DraftKings NFL: Week 11 DFS Breakdown

DraftKings NFL: Week 11 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 11 slate includes 11 games and, similar to last week, features the 49ers in a great spot. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey will be the chalk at their respective positions and whether to eat it will be among the most important decisions. If you want to, there are plenty of ways to get different. If not, that's essentially all the leverage you'll need. 

On the other hand, decisions for cash games are relatively straightforward until you get to WR, where the slate is likely to be won or lost. There are similar options across price ranges and choosing correctly will be key. I highlighted some of the top options and included some ideas for tournaments as well. Good Luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Over/UnderRoad TeamRoad 
Implied Total
Home TeamHome 
Implied Total
43.5Los Angeles Rams24New England Patriots19.5
44Las Vegas Raiders18.25Miami Dolphins25.75
40.5Green Bay Packers23.5Chicago Bears17
47Jacksonville Jaguars17Detroit Lions30
44.5Cleveland Browns21.75New Orleans Saints22.75
39.5Minnesota Vikings22.75Tennessee Titans16.75
48.5Baltimore Ravens25.75Pittsburgh Steelers22.75
43.5Indianapolis Colts19.75New York Jets23.75
48Seattle Seahawks20.75San Francisco 49ers27.25
44Atlanta Falcons20.75Denver Broncos23.25
46Kansas City Chiefs22Buffalo Bills24

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

Achane logged 70 percent of the snaps last week while Raheem Mostert played 15 percent and Jaylen Wright 17 percent. Not that it's overly important, but it's encouraging to see. The Dolphins have a soft matchup at home against the Raiders and Achane continues to be as good a dual-threat as there is. He's caught at least five passes in three consecutive games with a total of 19 in that span. He also will be the most popular RB priced below $8K, and that's reason enough to roster him in cash games.

Meyers averages more than nine targets per game in his last five and you can expect that number to be sticky with Davante Adams out of the way. He averages more than six catches per game in that span, and I see no reason why that shouldn't continue Sunday. The Raiders are likely to be trailing and thus passing. I wouldn't worry too much about Jalen Ramsey given that Meyers spends about half his time in the slot. There is plenty of value in this range, however. I could've just as easily highlighted Courtland Sutton ($5,900), DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700), Jauan Jennings ($5,300) or Cedric Tillman ($5,300). All are decent options and will carry significant rostership. Take your pick. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Brock Purdy vs. SEA ($6,600)

QB Geno Smith at SF ($5,700)

QB Jameis Winston at NO ($5,500)

RB Christian McCaffrey vs. SEA ($8,300)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. CLE ($8,200)

RB De'Von Achane vs. LV ($7,200)

WR Puka Nacua at NE ($7,300)

WR Davante Adams vs. IND ($7,200)

WR Deebo Samuel vs. SEA ($6,800)

WR Khalil Shakir vs. KC ($6,300)

WR Courtland Sutton vs. ATL ($5,900)

WR DeAndre Hopkins at BUF ($5,700)

WR Jakobi Meyers at LAR ($5,600)

WR Cedric Tillman at NO ($5,300)

WR Jauan Jennings vs. SEA ($5,300)

WR Elijah Moore at NO ($4,300)

WR Kayshon Boutte vs. LAR ($3,500)

TE Travis Kelce at BUF ($6,300)

TE Hunter Henry vs. LA ($3,900)

TE Dawson Knox vs. KC ($3,500)

TE Davis Allen at NE ($2,500)

D/ST Green Bay Packers at CHI ($3,500)

D/ST Miami Dolphins vs. LV ($3,000)

D/ST New York Jets vs. IND ($2,800)

D/ST Tennessee Titans vs. MIN ($2,300)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Seattle Seahawks (20.75) at San Francisco 49ers (27.75)

SEAHAWKS

When these two teams met in Week 6, Seattle fell behind early and had to chase the game. It led to 52 pass attempts from Geno Smith ($5,700), which he turned into 312 yards. A similar script is even likelier in this spot with San Francisco at home and Christian McCaffrey back healthy. So while I'm not necessarily going out of my way to roster Seahawks, they have a few appealing options that would make sense in game stacks. Smith projects as one of the better values at QB and you could pair him with a pass-catcher and a couple of 49ers and be on your way. DK Metcalf ($6,500) is healthy again and his salary has dropped after missing the last two games with a knee sprain. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,500) picked up the slack in a big way last time out when he exploded for seven catches, 180 yards and two touchdowns. The nice thing about the Seattle WRs is that they won't be popular at all. Fourth-round rookie AJ Barner ($3,100) spelled the injured Noah Fant ($3,700) in Week 9 and had four catches on seven targets. If Fant is out again, Barner would be a viable punt as one of the better cheap values at TE. Kenneth Walker ($7,000) would make sense instead of Smith. He'd offer leverage when paired with Purdy and/or McCaffrey. 

