Beating the Book: Full ATS Picks + Score Predictions for Every NFL Week 3 Game

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of Beating the Book. 

After favorites ruled the day in Week 1, we saw a complete reversal in Week 2. Underdogs finished 11-4-1 ATS, and the Falcons rallying back to take down the Eagles on Monday night marked the eighth straight-up win for a dog in Week 2. Suffice to say the books made some money.

It was also a monster week for road teams, with visitors going 11-4-1 ATS and 10-6 straight up. As usual, Week 2 was a reminder that we still know very little about the vast majority of the NFL right now.

While we started off on the right foot taking Buffalo with the points on Thursday Night Football, we walked right into a few traps on Sunday. I owe an apology to Malik Willis, who executed the Packers' conservative gameplan to perfection against a Colts team that apparently had no idea Jordan Love was out. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers somehow won a game outright – in Detroit, no less – in which they were out-gained 463 to 216 yards and ran 36 fewer plays than the Lions. Detroit going 1-of-7 in the red zone may have been a contributing factor.

Elsewhere, the Titans blew what felt like a relatively safe cover for the second straight week, while the Ravens blew multiple chances to put the Raiders away before ultimately blowing the game itself to fall to 0-2.

As for taking the Texans -6.0 as our best bet of the week? Well, I stand by that one. If Cam Akers doesn't fumble on a first-and-goal from the 4-yard-line with 6 minutes left, the hay is in the barn. Frankly, that play – and the ensuing you know exactly what's about to happen Bears field goal drive – felt like an accurate encapsulation of how Week 2 went for many bettors. 

Anyway, with so much carnage across the betting landscape, we'll take another 6-9-1 ATS week in stride and turn the page to Week 3. As was the case in Week 2, we have a handful of notable favorites, with the Jets, Browns, Bucs, 49ers and Bengals all favored by at least 6.0 points as of publication. Save for the Lions-Cardinals (51.5) and Eagles-Saints (49.5) matchups, totals are relatively low across the board. Five games currently hold a total of 40.0 or lower.

While we still have a few days for lines to shift, it's looking incredibly likely that we won't have a single double-digit favorite on the board for a third straight week – something that's never happened to begin a season in NFL history.

You can find my thoughts on the entire Week 3 slate below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 2:

Steelers -2.5 at Broncos: With that number settling under 3.0, the Steelers were one of my favorites picks of the week and probably should've been our best bet. Denver's offense remains a mess.

Saints +6.5 at Cowboys: We were reasonably skeptical of the Saints' big win over Carolina in Week 1, but Week 2 was an official statement that this is a much more dangerous offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Worst calls of Week 2:

Colts -2.5 at Packers: Tip of the cap to Malik Willis, Matt LaFleur and the Packers' running game for taking advantage of a wildly unprepared Colts team.

Rams +1.5 at Cardinals: Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals throughout his tenure in LA, but we knew this one was cooked like five minutes in. The Rams are already teetering on the edge of a disaster season.

Last week: 6-9-1 ATS; 7-9 SU; best bet PUSHED (Houston -6.0)

On the season: 12-18-2 ATS; 19-13 SU; 0-0-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Spread: Jets -6.5

Total: 38.5

The Jets are the better team and should be well-prepared for a limited Patriots' offense, but the New York defense hasn't looked quite as bulletproof as it was last season. The absence of Haason Reddick hurts, as does the loss of Jermaine Johnson, who suffered a torn Achilles in last week's win over Tennessee. C.J. Mosley (toe) is also questionable, as of publication. I fully expect the Jets to limit any chunk plays through the air, but despite an obvious scheme, the Pats have been able to run the ball effectively on Cincinnati and Seattle.

While I still have questions about the Jets' very limited pass-catching tree, we saw more Mike Williams in Week 2, and Braelon Allen emerged as a legitimate secondary option behind Breece Hall. We'll trust Aaron Rodgers to win and cover in primetime, but I see this as another spot in which the Pats can hang around and shorten the game. Since taking over in New York, Robert Saleh is just 4-14 SU and 7-11 ATS against divisional foes.

The pick: Jets 20 – Patriots 14

Sunday Early Slate

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -6.5

Total: 38.5

Looking at the upcoming schedule, the Giants may have missed their best chance to put a win on the board last week against the Commanders. While the Giants held Washington without a touchdown, and scored three of their own, the lack of a kicker – quite literally – ultimately doomed Daniel Jones and Co.

