Hidden Stat Line: Backfield Projections for Week 1

This article is part of our Hidden Stat Line series.

Ninety-five percent of NFL preseason action is worthless for fantasy purposes, and the other five percent can do more harm than good if we don't know what to look for and what to ignore. But there are always some needles in the haystack, especially when we focus on playing time rather than statistics.

Three summers ago, new Rams coach Sean McVay used Todd Gurley in an every-down role with the first-team offense during the preseason. Maybe that seems obvious now, but earlier that summer there had been a lot of talk about Lance Dunbar or another depth back handling passing downs. Instead, we got a strong sign Gurley was ticketed for the role, and he went on to catch 64 passes in 15 games that season, matching his total from the first two years (and 29 games) of his career. Nobody could've predicted the full extent of his 2017 breakout, but at least one part of it was related to a preseason clue.

It was a similar story last summer with Leonard Fournette, who mostly is known as a bruiser but nonetheless played all three downs with the first-team offense in preseason action. He may not actually be suited for that every-down role, but a lack of route-running prowess didn't stop him from finishing the year with 75 receptions, which allowed him to outproduce his ADP despite struggling with a touchdown allergy.

I guess my point is that the preseason isn't totally worthless, and the nuggets of information it provides can either confirm or contradict what beat writers are reporting from training camp. Without that information, we arguably become more reliant on the aforementioned beat writers, some of whom may be intentionally mislead (competitive advantage!) by the teams they cover.

Even so, it's worth taking a shot at predicting backfield usage, relying on a combination of 2019 results, camp reports and intuition. This is our special, pre-Week 1 edition of Hidden Stat Line, a comprehensive, stat-based recap of every NFL game throughout the season. Last year, we crammed it all into one article. This year, we'll review backfield usage every Monday, followed by wide receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks on Tuesday.

And if you're looking for projections that are more than one man's opinion, go ahead and check out our Weekly NFL Projections, which also have some of my input but are more of a team effort. 

Or, if you just want to see my workload projections in one chart... scroll all the way down to the bottom of this article.

(Team implied totals listed in parentheses)

Backfield Breakdown - Week 1 Projections

Houston Texans (22.25) @ Kansas City Chiefs (31.75)

Houston

Snap projection: David Johnson (65%), Duke Johnson (35%)

Carry projection: David Johnson (14), Duke Johnson (6)

Target projection: David Johnson (4), Duke Johnson (3)

Notes

• The Texans are carrying only three RBs, the third being Buddy Howell, who has played 545 snaps on special teams and only 39 on offense in 31 NFL games (all for Houston).
• This is the obligatory part where I say Duke is better than David. But my opinion doesn't really matter for the Week 1 volume projection, because David was part of the DeAndre Hopkins trade and is one of the highest-paid players at his position, strongly suggesting the Texans are both confident in his ability and emotionally/financially committed to his success. Plus, the powers that be long ago decided Duke (at 5'9", 210 pounds) is a pillow-soft scatback, while David — being 14 pounds heavier and four inches taller, a.k.a. thinner — is a big ol' manly man WORKHORSE FACTOR BACK. To be fair, the elder Johnson is certainly talented, and he's largely been a victim of bad luck with injuries, coaching and blocking. If it sounds like I hate him, that's only because I'm bitter toward anyone and anything standing between my King Duke and the throne. I wish all Johnsons the best of luck this year.

Kansas City

Snap projection: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (55%), Darrel Williams (40%), Darwin Thompson (5%)

Carry projection: CEH (12), Williams (6), Thompson (2)

Target projection: Edwards-Helaire (3.75), Williams (2.25), Thompson (0.25)

Notes

• More so than most other backfields, this one requires the disclaimer that it's merely an educated guess. These three guys have played a grand total of 416 offensive snaps in NFL regular-season games.
• FWIW, Kareem Hunt played 65 percent of snaps his rookie season and 70 percent his second season, averaging 16.8 carries and 3.6 targets in 27 regular-season games for the Chiefs. His share of the team's backfield production was around three-quarters or even higher, as KC typically didn't give the ball to a running back unless it was Hunt who was on the field. (There's been some talk of CEH and Williams splitting snaps evenly, but that doesn't mean touch volume or production would be close to 50-50.)

