This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 87 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight
Jair Rozenstruik (13-5-0) v. Shamil Gaziev (12-0-0)
DK Salaries: Rozenstruik ($7,900), Gaziev ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Rozenstruik (+130), Gaziev (-155)
The UFC planned on holding this event in Saudi Arabia. Depending on who you believe, either the local commission wasn't happy with the quality of the fights or, according to UFC President Dana White, a couple of the fights they planned on booking fell through. Either way, the end result is that the event is now taking place at the UFC Apex in Vegas.
Given the uncertainty around everything, Rozenstruik and Gaziev were booked to headline this card about three weeks ago. It sure feels as if the company grabbed two guys who didn't have anything going on and threw them together.
Rozenstruik is 1-3 in his past four fights, with a knockout win over Chris Daukaus and three non-competitive losses to Jailton Almeida (submission), Alexander Volkov (TKO) and Curtis Blaydes (unanimous decision) during that span. Jair had some success early in his UFC run knocking out lesser opposition, but the results have predictably flipped as the competition level has increased. I see no reason to believe any sort of rebound is forthcoming.
Gaziev just turned 34 and is undefeated in a dozen pro bouts. He earned a first-round submission win on Dana White's Contender Series to earn his UFC opportunity and then knocked out Martin Buday in his official company debut this past December. He appears to have some power and dominated Buday, but Martin isn't very good. Again, I'm not expecting Gaziev to go on any sort of run moving forward.
Gaziev is almost certainly the better grappler. I say that because he has three career wins via submission while Jair hasn't landed a single takedown in his five-plus years with the company. That said, I'd be flabbergasted if this became anything other than a back-and-forth, stand-up brawl.
Luckily for Rozenstruik, that's the only type of fight he can win these days. Jair has power, but he's a below-average athlete -- even with respect to heavyweights -- with zero means of generating secondary offense. He'll be 36 in mid-March, and if his durability is slipping in even the slightest, he's finished.
Say what you will about Jair, but experience is clearly on his side. He's been in the Octagon with Almeida, Volkov, Blaydes, Ciryl Gane and Francis Ngannou. Even the mid-tier guys Rozenstruik has faced -- Junior Dos Santos, Andrei Arlovski, Alistair Overeem -- are better than anyone Gaziev has seen.
I can't remember a card in which I had less interest in underdog plays. Picking all favorites is no fun, and while I'd probably take Gaziev straight up all things considered, I think Jair has a reasonable shot given the competition level he's faced, and the fact Shamil remains a virtual unknown.
THE PICK: Rozenstruik
Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (10-0-0) v. Tyson Pedro (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Petrino ($9,000), Pedro ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Petrino (-300), Pedro (+240)
Pedro looked quite good early in his UFC run, but a three-plus year layoff from December 2018 to April 2022 really set him back. He's won three of four since returning, all via knockout, but the victories have been over Anton Turkalj, Harry Hunsucker and Ike Villanueva. Those last two names were released following their bouts with Pedro, and Turkalj is barely hanging on. Until I see more, I'm all for fading Pedro against halfway decent competition. His last quality win was against Paul Craig in 2017.
Petrino is 3-0 in the UFC, with a unanimous decision win over Turkalj, a submission of Marcin Prachnio and a knockout of Modestas Bukauskas. Vitor certainly hasn't been swimming in the deep end of the pool since arriving on the scene almost exactly a year ago. For what's it's worth, Pedro's one loss since returning is to Bukauskas via unanimous decision.
I've always felt Pedro had an intriguing skill set for the light heavyweight division. At 6-foot-3, he has an ideal frame for 205 pounds. Back in the day, I would have said he had no overwhelming weaknesses in game. Now, I'm not so sure.
We've seen Pedro taken down repeatedly in certain fights. His takedown defense as a result is a woeful 52 percent. The sample size is small, but Petrino has taken down each of this three UFC opponents, with 12 takedowns during that span. He may very well be able to beat this version of Pedro in the stand-up, but there's no sense taking that risk. Vitor should employ a wrestling-oriented game plan in this fight. It's his clearest path to victory.
Whether or not Petrino has long-term staying power is up for debate, but I'm totally comfortable fading Pedro here. The issue is the price tag. I have little interest in spending $9K on Vitor, even if I think he's going to win.
I don't trust Pedro's durability, and I could easily see a scenario in which Petrino lands multiple takedowns and turns this into a boring, grinding affair. As I stated earlier, I'm completely out on Tyson until further notice.
