Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Drafting from Slots 10-12

This is the fourth in our series with pick-by-pick strategic breakdowns of how to approach a fantasy draft from any given draft slot. Check out the rest of the Draft Strategy series:

Drafting from Slots 1-3
Drafting from Slots 4-6
Drafting from Slots 7-9

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Over the years, there have been players at the top of the draft board who were so much better than the rest of the field that it made picking at the end of the round a disadvantage. For example, early career Christian McCaffrey and, many years ago, LaDainian Tomlinson provided a ridiculous advantage in drafts from the early positions. Even though players like Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and McCaffrey are often consensus top-three selections now, their advantage over the field isn't one that can't be overcome by players selected later in the first round. If you draw one of the late picks this year, don't think you're at a significant disadvantage. Actually, I prefer drafting in those later spots this year.

When reading this guide, I list the players who will often be available when each pair of picks at the "turn" arrive. Obviously, every draft is different, so pay close attention to the flow of the draft and be ready to pivot your strategy when needed. If there is a player you just have to get — be aggressive and take him as early as you need to. It's your draft. Have fun while also trying to dominate.

1st/2nd Round Turn

This decision often frames your draft. There is no wrong approach. Want one of the top-3 QBs? They all should be there. How about WR/WR? There are plenty of excellent duos to anchor your team with. Want to go old school? This is a great year to select two RBs, as some of the very best  likely will fall to you, which is unlike many prior years. It's unlikely Travis Kelce falls to you. But if he does, his leverage over the TE field is significant. Obviously, mixing and matching works well between any of the positions, with RB/WR being a strong plan. Finally, if you're in a league that competes with other leagues for a grand prize, you may want to stack teammates. Common stacks from this position are Stefon Diggs/Josh Allen and A.J. Brown/Jalen Hurts. In the improbable case that Kelce falls, stacking him with Mahomes is a great call. 

• Quarterback: This is likely your only chance to get a top-3 QB. If that's your plan, act on it!

Options likely available: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen

• Running Back: I am bullish on a bounceback from Jonathan Taylor and think a career year could be on the horizon for Nick Chubb, so I have already secured both of them in drafts. With the potential for a Saquon Barkley holdout, there is risk of the unknown, so choose wisely.

Options likely available: Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley

• Wide Receiver: Getting one or two foundational WRs makes for a great start to the draft. There are no bad choices among the receivers here. I do worry that Amon-Ra St. Brown doesn't have the ceiling potential of the other options, but his floor is strong.

Options likely available: Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams

• Tight End: Since Kelce likely will be gone at this point, I don't advise taking a TE here. There will be an opportunity to address the position later.

Options likely available: Mark Andrews

3rd/4th Round Turn

Look back at your first two picks. Do you want to diversify your strength at other positions? There should be options to address any position. How about gaining dominance at a position you've already addressed? You can have an amazing trio of WRs or RBs after these picks. If you want to spend up at QB and/or TE, this could be the last chance to do that.

• Quarterback: 2023 is the year of the high-end quarterback. The top QBs are getting selected earlier than ever. The perceived dropoff after the best options is substantial. In many leagues, if looking for one of the consensus top-6 QBs, this could be the last chance to get one. In most drafts, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen will be gone. I still think Joe Burrow is getting better. He also had bad injury luck with his WRs last year. It wouldn't surprise me if he flirted with 45 TDs. He's a strong selection here.

Options likely available: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert.

• Running Back: This is likely one of the last chances you'll have to get a RB with a secure high-volume role and proven production. After a strong second half of the season, I love Najee Harris in a high-volume role. Also, if the Jaguars figure out a way to involve Travis Etienne in the passing game, he could be a top-eight RB.

Options likely available: Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon

• Wide Receiver: This is an interesting time to consider a WR. There is a mixture of player types. Looking for a potential star who's rising? Jerry Jeudy may be your player. Or players who have changing situations that could lead to ridiculous upside? Look no further than Calvin Ridley and Amari Cooper. I am drafting plenty of Cooper and Ridley, as I expect both of their QBs to have big seasons with one clear alpha WR to throw to.

