A 12-fight slate is actually a bit on the short side for UFC cards, but there are several intriguing bouts among those that bettors and DFS players alike can dig into to profit. We'll break down every bout on the card, including a lanky boxer against a post-hype prospect and a middleweight who will look to fight his way back to the title. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Islam Makhachev ($9,500)
I would like to be able to provide an incredibly nuanced breakdown for this main event, but the dynamic here is fairly straightforward. Dustin Poirier is a sharp boxer with power, but his inability to keep his back off of the fence will only lead to bad things against the lightweight champion, who will likely attempt to strike with "The Diamond" before bringing this fight to the ground. It's correct to say he has a puncher's chance, as I would argue Poirier gave Khabib Nurmagomedov the biggest scare he had in his UFC career when connecting with a left hook, but Islam is such a powerful control grappler that he likely won't have many options once the fight hits the mat.
Roman Kopylov ($8,200)
Kopylov instantly becomes one of my favorite plays on this card, considering that Cesar Almeida has only five professional MMA fights to his name. By contrast, Kopylov is a 15-fight veteran who has been known to get his KO/TKOs late in bouts. The Russian fighter is a methodical, technically sound kickboxer, while Almeida tends to extend too far on his own punches despite his extensive kickboxing background. He may not use it a lot, but Kopylov will also be able to employ a wrestling attack here to exploit his opponent's 62 percent takedown defense rate.
Grant Dawson ($9,300)
Along with being the far better grappler in this matchup, Dawson may have finally found an opponent he can outstrike. Joe Solecki is a decent wrestler and can operate well from top position, but we saw how easily Jared Gordon could get reversals and pin him to the mat. Dawson is a tremendous scrambler from the bottom, meaning that this fight should belong to him no matter where it occurs.
Bassil Hafez ($9,200)
Before this fight showed up on the card, I would have lost money wagering on whether Mickey Gall was still with the company. The man brought in to fight CM Punk hasn't had a bout in over two years when he lost by KO/TKO to Mike Malott. Before that fight, there were spurts in which it looked like his striking was improving, but ultimately, the 32-year-old never graduated beyond being a solid submission threat. We saw in his UFC debut that Hafez is a ball of energy that will swing big and look to take fights to the ground. If nothing else, I expect this style to wear on Gall, who we have seen run out of energy in the past.
Jailton Almeida ($9,000)
For as long as it lasts, this fight will be the messy powerfest we've come to expect from the heavyweight division. Almeida's hype train was stopped in its tracks after he got too tired to defend himself from elbows in a 50/50 position against Curtis Blaydes, resulting in a tremendous downgrade in class here. Alexandr Romanov is a powerful wrestler in his own right, but "King Kong" has been known to quit after running out of energy early in fights. This will likely be a nightmare due to the pace that Almeida keeps. While I did mention that the Brazilian gassed out in his last bout, this was after a round of non-stop grappling, and I have my doubts Romanov will be able to weather that storm.
Phil Rowe ($7,900)
There was a point in which Jake Matthews looked like he was about to turn a corner and fulfill the promise he showed early on, but his lack of activity, subpar striking defense, and absolute refusal to work a wrestling game gives him very little to work with against Phil Rowe, a slick striker who will carry a seven-inch reach advantage into this bout. If he can't simply outwork Matthews by sticking him out at range, then he should be able to use his wrestling to bleed minutes off the clock, as Matthews has defended takedowns at just a 62 percent rate in his UFC career.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Mitch Raposo OVER 38.5 Significant Strikes, Joselyne Edwards OVER 42.5 Significant Stikes, and Niko Price OVER 40.5 Significant Strikes
Raposo is a combination striker with power, and if his tape on the regional scene is any indication, he likely won't be much of a finisher at this level. The issue is that Raposo tends to be very patient when he hurts opposition, allowing them to hang around far longer than they should. We know that Andre Lima likes to box in the pocket and showed toughness prior to being bitten in his UFC debut. I expect this to be a striking battle at range for the duration, exceeding our total even if neither competitor shows a tremendous amount of volume.
Edwards got caught up in playing the clinch game of Nora Cornolle in her last fight, but she has generally been able to strike effectively against a wrestling attack, as evidenced by the 56 significant strikes she totaled against Lucie Pudilova in 2023. It is also worth noting that Ailin Perez will be on the wrong end of the height, reach, and strength equation in this one, likely resulting in elevated strike totals for both ladies.
There isn't much of anything that makes sense to me regarding betting lines for Price's fight over Alex Morono, including the total here. Despite getting caught in the clinch against Robbie Lawler, Price has been an offensive machine in his UFC career, landing 5.46 significant strikes per minute. While Morono has been a dedicated finisher in the past, that seems to be tapering off, as five of his last seven fights have gone to decision, with the two finishes over that span being a late-third round KO/TKO and an opportunistic choke.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Kevin Holland UNDER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time, and Randy Brown OVER 14.75 Minutes of Fight Time
It's difficult to watch Michal Oleksiejczuk walk headlong into the strikes of a fighter with an almost identical frame as Holland in Chidi Njokuani and not expect a short night. While there is some concern that "Hussar" will want to take the cautious route after being quickly finished in his last bout against Michel Pereira, both of these men rely on their offense to take over fights, and I expect things to develop rather quickly after a few exchanges.
In some respects, Brown's fight with Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos mirrors his last bout against Muslim Salikhov in that he is facing a much shorter, athletic opponent who will try to get on the inside. While that contest ended in a knockout, it should be noted that it was the first KO/TKO for "Rude Boy" since 2019 and his first finish since 2021. The Brazilian fighter is legendarily tough, having seen the final bell in all but three of his 31 career fights. That should make this a relatively comfortable bet to go to the scorecards.
Bets to Consider
Sean Strickland wins via KO/TKO (+190)
Paulo Costa is live in any fight due to his incredible power and athleticism. While generally durable, "The Eraser" was lit on fire by counter punches in fights against both Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. This gives Strickland a veritable skeleton key to Costa's rollerskates, as he will paw out his jab and hit him hard with counters when the Brazilian tries to return fire. There is only so much damage anyone can take, and I expect a battered Costa will have had enough by the middle rounds.
For another UFC betting perspective, check out our UFC 302 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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