Exploiting the Matchups: Week 16 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

If you're still reading this, it probably means your fantasy season is going well or at least that you've still got a shot at a title in one of your leagues. For me it's been a weird year. I finished at least .500 in all my leagues, but with a bunch of near-misses for playoff spots and one Week 15 first-round exit. While I've got semifinals matchups coming up in three of my four dynasty leagues, my only redraft team still going (out of four*) is in a free league against some friends and acquaintances who mostly provide less-than-formidable competition.

I'm going to focus on higher-level players for this article Weeks 16 and 17, figuring tough lineup decisions are more likely to involve big names now that bye weeks are out of the way and most of the average or subpar fantasy teams have been eliminated. A lot of teams don't have the luxury of benching guys like Brock Purdy or Kenneth Walker for tough matchups, but that's much less true among teams that have survived to Week 16 than it is for the overall pool of fantasy squads.

*Not counting best ball, which is going quite well and accounts for more than three-fourths of the money I have tied up in fantasy, woot woot.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Justin Fields (vs. ARZ) — 69% started

Start Over — Tua Tagovailoa (vs. DAL), Jared Goff (at MIN)

As of Wednesday evening, the Bears had an implied total of 23.5 points, favored by four over Arizona in a game with an over/under of 43. I can't remember the last time Chicago was projected to score that many points, but it's a reasonable estimate against a team that's allowing 26.9 per game (31st) and 6.7 net yards per pass attempt (30th). All the better that Fields' track record this season is full of big games against bad defenses and poor efforts against better ones. Plus, he's due for some positive TD regression on the ground, having scored just twice from 488 rushing yards. Trust him in fantasy this week even if it's not clear he should get another season as Chicago's starter after this one.

• Other Good Matchups: Baker Mayfield (vs. JAX), Nick Mullens (vs. DET), Zach Wilson / Trevor Siemian (vs. WAS)

Running Backs 👍

• Breece Hall (vs. WAS) — 79% started

Start Over — D'Andre Swift (vs. NYG), Austin Ekeler (vs. BUF), Derrick Henry (vs. SEA)

Hall's complete reliance on receiving production has been shocking, but it mostly worked out alright prior to the crash-and-burn Week 15 in Miami. He had nine straight games with at least 10 PPR points before that, including four with 20-plus. Expect a bounce-back this Sunday against a pitiful Washington defense, regardless of whether Zach Wilson (concussion) or Trevor Siemian is the starting quarterback. 

The Commanders are bad enough that Hall might even have his first strong rushing game since Week 5. If nothing else, he'll see plenty of targets against a defense that's given up at least 129 total yards to opposing RBs in six straight games. Only the Cardinals have allowed more fantasy points per game to running backs (and barely) since Washington shipped out both starting defensive ends at the trade deadline.

• Kenneth Walker (at TEN) — 69% started

Start Over — De'Von Achane (vs. DAL), David Montgomery (at MIN), James Conner (at CHI)

The Titans have a reputation for formidable run defense, but it no longer holds true with DL Jeffery Simmons nursing a knee injury and nose tackle Teair Tart finally released amidst a subpar, drama-filled season. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane combined for 143 rushing yards in a loss to Tennessee two weeks ago, with Devin Singletary then putting up 121 in a Week 15 win for Houston. Now it's Walker's turn, fresh off a 19-86-1 rushing line (plus 3-26-0 receiving) Monday night against an Eagles defense that's mostly shut down running backs this year. Zach Charbonnet may still play a bunch on passing downs, but Walker out-touched him 22-4 on Monday.

• Other Good Matchups: Bijan Robinson (vs. IND), James Cook (at LAC), Breece Hall (vs. WAS), Chuba Hubbard (vs. GB), Jaylen Warren (vs. CIN), Ezekiel Elliott (at DEN)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Rashee Rice (vs. LV) — 72% started

Start Over — Calvin Ridley (at TB), Puka Nacua (vs. NO), Garrett Wilson (vs. WAS)

While the overall product has been better of late, the Raiders defense still doesn't have a single high-quality starter in its secondary. Edge rushers Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Koonce have been the strong suit, and their presence shouldn't really impact a wide receiver like Rice who is predominantly seeing short, quick passes. 