Seattle Seahawks (25.25) @ Atlanta Falcons (23.75)

Seattle

Snap projection: Chris Carson (60%), Carlos Hyde (25%), Travis Homer (15%)

Carry projection: Carson (16), Hyde (6), Homer (1)

Target projection: Carson (3), Hyde (1), Homer (1)

  Notes

• Carson played more than three-quarters of offensive snaps in nine of his 15 games last year, but he also had four games right around 50 percent, not counting the one where he suffered a season-ending hip fracture. All in all, his snap share in active games last season was 70 percent, seventh-largest among RBs. I'm guessing the Seahawks sub Hyde in for some carries and Homer in for some passing downs, but it is possible they use Carson as a three-down workhorse at some point this year, if not Week 1.

Atlanta

Snap projection: Todd Gurley (65%), Brian Hill (20%), Ito Smith (15%)

Carry projection: Gurley (14), Hill (4), Smith (2)

Target projection: Gurley (4), Hill (1.25), Smith (1.25)

Notes

• Devonta Freeman played 65% of snaps in his 14 games last year, averaging 13.1 carries and 5.0 targets. Projecting Gurley for a similar role feels reasonable enough.
• In early August, coach Dan Quinn said Smith and Hill would share the No. 2 RB job. Then, a few days ago, Quinn said Hill is "one of the most improved players that I've seen over the last few years." Finally, Quinn said Monday that Hill has "earned more playing time." Maybe a strong camp put Hill solidly ahead of Smith? Or maybe Quinn just talks too much?

Cleveland Browns (20.25) @ Baltimore Ravens (28.25)

Cleveland

Snap projection: Nick Chubb (65%), Kareem Hunt (45%)

Carry projection: Chubb (15.5), Hunt (6)

Target projection: Hunt (4.25), Chubb (2.25)

Notes

• Chubb averaged 18.0 carries and 2.1 targets in Hunt's eight games last year, playing 64 percent of snaps. Hunt averaged 5.4 carries and 5.5 targets, playing 60% of snaps.
• Chubb and Hunt aren't likely to combine for 124 percent snap share again. Remember, the Browns didn't have a fullback or a decent tight end last November and December. Now they have Andy Janovich as a lead blocker and Austin Hooper potentially handling a three-down role at tight end. That's not to stay the double-tailback packages will disappear under Kevin Stefanski, but I'm predicting about five snaps per game instead of 15. We'll have a better idea soon enough!

Baltimore

Snap projection: Mark Ingram (50%), J.K. Dobbins (40%), Gus Edwards (10%)

Carry projection: Ingram (12), Dobbins (8), Edwards (3)

Target projection: Ingram (2.25), Dobbins (2), Edwards (0.25)

Notes

• My best guess, at least to start the season, is Dobbins taking on a beefier version of the 2019 Gus-the-Bus role, which worked out to 7.5 carries and 0.4 targets per game before a meaningless Week 17. If nothing else, Dobbins should see more receiving work than Edwards did.
• Ingram averaged 13.5 carries and 1.9 targets on 49 percent snap share, though he played more than half the snaps in competitive situations (Baltimore rested starters in the fourth quarter of blowouts a few times, and Ingram was usually the first to go). If we only look at games decided by one score, Ingram's snap shares were 58, 61, 66, 39, 55 and 55 percent. Of course, the Ravens didn't have Dobbins last year.

New York Jets (16.5) @ Buffalo Bills (23)

New York

Snap projection: Le'Veon Bell (60%), Frank Gore (40%)

Carry projection: Bell (13), Gore (8)

Target projection: Bell (5.5), Gore (1.5)

Notes

• Brian Costello of the NY Post and Rich Cimini of ESPN both mentioned a "60/40" backfield split in training camp. I'll go with that for the snap share, but Bell should see the ball on a larger percentage of his plays.
• Rookie fourth-round pick La'Mical Perine has an ankle injury. It isn't clear he'll play, nor is it clear he'll have a role on offense even if he's active.

