Exploiting the Matchups: Week 4 Start/Sit

This was a big week for waivers. It felt like there were numerous season-long difference makers on the market, highlighted (in my opinion) by the new king of Cleveland.

Baker Mayfield freed the Bud Light, and he sparked the imaginations of so many that could not dare to dream of a Browns football team that can play with anyone. And that might well be the case with Mayfield pulling the quick trigger as a razor-sharp, confidence-sweating playmaker.

All Browns skill players get a huge boost going forward, and to a lesser extent, so do a few Bills and Cardinals weapons, as it looks like it will be the season of the rookie quarterback. Like Mayfield – but for different reasons – Josh Allen is going to be special. It's too soon to invest in Bills receiving weapons, but the backfield is 100 percent relevant again (spoiler alert) whether LeSean McCoy heals up or Chris Ivory is filling the void.

Finally, in the desert, Josh Rosen could help bring back at least shades of what David Johnson was two years ago as a fantasy MVP, while also boosting the stocks of Christian Kirk and Ricky Seals-Jones in deeper leagues.

Mayfield and Allen are so good, I actually had to forgo my plans to blow off this week's introduction by rattling off some excuse about needing to get done early and get some sleep before a long drive out to South Bend, Ind., to watch my Irish stuff future Giovani Bernard (a.k.a. Stanford RB Bryce Love). In all sincerity, Mayfield and Allen flashed such high ceilings as both real-life and fantasy quarterbacks that there's nothing I'm looking forward to watching in Week 4 more than their encore performances.

For my money, Mayfield throttles the Raiders, while Allen and a swarming Bills defense give my Packers a run for their money before a few late-game errors turn the tide for the home team. (At least that's what I'm hoping for with the Allen outcome.) I won't be surprised if Green Bay's offense collapses in the end with Rodgers unable to get rid of the ball quickly enough.

Okay, okay. I digress. I was supposed to scrap the intro and here I am rambling late at night instead of sleeping. Enjoy another week of passing fireworks and young guns.

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier -- or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Baker Mayfield, CLE at OAK

Oh it is ON. Vegas odds for Mayfield to win Offensive Rookie of the Year likely wouldn't pay much after his scintillating debut left Cleveland swimming in Bud Light. With Vegas' future franchise on tap and a full week of practice with the starters, Mayfield figures to stay red-hot. The Raiders were masquerading as a quality pass defense through two weeks (second-lowest completion percent allowed at 54.4 percent and only two TD). After Ryan Tannehill eviscerated the Raiders' secondary by completing 73.9 percent of his passes for 289 yards and three scores at a cozy 12.6 YPA, it feels safe to project Mayfield for a big day, given that he pitched it for 201 yards on a better Jets defense in essentially five possessions.

Joe Flacco, BAL at PIT

Flacco has started off the year strong as he appears locked-in and determined to keep Lamar Jackson from taking his job. He's averaged 296.3 yards per game with at least 236 in each and six total TD. Sure, the Steelers have faced the league's hottest two gunslingers the past couple weeks with a myriad of weapons at their disposal, but their biggest weakness is still their secondary and giving up 737 yards and nine touchdowns in two games can't be ignored. With a trio of reliable wideouts in Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead, and a field-stretching tight end in Mark Andrews, Flacco is poised for a vintage shootout with Ben Roethlisberger.

Josh Allen, BUF at GB

It took Allen just 22 pass attempts on the Vikings' vaunted defense to generate five scoring drives and produce three touchdowns by himself. His best superhero impression highlighted his unique athleticism and his tremendous potential to be a fantasy goldmine. That he tallied terrific fantasy numbers despite Buffalo holding at least a 17-point lead from the first quarter on is also encouraging. With such a gifted arm and the likelihood for more negative than positive game scripts, including a showdown with Aaron Rodgers this weekend, Allen is going to keep accumulating stats. With a Packers defense that lacks pass rushers (only six sacks) and is inexperienced and injured in the secondary (Josh Jones and Kevin King missed Week 3), Allen sets up nicely for an encore.

Ryan Tannehill, MIA at NE

In the last two weeks -- in games they were losing from start to finish -- the Patriots allowed a generous 638 yards and six scores through the air to Blake Bortles and Matthew Stafford. In the process, their anemic pass rush logged one measly sack. Meanwhile, Tannehill has been consistent, tossing at least two scores in every game and spreading the ball around to a diverse set of weapons that now includes the undeniably gifted DeVante Parker. Once Parker rounds into form after missing the first two weeks, Tannehill's weekly ceiling will only go up.