49ers

This slate will be similar to the last one in that San Francisco will be popular. Just like last week they have a favorable matchup and a 28-point total. It's a great spot as the 49ers are getting healthy and Seattle's defense hasn't stopped anyone. Brock Purdy ($6,600) was the chalk last week and  responded with 353 yards and two scores for almost 27 fantasy points, his highest output of the season. Expect him to be the most popular QB again, especially since he just came through. Christian McCaffrey ($8,300) played without limitations in his first action of the season. He touched the ball 19 times, including six catches for 107 yards. He wasn't overly popular last week, but that will change in a big way this week. He projects as the best value on the board plus people are confident in his health and role now. Deciding which pass-catcher to pair Purdy with is tough as they all have merit. Deebo Samuel ($6,800) has eight touches in back-to-back weeks. You'd like to see more volume, but he's always capable of scoring two long touchdowns. Jauan Jennings ($5,300) caught seven of 11 targets last week for 93 yards. If you knew he'd lead them in targets again, he'd be a no-brainer. Ricky Pearsall ($4,900) caught four of six targets for 46 yards and a score while George Kittle ($6,000) caught three for 57 and a score. Kittle and Johnson have been limited in practice this week but are expected to be fine. I will probably avoid Kittle given that there are so many mouths to feed now. He just isn't likely to see the same volume as the other top TEs and needs to be very efficient to pay off his salary. 

  • Favorite Seahawks Stack: QB Smith + RB McCaffrey + WR Metcalf and/or TE Barner
  • Favorite 49ers Stack: QB Purdy + RB McCaffrey + WR Jennings or WR Pearsall + TE Barner

Kansas City Chiefs (22) at Buffalo Bills (24)

CHIEFS

The undefeated Chiefs face their stiffest test yet as they head to Buffalo. This matchup has produced some legendary performances over the years and while I'm not sure we can expect a 60-point shootout, it's still an appealing game to stack. Partly because these teams are easier to stack than the 49ers or Lions at the moment given injuries and condensed offenses. Patrick Mahomes ($6,800) has clearly benefited from the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700) as he now has a legitimate WR to fill the void left by Rashee Rice. Hopkins has settled in nicely and will be much less popular this week after he was held in check by Patrick Surtain last week. Xavier Worthy ($5,600) is once again viable for tournaments now that his salary has finally dropped under $6K. Travis Kelce ($6,300) continues to be a target monster, with at least 12 in three consecutive games. He's made the most of them too, topping 20 fantasy points in each game. Kareem Hunt ($6,700) looks set to lead the backfield again with Isiah Pacheco likely a week away from returning. Hunt caught seven of 10 targets for 65 yards last week and he won't be popular at all this week given that the Chiefs are road underdogs and other RBs project better. Nevertheless, I prefer Kelce and Hopkins.

BILLS

We haven't seen Josh Allen ($7,800) hit the heights of years past but he's scored at least 20 DraftKings points in five consecutive games and always get up for matchups with Mahomes and the Chiefs. He''ll be hardly used as many have become averse to spending up at QB and that makes him intriguing. Khalil Shakir ($6,300) will lead the WR group with Keon Coleman out for another week. Shakir has caught at least six passes in four consecutive games. Amari Cooper ($5,700) is expected back after missing the last two games with a wrist injury. It's anyone's guess as to how much he'll play but he's cheap enough to be considered if you feel like gambling. Mack Hollins ($3,800) stepped up with nine catches in the two games that Cooper missed and would be a viable source of value were Cooper to miss again. The same goes for Curtis Samuel ($3,300), who drew eight targets last week. Dalton Kincaid (knee) is also out, which could open up a few extra targets for the WRs. They may also just go to Dawson Knox ($3,500), who's in line for his first start of the season. He's been a favorite red-zone target of Allen and looks like one of the better values at TE. 

