This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 301 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 301 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Alessandro Costa (13-4-0) v. Kevin Borjas (9-2-0)
Alessandro Costa - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Kevin Borjas - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a bit of a downgrade in fighter from Costa's last fight. Borjas is a low-level fighter who was dominated on the feet in his debut. Costa will have the advantage everywhere in this fight, particularly with power and grappling. I expect an early finish from Costa to get himself back in the win column, making him a solid play for DFS contests.
UFC 301 Pick: Costa
Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0) v. Vinc Pichel (14-3-0)
Ismael Bonfim - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
Vinc Pichel - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight might be closer than some think. The grappling will likely be close between the two, leaving this to come down to striking. Bonfim is easily the better striker and would be wise to keep this on the feet. However, I would not expect a high score if there is no finish in this fight. I expect Bonfim to win but for this to be a close fight.
UFC 301 Pick: Bonfim
Dione Barbosa (6-2-0) v. Ernesta Kareckaite (5-0-1)
Dione Barbosa - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
Ernesta Kareckaite - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters are making their UFC debuts after wins in the Contender Series. Barbosa is a credentialed grappler and will have the edge on the mat, while Kareckaite will have a considerable edge on the feet. Kareckaite has solid takedown defense, and I expect Barbosa to get tired and frustrated from takedowns getting stuffed. This should lead to Kareckaite dominating on the feet and potentially finishing this early.
UFC 301 Pick: Kareckaite
Mauricio Ruffy (14-2-0) v. Jamie Mullarkey (17-7-0)
Mauricio Ruffy - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Jamie Mullarkey - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Ruffy is another fighter making his debut after a Contender Series win. He is a polished striker with great power and could crack Mullarkey's chin anytime. Mullarkey has been around a while and will have an edge grappling if he can get this to the mat. He is a tough trust given his lack of fight IQ. I expect the newcomer to continue his streak of knockouts and win his UFC debut.
UFC 301 Pick: Ruffy
Joaquim Silva (13-4-0) v. Drakkar Klose (14-2-1)
Joaquim Silva - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Drakkar Klose - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Silva excels against lower-level competition but tends to struggle against equal or better competition. Klose is better competition, and I expect him to have his way in this fight. However, Silva is always dangerous on the feet and only needs one shot to end a fight.
UFC 301 Pick: Klose
Jean Silva (12-2-0) v. William Gomis (13-2-0)
Jean Silva - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
William Gomis - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Gomis has won all three of his UFC fights but has yet to be dominant in one. He tends to be boring and low-scoring for DFS. Silva is slightly on the opposite side of that. His UFC debut resulted in a dominant first-round knockout, and I expect something similar here. The pressure should eventually get to Gomis, and a finish is likely.
UFC 301 Pick: Silva
Elves Brener (16-3-0) v. Myktybek Orolbai (12-1-1)
Elves Brener - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
Myktybek Orolbai - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a fun and exciting fight. Orolbai was incredible in his debut, racking up 10 takedowns and an eventual submission late in the second round. Brenner has been equally impressive, winning all three of his UFC fights, the last two by knockout. I do not see Orolbai having as much success with wrestling as Brenner is a solid grappler. The fight's winner likely scores well for DFS so both can be targeted. I like Brenner to continue his winning streak.
UFC 301 Pick: Brenner
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-7-0) v. Iasmin Lucindo (15-5-0)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 16 wins
Iasmin Lucindo - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Kowalkiewicz has reinvented herself recently, registering 139 and 141 significant strikes in her last two fights. However, she will unlikely repeat that in this fight against a better opponent. Lucindo features excellent striking and a solid ground game. I expect her to have her way in this fight, making her a solid play for DFS contests.
UFC 301 Pick: Lucindo
Joanderson Brito (16-3-1) v. Jack Shore (17-1-0)
Joanderson Brito - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
Jack Shore - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: In this fight, Shore must work fast and keep his guard up. Brito is scary powerful and has an excellent ground game to work with as well. Shore is dangerous in his own right, and it would not surprise me if he submitted Brito at some point. However, Brito's constant threat will likely be too much for Shore. This fight is excellent to target for GPP contests, as someone is likely getting finished.
UFC 301 Pick: Brito
Paul Craig (17-7-1) v. Caio Borralho (15-1-0)
Paul Craig - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 17 wins
Caio Borralho - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Craig is typically finish or bust. He does little striking and tends to reach for submissions. Borralho is sound defensively and tenacious on offense. I expect him to finish this fight early, which will likely not be pretty for Craig. Borralho is an excellent play for all contests.
UFC 301 Pick: Borraho
Michel Pereira (30-11-0) v. Ihor Potieria (21-5-0)
Michel Pereira - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 30 wins
Ihor Potieria - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Potieria is not a great fighter. He is wild and likes to rush in, hands down. That combination is a death omen against Pereira, who will sit back waiting for that knockout snipe. Pereira is also more likely to wrestle, but I do not see him needing it. Pereira should dominate this fight and is an excellent play for all contests.
UFC 301 Pick: Pereira
Anthony Smith (37-19-0) v. Vitor Petrino (11-0-0)
Anthony Smith - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 34 finishes in 37 wins
Vitor Petrino - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Smith got his bell rung in brutal fashion last time out; he likely should not be back so soon at his age. While Petrino has solid power, his wrestling wins him fights, and he should have no problem using it again here. I expect Petrino to chain takedowns and control against Smith, cruising to another UFC win.
UFC 301 Pick: Petrino
Jonathan Martinez (19-4-0) v. Jose Aldo (31-8-0)
Jonathan Martinez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Jose Aldo - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 31 wins
DFS Perspective: Aldo returns after retiring back in August of 2022. I would love to see him win, but it is hard to trust a guy who has not fought in over a year and a half after retiring. Martinez is sharp, has nasty kicks, and solid power. He should be able to win a decision in this one, as I do not see Aldo getting knocked out. However, a high score is not likely without an early finish.
UFC 301 Pick: Martinez
Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0) v. Steve Erceg (12-1-0)
Alexandre Pantoja - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 27 wins
Steve Erceg - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Pantoja is the champ going for his second title defense. His game has no glaring weakness, and he is a tough out for any fighter. Erceg shot up the UFC rankings and now gets a title shot many do not believe he deserves. However, he is as solid a fighter, and I fully expect him to be prepared for this fight. Pantoja is likely to control the fight, but Erceg is not easy. I expect this to be much closer than people think. I like Erceg to score the upset and win the belt.
UFC 301 Pick: Erceg
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