Case Keenum, DEN vs. KC

This is the obligatory upgrade of any quarterback playing the Chiefs. With the league's highest-scoring offense having opened at least a three-score lead in every contest, and with an injured and largely ineffective secondary, Kansas City is a paradise for garbage-time stats. Keenum has stunk for a couple of games after topping 300 yards with three scores in Week 1, but he has the weapons to get back on track in an ideal home divisional showdown.

RB

Chris Carson, SEA at AZ

You never know when Pete Carroll is going to get cute, but clearly it takes a lot for Carson to get "gassed" since the Seahawks fed him an eye-popping 34 touches in a comfortable win over Dallas. It's hard not to trust him to own the backfield for at least one more week after he powered the Seattle offense with 124 hard-earned scrimmage yards and a score. With a Cardinals team rocking a pathetic 6.7 points per game average on tap, it's hard not to see Carson producing again as Seattle controls possession versus a defense that's seen the most rushing attempts against them and allowed the most rushing scores.

Aaron Jones, GB vs. BUF

It's not like it would be the first time Mike McCarthy committed a crime against smart coaching, but even he can't be blind to the chasm-like gap in running talent between Jones and committee backs Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery. Jones, after barely playing in the preseason due to a hamstring injury and then sitting for his two-game suspension, stepped onto the field and exploded for runs of eight, 10 and 17 yards within his first five carries. His vision, burst and balance give him the chance to do something special on any given play. With the way Aaron Rodgers is impaired right now, the Packers desperately need to establish a strong ground game, and Jones is the key. Versus a Bills defense that's surrendered a league-high six touchdowns to running backs, Jones should earn a fairly heavy dose to set the pace for Green Bay early in an attempt to limit Rodgers' exposure to hits.

Chris Ivory OR LeSean McCoy, BUF at GB

The Ivory upgrade comes with the caveat that he is only flex worthy if McCoy remains sidelined by a rib injury. With McCoy getting hurt a couple weeks ago versus the Chargers, Ivory vultured a short touchdown while adding a 30-yard catch. Starting in place of McCoy against the Vikings, he utilized a healthy 23 touches to churn out 126 scrimmage yards despite roughly half his carries coming in a clock-killing effort when Minnesota was keying on the run. The Packers just lost Muhammad Wilkerson for the season to a broken leg, have allowed 4.7 YPC and have bled at least 90 scrimmage yards to every lead rusher they've faced, so should Ivory get the start again, he's well-positioned to keep the good times rolling. For McCoy, his injury is likely one of pain management, so if he does suit up as he has stated he intends to, the same Green Bay defensive struggles will set him up for his first big game of 2018.

Royce Freeman, DEN vs. KC

Coaches typically don't respond well to players who hurt entire game plans due to boneheaded actions. That could mean surprise rookie weapon Phillip Lindsay spends a week in Vance Joseph's doghouse after the Broncos' leading rusher got himself ejected in the second quarter with Denver down only three points. Now, Lindsay's explosive speed will be needed, so he'll remain involved, but after Freeman churned out a hard-earned 53 yards and a score against the Ravens, it's possible he'll take a bigger chunk of the rushing workload against a Chiefs defense that has allowed at least 100 scrimmage yards to three different tailbacks and at least 65 yards and a score to similar between-the-tackles backs Alfred Morris and James Conner.

WR

Mike Williams, LAC vs. SF

The Rams have allowed only two receiving touchdowns on the season – tied for fewest in the league – and both went to Williams last week in a break out performance. A long strider with a huge catch radius and the bulk to post up in the red zone, Williams is emerging as both the best deep-ball and red-zone target for Philip Rivers. He now has at least 80 yards or a score in all three contests, with three TD over the last two. Facing a 49ers defense tied for the second most passing scores allowed, including six strikes within the red zone, Williams looks like a good bet to keep the touchdowns coming.

Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. NO

So, a team with a superstar No. 1 wideout and a smooth route-running, elusive after-the-catch Robin to the No. 1's Batman just ripped the Saints for 146 yards and three touchdowns. By the way, that's the second time in three weeks a No. 2 has produced a touchdown of at least 47 yards against them. All told, the Robins to face New Orleans have piled up a disgusting 369 yards and six touchdowns on the Saints, with Calvin Ridley the latest to own them. Shepard is coming off 80 yards and a score himself, and with Evan Engram (knee) sidelined and an elite offense on the other side of the field to create a sense of urgency for Big Blue's offense, a nice encore from the third-year wideout could be on the way.