Buffalo

Snap projection: Devin Singletary (60%), Zack Moss (40%)

Carry projection: Singletary (12), Moss (10)

Target projection: Singletary (3.5), Moss (1.5)

Notes

• The split between Singletary and Moss will be closely watched by the fantasy football world. Reports suggest both players will have significant roles, but it isn't clear if that means a 1A/1B situation or more of a traditional starter/backup split. Both guys appear capable as runners and pass catchers, but we can at least say the 223-pound Moss is the better bet for goal-line work (the Bills used Gore over Singletary near the end zone last year).
• T.J. Yeldon also made the roster, and it isn't totally out of the question that he could get a little playing time on passing downs. Not enough to have any fantasy value, but even 10 snaps per game would gum things up for Singletary and Moss. Yeldon was a healthy scratch for the Bills for most of last season, with the team typically activating a special teams player (Senorise Perry last year, Taiwan Jones now) for the No. 3 role on gamedays. That's why I'm not giving Yeldon a projection, though I'd probably give him a carry and a target if I knew he wasn't going to be on the inactive list.

Las Vegas Raiders (25.25) @ Carolina Panthers (22.25)

Vegas

Snap projection: Josh Jacobs (60%), Jalen Richard (35%), Devontae Booker (5%)

Carry projection: Jacobs (19), Richard (4), Booker (1)

Target projection: Jacobs (3.25), Richard (3.25), Booker (0.25) 

Notes

• I'm projecting a traditional split, with Jacobs dominating carries and Richard handling obvious passing situations. I'm not sure if Booker will actually have a role, as he may have won the No. 3 job based on his special teams experience.
• The Raiders released Theo Riddick and traded Lynn Bowden to Miami, leaving three RBs on the initial 53-man roster.
• RBs accounted for 23.8 percent of the Raiders' targets last year, the eighth-largest share of any team. The large overall portion may have gone unnoticed because Jacobs, Richard and DeAndre Washington each landed between 27 and 43 targets for the season.

Carolina

Snap projection: Christian McCaffrey (88%), Mike Davis (12%)

Carry projection: McCaffrey (17), Davis (3)

Target projection: McCaffrey (7.25), Davis (0.5)

Notes

• A new coaching staff might use its backup RBs a bit more often, but it's still hard to take McCaffrey off the field for more than a breather if you like winning football games. Maybe Matt Rhule and Joe Brady take their feet off the pedal later in the year if/when a playoff appearance is totally out of the question.
• The Panthers released last year's backup, Reggie Bonnafon, going with Davis and Trenton Cannon instead. Joe Person of The Athletic reports that Davis — a 27-year-old journeyman — emerged as the clear No. 2 in training camp, showing potential to play on all three downs in the event of a C-Mac injury.

Chicago Bears (20.5) @ Detroit Lions (23.5)

Chicago (updated Sunday morning)

Snap projection: David Montgomery (50%), Tarik Cohen (50%)

Carry projection: Montgomery (15), Cohen (5)

Target projection: Cohen (6), Montgomery (2.5)

Notes

• Cohen played 46 percent of snaps in 2018 and 50 percent in 2019. He averaged 6.2 carries and 5.7 targets per game in his first season under Matt Nagy, followed by 4.0 carries and 6.5 targets last year.
• Sunday update: Montgomery is expected to play and handle his normal workload.

Detroit

Snap projection: Kerryon Johnson (55%), D'Andre Swift (30%), Adrian Peterson (15%)

Carry projection: Johnson (11), Swift (6), Peterson (5)

Target projection: Johnson (3.5), Swift (2), Peterson (0.5)

Notes

• This was going to be tough enough to predict even before Peterson signed with the Lions. Most reports suggest Swift's unspecified injury isn't serious, but the missed practice time could mess up his Week 1 role even if he's back at full strength.
• Ty Johnson, Bo Scarbrough (IR - undisclosed) and return specialist Jamal Agnew also made the team, but I don't anticipate any of them getting more than a couplebackfield snaps early in the year.

Indianapolis Colts (26.25) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18.75)

Indianapolis

Snap projection: Marlon Mack (40%), Jonathan Taylor (30%), Nyheim Hines (30%)

Carry projection: Mack (12), Taylor (12), Hines (2)

Target projection: Hines (3.5), Mack (1.5), Taylor (1.5) 

Notes

• I'm not sure how the Mack/Taylor split will be handled, but we can at least say the matchup — playing as 7.5-point favorites against a run defense that was putrid last year — favors those two over Hines.