How you go into a game knowing your kicker is injured and not having a contingency plan in place is beyond me. Can your punter not give you even a 40% shot to make a short field goal? Dare Ogunbowale was banging kicks for the Texans last season, for crying out loud.

Anyway, the Giants emerge from that game reeling, and while Jones looked much better than Week 1's disaster against Minnesota, he remains on the hot seat. I want to be careful not to overrate the Browns for beating a horrific Jaguars team, but Cleveland did a much better job protecting Deshaun Watson and getting the ground game going without their two starting tackles. Cleveland did convert only two third downs, however, and racked up 100 yards worth of penalties. Through two weeks, Cleveland is just 4-of-29 on third downs.

This should be another ugly game for both sides – I love the U38.5 here – but I'll put my faith in Kevin Stefanski, Myles Garrett and the Browns' defense to get after Jones and win SU at home.

The Giants can cover the 6.5, though. Keep in mind, Deshaun Watson has struggled as a favorite, going 14-20-2 ATS in his career. Over the last five seasons, he's just 5-10 ATS as a favorite of more than 3.0 points, per The Action Network.

The pick: Browns 19 – Giants 16

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -1.0

Total: 43.5

I'll start by saying that this game is firmly in the stay-away zone. Through two weeks, it feels like we still don't know much about either team. But what we do know is that the Bears' offense has not hit the ground running with Caleb Williams like many expected. Early on in Week 2, I thought the Bears did a good job of getting Williams some easy throws, but as the game went on, the Texans continued to bring pressure and overwhelm both the rookie QB and a shaky offensive line.

Meanwhile, the Colts are coming off of perhaps the most embarrassing performance of Week 2. Had it not been for Josh Jacobs going full Etienne with a goal line fumble, the Packers would have essentially put that game away in the third quarter. How Indy came out so unprepared for a limited, ground-based Packers attack is beyond me.

Offensively, Indy looked like a mess for most of the afternoon. Anthony Richardson was reckless and inaccurate, though the Colts did have a few drops that could've changed the game. 

Jonathan Taylor was by far their most effective weapon, but he had only 14 touches and essentially split snaps with Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson for much of the second half. Very bizarre. 

These aren't necessarily new concerns for the Colts. Sure, they played the Texans closely in Week 1, but that was thanks in large part to not one, not two, but three completions of 50-plus yards for Richardson. Through two games, Richardson is now just 26-of-53 passing with four picks, though one of those came on a hail mary to conclude the loss to Green Bay.

Picking this game feels like choosing between two quarterbacks and two offenses we don't really trust right now.

It's tough to imagine the Colts coming out unprepared two weeks in a row, but if there's a defense I trust more, it's Chicago's. In a toss-up like this, we'll take the home team and the team that will be desperate to avoid an 0-3 start.

The pick: Colts 20 – Bears 17

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Texans -2.5

Total: 45.5

Much like the Saints' decimation of the Panthers in Week 1, we weren't sure how much to take from the Vikings' opening win over the Giants. It turns out both Minnesota and New Orleans might be for real. At the very least, the Vikings are one of the best-coached teams in the NFL and have to be taken seriously until Sam Darnold proves otherwise.

While Minnesota did benefit from a slew of uncharacteristic mistakes by San Francisco – a pick, a fumble, giving up a 97-yard touchdown, going out on downs twice – the Vikings didn't play a perfect game either. Darnold threw his first interception of the year, and Aaron Jones – like Josh Jacobs – paid homage to Travis Etienne with a fumble at the goal line that would've put Minnesota up 27-7 entering the fourth quarter. San Francisco scored touchdowns off of both turnovers, keeping the game closer than it probably should have been.

On the other side, Houston comes in 2-0 but didn't look overly impressive in Sunday night's win over Chicago. After scoring on their first three drives of the night, Houston put up just six more points on its ensuing nine drives to end the game. Third downs were an issue all night (4-of-14), while the Texans racked up 115 yards in penalties.

With Joe Mixon's status up in the air, this could be a dangerous spot for Houston going up against one of the best-prepared defenses in the NFL.