Tyler Boyd, CIN at ATL

A.J. Green is combating a pelvis injury, and Boyd has already been getting quality targets – both in volume and opportunity – the past two weeks. He's been peppered with 16 targets in that span and snagged 12 for 223 yards and score in each contest. As hot as the Falcons offense is right now after turning in consecutive weeks of 30-plus points, expect Boyd to continue the trend of wide receivers burning them. They've allowed a ridiculous seven different wideouts to post at least 77 yards or a score against them in two shootout affairs.

John Brown, BAL at PIT

Just because it's obvious does not make it any less right. The Steelers have allowed a 100-yard receiver in every game this season and Brown has established himself as the clear downfield target for Joe Flacco. The burner will introduce himself to the Ravens vs. Steelers rivalry in a big way after warming up with at least 86 yards or a score in his first three games in purple and black.

Antonio Callaway, CLE at OAK

Just wait until they get the chemistry going that Callaway and Baker Mayfield glimpsed in the preseason. Despite only 20 yards on four catches, Callaway's performance against the Jets was highly encouraging. His 10 targets were a healthy 27.8 percent share among Browns pass catchers, and had Tyrod Taylor not underthrown him a couple times, he could have registered some big plays as he consistently got behind the Jets' defense. The Raiders' secondary is a mix of undisciplined and slow, as they were torched for a catch of at least 34 yards by four different Dolphins receivers last week, including three that went for touchdowns. Translation: Callaway could be a week-winner with his home-run ability.

TE

Trey Burton, CHI vs. TB

After three weeks of slow improvement, this could be the coming-out party for Burton in the Bears offense. Anthony Miller's shoulder injury might hobble or deactivate him, which could leave Burton to build on the season-high 55 yards he posted last week with more work from the slot. After an already banged-up Buccaneers secondary saw safety Chris Conte stiff-armed to injured reserve, this defense is ripe to be exploited by tight ends. In the last two weeks, Zach Ertz and Vance McDonald rocked them for a combined 15 grabs, 206 yards and a score. If the aerial fireworks of Ryan Fitzpatrick force Mitchell Trubisky to attempt more than 35 throws for the first time this season, Burton could continue the trend of tight end carnage against the Bucs.

Ben Watson, NO at NYG

The Giants have not faced a tight end yet in 2018 that has recorded a single season of more than 450 yards (the tops being Ryan Griffin's 442-yard career high), so it's no surprise they've allowed the third fewest catches to the position. Just last week, however, three different tight ends – including two rookies and the aforementioned Griffin – had a grab of at least 18 yards against them as the trio combined for five catches and 125 yards. If the Big Blue defense can struggle to keep them in check, they figure to have an equally tough time sticking with Watson while receptions leader Michael Thomas and the always electric Alvin Kamara draw so much of their attention.

DOWNGRADE

Andrew Luck, IND vs. HOU

Let's face it, we're in 2018 and you can't touch receivers or quarterbacks without a penalty. With the Rams' top two cornerbacks injured, there's only one legitimately elite pass defense and that's Jacksonville. In other words, there's little reason to bet against any good quarterback, any week. Working against Luck this Sunday – if we're splitting hairs: He's simply lacking weapons, his offensive line is missing its left tackle, and there might be questions over his arm strength. That was a big issue for him against the ferocious front four of the Eagles, and it could be the case again facing J.J. Watt and Co. after witnessing Watt shake off the post-injury rust last week. Without the threat of a ground game, which benefited a nice Eli Manning performance against this defense last week, Luck could struggle.

Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. BUF

Receiver drops killed Rodgers last week, but it's hard to ignore the severe lack of mobility in the pocket that's limiting the sky-high ceiling we're used to with him. In a season in which the passing yards are flowing like Bud Light was last week in Cleveland, it's possible to stream better options than Rodgers EVERY week. This is no exception against a Bills defense that hammered the Vikings last week. Buffalo got home with blitzes and generally tormented a weak Vikings offensive line while covering well on the back end with a terrific secondary performance. In other words, expect numerous coverage sacks and a low YPA for Rodgers. Unless he's flawless in the red zone, the floor and ceiling could be awfully depressed this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB at CHI

It is entirely within Khalil Mack's power to single-handedly extinguish the "FitzMagic" that has made Tampa Bay's offense historically explosive. At a minimum, a fourth straight 400-yard game is almost certainly not going to happen. And while the Bears did get blitzed themselves for a single magical half of Aaron Rodgers nirvana in Week 1, they've otherwise been stingy. And they're only getting better. If Fitzpatrick is hurried into multiple interceptions again by the league's best pass rush, he may not recover with a massive yardage output this time.

