Exploiting the Matchups: Week 8 Start/Sit and Streamers

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Published on October 28, 2022

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Tua Tagovailoa (at DET) — 57% started

Start Over — Dak Prescott (vs. CHI), Tom Brady (vs. BAL), Derek Carr (at NO)

From a fantasy standpoint, Tagovailoa has just one big game this year, but he's been far more consistent in real life — apart from the missed time due to concussions — and should see it pay off this weekend in the form of his second big stat line of the season. He still leads the league in yards per pass attempt (8.6), with 7.46 or more in every game so far and two of his three turnovers coming in the six-TD outing against Baltimore in Week 2. The Lions, as we all know, have been an outright disaster on defense, ranking 29th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, 32nd in NY/A (7.6) and 31st in DVOA against the pass.

Other Good Matchups: Kirk Cousins (vs. ARZ), Daniel Jones (at SEA), Andy Dalton (vs. LV), Sam Ehlinger (vs. WAS), P.J. Walker (at ATL)

Running Backs 👍

Miles Sanders (vs. PIT) — 60% started

Start Over — Najee Harris (at PHI), Michael Carter (vs. NE)

While unlikely to match his 67 and 74 percent snap shares from the games Boston Scott missed in Weeks 4-5,

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Tua Tagovailoa (at DET) — 57% started

Start Over — Dak Prescott (vs. CHI), Tom Brady (vs. BAL), Derek Carr (at NO)

Other Good Matchups: Kirk Cousins (vs. ARZ), Daniel Jones (at SEA), Andy Dalton (vs. LV), Sam Ehlinger (vs. WAS), P.J. Walker (at ATL)

Running Backs 👍

Miles Sanders (vs. PIT) — 60% started

Start Over — Najee Harris (at PHI), Michael Carter (vs. NE)

While unlikely to match his 67 and 74 percent snap shares from the games Boston Scott missed in Weeks 4-5, Sanders still got plenty of work — 19 touches and 62 percent of snaps — when Scott rejoined the rotation for a Week 6 win over Dallas. Sanders has 13 or more carries and 1-3 targets in every game this season, and he should have no trouble finding a similar workload or larger with the Eagles favored by more than a touchdown over a Pittsburgh team that's been average defending the run (14th in DVOA, 21st in fantasy points allowed to RBs, 18th in rushing yards allowed).

D'Onta Foreman (at ATL) — 30% started

Start Over — Brian Robinson (at IND), AJ Dillon (at BUF)

As detailed earlier this week in Backfield Breakdown, Chuba Hubbard actually worked ahead of Foreman for most of the upset win over Tampa, holding a 63/40 lead in snap share and 11-6 lead in looks at the end of the third quarter. But then Hubbard sprained an ankle on his first snap of the final frame, and Foreman ended up taking 11 carries for 48 yards in the fourth quarter to finish with 17 touches and 145 total yards on the day (he had a 60-yard run earlier in the game). With Hubbard now missing back-to-back practices and the Panthers not touchdown-plus underdogs for the first time in weeks, Foreman is well positioned to match or exceed last week's total of 15 carries.

Other Good Matchups: Raheem Mostert (at DET), Tony Pollard (vs. CHI), Kenneth Walker (vs. NYG)

Wide Receivers 👍

DJ Moore (at ATL) — 69% started

Start Over — Courtland Sutton (at JAX), Christian Kirk (vs. DEN)

As much as one big week doesn't erase all that came before it, Moore has a nice opportunity to at least make this a two-week band-aid instead of a one-hit wonder. Coming off last week's season-best 7-69-1 receiving line, DJM takes aim at an Atlanta secondary that's lost its top two cornerbacks to injuries. That's even worse than it sounds, given that those corners (A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward) were supposed to be the strength of an otherwise undermanned defense. Now the Falcons have backup cornerbacks playing behind one of the worst front sevens in the league. The Panthers might actually look decent two weeks in a row; just remember that they're anything but.

Adam Thielen (vs. ARZ) — 49% started

Start Over — Brandin Cooks (vs. TEN), Jakobi Meyers (at NYJ)

There might be something to Thielen producing fewer big plays and TDs as he grows another year older, but in terms of role/usage he's basically where he was last season, averaging 7.2 targets per game at an aDOT of 9.0 (compared to 7.3 and 9.5, respectively, in 2021). He should do well this weekend in a game with the third-largest over/under (49) of the week, facing a Cardinals defense that's middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to WRs but much worse than that for a host of other pass-defense stats, including DVOA (27th) and NY/A (25th). They've also settled on top cornerback Byron Murphy as the nickel slot guy, leaving scrubs like Marco Wilson, Trayvon Mullen and Antonio Hamilton to cover the perimeter. If they do change the plan this week, it likely would be to put Murphy on Justin Jefferson, not Thielen.

Other Good Matchups: Brandin Cooks (vs. TEN), Amon-Ra St. Brown (concussion - vs. MIA)

Tight Ends 👍

Irv Smith (vs. ARZ) — 29% started

Start Over — Greg Dulcich (at JAX), Dawson Knox (vs. GB), Dalton Schultz (vs. CHI)

While yet to reach 50 yards in a game this season, Smith had four or more targets in five straight outings ahead of Minnesota's Week 7 bye, logging 51-to-64 percent of offensive snaps each week. It's not the every-down role some of us envisioned last summer (and again this summer), but the workload is at least enough to put Smith on the low-end TE1 map along with about a dozen other players. This week he'll face an Arizona defense that's struggled against the pass in general and has given up the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Six TEs have reached double-digits points against the Cards this year... seven if we count Taysom Hill.