We'll also have to wait and see on Justin Jefferson, who picked up what appears to be a minor quad injury in Week 2. Pending the key injury news, we'll roll with Houston to win this game by a field goal, but this is a stay-away for me.

The pick: Texans 24 – Vikings 21

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -2.5

Total: 49.5

Over the last three days, we've seen a massive shift in the market for this game. Heading into Monday night, the Eagles were 3.0-point favorites. But after Philly's collapse, coupled with another beatdown by the Saints, the line has shifted a full 5.5 points in New Orleans' direction.

There was plenty of reason to be skeptical of the Saints' Week 1 decimation of the Panthers, but last Sunday's beatdown of the Cowboys is the statement win of the season so far.

The Saints are playing with a renewed sense of confidence and an offense that seems to know it can create advantages all over the field. It's one thing to blow out the Panthers, but putting six straight touchdowns on the Cowboys is a different story entirely.

In many ways, the Eagles were lucky to escape with a win over Green Bay in Sao Paolo, overcoming three turnovers and a middle-school-caliber playing surface. Questionable decision-making sunk the Eagles on Monday night against the Falcons – a game they were one play from putting away late. We can question Kellen Moore's play call all we want, but what do we make of a Philly defense that allowed Kirk Cousins to rip off one of the fastest 70-yard drives in recent memory?

My concerns for the Eagles are split between that mistake-prone defense and an offense that almost certainly will not have A.J. Brown again in Week 3. The lack of a big-play threat was obvious on Monday night, as the Eagles did not have a passing play of more than 19 yards. All due respect to Britain Covey, but he's not striking fear into any defensive coordinators. 

Regression is coming at some point for the Saints, but I think they're catching the Eagles at the right time. No Brown. Short week. Questionable coaching decisions. Playing on the road after blowing a game at home.

I'm sold. Saints win and cover.

The pick: Saints 31 – Eagles 27

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -2.0

Total: 35.5

Nail down the dogs, folks. We have ourselves the lowest total of the season so far – and rightfully so. Through two weeks, both teams rank in the bottom five in the NFL in pass attempts, passing yards, passing first downs, and intended air yards.

With that said, we have to respect the approach. Both teams are 2-0 thanks to ball control and solid defensive play. The Chargers have been the more effective rushing team by a good margin, and they may need to lean on that even more heavily if Justin Herbert is not 100 percent after suffering a leg injury in last week's win over Carolina.

Pittsburgh has been able to get by with a sub-par ground game – one that's churned out just 3.6 yards per carry thus far (28th in NFL), compared to 5.6 for the Chargers (4th in NFL). Avoiding mistakes has been the key for Justin Fields – the Steelers are one of only three teams without a turnover – but the Steelers were willing to open things up just a bit against Denver. Unlike Week 1, Fields was allowed to throw over the middle, and he's still mixing in a few deep shots per game to George Pickens.

This is a game in which both teams know what the other wants to do and neither team is likely to veer too far from its plan. If Herbert is healthy, the Chargers – at least in theory – have the quarterback to win in the passing game, but the Steelers' defense will be easily the toughest test Herbert and Jim Harbaugh have faced thus far.

This has all the makings of a close, conservative, low-scoring game that will likely come down to the final possessions in the fourth quarter.

The pick: Chargers 17 – Steelers 16 (if Justin Herbert plays)

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -6.5

Total: 40.0

We'll keep this one quick. We're going to aggressively continue to fade Bo Nix until he proves capable of throwing the ball more than five yards down the field.

Nix's raw numbers looked much better in Week 2, but well over half of the Broncos' 246 receiving yards came after the catch, with Javonte Williams (47) accounting for much of that. Nix also picked up a 49-yard gain on a trick play to set the Broncos up deep in Pittsburgh territory.

And how did that drive end?

Like most young quarterbacks, Nix will improve as the season goes along and he settles in. But even with some key injuries for the Bucs' defense, I don't like this spot for him or the Broncos on the road. In many ways, Tampa Bay was lucky to win last week despite being vastly out-gained and running 36 fewer plays than Detroit, but this is an aggressive defense that should be able to get after Nix. It certainly doesn't help that Denver has no running game to speak of.

Again, the injuries for Tampa Bay could be a factor here – especially if Vita Vea is unavailable – but the Bucs survived in Detroit last week and should be able to cover a touchdown against Nix. It's worth noting that Denver lost a starting tackle last week, as well.

