Exploiting the Matchups: Week 10 Start/Sit and Streamers

Written by

Updated on November 11, 2022 2:42PM EST

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Trevor Lawrence (at KC) — 31% started

Start Over — Aaron Rodgers (vs. DAL), Kirk Cousins (at BUF), Jared Goff (at CHI)

The Chiefs have given up 17 passing touchdowns against three interceptions, and only two teams have faced more pass attempts per game (38.4). This may not be a good spot for Trevor Lawrence to get a win, but don't be surprised if he puts up something like 300 yards on 40-45 attempts with multiple touchdowns. And while a turnover or two likely will be part of the equation, those won't hurt us much in the typical fantasy league, subtracting only a point or two. The suspension of Chiefs DE Frank Clark works in Lawrence's favor, while the Jags will have all their offensive starters and key backups healthy as long as TE Evan Engram (back) can play.

Other Good Matchups: Justin Fields (vs. DET), Jared Goff (at CHI), Jacoby Brissett (at MIA), Sam Ehlinger (at LV)

Running Backs 👍

David Montgomery (vs. DET) — 69% started

Start Over — Raheem Mostert (vs. CLE), D'Andre Swift (at CHI), Najee Harris (vs. NO)

Justin Fields rightfully is getting most of the attention and should be ranked no lower than sixth among fantasy QBs this week, but the home game against Detroit appears nearly as favorable for Chicago's two-man backfield. Even with Khalil Herbert staying involved regularly now, Montgomery has taken a dozen or more carries in all his healthy games this year, including either 14 or 15 totes in each of the past four. Plus, Montgomery dominates the pass snaps and limited RB receiving opportunities for Chicago, drawing 10 targets to Herbert's two in five games since his Week 4 absence due to an injury.

Jeff Wilson (vs. CLE) — 35% started

Start Over — Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. JAX), Kareem Hunt (at MIA)

There's definitely risk here, given that Wilson isn't an explosive runner and likely will stay in some kind of timeshare with Raheem Mostert after playing 49 percent of Miami's offensive snaps last week. The flip side is an attractive ceiling, as there's always a chance his role grows in his second outing, and the Dolphins could turn to their run game more than usual against a defense ranked 30th in DVOA against the run and 28th in fantasy points allowed to RBs. It doesn't hurt that Wilson did well with his touches last week and saw his playing time grow throughout the game — something I touched on earlier this week in Backfield Breakdown (excerpt shown below).

Wilson took 0% of snaps in the first quarter, 47% in the second, 65% in the third and 57% in the fourth.
After Q1, Wilson had a 57/41 snap share advantage over Mostert, plus a 9-6 lead in carries and 3-2 lead in targets.
Wilson finished with nine rushes for 51 yards and three catches for 21 yards and a TD, while Mostert was held to 9-26-0 and no catches, doing little after the early TD.

Other Good Matchups: Jamaal Williams & D'Andre Swift (at CHI), Cordarrelle Patterson & Tyler Allgeier (at CAR), D'Onta Foreman & Chuba Hubbard (vs. ATL), Khalil Herbert (vs. DET),

Wide Receivers 👍

DeVonta Smith (vs. WAS) — 59% started

Start Over — Gabriel Davis (vs. MIN), Michael Pittman (at LV), Joshua Palmer (at SF)

As inconsistent as he's been in terms of fantasy production, Smith nonetheless is averaging five catches per game while accounting for 23.1 percent of Philadelphia's targets, and he should have a big afternoon against the same Washington defense he roasted for 87-169-1 back in Week 3. The Commanders rank 25th in both pass-defense DVOA and fantasy points allowed to WRs, feeling the consequences of an undermanned CB group that now has Benjamin St-Juste as a regular starter and Danny Johnson in the slot. Even mainstay Kendall Fuller has struggled, giving up the fourth most yards among CBs (451) while St-Juste has allowed the 12th most (390), per PFF.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (vs. CLE) — 12% started

Start Over — Michael Gallup (at GB), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. JAX), George Pickens (vs. NO)

You're probably not starting him in a 10-team league, and maybe not even a 12-teamer, but Peoples-Jones warrants a close look in deeper formats and DFS. He had five consecutive games with four or more catches for 50 or more yards before the Week 9 bye, mostly going unnoticed because he still hasn't scored a TD. Amari Cooper, of course, has scored five, despite holding more modest advantages over DPJ when it comes to targets (66-46) and yards (553-417). Peoples-Jones finds himself in a good spot this week, with Cooper potentially shadowed by Xavien Howard in a matchup against a Dolphins defense that's allowed the 10th most fantasy points to WRs while ranking 31st in DVOA against the pass. Howard is having a down year, but he's still by far their best corner with Byron Jones (Achilles) stuck on the PUP list and yet to resume practicing.

Other Good Matchups: Darnell Mooney & Chase Claypool (vs. DET), Isaiah McKenzie (vs. MIN), Zay Jones (at KC)

Tight Ends 👍

Evan Engram (at KC) — 28% started

Start Over — Cole Kmet (vs. DET), Taysom Hill (at PIT), Tyler Higbee (vs. ARZ)

A popular Week 9 DFS play and streamer who ultimately flopped, Engram has a nice chance to rebound in a hurry if he can overcome the back injury that limited his playing time in the win over Vegas on Sunday. A limited practice Wednesday puts him on track to do that, and he should return to his usual 5-7 targets against a defense that's given up the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Other Good Matchups: Cole Kmet (vs. DET), David Njoku (ankle) or Harrison Bryant (at MIA)

Sit/Downgrade

Quarterbacks 👎

Dak Prescott (at GB) — % started

Start Instead — Justin Fields (vs. DET), Tom Brady (vs. SEA), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. CLE)

I listed Dak here in his last game before the Week 9 bye, and then he made me look silly with first-rate efficiency making up for a lack of volume (my main concern ahead of the game against Chicago). This time, it's a mix of everything against a Packers defense that's allowed the fourth fewest points to QBs — in part because they've been solid against the pass (ninth in DVOA), but also as a result of their poor run defense (30th in DVOA) and slow pace of play on offense (29th). They've yet to allow 20 fantasy points to a QB, with only Josh Allen (19.6) and Kirk Cousins (19.1) even coming close.