Other Good Matchups: T.J. Hockenson (vs. MIA), Mike Gesicki (at DET), Noah Fant (vs. NYG)

Sit/Downgrade

Quarterbacks 👎

Dak Prescott (vs. CHI) — 58% started

Start Instead — Tom Brady (vs. BAL), Kirk Cousins (vs. ARZ)

The Chicago defense is far from scary and now takes another step back with Robert Quinn traded to Philadelphia, but there is something to the Bears allowing the ninth fewest fantasy points to QBs, in large part as a product of their style of play. When they do well, they tend to eat up the clock with their run-heavy approach, while the blowout losses tend to correspond with minimal volume for the opposing QB. Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones are the only QBs to reach even 17 fantasy points against the Bears this year, and they need a combined three rushing TDs to do it. The point here isn't that the Bears will kick Prescott's butt; it's that the Cowboys won't need much from Dak to scare the Bears back to their den in Chicago. Tony Pollard, on the other hand, is set to feast, especially if/when Ezekiel Elliott (knee) is confirmed out. Heck, even Rico Dowdle might get in on the fun.

Other Tough Matchups: Aaron Rodgers (at BUF), Trevor Lawrence (vs. DEN), Matthew Stafford (vs. SF), Justin Fields (at DAL), Kenny Pickett (at PHI)

Running Backs 👎

David Montgomery (at DAL) — 56% started

Start Instead — Devin Singletary (vs. GB), Darrell Henderson (vs. SF)

If we don't count Week 3 when he left early with a knee injury, Montgomery's 56 percent snap share Monday against the Patriots was his smallest in any game since Sept. 2020. He nonetheless found the end zone (on his final carry of the night) to seal a 33-14 win for the Bears, but the split between Montgomery and Khalil Herbert was closer than ever before even if we ignore the final two drives. At the time of his touchdown, Montgomery had 15 looks (all carries) to Herbert's 10 (eight carries, two targets), with the latter notably scoring a 25-yard receiving TD.

The Montgomery/Herbert split could stay in the 60/40 range Sunday in Dallas, and this time it'll be an even bigger surprise if the Bears are nursing the type of lead that allows for 45 rush attempts (their MNF total). The Cowboys are favored by 9.5 points, in part because of a dominant front seven that paces the league in preventing RB fantasy production.

Kareem Hunt (vs. CIN) — 34% started

Start Instead — D'Onta Foreman (at ATL), Melvin Gordon (at JAX)

Helped by a soft early schedule, the Browns somehow started the year with five straight games in which Nick Chubb got 17 or more carries and Hunt got 10 or more. That's unsustainable, even for a run-first team with an excellent offensive line, and it's especially difficult to keep up when the defense stinks. Consider it no surprise then that Hunt's volume has come crashing back to Earth, with the former Chief seeing fewer carries (nine) over the past two games than he did in any of his first five individually. And while this matchup does offer potential for negative games script that could help Hunt's playing time a bit, he's yet to see more than four targets in a game this season and averaged only 3.4 per appearance last year. In other words, he's highly unlikely to post a big yardage total and will need a TD to have a decent fantasy week.

Other Tough Matchups: Dameon Pierce (vs. TEN), Darrell Henderson (vs. SF), Najee Harris (at PHI), AJ Dillon (at BUF)

Wide Receivers 👎

Diontae Johnson (at PHI) — 47% started

Start Instead — Brandin Cooks (vs. TEN), Curtis Samuel (at IND)

Johnson is too talented to post efficiency numbers this ugly for an entire season, even in the broken Pittsburgh offense, but a matchup with Eagles corners Darius Slay, James Bradberry and Avonte Maddox isn't likely to be the point where things turn around. You also wonder if the volume starts to dry up at some point, considering the Steelers have found more success (though still limited) when throwing to George Pickens, Chase Claypool and Pat Freiermuth. Either way, Johnson is up against it this week, squaring off with the aforementioned CB trio that's helped Philadelphia limit wide receivers to 5.9 YPT (second best in the NFL behind only Denver).

Jerry Jeudy (at JAX) — 54% started

Start Instead — Brandon Aiyuk (at LAR), Adam Thielen (vs. ARZ)

The Jacksonville defense, while merely average so far, should be good enough to get the job done against a hobbled Russell Wilson or an overmatched Brett Rypien. Denver's implied total of 18.5 points is tied for fourth lowest of the week, with Vegas expecting an ugly game in London between two teams that have looked better on defense than offense of late (to the extreme in Denver's case). Things also look less than rosy for the rest of the Broncos offense, though Melvin Gordon at least projects for a bit more receiving work after Mike Boone landed on IR with an ankle injury.

Other Tough Matchups: Amari Cooper (vs. CIN), Courtland Sutton (at JAX), Michael Gallup (vs. CHI)

Tight Ends 👎

Dalton Schultz (vs. CHI) — 50% started

Start Instead — Hayden Hurst (at CLE), Tyler Higbee (vs. SF)

I'm surprised to see Schultz started in half of Yahoo leagues, coming off a Week 7 outing in which he aggravated his PCL injury for the third time this season. He was able to fight through it and catch five passes for 49 yards in Prescott's return to the lineup, but Schultz was limited to 65 percent of snaps — a far cry from his snap shares in his first three appearances of the season (100%, 90%, 90%). Between the concerns about passing volume and the potential for Schultz to suffer another in-game aggravation, the floor outweighs the ceiling here.

Other Tough Matchups: Evan Engram (vs. DEN), Cole Kmet (at DAL)