NFL Waiver Wire: Week 5 Deep Dive

More and more data piles in as we head into the fifth week of game action. While data points can still be misleading, it's a bit easier to see trends and players who are slowly gaining and losing roles. We'll hit on the most intriguing in this article, with the goal being to provide options for those who play in both shallower and deeper formats. 

Quarterback

Sam Darnold vs. Eagles (33 percent ESPN)

Darnold presumably remains this available due to his failures in New York. However, he's shown to be a different quarterback early this season with 16 completions of 20 yards or more while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. Add a shocking five rushing touchdowns, and Darnold has proven to offer a strong production floor.

Daniel Jones at Cowboys (38 percent ESPN)

Jones hasn't produced the touchdown production to match his level of play so far. He's averaged a career-best 8.2 yards per attempt and only turned the ball over twice. Jones has also thrown for at least 249 yards in each contest while chipping in at least 25 rushing yards.

Justin Fields at Raiders (35 percent ESPN)

At this point, Fields is an emergency starting fantasy quarterback. But as he's been named the starter and bye weeks will soon begin, now may be the time to stash him where available.

Matt Ryan vs. Jets (31 percent ESPN)

Ryan logged an average depth of target of 4.8 yards in Weeks 2 and 3 and that spiked to 12.5 last Sunday. Whether that was a one-week aberration or a return to form for remains to be seen, but the narrative he was done as a productive NFL QB may have been a bit oversold.

Taylor Heinicke vs. Saints (12 percent ESPN, 24 percent FFPC)

This probably isn't the week to start Heinicke, as the Saints are among the stingiest teams against opposing quarterbacks. However, he's thrown multiple touchdowns in three consecutive outings and has looked decent on the ground. Heinicke will face Kansas City and Green Bay in Weeks 6 and 7 respectively, contests where he should have to take to the air quite a bit.

Zach Wilson at Falcons (seven percent ESPN)

Wilson had been dreadful for the majority of his first three games as a pro, but he managed an impressive statistical performance to lead the Jets to a win against the Titans in Week 4 while also passing the eye test by dropping in a few beautiful passes to his receivers. The Falcons are among the most generous teams to opposing QBs this year, so Wilson could be a viable emergency starter.

Running Back

Latavius Murray vs. Colts (44 percent ESPN)

Murray was a common drop in ESPN leagues, a strange trend given he saw a season-best 62 percent share of the team rushing attempts in Week 4. He's surpassed Ty'Son Williams and will have to now deal with Le'Veon Bell, but Baltimore seems happy to have Murray pace the backfield.

Kenneth Gainwell at Panthers (33 percent ESPN)

Gainwell is carving out a role as the receiving back in Philadelphia and has posted a target share of 11 percent on the season. He's yet to cut significantly into Miles Sanders workload on the ground, but it shouldn't be a surprise if that occurs at some point later in the schedule.

Brandon Bolden at Texans (four percent ESPN, 18 percent FFPC)

Bolden operated as the team's second back behind Damien Harris in Week 4 after James White suffered a season-ending injury. Bolden appears to have taken over the pass-catcher role out of the backfield for now, though the team likely won't go to the air much to take down the lowly Texans.

Larry Rountree vs. Browns (two percent ESPN, 46 percent FFPC)

Rountree racked up 11 carries compared to Austin Ekeler's 15 in Monday's win over the Raiders. More importantly, he was on the field significantly more than Justin Jackson and is therefore the Chargers' change-of-pace back to roster.

Le'Veon Bell vs. Colts (16 percent ESPN, 38 percent FFPC)

We have no idea what type of form Bell will be in, but he's been elevated to the active roster. The most likely scenario is that he won't help fantasy teams at any point this season, but that doesn't mean he isn't worth speculating on for a week to see how Baltimore sorts out its backfield. 

Chris Evans vs. Packers (one percent ESPN, 22 percent FFPC)

Samaje Perine should be the top back in Cincinnati in the absence of Joe Mixon. But Evans started to make inroads towards the receiving back role even prior to Mixon going down, so his usage is worth monitoring.  

