The UFC is making up for lost time after a week without fights, as a jampacked 14-fight card is on the docket from Paris, France. We'll take a look at every bout across the slate, which features many closely lined fights and a few big underdog plays for DFS and betting platforms. Our lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Chris Duncan ($7,400)
Bolaji Oki is a powerful, athletic striker, but he worked incredibly slowly in his UFC debut, opting to sit behind a jab and be defensive for most of the fight. I'm picking Duncan to get more work done over the course of 15 minutes with swarming offense and takedown attempts. This will force Oki to deal with a challenge he has likely seldom faced on the regional scene.
Benoit Saint-Denis ($9,000)
Moicano's toughness over five rounds was well documented in his short-notice bout with Rafael dos Anjos, but the Brazilian is increasingly a jiujitsu-or-bust fighter, getting badly hurt in fights before needing to launch a comeback. "God of War" leaves openings with his striking offense, but the power and volume should be enough to make Moicano feel uncomfortable, which should lead to takedowns. Saint-Denis was able to completely neutralize another slick BJJ fighter on the ground in Thiago Moises, so there is little worry of a submission loss here.
Fares Ziam ($8,000)
As a rangy kickboxer who can also wrestle, Ziam will always have a difficult style for this division. The fight against Matt Frevola should be no exception, as Frevola will likely blitz forward, looking for big strikes and his own grappling exchanges. "The Smile Killer's" strength and footwork should make him the better fighter just about everywhere, and the aggressive nature of his opponent could lead to a higher score than we are used to seeing from the slow-paced Frenchman.
Brendan Allen ($7,300)
There aren't many committed, accomplished grapplers at middleweight. While this alone wouldn't be enough to get a victory over Nassourdine Imavov, Allen's ability to hang in the pocket with the better technical boxer in Chris Curtis gives me confidence that he will be pressing forward throughout the fight. Imavov has excellent footwork but can get a bit lazy when fighting off of his back foot. I expect "All In" to take advantage of this, sticking his opponent behind the black line before letting his offense flow.
Oumar Sy ($9,400)
Sy is such a ferocious wrestler and submission grappler that it's hard not to book him for his second consecutive 100-point performance against Da Woon Jung. "While Sseda" is a big man who can do a bit of everything in the cage, he has been bested by smaller wrestlers in the past, such as when Devin Clark connected for three takedowns and over five minutes of control time. I expect Sy to outpace the Korean fighter, who will likely never be able to get his offense going.
Victor Altamirano ($7,800)
Altamirano may be coming off back-to-back losses, but a high-paced wrestling-heavy style is alluring for an underdog, particularly one matched up with someone who was submitted in the first round of his UFC debut. Daniel Barez isn't shy about swinging in the pocket, but his lack of defense could once again get him in trouble on the feet, and Altimirano should be able to outscramble him if the fight hits the mat.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Taylor Lapilus OVER 72.5 Significant Strikes, Ailin Perez UNDER 41.5 Significant Strikes, and Ion Cutelaba OVER 30.5 Significant Strikes
Vince Morales is back in the UFC, and while he has been able to rack up some impressive submissions in promotions since his departure, "Vandetta" remains a pressuring, low-volume striker who seems uncomfortable pulling the trigger. This should allow a slick kickboxer like Lapilus to score with offense early and often, as Morales doesn't use his wrestling nearly as much as he should.
Perez will be at a four-inch reach disadvantage against a skilled kickboxer in Darya Zheleznyakova, which means she will likely want to find the clinch as often as possible. "Fiona" has shown the cardio and control to take an opponent down and keep them there over three rounds. This should make significant strikes hard to come by.
Chaotic, short fights have become Cutelaba's calling card, but we saw a much more cautious approach against a powerful fighter willing to slow the fight down in Philipe Lins. He will get a similar bout against Ivan Erslan, who is happy to sit behind a jab and be defensive. This should ensure a fight that gets into the latter rounds, leading to a decent amount of significant strikes landing on both sides.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
L'udovit Klein OVER 10 Minutes of Fight Time, Morgan Charriere UNDER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time, and Joanderson Brito UNDER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Klein has fast hands and enough power to get his knockouts, but he is a counter-combination fighter by nature, which means his fights are going to be slow-paced more often than not. Roosevelt Roberts stands tall in the pocket but will spend most of the fight looking for clinch exchanges. "The Predator" is a good submission grappler, which means we could see a lot of this fight take place jockeying for position against the fence. This will work to melt time off the clock.
Charriere is so athletic and powerful that I expect him to steamroll over fighters in the bottom half of this division. Gabriel Miranda is an aggressive grappler to a fault and is the type of fighter who uses constant offense as their defense. This should result in some big exchanges early on, with either fighter gaining a significant advantage depending on where the fight ends up.
Brito's nonstop aggression and strength make him a candidate to end fights early so often that it seems like a bargain to get a line that sees us going deep into the third round. William Gomis is a fighter who likes to control range, but Brito's style will make this almost impossible, guaranteeing another action-filled scrap.
Bets to Consider
Nora Cornolle wins by KO/TKO (+600)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti has benefitted from fights against two of the division's most foot-slow and one-note strikers, Josiane Nunes and Zarah Fairn. Against Cornolle, she will need to fight a dynamic striker who can cut off the cage and put combinations together, which will force Cavilcanti to do more than simply stick and move. This may seem like a well-matched fight, but I feel these ladies are on different skill levels, which Cornolle should make clear from the outset.
Bryan Battle Wins via KO/TKO (+600)
Like Cavalcanti, Kevin Jousset was able to capitalize on major shortcomings from his first two UFC opponents. Even with those advantages, Joussett has still absorbed a whopping 5.10 strikes per 15 minutes of fight time. Battle will be the hardest hitter Jousset has faced in the Octagon by a wide margin, but "The Butcher" has also developed some cage craft to go along with a nice jab and a serviceable wrestling game. All of this should equate to Battle being the far better fighter and finding a finish at some point.
