Exploiting the Matchups: Week 5 Start/Sit

This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.

In addition to the first scheduled byes (GB, DET) of the season, Week 5 brings along the challenge of two games (BUF-TEN, DEN-NE) that may be impacted by positive COVID-19 tests. As of this writing, the Patriots and Broncos seemingly have a pretty good chance to play, while the Bills and Titans are more likely to be postponed. We'll ignore the Bills and Titans for Week 5 matchup analysis and streaming picks, instead focusing on games that appear better than 50/50 to be played.

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of the best tools for analyzing matchups each week:

• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RW weekly composite rankings
• RW Betting odds
• RW Target share page
• RW Snap count page
• RW Defense vs. Position stats
• RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

Thursday Night Breakdown

QB Tom Brady at CHI — DOWNGRADE ⬆️

49% started on Yahoo, 51% on ESPN

Brady threw for 369 yards and five touchdowns a few days ago, playing in Raymond James Stadium against a Chargers defense that had three key players (S Derwin James, DE Melvin Ingram, CB Chris Harris) on injured reserve. This week, it's the Tampa offense with an injury disadvantage, as O.J. Howard (Achilles) is out for the season, while depth receiver Justin Watson (chest) and passing-down back LeSean McCoy (ankle) are set to join Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Leonard Fournette (ankle) on the inactive list. 

The Watson absence may not sound like a big deal, but it's important this week with Mike Evans (ankle) headed for a game-time decision. And even Scotty Miller (hip/groin) is listed as questionable, though expected to play, so Brady's top targets won't be fully healthy even if he does have them available.

On the other side of the field, Chicago's Week 5 injury list is limited to a pair of backup safeties, with all 22 starters expected to play. The Bears rank fifth in pass-defense DVOA, eighth in net yards allowed (NY/A) per pass attempt (5.9) and second in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (12.4).

Of course, the Chicago offense has been as bad as the defense has been good, ranking 27th in DVOA, 27th in yards per drive (29.8) and 23rd in points per game (21.3). Allen Robinson and his 10.3-target average need to be started in any matchup, but the rest of the Chicago passing game looks like deep-league-only material.

The biggest dilemma involves David Montgomery, who took on career-high 85 percent snap share in his first game after Tarik Cohen suffered a season-ending ACL tear. Monty may be a three-down workhorse with Cohen out of the picture, but it didn't lead to production last week, and he's now looking at a brutal matchup against a Bucs defense that has consistently shut down running backs under DC Todd Bowles.

Last year, the Bucs limited RBs to an NFL-low 56.7 rushing yards per game, giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to the position despite playing in a division with Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey. They're only 12th in points allowed to running backs this year, but that's largely because they surrendered a bunch of catches in matchups with the Saints and Panthers. In terms of rushing, Tampa has limited RBs to 45.5 yards per game and 2.4 YPC, somehow looking even more dominant than last season.

Upgrade

Quarterback

• Teddy Bridgewater at ATL

26% started on Yahoo, 18% on ESPN

Already playing solid football from a real-life perspective, Bridgewater finally broke through on the stat sheet last week, throwing for a pair of touchdowns and adding a third on the ground. He's quietly on pace for 4,588 passing yards and 280 rushing yards, ranking third in completion percentage (73.0) and 10th in YPA (8.1). 

The Falcons, meanwhile, have simply continued to be the Falcons, allowing 29.5 or more fantasy points to opposing QBs each week this season. Sometimes it requires a miraculous comeback, while other times they never put up a fight in the first place. Either way, it always seems to work out well for the other team, and also for fantasy managers who started that team's quarterback.

• Honorable Mentions: Gardner Minshew, JAX at HOU; Kirk Cousins, MIN at SEA; Daniel Jones, NYG at DAL

Running Back

• Antonio Gibson vs. LAR

47% started on Yahoo, 44% on ESPN

While it's never ideal for a running back to be playing as a seven-point underdog, it's somewhat less of a concern when he's coming off three consecutive weeks with 50-plus yards and a touchdown in games his team lost by 14 or 15 points. Gibson's pass-catching work is trending up — eight targets over the past two games — and he's taken four of his team's seven inside-the-five carries since Peyton Barber was demoted after Week 1.