Jeremy McNichols at Jaguars (three percent ESPN, 17 percent FFPC)

There's little doubt McNichols' 12 targets in Week 4 were a fluke. However, both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones remain questionable heading into this weekend and the Titans' offensive line remains a disaster and that means short dumpoffs should remain common. A matchup against Jacksonville isn't likely to produce shootout offensive production, so this could be a stash play.

Darrynton Evans at Jaguars (two percent ESPN, 76 percent FFPC)

Evans was designated to return from injured reserve Wednesday, meaning he'll be activated at some point over the next 21 days. He may take over as the Titans' second back in Tennessee when that occurs, though Jeremy McNichols seems fairly entrenched in that role.

Rodney Smith vs. Eagles (zero percent ESPN, zero percent FFPC)

Christian McCaffrey could be back in Week 5, which would obliterate the tiny amount of value Smith currently holds. If McCaffrey remains out, Smith should be the team's second back behind Chuba Hubbard and will likely see at least a handful of touches.

Wide Receiver

Hunter Renfrow vs. Bears (50 percent ESPN)

Renfrow was likely added during the standard waiver run, but check the player pool to make sure that's the case in your league. He's seen no fewer than six targets in any game this season and provides a solid floor, even if there's no huge ceiling.

Darnell Mooney at Raiders (47 percent)

Mooney leads the Bears in any peripheral metric you want to cite, most importantly air yards and targets. Presumably, we haven't seen the full Justin Fields offense yet in Chicago, so Mooney's stock could spike quickly if the pair show rapport.

Christian Kirk vs. 49ers (35 percent)

Kirk produced a disappointing stat line in Week 4, but remained just as involved in terms of snaps and routes run. It'll be difficult to lock into a Cardinals' receiver aside from DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green on a weekly basis, but Kirk remains a significant part of the team's offensive plans.  

Tim Patrick at Steelers (33 percent)

Patrick becomes considerably less interesting if Drew Lock is the Broncos' starting quarterback, but he's held a consistent spot in the offense. He's the third priority behind both Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, but the team's targets appear to be condensed enough that Patrick will still see reliable volume.

Jamison Crowder at Falcons (25 percent)

The common narrative throughout the summer was that Elijah Moore would slowly take over the slot role in the Jets' offense and push Crowder out of a role. While both Moore and Crowder have been banged up at points this season, the former only lists a 15.6 percent slot rate. The point of this is to say the two should coexist, and Crowder showed an instant connection with Zach Wilson during his 2021 debut last weekend by commanding a 27 percent target share.

Bryan Edwards vs. Bears (12 percent)

Edwards led the team's receiver corps in snaps and routes run in a loss to the Chargers. That didn't translate to production, though the whole Raiders offense was out of sync. In deeper leagues, don't give up on Edwards if he's already on your roster.

Van Jefferson at Seahawks (eight percent)

Jefferson has essentially become the team's 2B wide receiver alongside Robert Woods. Perhaps that will change as the club seeks to get Woods more involved, but Jefferson is clearly gaining some footing in the Rams' attack.

Quintez Cephus at Vikings (seven percent ESPN, 52 percent FFPC)

Cephus posted a discouraging performance in Week 3, but has nevertheless been a consistent producer. He ran rates on 90 percent of the team's dropbacks the previous contest with a 20 percent target rate. And in Week 4, those marks were 81 and 14 percent. Detroit's offense is inconsistent in terms of both results and which players are involved, but Cephus remains a name worth a flyer/monitoring depending on your league's depth.

Kadarius Toney at Cowboys (four percent ESPN, 53 percent FFPC)

Toney took a huge jump in involvement last Sunday thanks to the absence of both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. Both could remain out, making Toney an intriguing add.

Rondale Moore vs. 49ers (48 percent)

Fantasy managers are starting to get frustrated with Moore as A.J. Green has consistently been both more involved in the offense and more productive. Moore can't be a start this week, as he hasn't surpassed 40 percent route participation since Week 2. But any injury among the Cardinals' receiver corps would make him suddenly much more interesting.

