This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 83 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight
Yadong Song (20-7-1, 1NC) v. Chris Gutierrez (20-5-2)
DK Salaries: Song ($9,200), Gutierrez ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Song (-380), Gutierrez (+300)
There was a report in September that Song was scheduled to face Petr Yan here. It was never officially confirmed, but given the fact this matchup was announced about a month before the scheduled event, it's certainly plausible.
A member of the UFC roster for more than six years now, Song somehow just turned 26 years of age days ago. He's 4-1 in his past five fights, with the lone setback being a doctor's stoppage defeat to top bantamweight contender Cory Sandhagen in September 2022. Song has high-end power for a smaller fighter and has legitimately improved during his time with the company. His ultimate ceiling is to be determined, but he's a definite top-ten guy, even in arguably the deepest division in the sport.
Gutierrez is another guy on a roll. He's 8-1-1 in his past ten fights. Chris struggled in a lopsided unanimous decision loss to Pedro Munhoz in April, but rebounded with an easy unanimous decision win over Heili Alateng in mid-October. He's looking at a short turnaround here, but Gutierrez barely broke a sweat in the Alateng bout, so he should be ready to go.
There's a real gap here in terms of the competition level both men have faced. Gutierrez's only notable opponents are Munhoz and Frankie Edgar (in what was the final fight of Edgar's career). Song has fought the likes of Sandhagen, Ricky Simon and Marlon Vera. He's also faced a reasonable group of second-tier guys such as Marlon Moraes and Cody Stamann.
I expect this to be a back-and-forth kickboxing match. Both men can wrestle in a pinch, but it isn't a strength of either. Both make their living as aggressive, volume strikers.
Gutierrez is probably more technically sound, while Song definitely has an edge in terms of pure power.
This is going to come down to how well Chris is able to defend himself on the feet. On average, he absorbs just 2.73 significant strikes per minute, a shockingly low number for a guy that always finds himself in stand-up brawls. He's talented enough to fire off plenty of volume and make life miserable for Song over the course of five rounds, but the latter is the heavy favorite to land the more meaningful blows, something that seems likely to be the difference.
I have time for Gutierrez given his very cheap DK salary, but I think Song wins.
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Song
Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith (37-18-0) v. Khalil Rountree (13-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Smith ($7,300), Rountree ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Smith (+200), Rountree (-245)
Rountree was due to face Azamat Murzakanov on last week's card before an illness forced the latter's withdrawal. Smith agreed to step in and the bout was pushed back a week, giving this card a much-needed boost.
Smith, a former title challenger at 205 pounds, is somehow still just 35 years old despite the fact Saturday will be his 56th professional fight. He's 2-2 in his past four fights, with both of the wins coming over Ryan Spann. Anthony's toughness is legendary, and he keeps himself in excellent shape. I see no reason he can't remain semi-relevant moving forward as long as the UFC is careful regarding who they match up him against, but the days of him hanging with the best light heavyweights in the world are likely over.
Rountree is in the midst of by far his best run to date, winning four in a row including three via knockout. It looks great on the surface, but then you realize the KO's came over Modestas Bukauskas, Karl Roberso, and Chris Daukaus and the fourth win was a split decision over Dustin Jacoby, and it's not as exciting. Rountree has big power and is very explosive, particularly in short spurts, so he possesses the skill set to potentially give the aging Smith trouble.
Anthony has 14 career wins via submission, but he averages just 0.52 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's not a wrestler, meaning it's very difficult to predict when those opportunities may materialize. That said, Rountree has never landed a takedown in his UFC run, so Smith would be wise to try and flip the script and ground his opposition for 15 minutes.
By far the most likely scenario is this turns into a back-and-forth slugfest for as long as it lasts. Both men absorb more significant strikes than they land, so I expect plenty of volume both ways. The reach is even despite Smith's three-inch height edge.
I've never been a big Rountree guy. He struggles with consistency and has never been able to beat anyone of note, but you don't have to do a lot to get by Smith at this stage of his career.
Rountree is the pick, almost by default, but I have little interest backing Khalil given his inflated price tag. The same can be said for Smith as an underdog. I'd rather save the $300 and ride with Gutierrez if I need a "punt" play for my lineup.
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Rountree
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast (15-5-0) v. Jamie Mullarkey (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Haqparast ($8,700), Mullarkey ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Haqparast (-220), Mullarkey (+180)
I've always believed Haqparast has more potential than what we've seen to date, but he's been so inconsistent that I'm not so sure anymore. He's currently on a two-fight winning streak, built on the heels of a two-fight losing streak. Prior to that he had won his previous two. So while the 4-2 mark in his last six is fine, the two losses came against Bobby Green and Dan Hooker, really the only legitimate competition he faced during that stretch. At 28 years of age, this may just be who he is.