Meanwhile, the Rams defense has continued a trend from recent seasons, doing solid work against the pass while remaining vulnerable to the run. The Rams enter Week 5 ranked 28th in rush-defense DVOA, 14th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 26th in YPC allowed to RBs (4.8).

• Jerick McKinnon vs. MIA

47% started on Yahoo, 51% on ESPN

McKinnon's recent workloads make him an auto-start if Raheem Mostert (knee) misses another game, and we should be able to squeeze out at least one more solid week even if Mostert returns to the lineup. Looking back to the season opener when everyone in the San Francisco backfield was healthy, McKinnon and Tevin Coleman (knee) combined for seven carries, seven targets and 40 percent snap share. The non-Mostert portion could be even larger in Raheem's first game back from an injury, especially against a Miami defense in the bottom 10 for both run-defense DVOA (31st) and fantasy points allowed to RBs (26th).

• Honorable Mentions: David Johnson, HOU vs. JAX; Devonta Freeman, NYG at DAL

Wide Receiver

• Will Fuller vs. JAX

76% started on Yahoo, 62% on ESPN

Don't be fooled by the DvP stats that show Jacksonville allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. That's partially a product of matchups (IND, TEN, MIA, CIN) and partially a matter of touchdown luck (3 allowed to WRs, 3 to TEs, 6 to RBs). In terms of pass-defense efficiency, the Jags are 32nd in DVOA and 31st in NY/A (8.0). As if that weren't bad enough, they might have to start Jason Mendoza at cornerback, after CJ Henderson (shoulder) and D.J. Hayden (IR - hamstring) suffered injuries last week.

Fuller put up a goose egg in Week 2 while dealing with a hamstring injury that impacted both his effectiveness and his snap count, but he's otherwise averaging 6.0 catches for 91.3 yards and 0.67 TDs on 7.3 targets, asserting himself as the No. 1 receiver in Houston. With volume, talent and matchup all aligning, he should put up another big stat line.

• Justin Jefferson at SEA

53% started on Yahoo, 44% on ESPN

Coming off back-to-back 100-yard games in which he ran routes on at least 85 percent of Kirk Cousins' dropbacks, Jefferson is locked as the Vikings' No. 2 receiver as they prepare to face the Seattle shootout machine. The Seahawks have allowed 500 more yards to wide receivers than any other team, including 313.3 per game even if we don't count the wild contest against Dallas. (The number goes up to 336.3 per game if the Cowboys matchup is included.) 

The 'Hawks were struggling against the pass even when their defense was healthy, and they've already ruled out star safety Jamal Adams (groin) for Week 5. Slot corner Marquise Blair (knee) is already done for the season, and RCB Quinton Dunbar (knee) is in danger of missing a third straight game. Jefferson and Adam Thielen both should be ready to feast.

• Honorable Mentions: Robby Anderson, CAR at ATL; Darius Slayton & Golden Tate, NYG at DAL; Sammy Watkins, KC vs. LVR; Brandon Aiyuk SF vs. MIA

Tight End

• Evan Engram at DAL

60% started on Yahoo, 65% on ESPN

Efficiency may be a problem all year in the Giants offense, but we shouldn't ignore the impact of a brutal schedule to start the season. After facing the Steelers, Bears, 49ers and Rams, a matchup with the pathetic Dallas defense represents a complete 180. The Cowboys are 25th in pass-defense DVOA and 26th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, with Hayden Hurst, Greg Olsen and Austin Hooper all achieving season highs for yardage when they faced Dallas.

While he doesn't have the production to match, Engram has seen elite usage through the first quarter of the season, ranking third among tight ends in target share (20.7), fourth in snap share (90.1 percent) and second in routes run (159, per PFF). Engram is one of five tight ends — Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Jonnu Smith and Noah Fant being the others — with five or more targets in each of his team's games.