Jacksonville (updated Sunday morning)

Snap projection: James Robinson (50%), Chris Thompson (45%), Dare Ogunbowale (5%) 

Carry projection: Robinson (12), Thompson (6), Ogunbowale (1)

Target projection: Thompson (5), Robinson (2), Ogunbowale (0.5)

Notes

• Thompson's snap share landed between 46 and 52 percent each of the past four seasons. He's on a new team now, but he's still playing in a Jay Gruden offense
• With Devine Ozigbo (hamstring) placed on injured reserve, the Jags have Robinson, Thompson, Ogunbowale and "Nathan Cottrell" in the backfield for Sunday. It should. be Robinson getting the start and most of the carries.

Green Bay Packers (21.75) @ Minnesota Vikings (24.25)

Green Bay

Snap projection: Aaron Jones (60%), Jamaal Williams (30%), AJ Dillon (10%)

Carry projection: Jones (14), Williams (5), Dillon (3)

Target projection: Jones (4), Williams (2.5), Dillon (0.5)

Notes

• It'll be interesting to see if Dillon is involved, and if so, whether he's taking snaps and touches that went to Jones or Williams last year. There's obvious potential for TD vulturing with a 247-pounder who was drafted in the second round.

Minnesota

Snap projection: Dalvin Cook (67%), Alexander Mattison (25%), Ameer Abdullah (8%)

Carry projection: Cook (17), Mattison (7), Abdullah (0.5)

Target projection: Cook (4.5), Mattison (1), Abdullah (0.5)

Notes

• Mike Boone could also get some work, though he almost exclusively played special teams last season before Cook was injured. Anything for Boone likely would come from Mattison's slice rather than Cook's.
• I'm assuming Cook's contract-related frustration won't impact his workload, but I suppose it's possible team and player could've reached some type of verbal agreement to keep his usage in check. Things have been quiet on that front since mid-August.

Miami Dolphins (18.5) @ New England Patriots (24.5)

Miami

Snap projection: Jordan Howard (50%), Matt Breida (50%)

Carry projection: Howard (13), Breida (8)

Target projection: Breida (4.5), Howard (1.5)

Notes

• Miami also has Patrick Laird, Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Perry and Lynn Bowden on its initial 53-man roster, but Bowden is expected to focus on playing wide receiver, and one of the other guys could be released before Sunday. It is possible Laird gets some third-down snaps or Gaskin takes a few carries.

New England

Snap projection: James White (45%), Sony Michel (35%), Rex Burkhead (20%)

Carry projection: Michel (12), Burkhead (5), White (5) 

Target projection: White (6), Burkhead (2.5), Michel (1.25)  

Notes

• Damien Harris (finger) has been placed on injured reserve, ruling him out for Weeks 1-3 (the IR rules are different this year).
• The Patriots averaged about 25 RBs carries per game each of the past three years. This is a good matchup for rushing volume, but we have to assume some of it will go to Cam Newton, who averaged 6-9 attempts per game every year until 2019 in Carolina. Even the bottom of that range (or a little less) would be a lot more than Tom Brady had the past three years (1.6, 1.4, 1.6 per game).

Philadelphia Eagles (24.5) @ Washington Football Team (18.5)

Philadelphia (updated Sunday morning)

Snap projection: Boston Scott (60%), Corey Clement (40%)

Carry projection: Scott (11), Clement (10)

Target projection: Scott (5), Clement (2.5)

Notes

• Miles Sanders (hamstring) was ruled out Saturday, leaving Scott, Clement and waiver addition Jason Huntley as the running backs for Week 1. Scott and Clement both do solid work on passing downs, but neither is ideal as a runner — the former being small and the latter slow. Carson Wentz could take on more of the burden with his arm now that Sanders is confirmed out.