This will be Mullarkey's fourth fight of 2023. He's won two of the prior three, taking unanimous decisions from John Makdessi and Francisco Prado sandwiched around a knockout loss to Muhammadjon Naimov. Mullarkey was the biggest favorite on the card against Naimov at upwards of -500. My guess is Mullarkey will be lucky to hover around the .500 mark moving forward, and I'll touch on why in a second.
In terms of striking, these two are mirror images of each other. Both throw a ton of volume on the feet and are more than willing to eat a strike in order to land two of their own. Jamie definitely has the power edge, as each of Haqparast's last six fights have gone to a decision.
Mullarkey is also the more likelier of the two to wrestle. He averages 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's gotten four of his last six opponents to the mat, including multiple fights in which he landed three successful takedowns. That said, I certainly wouldn't call Mullarkey a pure grappler. He has just three career wins via submission, and he's not entering the Octagon looking to wrestle. He's a brawler that will shoot if the circumstances dictate.
At 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach, Nasrat is a big lightweight. I'm curious to see how he will fare as the smaller man, as Mullarkey has a two-inch edge in both height and reach.
When push comes to shove, I simply don't see $1200 in difference in terms of salary between these two. Both struggle with consistency and lack technical skill. I would have Nasrat at more like -150 and $8200-$8300. The savings are great enough to hope Mullarkey is able to get his wrestling game going or Haqparast makes a mistake as a hefty favorite.
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Mullarkey
Middleweight
Andre Muniz (23-6-0) v. Jun Yong Park (17-5-0)
DK Salaries: Muniz ($7,400), Park ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Muniz (+160), Park (-190)
A victor on both Dana White's Contender Series and Dana White's Contender Series: Brazil, Muniz looked like an obvious breakout candidate upon his official November 2019 company arrival. He won each of his first five UFC bouts, including three via submission, before running into trouble of late. He was submitted by Brendan Allen this past February, which is entirely reasonable as Allen is quite good, but it was his knockout loss to Paul Craig -- a noted grappler with virtually no power -- in late-July that was highly concerning. Muniz looked fine early in the fight before giving up two easy takedowns and seemingly crumbling on the spot. There's a non-zero chance his job is on the line here.
Park enters red hot, having won four in a row and seven of eight dating back to December 2019. The last three wins have come via submission, although it must be noted he's faced lower-end competition nearly his entire UFC run. His best win to date is probably Marc-Andre Barriault. Muniz, even with his recent struggles, figures to be by far Park's toughest test to date.
Park is a ton of fun to watch. He tends to work almost entirely behind his jab and is incredibly durable. He pushes forward constantly and is a better athlete than he gets credit for. I imagine there will be some struggles forthcoming, but the recent returns are positive.
I have zero idea what to make of Muniz. On paper, he should win this fight. He's three inches taller and will enter with a whopping five-inch reach edge. He's definitely more explosive, particularly in short spurts, but I don't know how you can trust him following the Craig performance. His career takedown defense is a woeful 35 percent, so it's not as if this is a new issue for him.
Again, the price tag on Park is too high, but I'm actively looking for reasons to fade Muniz after the Craig performance. We've seen Park battle out of tough circumstances before and you know he's always going to fight for your dollar. The same can't be said of Muniz.
I'd be far from surprised if we get a strong rebound performance from Andre here, but I can't back him until I see it with my own two eyes.
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Park
Other Bouts
Flyweight
Su Mudaerji (16-5-0) v. Tim Elliott (19-13-1)
DK Salaries: Su ($7,100), Elliott (TBD)
Vegas Odds: TBD
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: TBD
Welterweight
Song Kenan (20-7-0) v. Kevin Jousset (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Song ($7,700), Jousset ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Song (+140), Jousset (-170)
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Jousset
Flyweight
Hyun Sung Park (8-0-0) v. Shannon Ross (13-8-0)
DK Salaries: Park ($9,500), Ross ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Park (-425), Ross (+330)
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Park
Women's Bantamweight
Luana Santos (6-1-0) v. Stephanie Egger (8-4-0)
DK Salaries: Santos ($8,600), Egger ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Santos (-180), Egger (+150)
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Santos
Flyweight
Tatsuro Taira (14-0-0) v. Carlos Hernandez (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Taira ($9,400), Hernandez ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Taira (-410), Hernandez (+320)
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Taira
Women's Strawweight
Rayanne dos Santos (14-6-0) v. Talita Alencar (4-0-1)
DK Salaries: Amanda ($8,300), Alencar ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Amanda (-155), Alencar (+130)
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Alencar
Lightweight
Steve Garcia (14-5-0) v. Melquizael Costa (20-6-0)
DK Salaries: Garcia ($7,200), Costa ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Garcia (+225), Costa (-275)
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Costa
Catch Weight (140 Pounds)
Daniel Marcos (15-0-0) v. Carlos Vera (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Marcos ($9,600), Vera ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Marcos (-500), Vera (+360)
UFC VEGAS 83 PICK: Marcos
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 83 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