Other Tough Matchups: Justin Herbert (at SF), Kyler Murray (at LAR), Kirk Cousins (at BUF), Aaron Rodgers (vs. DAL), Taylor Heinicke (at PHI)

I'm starting Justin Fields over Kyler Murray this week in the only redraft league I care about. Murray has tougher matchup + tons of O-line injuries + his own hamstring injury.
— Scary Jerry (blue-check buyer / Parody account) (@JerryDonabedian) November 10, 2022

Running Backs 👎

James Conner (at LAR) — 59% started

Start Instead — Devin Singletary (vs. MIN), David Montgomery (vs. DET)

The good news is that Conner played 71 percent of snaps last week in his return from a three-game absence due to a rib injury. The bad news is that he still hasn't put up a big stat line this year, maxing out at 16.5 PPR points Week 1, and now faces the prospect of running behind an offensive line that had all three interior starters absent from practice Wednesday due to injuries.

G Max Garcia (shoulder) and C Rodney Hudson (knee) both missed Arizona's last game, while G Will Hernandez (chest) recently was placed on IR. That's on top of losing G Justin Pugh to an ACL tear in October, and now there's another possible complication with backup C/G Cody Ford and starting OT Kelvin Beachum missing practice due to illnesses. Even if those last two are fine, Aaron Donald should have a field day. The Rams rank third in run-defense DVOA while the Cardinals sit 26th in rushing DVOA... and it's an even bigger mismatch than the numbers suggest given all the injuries. Conner will really need those cheap PPR points this week.

Nyheim Hines (vs. MIN) — 28% started

Start Instead — Tyler Allgeier (at CAR), Khalil Herbert (vs. DET), Kareem Hunt (at MIA)

Minnesota has allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to running backs, but that's not really my concern here so much as the uncertainty about Hines' role. He'll presumably play more than the four snaps he got last week in his Buffalo debut, but this has never been an offense that feeds a lot of passes (or carries) to the running backs, and it's not like Hines will be replacing Singletary as the lead runner. While Josh Allen's elbow injury and the potential for bad weather could work in favor of Buffalo's RBs seeing more volume this week, Singletary is much more likely to benefit and James Cook could have a role as well.

Other Tough Matchups: Aaron Jones (vs. DAL), Melvin Gordon & Latavius Murray (at TEN), Brian Robinson (at PHI), Eno Benjamin (at LAR)

Wide Receivers 👎

Joshua Palmer (at SF) — 75% started

Start Instead — Brandon Aiyuk (vs. LAC), Darnell Mooney (vs. DET)

Palmer is still startable given the volume projection with Mike Williams (knee) and possibly Keenan Allen (hamstring) out for another week, but don't expect the same results he got this past Sunday against a Falcons defense missing both of its top two cornerbacks. While CB play has been a relative weakness for the 49ers defense, apart from Charvarius Ward, it's still one of the tougher defenses to pass against. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw might be the best duo of off-ball linebackers in the league; S Talanoa Hufanga is enjoying a breakout season; and Nick Bosa still leads a formidable defensive line. In other words, downgrade all the Chargers, including Palmer.

Curtis Samuel (at PHI) — 34% started

Start Instead — Diontae Johnson (vs. NO), Courtland Sutton (at TEN)

While his rushing work and receiving efficiency have ticked up with Taylor Heinicke under center, Samuel has averaged only 5.3 targets in Heinicke's starts while Terry McLaurin has seen 8.3. Both have tough matchups this week against the best group of cornerbacks in the NFL, with McLaurin likely facing another shadow date with Darius Slay while Samuel sees a lot of Avonte Maddox in the slot. Maddox helped limit Samuel to 7-48-0 on 10 targets in a 24-8 Eagles victory when these NFC East rivals met Week 3.

Friday Update: Maddox missed practice Thursday and Friday after this article was posted, so he's not looking good for Monday night. This remains a tough spot for the Washington offense as a whole, but Samuel might have the relative matchup advantage if Maddox is out.

Other Tough Matchups: Terry McLaurin (at PHI), Michael Gallup (at GB), Robert Woods & Treylon Burks (vs. DEN), Drake London (at CAR)

Tight Ends 👎

Tyler Higbee (vs. ARZ) — 46% started

Start Instead — Dalton Schultz (at GB), Pat Freiermuth (vs. NO)

This isn't a bad matchup but rather a warning; Higbee can't be trusted, even against a subpar defense that's given up the second most fantasy points to tight ends. The 29-year-old has only nine targets over his past three games after back-to-back outings with double digits in Weeks 4-5, ceding more snaps to backup Brycen Hopkins (plug for Target Breakdown) in addition to doing a lot of pass-blocking when on the field. That's a reasonable strategy by the Rams given that Higbee has produced 5.5 YPT while dropping five passes and scoring nary a touchdown this season. He's unlikely to find the end zone this week, especially if Matthew Stafford (concussion) can't play.

Other Tough Matchups: Gerald Everett (at SF)