Target Breakdown: WR & TE Usage Report + Week 2 Fantasy Waivers Preview

League-wide stats from Week 1 look like they came from the early 1990s, or perhaps from a Week 17 slate with multiple snow games and a slew of backup quarterbacks. It was a decent week for RBs and an excellent one for QB rushing stats, but passing numbers were dreadful, with signal-callers averaging 30.5 attempts, 203.5 yards (6.7 YPA) and 1.09 TDs. While completion and interception rates were about normal -- 64 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively -- the average catch went for just 10.4 yards, compared to an average of 10.9 each of the past two seasons.

Things won't be this bad for passing/receiving production all year, but it's especially noticeable in light of the past two seasons being low-scoring and light on passing stats relative to the preceding years. Another step backward would put the league at mid-aughts levels of offensive efficiency, just with higher completion rates and less yards per completion. I discussed a lot of this stuff a couple weeks ago in my State of the NFL article, but Week 1 suggests I may have erred in predicting a rebound for offensive efficiency.

While increases or decreases in league-wide efficiency don't always have major fantasy implications, it could be a true game-changer if the Week 1 trend of more rushing plays (and fewer pass attempts) continues over the course of a full season. That would likely mean a lot of RBs outperforming their ADPs and a lot of WRs and TEs disappointing, which then has a secondary impact of making the exceptions (standouts at WR and TE) even more valuable due to a surprising lack of strong alternatives at their positions.

Week 1 was full of disappointments at WR and TE, with things especially bad at the latter position even though Isaiah Likely kicked off the season with a shocking 9-111-1 receiving line. He ended up being one of just three TEs to draw more than five targets and nearly doubled the yardage total of second-place Brock Bowers (58 yards).

Things were a bit less bleak at wide receiver, where eight players recorded triple-digit yardage and three others had five-plus catches and multiple touchdowns. Cooper Kupp incredibly drew 21 targets, nine more than any other player (Tyreek Hill, Wan'Dale Robinson and Courtland Sutton had 12 apiece). A lot of what you see below will build on the findings from Box Score Breakdown, in which I recap all 16 games with the help of stat tables that show everything from yardage to snap shares to routes run to air yards to TPRR.

This article is intended to help with waiver decisions, trades or DFS lineups as pertains to wide receivers and tight ends, while sister article Backfield Breakdown essentially is the same thing for running backs. Time constraints mean I may not get to treat WRs and TEs with the same level of detail RBs got, which might not be the worst thing given that it's harder to get a read on pass-catcher roles when dealing with small samples.

I generally caution against strong reactions based on poor production or even a lack of targets through the first week or two of the season, unless there's an additional underline problem like the player getting far fewer snaps than expected or his team losing its starting QB to a serious injury. Guys that have historically been drawn targets on a high percentage of their routes likely will continue to do so, and a lot of time early season struggles can be chalked up to fluky factors like depressed team play volume, penalties wiping out big plays, tough matchups, etc.

Weekly WR/TE Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

• WR Rome Odunze (knee / week-to-week)
• WR Puka Nacua (knee / likely IR)
• WR Jordan Addison (ankle / day-to-day)
• WR Darius Slayton (concussion / day-to-day)
• WR Jauan Jennings (ankle / day-to-day)

Nacua dealt with a knee injury this preseason, reported as a bursa sac problem, but he's now said to have a PCL injury -- likely sending him to injured reserve -- after exiting Sunday night's game in the second quarter following what looked like a pretty harmless play. He may have been dealing with a PCL sprain all along, which is extremely frustrating for anyone that drafted him in fantasy thinking he only had a bursa sac injury (much less serious). Either way, Tyler Johnson had a nice game filling in at WR alongside Kupp and Demarcus Robinson, and we could also see rookie Jordan Whittington push for more snaps in the coming weeks. Fantasy managers should plan to be without Nacua for at least four games, and quite possibly longer.

The news for Odunze isn't as bad, with his sprained ligament being a MCL rather than PCL. He left Sunday's win over Tennessee in the fourth quarter and is now considered week-to-week. It sounds like DeAndre Carter or Tyler Scott will fill in as Chicago's No. 3 receiver for at least a game or two.