The pick: Buccaneers 27 – Broncos 17

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans -3.0

Total: 36.5

Note: Everything you're about to read assumes Jordan Love will sit out again this week. Love did return to practice Wednesday for the first time since injuring his left leg in Week 1.

So we've already scolded the Colts for their lack of preparation last week, but you have to think the Titans will have seen the tape and know what to expect from Malik Willis and Co. That means we may need to see even more creativity from Matt LaFleur, who conducted a masterclass on winning with a limited quarterback in Week 2. 

Credit to Willis, by the way, for making a couple of big-time throws. His first NFL touchdown to Dontayvion Wicks was a dot. If that ball is delivered even slightly inside, it might be a pick. But it wasn't.

Later, Willis hit Romeo Doubs on a jump ball to set up a field goal and push Green Bay's lead to 13 with under 11 minutes to play. 

Again, the Packers should expect Tennessee to be ready to stop the run – something the Titans have done effectively thus far. They held D'Andre Swift and Caleb Williams to 45 yards on 15 carries in Week 1 and did a decent job against Breece Hall (14 for 62) and Braelon Allen (7 for 33) last week. Limiting chunk plays will be key for Tennessee, as huge swaths of Hall and Allen's yardage came on two big plays: a 30-yard gain for Hall and a 20-yard touchdown for Allen.

Given last week's results, and a heavy dose of Will Levis fades, I expect the Packers to be a favorite side this week. Green Bay can absolutely win this game, but repeating last week's performance on the road will be a tough ask. Levis is as mistake-prone as it gets, but the Packers' pash rush hasn't looked overly fearsome thus far. And at some point, the Titans are going to stop getting a punt blocked every week.

I like Tennessee to win a thoroughly weird game, but the Packers cover.

The pick: Titans 19 – Packers 17

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Raiders -5.5

Total: 40.5

Absolutely brutal break for the Raiders not getting their chance to tee off on Bryce Young. Eighteen games into his NFL career, the Panthers have officially pulled the plug – temporarily, at least – and will turn to Andy Dalton in search of some level of offensive competency. While it's a drastic decision by new head coach Dave Canales, it's hard to mount an argument in favor of Young right now. The Panthers may not be giving him much help, but Young appears to have made zero progress from last season – other than adding a new jump-pass to his repertoire.

Ultimately, I'm OK with the decision. Young was clearly drowning, and if the Panthers could do it over again, they probably wouldn't throw him to the wolves right away in Week 1 last season. Maybe the time spent watching Dalton benefits Young. But at the very least, it gives Carolina an opportunity to evaluate the rest of the roster and find out to what degree their issues are rooted solely in Young's play.

Anyway, they do have a game to play this week, and that comes against a Raiders team fresh off of a huge upset in Baltimore. The Ravens had multiple chances to go up three scores, but the Raiders forced a key turnover and went on to put up 20 points on their final four drives of the game.

There's no question Dalton should raise the floor for the Panthers' offense. Thus far, they've converted 2-of-22 third downs. That's outrageous. When he stepped in for Young in Week 3 of last season, Dalton completed 34-of-58 passes for 361 yards and two scores. However, the Panthers still lost that game to Seattle by 10 after giving up 425 total yards and letting up 25 second-half points.

For as bad as Carolina's offense has been, the defense hasn't been much better, and that's not changing anytime soon. The good news for Carolina is the Raiders are the worst rushing team in the NFL by a wide margin. Through two games, Vegas has just 98 yards on the ground and is averaging 2.5 yards per carry.

Can't believe I'm typing this, but we're going to hold our nose -- very, very tightly -- and take the points with Andy Dalton.

The pick: Raiders 24 – Panthers 20

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -4.5

Total: 41.5

For the second straight week, we took the bait with the Seahawks, and for the second straight week they failed to cover. This time, we couldn't even chalk it up as a push. Without Kenneth Walker, the Seattle running game struggled against New England, with Zach Charbonnet picking up just 2.7 yards per carry and failing to account for a play of longer than nine yards. Part of the credit goes to the New England defense, of course, but there's a clear downgrade from Walker to his fellow-second-round-pick backup.