  • Favorite Chiefs Stack: QB Mahomes + WR Hopkins or TE Kelce + WR Shakir or TE Knox
  • Favorite Bills Stack: QB Allen + WR Hopkins or TE Kelce + WR Shakir and/or TE Knox

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jordan Love + WR Jayden Reed or WR Romeo Doubs + WR Keenan Allen or WR Rome Odunze

QB Jared Goff + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown + TE Evan Engram

QB Bo Nix + RB Bijan Robinson or WR Drake London + WR Courtland Sutton 

QB Bo Nix + WR Courtland Sutton + TE Kyle Pitts

QB Tua Tagovailoa + RB De'Von Achane + WR Jakobi Meyers + WR Tyreek Hill or WR Jaylen Waddle

QB Matthew Stafford + RB Rhamondre Stevenson + WR Puka Nacua or WR Cooper Kupp

QB Jameis Winston + RB Alvin Kamara + WR Cedric Tillman or WR Jerry Jeudy +/- TE David Njoku 

QB Jameis Winston + WR Cedric Tillman or WR Jerry Jeudy + TE Taysom Hill

QB Drake Maye + WR Puka Nacua or WR Cooper Kupp + WR Kayshon Boutte and/or TE Hunter Henry

High-Priced Heroes

Any worries about McCaffrey's workload were put aside when he played 88 percent of snaps and out-touched Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo 19 to 1 last week against Tampa Bay. Sunday's matchup against Seattle is more favorable given that they've been cooked by RBs for 5.1 yards per carry and 155 per game. McCaffrey would priced closer to $9K had he been healthy and that's part of the reason he's the top projected player on the slate. I want as much exposure as possible. 

Kelce has drawn a whopping 40 targets the last three games, catching 32 for 254 yards and two scores. The Bills have allowed the league's sixth-most catches to TEs. Kelce's ownership will stay in check this week given how much cheap value has emerged at the position with the likes of Hunter Henry, Dawson Knox, Brock Wright, AJ Barner and Davis Allen expected to be relatively popular. You can roster Kelce in two TE builds as well, which are more viable given the lack of cheap RBs and WRs. 

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I highlighted Hall as the fade last week and the Jets imploded against the Cardinals. He's been held to less than 13 fantasy points in three consecutive games and projects to be the fourth-highest owned RB. It's not that I don't think he's a good option, I just prefer McCaffrey, Kamara and Achane, among others. It's also worth noting that while the Jets have a decent matchup, the Colts run defense has been considerably better since getting DeForest Buckner back. That could always be mitigated if Anthony Richardson continues to stink it up, but these are the chances we take. If I'm getting different at RB, it will be with someone cheaper. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

After spending the previous four seasons with New Orleans, Winston will be licking his chops (fingers) for a matchup against his old team. The Saints traded their best cornerback in Marshon Lattimore and their promising young replacements are only just back from injury. They've allowed the league's third-most pass plays of 20-plus yards and that's what Winston does best. His four top pass-catchers — Tillman, Jeudy, Njoku and Moore — are viable tournament options as he has a chance for 300 yards and three TDs in this spot. He's the best of the cheap options if you're considering saving salary off of Purdy. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Geno Smith at SF ($5,700)

QB Drake Maye vs. LAR ($5,600)

QB Jameis Winston at NO ($5,500)

QB Aaron Rodgers vs. IND ($5,500)

QB Anthony Richardson at NYJ ($5,300)

RB Audric Estime vs. ATL ($4,500)

WR Ricky Pearsall vs. SEA ($4,900)

WR DeMario Douglas vs. LAR ($4,700)

WR Elijah Moore at NO ($4,300)

WR Mack Hollins vs. KC ($3,800), if Amari Cooper is out

WR Kayshon Boutte vs. LAR ($3,500)

TE Hunter Henry vs. LA ($3,900)

TE Dawson Knox vs. KC ($3,500)

TE Brock Wright vs. JAX ($3,300)

TE AJ Barner at SF ($3,100)

TE Davis Allen at NE ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

Cooper is listed questionable after missing the last two games due to a wrist injury. If he's out, Mack Hollins ($3,800) and Curtis Samuel ($3,300) could be considered for tournaments. Khalil Shakir and Dawson Knox are decent options no matter what but I'd give them a small bump too if Cooper is out. 

Weather

  • All clear this week. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Belongia
Ryan is the top-ranked DFS soccer player on RG, reigning King of the Pitch Champion at DraftKings and 2021 finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year.
Box Score Breakdown: Week 16 Snaps, Routes, Personnel and Usage
Box Score Breakdown: Week 16 Snaps, Routes, Personnel and Usage
NFL Expert Picks: Week 16 Monday Night Football: Saints at Packers
NFL Expert Picks: Week 16 Monday Night Football: Saints at Packers
Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints
Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints
NFL Picks: Monday Night Football Picks and Player Props
NFL Picks: Monday Night Football Picks and Player Props
NFL Waiver Wire: Week 17 Early Watch
NFL Waiver Wire: Week 17 Early Watch
NFL Reactions: Week 16 Recap
NFL Reactions: Week 16 Recap