This article is part of our The Z Files series.
We're about a week away from the three-quarter pole, meaning the season can't be split evenly into quarters, so I'm taking a little liberty with the first set of data. Ultimately, it doesn't matter, as you'll soon see. The idea is to look at player performance in 40-game chunks, approximately one-fourth of the season. We'll study the first two quarters, then count backwards from Tuesday, August 7 until we get an average of 40 games played per team. There's a week overlap, but again, no big whoop.
The key when looking at the data is to ignore the names and focus on the numbers. In fact, the names could be left off, but then you'd be distracted trying to remember who each was. Yes, you would have. Though, it is fun to look back at the season and see who did what, just do it after digesting the numbers and understanding the implication they have on your team's category math.
What follows is the Top 30 from the standard batting categories in 5x5 play. To qualify for the batting average rankings, a hitter needed 100 plate appearances in that quarter.
March 28 – May 14
We're about a week away from the three-quarter pole, meaning the season can't be split evenly into quarters, so I'm taking a little liberty with the first set of data. Ultimately, it doesn't matter, as you'll soon see. The idea is to look at player performance in 40-game chunks, approximately one-fourth of the season. We'll study the first two quarters, then count backwards from Tuesday, August 7 until we get an average of 40 games played per team. There's a week overlap, but again, no big whoop.
The key when looking at the data is to ignore the names and focus on the numbers. In fact, the names could be left off, but then you'd be distracted trying to remember who each was. Yes, you would have. Though, it is fun to look back at the season and see who did what, just do it after digesting the numbers and understanding the implication they have on your team's category math.
What follows is the Top 30 from the standard batting categories in 5x5 play. To qualify for the batting average rankings, a hitter needed 100 plate appearances in that quarter.
March 28 – May 14
May 15 – June 18
June 29 – August 7
The maximum number of homers expected from any one player shouldn't exceed 14. A couple eclipsed that number in a 40-game slice, but when you're doing the category math, assume the best-case scenario is 14 dingers. The high for runs and RBI is about 40, with 15 being the best expected for steals. I think this one is cool. I have no idea who, but someone is going to hit over .360 the final quarter of the season.
This all comes into play when you're estimating what it takes to move up in each category. Hopefully, you're plotting the optimal way to protect a lead or perhaps discerning what it will take to jump into first place. For some in keeper leagues, the trade deadline is approaching, thus it's time to make an honest final assessment of your chances to take home a few jelly beans. If winning some oval shaped, fruit-flavored sugar pills isn't likely, it's time to fortify your foundation for next season.
If you think like me, well, I feel for you. That said, you're probably wondering the same thing I was when considering the above tables. Namely, are there any differences in stats by month? Does the heat in August affect hitting or pitching? What about roster expansion in September, how does that influence the numbers? The primary idea being, would it be better to spend the rest of August streaming, especially in leagues with innings limits or is it easier finding playable matchups in September?
Fortunately, our friends at www.baseball-reference.com break each season down via monthly splits. What ensues is a chart showing the relevant data for hitting and pitching. Hitting data is expressed per game. Pitching numbers are for starters, since that's what we logically care about when streaming. The study looks at 2015-2017.
2017
| Split | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB | ERA | WHIP | K/9 |
| April/March | 8.8 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4.04 | 1.08 | 7.9 |
| May | 9.3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4.59 | 1.00 | 7.8 |
| June | 9.8 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 4.76 | 1.10 | 7.9 |
| July | 9.3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4.52 | 0.98 | 8.1 |
| August | 9.3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 4.51 | 1.09 | 7.9 |
| Sept/Oct | 9.2 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 4.47 | 0.99 | 8.2 |
| Average | 9.3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4.49 | 1.04 | 8.0 |
2016
| Split | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB | ERA | WHIP | K/9 |
| April/March | 8.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4.10 | 1.02 | 7.9 |
| May | 8.9 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 4.27 | 0.98 | 7.6 |
| June | 9.4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4.59 | 1.00 | 7.7 |
| July | 8.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4.26 | 1.11 | 7.7 |
| August | 9.2 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4.47 | 1.05 | 7.7 |
| Sept/Oct | 8.9 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 4.30 | 1.11 | 8.0 |
| Average | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 4.34 | 1.04 | 7.8 |
2015
| Split | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB | ERA | WHIP | K/9 |
| April/March | 8.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.15 | 1.17 | 7.3 |
| May | 8.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3.97 | 1.05 | 7.3 |
| June | 8.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 3.98 | 1.05 | 7.3 |
| July | 8.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.92 | 0.99 | 7.2 |
| August | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 4.33 | 1.02 | 7.6 |
| Sept/Oct | 8.9 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 4.21 | 0.94 | 7.7 |
| Average | 8.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.10 | 1.03 | 7.4 |
Examining the hitting, homers and runs are up in August, which makes sense from a weather standpoint. So, if you need to make up ground on the offense side of the ledger, you best make some inroads in the next three weeks. This isn't to say you can't gain points in September, just the number of homers hit and runs scored are greater in the dog days of August. Of course, that holds true for your competitors.
While September ratios aren't appreciably different than the yearly average, they are generally lower than August. As such, if you're butting up against an innings cap, you may want to preserve those starts for September when scoring traditionally wanes. Similarly, if you're low on FAAB units, consider being judicious the rest of this month so you have budget remaining to take advantage of the more facile streaming conditions the final month of the campaign.