The lack of air yards (4.5 aDOT) hasn't been a problem so far, with Rice coming off four straight games with at least seven catches, nine targets and 64 yards. He's playing nearly all of Kansas City's snaps these days, and the easy, schemed receptions provide a nice PPR floor even for the weeks when he's less effective. This probably won't be one of those weeks, and there's no reason for the Chiefs to stop throwing to Rice given how well he's done with his targets (81.0 percent catch rate, 9.0 YPT, 2.5 YPRR, 126.9 passer rating, 7:1 TD:INT). 

• Tyler Lockett (at TEN) — 56% started

Start Over — Terry McLaurin (at NYJ), Diontae Johnson (vs. CIN), Zay Flowers (at SF)

The results haven't been there, but Lockett is still an above-average player and has seen at least five targets in every game since Week 1. The near-misses have been numerous, including Drew Lock overthrowing him Monday night on what should've been a distance score against the Eagles. It's back to Geno Smith this Sunday at Tennessee, and we should see multiple Seahawks enjoy good days against a defense that's long been weak on the back end and now has issues up front as well. This is one matchup where primarily working the perimeter could work in Lockett's favor, as the Titans use their best cover man (Roger McCreary) in the slot in nickel formations.

• Other Good Matchups: DJ Moore (vs. ARZ), Garrett Wilson (vs. WAS), DK Metcalf (at TEN) A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith (vs. NYG), Mike Evans & Chris Godwin (at JAX), Rashid Shaheed (at LAR), Gabe Davis (at LAC)

Tight Ends 👍

• Jake Ferguson (at MIA) — 62% started

Start Over — Dalton Schultz (vs. CLE), Dallas Goedert (vs. NYG)

The Dolphins have done a good job defending the pass and sit middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, so this is really more about the potential game environment and near-certainty of friendly weather. An over/under of 50 is easily the largest of Week 16, with this Cowboys-Dolphins matchup featuring a pair of prolific offenses that are excellent at creating big plays. As the No. 2 option in the Dallas passing game, Ferguson should get in on the fun this Sunday. Meanwhile, a lot of other tight ends are either stuck with backup QBs or playing in games that could be impacted by bad weather.

• Other Good Matchups: Pat Freiermuth (vs. CIN), Cade Otton (vs. JAX)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Brock Purdy (vs. BAL) — 65% started

Start Instead — Justin Fields (vs. ARZ), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. DAL)

You're probably not benching an MVP favorite who has topped 22 fantasy points in five of six games since a Week 9 bye. But for those who have two strong quarterbacks -- and thus the luxury of considering putting Purdy on the bench -- this would probably be the week to do it. Every defense he's faced since the bye is in the bottom 11 for fantasy points allowed to QBs, while this week's opponent ranks third despite nursing leads for most of the season. The Ravens have allowed just 4.5 net yards per pass attempt (1st) and 14 TD passes (t-1st) in 14 games, and they also lead the league in scoring defense (16.1). They probably can't shut Purdy down, but they should be able to slow him down.

• Other Tough Matchups: Lamar Jackson (at SF),  Jordan Love (at CAR), Sam Howell (at NYJ)

Running Backs 👎

• De'Von Achane (vs. DAL) — 57% started

Start Instead — Aaron Jones (at CAR), James Conner (at CHI), Chuba Hubbard (vs. GB)

It might feel weird leaving Achane on the bench after seeing what James Cook did to the Cowboys last week. And while I don't doubt there's a big ceiling here, the floor should also be considered and isn't pretty. That's partially because the Cowboys have mostly played good defense, and partially because they're a strong team overall. The latter point is especially relevant for Achane because he's been getting so many of his carries after halftime in games where Miami has a comfortable lead. Raheem Mostert has gotten far more playing time and touches in competitive scenarios of late, including 71 percent snap share before halftime of Sunday's 30-0 win over New York. If this is a close game, as most expect, we could see Mostert out-touch the rookie by a factor of 3:1 or even 4:1.

