Target Breakdown: WR & TE Usage Report + Week 5 Waivers Preview

Box Score Breakdown

Backfield Breakdown

Target Breakdown ⬇️   

Weekly Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

• WR Rashee Rice (knee)
• WR Malik Nabers (concussion)
• WR Christian Watson (high-ankle sprain)
• WR Demarcus Robinson (groin)
• WR Khalil Shakir (ankle)
• WR Trey Palmer (concussion
• TE George Kittle (ribs / day-to-day)
• TE Taysom Hill (ribs / day-to-day)

The injury to Chiefs WR Rashee Rice was the biggest fantasy story of Week 4, potentially bringing an early end to what looked like a high-end WR1 campaign. Early reports suggested an ACL tear, but more recent updates have conveyed uncertainty, with the only thing confirmed so far being that Rice won't play Week 5 against the Saints.

Giants WR Malik Nabers suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter of Thursday's loss to Dallas. Three extra days between games could make all the difference for his availability Week 5 at Seattle.

Packers WR Christian Watson seems much less likely to avoid an absence, although reports suggest his high-ankle sprain isn't too severe. He'd been splitting snaps with Dontayvion Wicks, who took advantage of Watson's absence to the tune of 13 targets and a pair of TDs despite struggling with drops again.

Rams WR Demarcus Robinson played a full game Sunday at Chicago and is expected to play Week 5, per Sean McVay, but the Rams coach did say Robinson will be limited in practice this week. Robinson hasn't been seeing many targets anyway, largely running clear-out routes while Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington increasingly become Matthew Stafford's favorite targets.

Bills WR Khalil Shakir seems to be in the same boat as Robinson, having played a full game Week 4 but coming out of it with an injury. In Shakir's case it's a sore ankle, making him day-to-day ahead of a clash with the Texans in Houston.

Add Bucs WR Mike Evans (knee/calf) and Falcons WR Ray-Ray McCloud to the list of wideouts that are listed on Week 5 injury reports after handling their normal roles Week 4. They play Thursday night, which could make things tricky, but I'm guessing Evans at least will be fine.

Missed Week 4

• WR Tank Dell (ribs / day-to-day) 
• WR A.J. Brown (hamstring / day-to-day)
• WR DeVonta Smith (concussion / day-to-day) 
• WR Davante Adams (hamstring / week-to-week)
• WR Cooper Kupp (ankle / out Week 5)
• WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring / week-to-week)
• WR Marquise Brown (IR - shoulder / likely out for season)
• WR Puka Nacua (IR - knee / likely out until November)
• WR Odell Beckham (PUP - unspecified / eligible Week 5)
• WR Kendrick Bourne (PUP - knee / eligible Week 5)
• WR Ricky Pearsall (NFI - chest / eligible Week 5)
• WR DJ Chark (IR - hip / eligible Week 5)

Eagles WR A.J. Brown returned to practice late last week and thus figures to be ready after a Week 5 bye, at which point teammate DeVonta Smith likely will have cleared concussion protocol, giving QB Jalen Hurts all his key weapons for the first time since Week 1.

Things look much worse for the Rams, with coach Sean McVay having already ruled out Cooper Kupp (ankle) for Week 5. The quick decision suggests Kupp may not be ready after a Week 6 bye, and it sounds like Puka Nacua (knee) has almost no chance to be available by then (the latest reports have him out through at least Week 8).

Texans WR Tank Dell (ribs) is expected back for Week 5 after missing just one game, while Raiders WR Davante Adams (hamstring) seems more likely to require multiple absences. Raiders coach Antonio Pierce said Adams' Week 5 availability will depend on practice participation, but Adam Schefter's Sunday report didn't sound promising for Adams, labeling the star wideout week-to-week. Adding to the intrigue, Adams reportedly wants to be traded, which isn't exactly shocking.

• TE Trey McBride (concussion / day-to-day)
• TE David Njoku (ankle / week-to-week)
• TE Evan Engram (hamstring / week-to-week)
• TE Michael Mayer (personal / day-to-day)
• TE Tanner Hudson (knee / week-to-week)
• TE Tyler Higbee (PUP - ACL / eligible Week 5)
• TE T.J. Hockenson (PUP - ACL / eligible Week 5)
• TE Ian Thomas (IR - calf)

The lack of updates on Hockenson and Higbee suggests they're not especially likely to return when first eligible (this week), which makes sense given the severity and late-season timing of their Kerby Joseph-inflicted knee tears.

Jaguars TE Evan Engram hasn't practiced or played since injuring his hamstring during pregame warmups Week 2, and the team hasn't commented much on his progress (or lack thereof). Browns TE David Njoku has also missed three straight games, but coach Kevin Stefanski said Monday that Njoku will return to practice this week. Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon gave a non-specific-but-optimistic update Monday on TE Trey McBride, who missed Week 4 after entering concussion protocol Week 3.