THE PICK: Petrino
Flyweight
Muhammad Mokaev (11-0-0, 1NC) v. Alex Perez (24-7-0)
DK Salaries: Mokaev ($9,100), Perez ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Mokaev (-360), Perez (+285)
Set to turn just 24 years of age in late July, Mokaev has quickly established himself as one of the top young fighters in a thin flyweight division. He's a perfect 5-0 in the UFC, with four submissions and a unanimous decision on his resume. The competition he's faced has been fair, but not elite. Mokaev's two best victories are over Tim Elliott and Cody Durden.
Perez needs a victory in the worst way. He's lost back-to-back fights, both via submission, and is without a win dating back to June 2020. Now, those two losses came against Deiveson Figueiredo in a title fight, and to Alexandre Pantoja, who is now UFC Flyweight Champion, but it would been really difficult to sell a soon-to-be 33-year-old as any sort of legitimate contender, even in a thin division, if Perez's loses a third in a row here.
Mokaev's calling card is his wrestling. he averages a ridiculous and unsustainable 6.47 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's gotten each of his last four opponents to the mat at least three times. That said, he's facing an opponent in Perez that is also a quality wrestler (2.84 takedowns landed per 15 minutes), and Mokaev has struggled to remain upright at times. He was taken down once by Elliott, Durden, and Malcolm Gordon, but ended up submitting all three of them.
I'm still not convinced Mokaev is a future champion, but this looks like a solid matchup for him. He's about eight years younger than Perez and will enter with an inch edge in height and five-inch edge in reach.
The main concern for Perez is obviously the ground game of Mokaev. As I mentioned earlier, four of Muhammad's five UFC wins have come via submission. Five of Perez's seven career defeats are via the same method. I'm not saying Alex is looking for the escape hatch when he ends up in a compromising position on the mat, but he's going up against a talented, more physical, younger opponent. Then there's the fact Perez doesn't have a single notable UFC victory outside of his win over Jussier Formiga, who eventually lost three straight and was released from the company.
There's going to be a time -- probably sooner than later -- that fading Mokaev will be the play, but I don't think this is the spot. Nothing in Perez's recent -- or non-recent -- background suggests there will be an upset forthcoming here.
THE PICK: Mokaev
Bantamweight
Raul Rosas (8-1-0) v. Ricky Turcios (13-3-0)DK Salaries: Rosas ($9,000), Turcios ($7,200)Vegas Odds: Rosas (-245), Turcios (+200)THE PICK: Rosas
Editor's Note (2/23): While originally scheduled to fight here after the previous week's fight in Mexico City fell through, it has since been announced that it won't be happening at UFC Vegas 87. Look for the UFC to re-book these two at a later date.
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Eryk Anders (15-8-0, 1NC) v. Jamie Pickett (13-10-0)
DK Salaries: Anders ($9,300), Pickett ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Anders (-425), Pickett (+330)
THE PICK: Anders
Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov (16-0-0) v. Bekzat Almakhan (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($9,700), Almakhan ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-1200), Almakhan (+750)
THE PICK: Nurmagomedov
Lightweight
L'udovit Klein (20-4-1) v. AJ Cunningham (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Klein ($9,600), Cunningham ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Klein (-835), Cunningham (+575)
THE PICK: Klein
Flyweight
Matt Schnell (16-7-0, 1NC) v. Steve Erceg (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Schnell ($7,000), Erceg ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Schnell (+250), Erceg (-310)
THE PICK: Erceg
Bantamweight
Vinicius Oliveira (19-3-0) vs. Bernardo Sopaj (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Oliveira ($8,600), Sopaj ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (-150), Sopaj (+125)
THE PICK: Sopaj
Bantamweight
Aiemann Zahabi (10-2-0) v. Javid Basharat (14-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Zahabi ($6,700), Basharat ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Zahabi (+500), Basharat (-700)
THE PICK: Basharat
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan (9-1-0) v. Claudio Ribeiro (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Duncan ($8,900), Ribeiro ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Duncan (-300), Ribeiro (+240)
THE PICK: Duncan
Lightweight
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15-3-0) v. Loik Radzhabov (17-5-1)
DK Salaries: Al-Selwady ($8,400), Radzhabov ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Al-Selwady (-160), Radzhabov (+135)
THE PICK: Radzhabov
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 87 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