Options  likely available: DK Metcalf, Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Deebo Samuel

• Tight End:  It's likely that Mark Andrews has been drafted, but if he hasn't, Andrews and T.J. Hockenson often comprise the tier of TEs that are available at this point of the draft. The TEs that will be left after this round could have much more volatile target volume. I am more interested in the TEs who have a cheaper draft cost. I also worry that Hockenson loses targets to rookie WR Jordan Addison.

Options likely available: Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson.

5th/6th Round Turn

At this point in the draft, it's important to consider the level of players available at each of the positions in future rounds. Look ahead to see which later players you may be more comfortable with at the various positions. Use the picks in the next two sets of turns to secure players at the positions where you don't like the later options.

• Quarterback: It might be a coin flip as to whether Justin Herbert or Justin Fields are still on the board. If you really wanted a top-6 QB, you might want to make sure you addressed it earlier. But if you're willing to take a chance that a QB falls to you, have a backup plan in place. A possibility is if you are high on Trevor Lawrence. This is likely the last chance to draft him.

Options likely available: Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence

• Running Back: Especially for those who waited on running back, there is potential here. There are a number of RBs who potentially could play on all three downs. All have risk, hence the discounted draft cost. But there is a good chance that one or two of the available RBs here return top-15 RB value. After a terrific season in 2021 and a great late-season finish last year, I have many shares of James Conner, who could catch 60 passes and play more than 90 percent of the snaps when healthy. By this point in the draft, I try to have three RBs on my roster. Then I don't revisit the position until the double-digit rounds.

Options likely available: Cam Akers, Miles Sanders, Dameon Pierce, James Conner, Alexander Mattison, Rachaad White

• Wide Receiver: Talented WRs should be available here. The big question with each revolves around situation and opportunity. Personally, I'm bullish on Mike Williams. I believe new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will focus on the downfield passing game. That would raise the ceiling for Williams. In the five games last year that Williams had at least nine targets, he was nearly unstoppable.

Options likely available: Mike Williams, Christian Kirk, Diontae Johnson, Brandon Aiyuk

• Tight End: WIth these picks, you need to decide if you want a top-6 tight end on your roster. If you do, adding one should be a priority, as they may not be available by the next time you pick at the end of the seventh round. When the 49ers added Christian McCaffrey last year, George Kittle's floor was higher than it had been in the past. He'll still have volatility, but if I want a TE here, he's my choice.

Options that could be available: George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert

7th/8th Round Turn

I like having a QB, three RBs, three WRs and a TE by the end of these picks. Have an idea of how you want your positional breakdown to look ahead of time. Use these rounds to address the positions you are targeting.

• Quarterback: In many drafts, the top-7 QBs may be off the board. I believe that Deshaun Watson struggled to regain the speed of the game last year. I expect him to be back to the form he showed with the Texans. Those who believe that will happen should consider selecting Watson, as he has strong weapons and a very good offensive line. Otherwise, if not yet dealing with QB, you'll have other options in later rounds.

Options that could be available: Deshaun Watson

• Running Back: A lot of risk here. There also is potential upside. If you believe Javonte Williams will be fully healthy after last year's knee injury, he's a steal. We could see Isiah Pacheco be the lead back for the Chiefs while rarely seeing more than seven defenders in the box. Those who need a RB here can choose their level of risk with these players. Don't forget that Alvin Kamara could be suspended, as his legal situation has completed.

Options likely available: Javonte Williams, Isiah Pacheco, James Cook, Alvin Kamara

• Wide Receiver: The talent of the WRs at this point is excellent. But each has situations that cloud his fantasy value. Jordan Addison could immediately be a target monster with a high floor/ceiling combo. Jaxon Smith-Njigba might struggle to see the field when the run-heavy Seahawks use two-WR sets. Meanwhile, Pickens will need improved play from Kenny Pickett to reach his fantasy potential. I'm skeptical about Pickett, so I'm avoiding Pickens at this cost. Of this group, I'm targeting Addison.