• Honorable Mentions: Hunter Henry, LAC at NO; Eric Ebron, PIT vs. PHI

Kicker

• Ka'imi Fairbairn vs. JAX

34% started on Yahoo, 22% on ESPN

Houston has the fifth-largest implied total (30) of Week 5, hosting an already struggling Jacksonville team that lost five starters to injuries Sunday against the Bengals. The Texans have issues of their own — as evidenced by the 0-4 record and the coaching change — but they nonetheless figure to have plenty of scoring opportunities this week.

• Honorable Mentions: Jason Myers, SEA vs. MIN; Joey Slye, CAR at ATL

Downgrades

Quarterback

• QB Joe Burrow at BAL

24% started on Yahoo, 24% on ESPN

Burrow has completed 65.5 percent of his passes while scoring 16 or more fantasy points each week, but he hasn't quite reached the level where you'd be comfortable starting him on the road against a good defense. His rushing production the past two weeks (five carries for 10 yards) was a major disappointment, and he hasn't had any luck throwing deep, somehow going 1-for-22 on passes 20 or more yards downfield (per PFF).

The Ravens got their wings clipped by Patrick Mahomes in Week 3, but they've otherwise held opposing QBs (Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Dwayne Haskins) to three total touchdowns. Baltimore is 14th in pass-defense DVOA and 11th in NY/A allowed (6.3), while Cincinnati is 25th in pass-offense DVOA and 28th in NY/A (5.3). No wonder the Bengals are 13-point underdogs with a measly implied total of 19.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Tom Brady, TB at CHI; Carson Wentz, PHI at PIT; Derek Carr, LVR at KC

Running Back

• Melvin Gordon at NE

75% started on Yahoo, 71% on ESPN

After nearly making it back on the field last week, Phillip Lindsay (foot) upgraded to full practice participation this Wednesday. We can't exactly promise he'll take on his same role from Week 1, but if it were to happen, Gordon would be in serious trouble. Lindsay and Gordon had the same number of touches (eight) before halftime in the season opener, with the former playing 58 percent of snaps to the latter's 52 percent. Lindsay missed the second half due to a toe injury and then sat out the past three weeks, allowing Gordon to average 16.3 carries and 3.8 targets per game at the quarter point of the season.

Gordon figures to land closer to 12-to-15 touches per game with Lindsay in the lineup, i.e., not enough work to be a trustworthy fantasy starter in a road matchup against a good defense. The Patriots are only 19th in run-defense DVOA and 18th in YPC allowed to running backs (4.4), but they've nonetheless managed to limit RBs to the seventh-fewest fantasy points, keeping Josh Jacobs and Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of the end zone in back-to-back weeks.

• Myles Gaskin at SF

35% started on Yahoo, 40% on ESPN

Averaging 12 carries and five targets on 67 percent snap share, Gaskin still hasn't produced a big stat line, in part because he has Jordan Howard vulturing lay-up touchdowns. There's a solid buy-low argument to be made, but it's probably better to wait another week or two, considering the 49ers are eighth in run-defense DVOA, first in fantasy points allowed to running backs and fourth in YPC allowed to RBs (3.0). The next running back to put up 80 total yards against San Francisco will be the first to do it this year.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Joshua Kelley & Justin Jackson, LAC at NO; James White, NE vs. DEN

Wide Receiver

• Tyler Boyd at BAL

62% started on Yahoo, 56% on ESPN

A lot of you won't have the luxury of benching a player of this caliber, but for those in shallower leagues or with stacked WR groups, this is the week to consider doing it. Most of the issues we discussed for Burrow can be applied to Boyd, who faces the added challenge of matching up with $97.5-million man Marlon Humphrey in the slot. Humphrey gave Boyd a hard time last year, helping to limit the veteran receiver to nine catches for 72 yards on 15 targets in two games against the Ravens.

Humphrey isn't strictly a slot corner, but he's handling that role in nickel packages for a second straight year after Tavon Young (knee) suffered another season-ending injury. It's a tough break for Boyd, as Humphrey has allowed only 1.18 yards per cover snap and 5.0 yards per target in slot coverage this season, after giving up 1.04 YPCS and 5.9 YPT in the same role last year (per PFF).