Washington

Snap projection: Antonio Gibson (40%), J.D. McKissic (30%), Peyton Barber (30%)

Carry projection: Barber (9), Gibson (9), McKissic (3)

Target projection: Gibson (3), McKissic (3), Barber (1)

Notes

• This one is pretty much a mystery, apart from McKissic handling most of the obvious passing situations. Will Gibson see 15 touches right out of the gate, or will he be mixed in behind infamous plodder Peyton Barber? FWIW, coach Ron Rivera said part of his reasoning for releasing Adrian Peterson was a desire to give more playing time to young guys, i.e., Gibson and Bryce Love.
• It isn't clear if Love will be active for Week 1. It sounds like the team is optimistic on his long-term outlook, but he mostly worked with the second- and third-stringers this summer.
• Gibson is priced at $4,000 on DraftKings for Week 1... you know you wanna!

Los Angeles Chargers (23.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (20.5)

Los Angeles (NOT San Diego)

Snap projection: Austin Ekeler (60%), Justin Jackson (20%), Joshua Kelley (20%)

Carry projection: Ekeler (11), Jackson (6), Kelley (6)

Target projection: Ekeler (6), Jackson (0.75), Kelley (0.75)

Notes

• Jackson is dealing with a toe injury, but coach Anthony Lynn said the running back will be ready to play. Even so, I tilted the Week 1 projection a bit more toward Kelley than I'd originally expected.
• Ekeler played 75, 74, 65 and 72 percent of offensive snaps during Melvin Gordon's four-week holdout last September. I'm going a bit more conservative with my Week 1 projection, but 75 percent and 20 touches wouldn't be shocking by any means.

Cincinnati

Snap projection: Joe Mixon (65%), Giovani Bernard (35%)

Carry projection: Mixon (18), Bernard (3.5)

Target projection: Mixon (4), Bernard (3)

Notes

• Mixon and Bernard both played 16 games last year, with the snaps breaking down 60/40, the carries 84/16 and the targets 51/49. Poor Gio played a a whole lotta empty snaps.
• The Bengals also have Trayveon Williams and Samaje Perine on their roster. I don't think either will get touches, but maybe Williams sees a couple? Perine is probably just there for special teams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (23.0) @ New Orleans Saints (26.5)

Tampa Bay

Snap projection: Ronald Jones (50%), LeSean McCoy (30%), Leonard Fournette (20%)

Carry projection: Jones (12), Fournette (7), McCoy (2)

Target projection: Jones (3.25), McCoy (3), Fournette (1.25)

Notes

• The big question involves Fournette and whether he's deemed ready to play. Coach Bruce Arians said Ronald Jones is still the starter, but I'm guessing they find a few carries for LF even if he doesn't know much of the playbook.
• McCoy is expected to work as the passing-down specialist, a role in which Dare Ogunbowale logged 32 percent snap share last season, averaging 0.7 carries and 2.9 targets per game.

New Orleans

Snap projection: Alvin Kamara (65%), Latavius Murray (35%)

Carry projection: Kamara (12), Murray (8)

Target projection: Kamara (6.5), Murray (2)

Notes

• Between the epidural injection and the contract holdout, Kamara has been a major source of anxiety for fantasy managers the past few weeks. But he's back with the team and expected to play, facing a Bucs team that represents the biggest threat to the NFC South crown.
• The Saints also have Ty Montgomery and Dwayne Washington on the roster, electing to keep four RBs for the first time in a few years. I'm not sure if that's related to the Kamara situation, or merely a product of Montgomery looking good all summer. Washington is primarily a special teams player, so don't be surprised if he's active for Week 1 while Montgomery is a healthy scratch. I'll be ever so slightly nervous about Kamara's workload if Montgomery is suiting up. Not nervous enough to bench him in redraft or dynasty, but nervous enough to stay away in DFS.

Arizona Cardinals (20.25) @ San Francisco 49ers (27.25)

Arizona

Snap projection: Kenyan Drake (70%), Chase Edmonds (30%)

Carry projection: Drake (14), Edmonds (5)

Target projection: Drake (5), Edmonds (1.75)

Notes

• Drake handled 80 percent snap share after joining the Cardinals last season, averaging 15.4 carries and 4.4 targets per game.
• Edmonds was active for five games after the Drake trade, playing only 15 snaps on offense but 81 on special teams.