Options likely available: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, Jordan Addison, Michael Thomas 

• Tight End: This is the sweet spot for a TE who's not an elite option but has strong target potential. Darren Waller is 30 this season and has missed significant time the last two years. After agreeing to a new contract, Evan Engram no longer has holdout potential. Although he was great last year, the addition of Calvin Ridley could change the focus of the passing attack, which could hurt Engram. Waller is the best dart in these rounds but carries the most risk.

Options  likely available: Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Pat Freiermuth

9th/10th Round Turn

By this point of the draft, the volatility of players is much greater. Many of these players have dealt with numerous injuries. Others need a variety of factors to go their way to be weekly starters for your team. Some of the safest options in this group are some of the running backs. Either use these picks to swing for the fence, or consider mixing and matching risk and stability.

• Quarterback: The QBs available in this part of the draft have incredible upside. They also have cause for concern. There's no need to go into too much detail about Tua Tagovailoa. He could be a top-5 QB, but if he suffers another head injury, we may not see him on the field for a long time. I am excited to draft Anthony Richardson. I say it every year: Tim Tebow was a QB1 when he was a starting QB. Richardson has the potential to be the best running QB in the league. In addition, the Colts have the ability to go with multiple-TE sets, and with the RPO element to the offense, Richardson could be a top-8 QB. 

Options likely available: Anthony Richardson, Tua Tagovailoa

• Running Back: This is the time to look for a depth RB, if needed. Brian Robinson likely has the highest floor, though his lack of involvement in the passing game keeps his ceiling low. Personally, I expect Jamaal Williams to be a big factor. Wherever he goes, coaches love him. He does everything well enough. That ensures he's a big part of the offense. And if Alvin Kamara misses time, Williams could have a stretch of strong RB2 production. Don't sleep on Rashaad Penny. The injuries have always been a problem. But if he gets a sizable role with the Eagles, the sky's the limit.

Options likely available: Rashaad Penny, Devon Achane, Brian Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Jamaal Williams

• Wide Receiver: This is an excellent time to address WR. Romeo Doubs and Jakobi Meyers could have very strong floor potential as possession WRs with new starting QBs. If Skyy Moore plays to his draft capital as a slot WR with Patrick Mahomes, he could be the steal of the draft. If I need a safe play, I'm looking at Jakobi Meyers, but if I want to swing for the fence, Moore's my choice.

Options likely available: Zay Flowers, Skyy Moore, Romeo Doubs, Odell Beckham, Jakobi Meyers

• Tight End: Until the Titans acquired DeAndre Hopkins, I was high on Chigoziem Okonkwo, but there may no longer be enough targets to help Okonkwo break out. I believe that Dalton Schultz is a "catch and fall guy" who benefited from playing with Dak Prescott. I think he gets exposed with the Texans. If you need a TE here I'd lean toward David Njoku. He broke out last year but dealt with injuries. If he can stay healthy, he could finish as a top-six TE.

Options that could be available: David Njoku, Dalton Schultz, Chigoziem Okonkwo

11th/12th Round turn

For the rest of the draft, you should be building depth. Check your roster to see which positions you want to address. 

• Quarterback: For those who took one of the fringe top-10 QBs, it's possible you want to address the backup earlier than usual. Between the running of Daniel Jones and the passing volume expected from Kirk Cousins, either is a strong backup or fringe starter.

Options likely available: Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones

• Running Back: This is where we are seeing backup RBs who are considered lower-ceiling options than the backups with prominent roles. Consider drafting Tyler Allgeier for depth. The Falcons ran the ball 579 times last year. Even if Bijan Robinson gets 70 percent of the carries, that leaves quite a bit for Allgeier.

Options likely available: Kendre Miller, Tyler Allgeier, Tyjae Spears

• Wide Receiver: If looking for WR depth, there are differing types of players available here. My favorite from this group is Darnell Mooney. He's already had a 1,000-yard season. And if Justin Fields ends up being a legitimate passer, Mooney could have a big year as the No. 2 to DJ Moore.

