are learning on the job in their young careers, but Gore looks to be a bit more patient and defensively responsible, which could be the difference in this matchup.
Jack Hermansson ($7,400)
Hermansson has never been afraid to take a little damage en route to getting the fight to the floor, and Sean Strickland has been decidedly non-lethal on the feet throughout his career, which should give the Swedish fighter plenty of bites at the apple. While his takedown defense is excellent (82 percent rate) it has been a long time since Strickland has faced a committed wrestler, and few in the division are as physically strong as "The Joker." He may have to endure a tough round or two, but Hermansson should be able to impose his will as the fight drags on, as Strickland's upright stance and lack of footwork will make it difficult for him to stay out of the clinch.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
John Castaneda -2.25X Multiplier
Few people gave Castaneda a chance to knock out veteran Eddie Wineland in his UFC debut, but "Sexi Mexi" took control of the bout in short order using smothering pressure, fancy footwork and big power. Miles Johns may have found a new weapon in the leg kick he used so successfully against Anderson dos Santos, but he remains somewhat limited in terms of his striking arsenal and will be at a significant speed disadvantage here. Johns will have a wrestling approach in his back pocket but seems to have gone away from his grappling in recent fights in order to preserve his cardio.
Chidi Njokuani – 1.95X Multiplier
True to his nickname, Marc-Andre Barriault has weaponized his cardio and physicality to take fights away from his opponents in the later rounds. The issue here is that Njoukuani will be the taller fighter, which should allow him to employ knees and elbows in the clinch. If the former Bellator fighter is able to win that position, it's difficult to see where Barriault finds success, as he's never been a strong control grappler and will enter into this fight with a six-inch reach disadvantage.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Philip Rowe UNDER nine Minutes of Fight Time and Puna Soriano OVER 10 Minutes of Fight Time
Both fights have similar dynamics, as in each case, a dedicated wrestler will need to get the fight to the ground before a heavy-handed striker is able to get their game going. Rowe has been excellent at using his length and footwork to control action, and Jason Witt has taken a tremendous amount of damage in his UFC career. We also saw Rowe get back to his feet multiple times in his fight with Sasha Palatnikov. The longer this fight remains on the feet, the more likely a finish becomes.
Soriano is an incredibly heavy-handed combination puncher but has been a bit of a head hunter in his career thus far, which may result in fewer finishes as he rises through the ranks of competition. Nick Maximov has been durable in his young career and should be able to see the shots coming and get inside to create grappling exchanges and prolong the bout.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Alexis Davis OVER 108.5 Strikes and Julija Stoliarenko OVER 60.5 Strikes
Davis has lost four of her last five fights, but "Ally-Gator" has been extremely active in those bouts, eclipsing 108.5 strikes in each of her last four appearances. Stoliarenko has been less successful in this regard but threw with reckless abandon at times in her fight with Julia Avila. Both of these women are accomplished grapplers, which could result in a striking battle, featuring short shots in the clinch.
Hakeem Dawodu OVER 74.5 Strikes and Mike Trizano UNDER 65.5 Strikes
Dawodu's strike totals have been suppressed recently, but we can't overlook the fact that his last two fights have been against two heavily committed wrestlers in Movsar Evloev and Zubaira Tukhugov. Dawodu should get back to his high-volume ways against Trizano, who likes to pour on the pressure, but will be at a tremendous speed and agility disadvantage in this matchup. This should lead to "Mean" picking off his opponent from range and not being there to be hit by counter shots.
Brendan Allen OVER 56.5 Strikes and Sam Alvey OVER 67.5 Strikes
Alvey is known for fighting at an incredibly slow pace, so it may surprise some to learn that he has hit the above mark in three of his last four fights. It's easy to see how he could get over the hurdle again against Allen, who has attempted almost five strikes per minute in his UFC career. "All In" has had his totals cut short by finishes of late, but Alvey has secured a KO/TKO finish in just one of his last five victories, which gives us an indication that these fighters will be throwing hands for the better part of 15 minutes.
Bets to Consider
Steven Peterson (+240)
Julian Erosa showed improved defense against Charles Jourdain but was still dropped once in the contest, absorbing 95 significant strikes before finding a submission in the third round. Peterson will be relentless in his pursuit of Erosa on the feet, and should put his 58 percent takedown defense rate to the test. Peterson is a BJJ brown belt who has never been submitted in his 28-fight career, which will leave Erosa without an escape hatch if he gets into trouble during the bout. While he has looked better of late, "Juicy J" has been something of a loveable journeyman throughout his career, and I don't see anything that makes me think "sizeable favorite" in the improvements that he has made.