Stock Report 📊

I'm focusing on role/usage more so than results/performance here, although there are certainly cases where the two are related or poor per-target efficiency can't just be written off as a small-sample or matchup problem. Unless otherwise specified, the target, route and air-yard shares shown next to each player are from the first three games combined. I'll use 'W4' to denote stats from just the last game.

• AYS = Air-Yard Share (percent of team's air yards in games a player participated in)
• TS = Target Share (percent of team's targets in games a player participated in)

Trending Up 📈

Wide Receivers 📈

Nico Collins - 29% TPRR - 29% TS - 48% AYS - 489 yards

Brian Thomas - 24% TPRR - 21% TS - 27% AYS - 10.6 YPT  /  W4: 9 tgts, 133 AY (6-86-1)

Christian Kirk - 24% TPRR - 24% TS - 30% AYS  /  W4: 12 tgts, 170 AY (7-61-1)

Rashid Shaheed - 27% TPRR - 26% TS - 49% AYS  /  W4: 11 tgts (8-83-0) + 2 carries

George Pickens - 29% TPRR - 28% TS - 55% AYS  /  W4: 11 tgts, 150 AY (7-113-0)

Courtland Sutton - 29% TPRR - 27% TS - 47% AYS  /  W4: 9 tgts (3-60-1)

Mike Evans - 24% TPRR - 23% TS - 43% AY  /  W4: 14 tgts, 153 AY (8-94-1)

Terry McLaurin -  28% TPRR - 27% TS - 57% AYS  /  W4: 10 tgts, 110 AY (7-52-1

Xavier Legette - 22% TPRR  /  W4: 90% routes, 10 tgts, 90 AY (6-66-1 + 2-10-0 rushing)

Dontayvion Wicks - 28% TPRR - 30% AYS  /  W4: 78% routes, 13 tgts, 210 AY (5-78-2)

Xavier Worthy - W4: 74% snaps, 84% routes, 4 tgts, 56 AY (3-73-1)

Ladd McConkey - 29% TPRR - 27% TS - 33% AYS  /  W4: 86% routes, 55 AY, 7 tgts (5-67-1)

Jordan Whittington - 23% TPRR  /  W4: 100% routes, team-high 8 tgts (6-62-0)

Josh Downs - 39% TPRR - 30% TS /  W4: 9 tgts (8-82-1)

Ja'Lynn Polk -  W4: 82% snaps, 87% routes, 7 tgts, 105 AY (3-30-0)

Tutu Atwell - 22% PRR  /  W4: 91% routes, six tgts (4-82-0)

Wan'Dale Robinson - 28% TS - 32% TPRR  /  W4: 14 tgts (11-71-0)

Justin Watson - W4: 69% snaps, 72% routes, 3 tgts (2-27-0)

There are an awful lot of rookies here, including under-the-radar Ja'Lynn Polk, who was a part-time player Weeks 1-3 before leading the Patriots in routes and targets this past Sunday. He's stuck in a terrible offense, of course, but it could perhaps progress from 'F' grade to 'D+' by the end of the year if the O-line gets healthier and Drake Maye eventually makes starts (and plays reasonably well).

The other huge gainer in terms of snap/route share this past weekend was Rams WR Jordan Whittington, who was on the field for every single pass play and had six catches for 62 yards on a team-high eight targets. He had a lot of hype this summer but was stuck behind Tyler Johnson until Week 4.

Tight Ends 📈

Jake Ferguson - 22% TS - 28% TPRR

Cole Kmet - 21% TPRR / W4: 93% snaps, 73% routes

Pat Freiermuth - 21% TPRR - 19% TS - 80% routes  /  W4: 7 tgts (5-57-1) 

Tucker Kraft - W4: 85% snaps, 80% routes, 9 tgts, 50 AY (6-53-1 + lost fumble)

Erick All - 30% TPRR  / three straight games w/ 4 catches  /  W4: 61% snaps, 35% routes

It's hard to find cause for optimism at tight end right now, but Ferguson has arguably the strongest usage rates in the league, which may be going unnoticed by some because he hasn't scored a TD yet and missed five quarter of actions (the end of Week 1 plus all of Week 2). Kmet, meanwhile, has left Gerald Everett in the dust the past two weeks, albeit with very different results in terms of target volume and fantasy scoring. Freiermuth is still ceding a decent number of snaps to other tight ends but is rarely off the field for pass plays and hasn't needed long to confirm he's the second best pass catcher in Pittsburgh.