RB

David Johnson, ARI vs. SEA

Johnson's long run on the season is 11 yards, and he still has yet to log more than 13 carries or 16 total touches in a game. The quarterback switch to Josh Rosen can't hurt things (in theory), but it also sure as heck doesn't cement Johnson as a top-20 running back for fantasy purposes. The Seahawks are among the worst run defenses, but that didn't prevent them from limiting Jordan Howard to 35 rushing yards on 14 carries (2.5 YPC). And sure, Ezekiel Elliott still gouged them last week despite a less-than-threatening Cowboys pass attack, but don't forget the threat of Dak Prescott's legs also helped to freeze defenders and let Elliott loose. There's really nothing working in Johnson's favor outside of the possibility that offensive coordinator Mike McCoy will suddenly wake up and feed him his deserved dose of 20-to-25 touches. Until that starts happening consistently, he's a low-floor player.

Sony Michel, NE vs. MIA

Having taken 24 of the 39 running back carries since joining the lineup in Week 2, it's clear Michel is going to be the early-down leader of New England's backfield, and that distinction only figures to become more evident following Rex Burkhead's placement on IR (neck). Despite Michel's first-round draft status, however, it's best to play a wait-and-see game with him until he proves capable of doing much with those opportunities. So far, he's generated just 90 scrimmage yards on 26 touches while averaging a weak 3.5 YPC. That was excusable versus the Jaguars, but even the last-placed Lions run defense shut him down with ease. Things don't figure to get better versus a Dolphins defense that's tied for the second-lowest YPC allowed (3.3) and have just held Marshawn Lynch, Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell to a combined 105 yards on 36 carries.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. PHI

This is a friendly reminder that this won't be the week Henry finally busts loose and rumbles for a big day on the ground. Sure, he's been handed a healthy 18 carries in consecutive weeks – and that's reason to buy an eventual breakout game – but he's been fortunate with positive game scripts and has still failed to produce better than 3.2 YPC in a contest, while generating a measly one run of more than 10 yards. The Eagles are the top-ranked run defense for a reason: The strength of their defense is a beastly defensive line led by All-Pro Fletcher Cox.

WR

Robert Woods, LAR vs. MIN

After an ugly beating at the hands of the Bills, the Vikings are no doubt eager to get back on the field and happy to have a short week to redeem themselves against a Los Angeles offense that's third in both yards and points per game. With a secondary littered with former first round draft picks in Xavier Rhodes, Harrison Smith, Trae Waynes and 2018 addition Mike Hughes, the Vikings are one of the few defenses uniquely equipped to slow down Woods and the Rams' red-hot aerial attack. For a comparable example of how Minnesota defends the pass, look no further than their Week 2 visit to Lambeau. It took Davante Adams 12 targets and some nifty jukes inside the red zone to generate 64 yards and a touchdown. If that represents the ceiling (it might) and the 37 yards Woods posted in Week 1 is the approximate floor, it could be a rough week for the talented veteran.

DeSean Jackson, TB at CHI

The Steelers may have only sacked Ryan Fitzpatrick three times, but they registered 13 additional hits on him and generally rushed him in the pocket from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. While that's not the sole reason for Jackson's modest 37-yard night, it certainly didn't help the big-play threat get involved with downfield shots. Jackson's five targets were fourth on the team, and with defenses intent on hurrying Fitzpatrick and limiting big plays from the No. 1 passing offense, the veteran's opportunities could remain limited. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Tampa's talented tight ends are simply better short-field options. When a ferocious Bears pass rush that leads the league with 14 sacks "welcomes" Fitzpatrick to Soldier Field, another quiet outing could be the result for Jackson.

Tyler Lockett, SEA at ARI

The Cardinals are the only defense that has yet to allow a touchdown to a wide receiver. Lockett, who's performed as a top-20 wideout through three weeks has done so because he's consistently found the end zone, scoring in each week while averaging a modest 65.3 yards per game. As Seattle's most dangerous weapon in the passing game, expect Lockett to see his fair share of Patrick Peterson attention. If that does occur, expect him to be among the many receivers prevented from crossing the goal line by Arizona.

TE

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. CIN
Don't be fooled by the numbers the Bengals have allowed to tight ends. No single tight end has produced more than 60 yards on them, and that was Andrew Luck favorite Jack Doyle, who needed 10 targets to get there and still ruined his fantasy day with a fumble. It shouldn't be lost that the tight ends to produce anything against them were catching passes from Luck and Joe Flacco, two quarterbacks that have historically leaned on the position. Matt Ryan has not done that since Tony Gonzalez was in town. Hooper had a nice day a couple of weeks ago, but that was only the second time since the start of 2017 that he topped 50 yards in a game.