Kalif Raymond at Vikings (two percent ESPN, three percent FFPC)

No, Raymond won't score two touchdowns every week. However, like Cephus, he's been heavily involved in the offense early this season by getting 81/75 percent routes run and 36/17 percent target share the last two weeks. Raymond's not a comfortable start by any means, but he's an interesting add if he can consistently emerge among the Lions' receiver corps.   

Cedrick Wilson vs. Giants (one percent ESPN, eight percent FFPC)

The Cowboys haven't had a lot of pass volume early this year, which has held down even the main offensive contributors. As such, Wilson has only accumulated nine receptions through four outings. Dallas should be able to control the game script again in Week 5 against the Giants, but Amari Cooper could be limited - or even miss - Sunday's contest.

Josh Reynolds at Jaguars (zero percent ESPN, 23 percent FFPC)

Reynolds ran 50 routes and commanded nine targets and 141 air yards against the Jets. If both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones remain sidelined, Reynolds would be in line as a primary beneficiary.

Josh Gordon vs. Bills (23 percent ESPN, 27 percent FFPC)

It's good to see Gordon back in the league, but it's also difficult to imagine him being productive enough to make a fantasy impact. Even so, he could be Patrick Mahomes third or fourth target if he can stick and that alone is enough reason to pay attention. 

Tight End

Dalton Schultz vs. Giants (48 percent ESPN, 76 percent FFPC)

Schultz represents the Cowboys' top tight end. He won't keep up his ridiculous touchdown rate, but it's clear Dak Prescott trusts him and is willing to consistently look his way.

Tyler Conklin vs. Lions (21 percent ESPN, 63 percent FFPC)

Conklin is essentially equal to K.J. Osborn as the Vikings' third receiver in terms of volume. His aDOT on the season is just 3.5 yards, so don't expect big plays. On the other hand, Conklin has seen 13 percent of the team's end zone targets and that should help him produce at a usable fantasy level.

Zach Ertz at Panthers (18 percent ESPN)

Ertz and Dallas Goedert take away value from each other in Philly. But after seeing a combined four targets across the first two weeks of the season, Ertz has managed a combined 15 targets across the last two.

Hunter Henry at Texans (36 percent ESPN)

Henry has run far more routes than Jonnu Smith, but has actually been out-targeted the last three contests. Even so, Henry has averaged nearly five targets per game and that's enough to provide a safe floor given the poor production available at the position.

Evan Engram at Cowboys (30 percent ESPN)

Engram got more involved in the offense in his second week back, at least in part to the absence of Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard. The duo could remain out, which would likely lead to solid opportunity for him to produce.

Maxx Williams vs. 49ers (five percent ESPN, 17 percent FFPC)

Williams has seen his routes run rate dip in each of the last three appearances, yet he's gotten by on unsustainable efficiency. Since Week 1, he's recorded a reception on all 15 of his targets. Yet, Williams is attached to one of the NFL's best offenses and is therefore worth considering.

Will Dissly vs. Rams (one percent ESPN, 16 percent FFPC)

Gerald Everett is sidelined and won't play Thursday. In his absence, Dissly's route participation spiked from 24 to 63 percent and target share from four to nine percent in Week 4.

C.J. Uzomah vs. Packers (four percent ESPN, 34 percent FFPC)

Uzomah displayed an outstanding performance in Week 4 with Tee Higgins sidelined. Higgins appears in line to return, which would likely downgrade Uzomah once again. That said, this a situation where it will be worth monitoring the news later in the week.

Dan Arnold vs. Titans (one percent ESPN, 68 percent FFPC)

Arnold played a decent role in his Jags' debut and should continue to see his role expand as he learns the offense and gains rapport with Trevor Lawrence. DJ Chark's season-ending injury also leaves a few more targets available to be distributed to Arnold and his offensive teammates.