• Ty Chandler — 24% started

Start Instead — Devin Singletary (vs. CLE), Ezekiel Elliott (at DEN) 

This might be taken as a warning to temper expectations more than a straight up stay-away recommendation, considering Chandler dominated Minnesota's backfield work last week and likely will do the same come Sunday with Alexander Mattison still not practicing. Just don't expect a repeat of the efficiency we saw in his 158-yard game against the Bengals on Saturday. The Lions have yielded the fewest fantasy points to running backs and rank sixth in YPC allowed (3.8), with only seven backs all season scoring double-digit PPR points against them. I think Chandler will make it eight, but he might not get there until the fourth quarter.

• Other Tough Matchups: Saquon Barkley (at PHI), Austin Ekeler (vs. BUF), David Montgomery (at MIN), D'Onta Foreman & Roschon Johnson (vs. ARZ)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Amari Cooper (at HOU) — 72% started

Start Instead — Garrett Wilson (vs. WAS), Rashee Rice (vs. LV), Tee Higgins (at PIT)

Ja'Marr Chase, Calvin Ridley and Garrett Wilson are the only WRs to reach 20 PPR points against Houston this year, with Derek Stingley and Steven Nelson emerging as one of the league's top corner duos and limiting production to the position even though their team has been involved in some shootouts. This week's game doesn't figure to be one of those shootouts, likely pitting Joe Flacco against Case Keenum in a contest with an over/under of 40. Don't expect another 300-yard game from Flacco, nor another 100-yard outing from Cooper.

• Terry McLaurin (at NYJ) — 42% started

Start Instead — Chris Godwin (vs. JAX), Jordan Addison (vs. DET), Drake London (vs. IND)

Coming off his first 100-yard game of the season, McLaurin now has a decent chance to produce one of the most useless 1,000-yard seasons in fantasy history. He's not really to blame, but there's also not a ton of cause for optimism when he's playing on the road against a defense that's given up the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers whilst starting arguably the best cornerback trio in the league. 

• Other Tough Matchups: Davante Adams (at KC), Deebo Samuel (vs. BAL), Romeo Doubs & Jayden Reed (at CAR), Nico Collins and Noah Brown (vs. CLE), Jahan Dotson (at NYJ)

Tight Ends 👎

• Isaiah Likely (at SF) — 42% started

Start Instead — Trey McBride (at CHI), Cole Kmet (vs. ARI), Dalton Schultz (vs. CLE), 

Likely was excellent the past two weeks and now faces a San Francisco defense that just allowed Cardinals TEs Trey McBride and Elijah Higgins to combine for 146 yards and a touchdown. The problem is that the 49ers still have LBs Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw patrolling the middle of the field, and prior to Week 15 they'd done an excellent job limiting TE production. The relative weakness of San Francisco's defense right now is right up the middle, with DTs Javon Hargrave (hamstring) and Arik Armstead (foot) both having missed the win over Arizona. If those guys are out again, the Ravens would be wise to emphasize their running game Monday night, which also has the added bonus of potentially eating more clock and creating fewer possessions overall against one of the few teams favored to beat Baltimore this year.

• Other Tough Matchups: George Kittle (vs. BAL), Dalton Schultz (vs. CLE), 

Week 6 Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)

QB Baker Mayfield (vs. JAX)

RB Tyjae Spears (vs. SEA)

WR Noah Brown (vs. CLE)

WR Rashid Shaheed (at LAR)

TE Pat Freiermuth (vs. CIN)

K Jake Moody (vs. BAL)

D/ST Bengals (at PIT)

For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)

QB Joe Flacco (at HOU)

RB Zamir White (at KC) - if Josh Jacobs is out again

RB Roschon Johnson (vs. ARZ)

RB Justice Hill (at SF)

RB Chase Brown (at PIT)

WR Jameson Williams (at MIN)

WR Demario Douglas (at DEN)

WR Joshua Palmer (vs. BUF)

TE Tucker Kraft (at CAR)

K Michael Badgley (at MIN)

D/ST Commanders (at NYJ)

For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)

QB Nick Mullens (vs. DET)

RB Rico Dowdle (at MIA)

RB D'Ernest Johnson (at TB)

WR Jonathan Mingo (vs. GB)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson (at PHI)

WR Darnell Mooney (vs. ARZ)

WR Treylon Burks (vs. SEA)

TE Tanner Hudson (at PIT)

K Lucas Havrisik (vs. NO)

D/ST Cardinals (at CHI)