Things sound better for Addison, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in his left leg in August and then a right ankle sprain this past Sunday. The good news, apart from not yet being ruled out for Week 2, is that Addison looked healthy prior to the new injury, playing 93 percent of snaps before halftime while putting up 3-35-0 on a team-high four targets. His previous ankle sprain seems to be a non-issue.

• TE Jake Ferguson (knee)
• TE David Njoku (ankle)
• TE Foster Moreau (head)

A brutal week for TEs got even worse when Njoku and Ferguson both left the Dallas-Cleveland game early. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski deemed Njoku week-to-week but declined to confirm or deny reports that the tight end suffered a high-ankle sprain. It sounds like Njoku will miss some time, while Ferguson seemed to get better news even though his knee injury looked pretty bad at the time. Ferguson reportedly is dealing with a minor MCL sprain and a bone bruise, and he hasn't been totally ruled out for Week 2... yet.

Missed Week 1

• WR Tee Higgins (hamstring)
• WR Marquise Brown (shoulder)
• WR Josh Downs (ankle)
• WR A.T. Perry (hand)
• WR Roman Wilson (ankle)
• WR Odell Beckham (PUP - unspecified)
• WR Kendrick Bourne (PUP - knee)
• WR Ricky Pearsall (NFI - chest)
• WR DJ Chark (IR - hip)

• TE Pharaoh Brown (foot)
• TE Tyler Higbee (PUP - ACL)
• TE T.J. Hockenson (PUP - ACL)
• TEs Ian Thomas (IR - calf) & Tommy Tremble (hamstring)

Stock Report 📊

There weren't many big receiving lines Week 1, and it's too early to panic for most of the guys that are getting plenty of playing time but not putting up the stats we want (that'll be true after Week 2 as well in a lot of cases). Most of the Up/Down assessments below will focus on players whose roles landed on the very high/low end relative to pre-season hopes and expectations. As the season moves along, I'll start to include more pass catchers that are getting plenty of snaps/routes but not doing much with them.

Also keep in mind that we're talking about value relative to pre-season expectations. Ray-Ray McCloud trending upward doesn't mean anyone in a typical 10/12-team league should think about adding him; it means he confirmed his role as the No. 3 receiver and is on the board as a cheap DFS guy or depth WR for deep leagues. The biggest value gainers from Week 1 will be in bold below.

• AYS = Air-Yard Share (percent of team's air yards)
• TS = Target Share

Trending Up 📈

Wide Receivers 📈

Jameson Williams - 85% snaps / 93% routes / 5-125-1 on nine tgts (32% TS - 68% AYS)

Keon Coleman - 72% snaps / 88% routes (team high) / 22% TS (team high)

Brian Thomas - 76% snaps / 75% routes / 4-47-1 on four tgts (21% TS)

  Xavier Worthy - 77% routes / two TDs

Ladd McConkey - 65% snaps / 78% routes / 5-39-1 on seven tgts (28% TS - 26% AYS)

Rashid Shaheed - 75% snaps pre-Q4 / 3-73-1 on five tgts (21% TS - 42% AYS)

Adonai Mitchell - 65% snaps / 71% routes / 26% TS / 28% AYS

Xavier Legette - 58% snaps / 66% routes / 24% TS / 35% AYS

Jalen McMillan - 82% snaps / 84% routes / 1-32-1 on three tgts (10% TS - 34% AYS)

Wan'Dale Robinson - 68% snaps / 75% routes / 6-44-0 on 12 tgts (32% TS - 34% AYS)

Allen Lazard - 100% snaps / 97% routes / 6-89-2 on nine tgts (31% TS / 54% AYS)

Tyler Johnson - 66% snaps / 67% routes / 5-79-0 on seven tgts (15% TS / Nacua injury

Quentin Johnston - 67% snaps / 82% routes / 3-38-0 on five tgts (20% TS - 30% AYS)

Devaughn Vele - 51% snaps / 59% routes / 8-39-0 on eight tgts (19 TS - 6% AYS)

Andrei Iosivas - 100% snaps / 100% routes / 3-26-0 on six tgts (21% TS)

Alec Pierce - 84% snaps / 86% routes / 3-125-1 on three tgts (16% TS - 37% AYS)

Ray-Ray McCloud - 48% snaps / 64% routes / 4-52-0 on seven tgts (30% TS)