• Jarvis Landry vs. IND

36% started on Yahoo, 32% on ESPN

The Colts are second in pass-defense DVOA and ninth in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, with perimeter cover man Xavier Rhodes enjoying a bounce-back season and slot corner Kenny Moore remaining one of the league's best at his craft. Meanwhile, Landry has been consistent in a bad way, finishing with 3-to-6 targets and 36-to-61 receiving yards each week. He's run 51 percent of his routes from the slot, where Moore has allowed only 0.71 yards per cover snap — identical to his stingy mark from 2019 (per PFF).

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Jerry Jeudy, DEN at NE; Anthony Miller, CHI vs. TB

Tight End

• Mike Gesicki at SF

35% started on Yahoo, 32% on ESPN

Gesicki seems to have a knack for putting up big stat lines when nobody expects it, only to disappear once we trust him again. Maybe he'll come through with a 'boom' game against a good defense after back-to-back down weeks, but the more likely scenario is the one where his slump stretches out to three games. 

After limiting Zach Ertz to nine yards last week, the 49ers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, with 24 targets producing a pathetic 14-105-0 receiving line. It doesn't help that Gesicki isn't quite a full-time player, sitting on 60 percent snap share and 0.71 routes per QB dropback. He ranks 11th among tight ends in routes run (109) and is tied for 13th in targets per game (5.5).

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Jimmy Graham, CHI vs. TB; Mo Alie-Cox, IND at CLE

Kicker

• Jake Elliott at PIT

37% started on Yahoo, 35% on ESPN

Elliott has provided decent enough numbers so far, but this week he's looking at a tough scoring environment, and also a tough kicking environment. The Steelers are sitting top-five in points allowed and defensive DVOA for a second straight year, and Heinz Field is a notoriously difficult stadium for converting long field goals.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Randy Bullock, CIN at BAL; Daniel Carlson, LVR at KC

Week 5 Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (30-69 percent rostered)

QB Teddy Bridgewater at ATL

QB Gardner Minshew at HOU

RB Devonta Freeman at DAL

RB Damien Harris vs. DEN

RB Malcolm Brown at WAS

RB Justin Jackson at NO

WR Scotty Miller at CHI 

WR Brandon Aiyuk vs. MIA

WR Tee Higgins at BAL

WR Hunter Renfrow at KC

WR Golden Tate at DAL

WR Russell Gage vs. CAR

TE Dalton Schultz vs. NYG

TE Eric Ebron vs. PHI

TE Rob Gronkowski at CHI

TE Austin Hooper vs. IND

K Ka'imi Fairbairn vs. JAX

K Joey Slye at ATL

D/ST Arizona Cardinals at NYJ

D/ST Dallas Cowboys vs. NYG

For Medium-Depth Leagues (10-29 percent rostered)

QB Kirk Cousins at SEA

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick at SF

RB Duke Johnson vs. JAX

RB Brian Hill vs. CAR

RB Darrel Williams vs. LVR

WR Greg Ward at PIT

WR Keelan Cole at HOU

WR Curtis Samuel at ATL

TE Greg Olsen vs. MIN

TE Logan Thomas vs. LAR

K Chris Boswell vs. PHI

K Michael Badgley at NO

D/ST Houston Texans vs. JAX

D/ST Cleveland Brown vs. IND

For Deep Leagues (under 10 percent rostered)

QB Joe Flacco vs. ARZ

QB Kyle Allen vs. LAR

RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn at CHI

RB Gus Edwards vs. CIN

RB J.D. McKissic vs. LAR

WR Zach Pascal at CLE

WR James Washington vs. PHI

WR Damiere Byrd vs. DEN

TE Tyler Eifert at HOU

TE Drew Sample at BAL

TE Ian Thomas at ATL

TE Cameron Brate at CHI

K Samuel Sloman at WAS

K Nick Folk vs. DEN

D/ST Washington Football Team vs. LAR

Crowd-sourced Lineup Decision

Each week I'll post a twitter poll with one of the toughest start/sit decisions from my own lineups. The process will be truly democratic, which means I'm required to start the player who gets the most votes, unless there's relevant injury/virus news late in the week.

And please, feel free to drop you start/sit questions in the comments below, or you can ask me on twitter - @JerryDonabedian.