Conversely, the new-look Seattle passing game took a huge step forward after a sloppy Week 1 performance against Denver. Geno Smith completed 33-of-44 passes for 327 yards, while both DK Metcalf (10-129-1) and Jaxson Smith-Njigba (12-117) had huge days. The Metcalf-JSN combo accounted for 70% of Smith's targets.

Miami will, of course, be without Tua Tagovailoa, who was officially placed on IR on Tuesday. That means he'll remain out until at least Week 8, so for the time being, the Dolphins will turn to Skylar Thompson. It's worth noting that Miami also brought in Tyler Huntley, who could get his shot at some point in the next month.

Thompson has been Tua's backup for two-plus seasons, and he's started a couple of games in that span, so he should at least be fully up to speed from a system perspective. Still, you have to wonder how much he lowers the ceiling of one of the league's most explosive offenses when fully healthy.

With De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in the mix, Miami still has the ability to generate enough big plays to potentially keep them in this game. And even without Tua, this is probably the best offense Seattle will have faced so far this season.

I like Miami to keep it within a touchdown and threaten for a late cover, but we'll roll with Seattle to finally come through for us.

The pick: Seahawks 26 – Dolphins 20

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Lions -3.0

Total: 51.5

Extremely fun game in the late window and easily our highest total of the week. While the Saints made the biggest statement in Week 2, the Cardinals' thrashing of the Rams was right up there. Arizona got a huge fourth-down stop early on and never looked back, ripping off four straight scoring drives to build a 24-3 lead midway through the second quarter.

The Cardinals did benefit from facing an extremely banged-up Rams team, but Kyler Murray has already issued a couple of early reminders that when he's locked in, he's still one of the NFL's elite playmakers.

Detroit enters Week 3 coming off of a wildly disappointing home loss to the Bucs. The numbers say Detroit dominated just about every phase of the game, but two Jared Goff picks and a horrendous performance in the red zone (one touchdown on seven trips) ultimately doomed Detroit to a 20-16 loss

While the Cards are emerging as one of the most fun teams in the league, this is still not a defense I trust whatsoever. They weren't really tested by the Rams last week, and I fully expect Detroit to come in refocused and re-committed to the ground game that carried them to a win in Week 1.

Arizona won't back down at home, but we'll roll with Detroit to win and cover the 3.0 behind big games from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

The pick: Lions 34 – Cardinals 28

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Ravens -1.5

Total: 48.5

Really, really difficult game to handicap. Usually I would reserve this title for a bad team vs. bad team matchup, but we're going to go ahead and slap the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week label on this one.

It feels inconceivable that Baltimore could fall to 0-3, but after blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead AT HOME to the Raiders, anything is on the table. Meanwhile, the Cowboys were firing on all cylinders against a good Browns defense in Week 1 before taking a thorough shellacking from the Saints in Week 2.

Dallas should be in a good spot here at home, but my heart says the Ravens aren't starting 0-3. Baltimore by a field goal.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Cowboys 24

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: 49ers -7.0

Total: 44.5

Another team looking to avoid an 0-3 start, the Rams absolutely need to win this game to have a chance to salvage a season that feels like it's already slipping away. Can they do that without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua? I'm not so sure they can.

Even before Kupp went down last week, LA was in trouble against Arizona and was never really able to mount any semblance of a comeback. I'm willing to somewhat-flush that game, but the Rams' injuries are getting to the point that they may be insurmountable – even against a Niners team down Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel.

Aside from Kupp and Nacua, the Rams are without multiple starters on the offensive line in addition to two starters in the secondary. If Stafford had one of Kupp or Nacua available, I'd take the Rams to cover. But without both, we'll roll with the Niners to clean up last week's mistakes and take care of business behind Jordan Mason and the ground game. Even without two starters on offense, the Niners still have a massive talent advantage – especially on defense.

The pick: 49ers 24 – Rams 14

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Chiefs -3.5

Total: 46.5

The Chiefs are sitting right where we expected at 2-0, but they've (arguably) been lucky to beat both Baltimore and Cincinnati. Last week played out in the most classic Chiefs-Bengals game possible. Joe Burrow zapped back to form, Kansas City committed three uncharacteristic turnovers, there was a controversial penalty, and the Chiefs somehow came out on the right side. 

Now down Isiah Pacheco for an extended period, I'll be interested to see just how much that impacts the KC ground game. We'll see plenty of Carson Steele and Samaje Perine on Sunday. That's an adequate combination, but there could be some clunkiness early on. 