Options that could be available: Allen Lazard, Rondale Moore, Darnell Mooney, Jonathan Mingo, Rashee Rice

• Tight End: For those who punted on TE earlier, any of these options could see volume and provide a decent floor. It's unlikely that any of these players has big upside, though Greg Dulcich did show flashes of being a playmaker last year. Cole Kmet may have the best floor of this group.

Options likely available: Cole Kmet, Greg Dulcich, Tyler Higbee

13th/14th Round Turn

For those in leagues with team defenses, this is a great time to start looking if you want a top unit. Otherwise, continue to build depth.

• Quarterback: For those who want a second QB, you may not want to wait later than this. Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff should present solid floor options with potential for spike weeks. For those who believe that coach Sean Payton can turn around Russell Wilson's rough 2022 season, this is the time to draft him.

Options likely available: Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson

• Running Back: There are interesting depth options I think can be more than that. The fantasy community believes that Khalil Herbert is the most valuable Chicago RB. With two years of strong production when taking over in Tennessee and Carolina, D'Onta Foreman can easily be the RB in that backfield to roster. Also, should Miles Sanders miss time, Chuba Hubbard would immediately be a top-20 RB.

Options likely available: D'Onta Foreman, Leonard Fournette, Jeff Wilson, Chuba Hubbard

• Wide Receiver: A number of WRs available here should see significant weekly snaps. Although he played limited snaps last year, Rashid Shaheed showed ability to win in different ways. If looking for a boom-or-bust option, he could be the choice. Although I liked Zay Jones last year, he may now be the fifth option in the offense, so I'm staying away.

Options likely available: Zay Jones, Rashid Shaheed, Van Jefferson

• Tight End: Of the tight ends likely available, Juwan Johnson is a player I'm targeting. He was a converted college WR. He had a third-year breakout last year. His cost became cheaper when the Saints acquired Foster Moreau. But the team uses a lot of two-TE sets. I expect Johnson to be the primary receiving TE.

Options that could be available: Juwan Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, Mike Gesicki

• Team defense: If the top options, Dallas and San Francisco are on the board, each team should have a strong floor and ceiling combination. If they've been drafted, I recommend taking a shot on the Dolphins. They have strong pass rush weapons, they added Jalen Ramsey at cornerback and they also brought in defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who is one of the best.

15th/16th Round turn

Aside from rounding out roster depth, those in need of kickers and/or defenses will want to deal with that now. Picking at this turn is great because in leagues with kickers, you should get a top-5 option. 

• Quarterback: I'm not excited about the QB options at this point. For those who want to bet that Kyler Murray regains his running ability by mid-season after suffering a December knee injury, he would be a steal here.

Options likely available: Derek Carr, Kyler Murray

• Running Back: There are definitely some lottery tickets for RB depth available at this point. I am targeting Gus Edwards here. Last year, he was returning from an ACL injury. He should be back to full health this year. And if J.K. Dobbins misses time, Edwards could have a substantial role in a strong offense.

Options likely available: Gus Edwards, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chase Edmonds, Eric Gray, James Robinson

• Wide Receiver: Finding a depth player who could turn into more is the goal here. My favorite of this group is DJ Chark. Health is always a concern. But when he's on the field, he produces. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is at his best throwing to the perimeter, which is where Chark operates best.

Options likely available: Jayden Reed, K.J. Osborn.DJ Chark, Alec Pierce, John Metchie

• Tight End: Many of us love taking a late shot on a TE in the hopes of getting a reliable starter. Although it rarely pans out, it's worth the low investment. We don't yet know if the oft-injured Irv Smith is actually good. But we do know that he couldn't be in a better situation with Joe Burrow facing defenses that often have to leave the middle of the field open while dealing with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Smith could be a big surprise.

Options likely available: Irv Smith, Jake Ferguson, Isaiah Likely, Tyler Conklin

• Kicker: If the first few kickers are gone, Jake Elliott is an excellent option. He's often not taken early, yet the Eagles project to have one of the best offenses in the league. 
• Team Defense: If you waited on defense and a number of options are gone, consider rolling the dice on the Browns. They added three strong pass rushers to play alongside Myles Garrett, and they have a solid trio of cornerbacks. They could be a dominant unit.