Trending Down 📉

Wide Receivers 📉

Calvin Ridley - 17% TPRR  /  W4: 3 tgts (1-5-0)

DeAndre Hopkins - 42% routes  /  W4: 31% snaps, 55% routes, 4 tgts (2-31-0)

Brandon Aiyuk - 22% TPRR - 21% TS - 24% AYS - 6.7 YPT

Jauan Jennings - W4: 57% snaps, 64% routes (but with 88 yards on six tgts)

Gabe Davis - 18% TPRR - 17% TS - 24% AYS  /  W4: 5 tgts (minus-two yards)

Tyquan Thornton - W4: 21% snaps, 16% routes, 1 tgt (0 catches)

Josh Reynolds - W4: 41% snaps, 52% routes, 2 tgts (0 catches)

Tyler Johnson - W4: 17% snaps, 13% routes

Ridley and Hopkins have issues with both volume and efficiency in a lifeless Titans offense, although they might get a slight temporary boost if Will Levis (shoulder) misses time and is replaced by Mason Rudolph. 

Aiyuk is an obvious candidate for positive regression, but he's not playing as well as he did last season and now has Jennings as more of a threat than ever to eat into the target share. Jennings had another strong game after his Week 3 bonanza, though his playing time unsurprisingly took a big hit with Deebo Samuel back from a calf injury. The Niners might eventually consider giving Jennings more of Aiyuk's snaps, but that would be more of a November/December consideration (if Aiyuk continues to struggle), not something that will happen one month after signing Aiyuk to a massive extension.

Tight Ends 📉

Kyle Pitts - 15% TPRR - 13% TS - 16% AYS  /  W4: 65% snaps, 67% routes, 3 tgts (0 catches)

Mark Andrews - 14% TPRR - 9% TS - 11% AYS  /  W4: 45% routes, 1 tgt (dropped)

Brock Bowers - 7 tgts past two games, after 17 in his first two games

Mike Gesicki - W4: 32% snaps, 55% routes, 1 tgt (minus-9 yards)

Greg Dulcich - 16% TPRR  /  W4: 38% snaps, 52% routes, 1 tgt (0 catches)

Gerald Everett - 8% TPRR / W4: 33% snaps, 19% routes

Bowers' slump is more of a mild concern, whereas Andrews and Pitts look like flat-out busts. Andrews is even droppable in some leagues, following consecutive games getting less than 50% of the available snaps and routes. It's one thing to not get targets because your team is running a lot, but Andrews is also losing snaps in clear passing situations to Isaiah Likely. And even when he does run routes, Andrews has been targeted just 9 percent of the time.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

*Only includes players rostered in 60 percent or less in Yahoo Leagues

Wide Receivers

Potential Starters

1. Ladd McConkey - 56% 
2. Jakobi Meyers - 52%
3. Dontayvion Wicks - 14% 
4. Jordan Whittington - 3%
5. Xavier Legette - 14% 
6. Josh Downs - 20% 
7. Wan'Dale Robinson - 26% 
8. Romeo Doubs - 40%
9. Tyler Lockett - 57%
10. Jerry Jeudy - 48%
11. Darnell Mooney - 47% 
12. Tutu Atwell - 8%
13. Michael Wilson - 17%
14. Gabe Davis - 27%
15. Ray-Ray McCloud - 5%
16. Rashod Bateman - 10%
17. Darius Slayton - 1%

There are a lot of good options available on waivers this week, even in relatively deep leagues. It's tricky parsing out the Week 5 value vs. rest-of-season expectations, especially for someone like Downs who could get a huge temporary boost if QB Anthony Richardson (torso) and RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) miss time. Legette and Robinson are perhaps less dependent on teammate injuries to have value, but they don't have the same efficiency upside as Wicks and Whittington, both of whom are paired with solid QBs.

Bench Stashes

1. Keon Coleman - 51%
2. Quentin Johnston - 43%
3. Ja'Lynn Polk - 9%
4. Tre Tucker - 9%
5. Troy Franklin - 1%

Drops

• Christian Watson (high ankle)
• Alec Pierce
• Brandin Cooks
• Demarcus Robinson
• Joshua Palmer
• Curtis Samuel
• Jalen Nailor
• Adonai Mitchell
• Jahan Dotson
• Tyler Johnson

Tight Ends

Recommended Adds

1. Tucker Kraft - 4%
2. Taysom Hill (ribs) - 39%
3. Colby Parkinson - 26%
4. Tyler Conklin - 35%
5. Hunter Henry - 37%
6. Cade Otton - 15%
7. Erick All - 1%

Kraft has dominated snaps in both of Jordan Love's starts this year, catching eight of 12 targets for 90 yards and a TD in those games while handling snap shares of 96 percent (Week 1) and 85 percent (Week 4). He shared more work with Luke Musgrave when Malik Willis was under center, but Kraft did get five targets between those two games even with the Packers running the ball a ton. Kraft's 18% TPRR is a solid number for a tight end; if he maintains that rate and also maintains his snap dominance (big 'ifs', admittedly) he'll be a solid TE1 for fantasy. It's worth taking a shot on, even if we acknowledge risks about the target rate dropping and/or Musgrave poaching more snaps.

Drops

• Mark Andrews (shallow leagues)
• Mike Gesicki
• Noah Fant
• Luke Musgrave