The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off of an improbable straight-up in over the Eagles on Monday night. While Kirk Cousins looked better than Week 1 and Atlanta mixed in some play action, it wasn't exactly an offensive firestorm until the final drive. Atlanta remains incredibly Bijan-dependent, which may not be a bad thing, but eventually they'll need to unlock Kyle Pitts and Drake London on a more-consistent basis.

Playing at home without the burden of falling to 0-2, I like Atlanta to hang with the Chiefs. Lost in all of the hullabaloo, if you will, over the Falcons' offense is the fact that this is one of the most-talented defenses in the NFC – and a defense that took a huge step forward last season before adding Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons to the mix.

I'll take Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to move to 3-0, but I think we get a close game decided by a field goal that goes under 46.5.

The pick: Chiefs 23 – Falcons 20

Monday Night Football Double Feature

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -4.5

Total: 45.5

If you can come up with an argument as to why the Jaguars can win this game, I would love to hear it. The Jags have hit what appears to be rock bottom many, many times over the past few seasons, but last week's no-show against Cleveland was about as depressing as it gets. As soon as the Jags announced they were temporarily re-naming the stadium after Trevor Lawrence, who hasn't won a start in 10 months, I knew we were doomed. And yet, I couldn't get myself to bet on Deshaun Watson. Schedule-makers put us in a tough spot, if we're being honest.

Jacksonville now heads to Buffalo for a primetime spot against a Bills team that cruised to a win last Thursday and gets a two-day rest advantage. The Jags have played the Bills well in recent history, but this iteration of the Jags feels like it's teetering on the edge of a mutiny. Bad coaching + bad tackling + a bad offensive line is typically not a recipe for success in the National Football League.

If you're looking for a reason to hop on the Jags, there is a desperation element here. An 0-3 start is essentially a death knell on the season, and it could be a death knell for Doug Pederson, who's quickly worn out his welcome after saving the franchise from Urban Meyer.

I'm of the belief that the Bills aren't quite as dangerous as their 2-0 record would imply, but the Jags simply are not equipped right now to hang with Josh Allen in Buffalo, let alone a top-five Bills pass rush that should be able to tee off on Lawrence. Entering Week 3, the Jags are allowing a sack on 12.1% of dropbacks. They're also only one of three teams yet to force a turnover.

LIke Jacksonville, Buffalo is usually good for a handful of what the hell was that? games each year, but I don't think we see one of those on Monday night. 

For those of us in the Jaguars community, at least there's another game to watch.

The pick: Bills 28 – Jaguars 21

Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -7.5

Total: 48.5

This is an obvious backs-and-against-the-wall spot for Cincinnati, which probably should have won last week in Kansas City and knows it cannot fall to 0-3. I like Cincy to win this game, but can they cover the 7.5? I think they can. For one, Tee Higgins might be back in the mix, and even if he's on a snap count, that's a big deal for the Bengals. This should also be a smash spot for Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow.

Washington's defense has been abysmal thus far, particularly against the pass. Tampa Bay gouged Washington through the air, and even the Giants were able to put up three touchdowns last week. Cincy has faced two tough run defenses so far in New England and Kansas City, so this should feel like a nice level-down in competition. Washington ranks dead-last in the NFL in third-down conversion rate allowed (61.9%). 

I do have concerns about the Cincy run defense – Washington has averaged 5.4 YPC through two games – but ultimately this is a tough spot for a rookie quarterback making his first primetime start on the road. Washington's red zone offense has also been abysmal. The Commanders were 0-for-6 in the red zone last week, settling for field goals in the following situations:

• 1st and 10 at the Giants' 13-yard-line
• 1st and 10 at the Giants' 24-yard-line
• 1st and 10 at the Giants' 14-yard-line
• 1st and 10 at the Giants' 11-yard-line
• 1st and goal at the Giants' 8-yard-line
• 1st and goal at the Giants' 6-yard-line
• 1st and goal at the Giants' 10-yard-line

Given that dogs of at least 7.0 points are 3-0 SU and a ridiculous 8-0 ATS so far this season, I don't love this one. But that trend has to reverse at some point, and the Bengals will be locked in to avoid that 0-3 start.

The pick: Bengals 27 – Commanders 17