San Francisco

Snap projection: Raheem Mostert (50%), Tevin Coleman (25%), Jerick McKinnon (25%)

Carry projection: Mostert (13), Coleman (8), McKinnon (4)

Target projection: McKinnon (2.75), Mostert (2), Coleman (1.25)

Notes

• Mostert was able to bargain for $2.75 million of incentives added to his contract this summer, following a brief period where there was talk of a trade request.
• Mostert played 74, 59, 53, 54 and 54 percent of snaps over the final five weeks of the 2019 regular season, and then saw 34, 82 and 62 percent in three playoff games. But it was actually Coleman who had more snaps (49 percent) and more carries (22) in the team's first postseason game, before injuring his shoulder the next week. In other words, it was a fluid situation even after Mostert became the lead guy, so he could be one or two bad games away from moving back to a supporting role. There's also "hot-hand" potential each week, which could be interesting for DFS tournaments, i.e., a fast start to a game can result in 20 carries, while a poor start can lead to Coleman taking over.

Dallas Cowboys (27.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (24.5)

Dallas

Snap projection: Ezekiel Elliott (80%), Tony Pollard (20%)

Carry projection: Elliott (18), Pollard (4.5)

Target projection: Elliott (4.75) Pollard (1.25)

Notes

• Pollard looked good last year, but it's hard to imagine the win-now Cowboys taking Elliott off the field on a regular basis.
• The No. 3 RB is Rico Dowdle, an undrafted rookie out of South Carolina.

Los Angeles

Snap projection: Malcolm Brown (50%), Cam Akers (35%), Darrell Henderson (15%)

Carry projection: Brown (10), Akers (8), Henderson (3)

Target projection: Brown (2.25), Akers (2.25), Henderson (1)

Notes

• Sean McVay is optimistic Henderson (hamstring) will play, but everyone else seems unsure. Rather than taking a definitive stand, I chose to give him a small projection.
• Brown lacks speed and agility relative to other NFL backs, but he's been working with McVay for four years now, while Akers is a rookie who didn't even have the benefit of OTAs or preseason. Akers is the preferred fantasy commodity overall, but I'm not sure which guy will see more touches Week 1.

Pittsburgh Steelers (26.5) @ New York Giants (21.0)

Pittsburgh

Snap projection: James Conner (65%), Benny Snell (25%), Jaylen Samuels (10%)

Carry projection: Conner (15), Snell (7), Samuels (1)

Target projection: Conner (4.5), Snell (1), Samuels (1)

Notes

• Conner averaged 13.9 carries and 4.4 targets over his first seven games last season, playing 64 percent of offensive snaps. He struggled against the Patriots, 49ers and Ravens, but he topped 25 PPR points against the Chargers, Dolphins and Bengals.
• For his career, Conner has an 80.9 percent catch rate and 6.8 YPT, with 89 catches and four drops. Samuels is also a good pass catcher, but it isn't clear he'll have a Week 1 role, as even his roster spot appeared to be in danger recently.

New York

Snap projection: Saquon Barkley (90%), Dion Lewis (5%), Wayne Gallman (5%)

Carry projection: Barkley (18), Gallman (1.5), Lewis (1)

Target projection: Barkley (5.75), Lewis (0.5), Gallman (0.25)

Notes

• It's the Saquon show.

Tennessee Titans (20.0) @ Denver Broncos (21.0)

Tennessee

Snap projection: Derrick Henry (75%), Darrynton Evans (25%)

Carry projection: Henry (20), Evans (3)

Target projection: Henry (3), Evans (2)

Notes

• Henry handled 64 percent snap share last season, up from 41 percent the year before. He could take on even more work in 2020, considering the depth chart behind him consists of third-round rookie Evans and special teams ace Senorise Perry. Many had assumed Evans would replace Dion Lewis on passing downs, but it's not 100 percent clear the rookie is ready, especially after an unspecified injury held him out for a sizable portion of training camp. By the way, Henry played 80, 83 and 62 percent of snaps in three playoff games.

Denver

Snap projection: Melvin Gordon (55%), Phillip Lindsay (45%)

Carry projection: Gordon (12), Lindsay (12)

Target projection: Gordon (3.5), Lindsay (2.5)

Notes

• Gordon has the big contract, but camp reports hinted at a pretty even split between him and Lindsay. (The Broncos list them as co-starters on the Week 1 depth chart.) I gave Gordon a few more snaps because Lindsay has struggled so badly with drops and blocking.

RB Projected Workload Chart

Updated Sunday morning