Rashod Bateman - 84% snaps / 88% routes / 42% air-yard share

Mack Hollins - 60% snaps / 64% routes / 2-25-1 on two tgts (9% TS)

Tight Ends 📈

Kyle Pitts - 96% snaps / 96% routes / 3-26-1 on three tgts (13% TS)

Brock Bowers - 68% snaps / 70% routes / 6-59-0 on eight tgts (25% TS - 26% AYS)

Isaiah Likely - 70% snaps / 57% routes / 9-111-1 on 12 tgts (30% TS - 39% AYS)

Dalton Schultz - 79% snaps / 81% routes / 3-15-0 on three tgts (10% TS)

Tucker Kraft - 95% snaps / 76% routes / 2-37-0 on three tgts (9% TS)

Hunter Henry - 84% snaps / 80% routes / 2-18-0 on three tgts (13% TS)

Colby Parkinson - 88% snaps / 80% routes / 4-47-0 on five tgts (10% TS)

Noah Fant - 73% snaps / 74% routes / 2-11-0 on four tgts (16% TS - 15% AYS)

Theo Johnson - 97% snaps / 70% routes / 11% TS / 17% AYS

Greg Dulcich - 68% snaps / 66^ routes / 2-12-0 on three tgts (7% TS)

Hayden Hurst - 63% snaps / 78% routes / 2-33-0 on three tgts (12% TS - 23% AYS)

Zach Ertz - 70% snaps / 81% routes / 3-28-0 on four tgts (17% TS - 23% AYS)

Jordan Akins - 57% snaps / 51% routes / 3-27-0 on four tgts / Njoku injury

Trending Down 📉

Wide Receivers 📉

Curtis Samuel - 28% snaps / 32% routes / 9% TS

Dontayvion Wicks - 47% snaps / 43% routes / 9% TS / drop

Marvin Mims - 17% snaps / 14% routes/ 2% TS

Tight Ends 📉

Cole Kmet - 49% snaps / 39% routes / 3% TS

Chigoziem Okonkwo - 57% snaps / 51% routes / 7% TS

Luke Musgrave - 26% snaps / 22% routes / 6% TS

Jonnu Smith - 29% snaps / 40% routes / 6% TS

Michael Mayer - 58% snaps / 35% routes / 9% TS

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

Only includes players rostered in half or less of Yahoo! Leagues

Wide Receivers

Potential Starters

• Gabe Davis - 37%
• Jerry Jeudy - 45%
• Demarcus Robinson - 7%
• Adonai Mitchell - 31%
• Jakobi Meyers - 48%
• Adam Thielen - 33%
• Rashod Bateman - 13%
• Wan'Dale Robinson - 10%
• Darnell Mooney - 17%
• Allen Lazard - 4%
• Michael Wilson - 14% 
• Greg Dortch - 6% 
• DeMario Douglas - 15%
• Tyler Johnson - 1% 
• Andrei Iosivas - 11% 
• Alec Pierce - 3%
• Jalen Tolbert - 3%
• Tyler Boyd - 3%
• Ray-Ray McCloud - 2%
• Josh Reynolds - 1%

Bench Stashes

• Ja'Lynn Polk - 22%
• Xavier Legette - 15%
• Jalen McMillan - 5% 
• Jordan Whittington - 1%
• Josh Downs (ankle) - 25%
• Mike Williams - 42%
• Luke McCaffrey - 7%
• Roman Wilson - 4%
• Jermaine Burton - 3%

Potential Drops

• Curtis Samuel (shallow leagues) - 53%
• Dontayvion Wicks - 24%
• Jahan Dotson - 14%
• Marvin Mims - 7%
• Odell Beckham - 4%

Tight Ends

Recommended Adds

• Isaiah Likely - 29%
• Colby Parkinson - 7%
• Tyler Conklin - 21%
• Noah Fant - 31%
• Hunter Henry - 24%
• Cade Otton - 21%  
• Jordan Akins - 0%
• Tucker Kraft - 2%
• Ja'Tavion Sanders - 1%
• Theo Johnson - 1%
• Greg Dulcich - 2%
• Hayden Hurst - 1%
• Theo Johnson - 1%
• Luke Schoonmaker - 0%

Potential Drops

• Cole Kmet - 57%
• Luke Musgrave - 54%
• Chigoziem Okonkwo - 10%
• Jonnu Smith - 8%