Bowl Game Pick 'Em: Confidence Pool Picks and Strategy

Bowl Season Confidence Pool Picks and Strategy for 2023-24

'Tis the season to be jolly with college football on the loose in bowl action and bowl pools firing up to bring us some cheer during the holiday season. This article is for pools where you pick games straight up and place confidence points on the line, with the highest values (41) being placed on the games you are most confident you've picked a winner.

In general, you place your heavy-favorite winners near the top, and save your smaller point totals for toss-up contests and games in which you anticipate an underdog pulling off an upset. This way, it doesn't hurt you as much if the underdog loses or the toss-up turns up heads when you pick tails.

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College Football Pool Tools

• College Football Odds
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College Football Bowl Pool Confidence Picks

Note: Lines are included, but these picks are straight up.

41) Oregon (-17) vs. Liberty

Quack quack quack quack quack, Mr. Ducksworth! The Ducks fell to playoff-bound Washington twice by a combined six points during the 2023 season, keeping them out of the CFP. Liberty is a good team with a promising quarterback in Kaidon Salter and an undefeated record, but the Flames also yielded 35 points to New Mexico State to UTEP in the last two games. The Ducks are at largely full force (minus Bucky Irving) for this one, and I anticipate Bo Nix and co. taking care of business here with a talented Jordan James available as the lead back.

40) Georgia (-14.0) vs. Florida State

If Jordan Travis were available for the Seminoles, this game would be much closer to a fair fight. But, as it stands, the committee clearly didn't feel they were playoff-worthy, and for good reason, given the Seminoles' offensive struggles in the last two games. While Tate Rodemaker seems likely to be back for the bowl game (though unconfirmed), there's still a monumental gap between Rodemaker and Travis at the quarterback position. Johnny Wilson also announced his departure for the 2024 NFL Draft, leaving the 'Noles down another weapon in an already beleaguered passing attack. Keep an eye on the Bulldogs to ensure there aren't additional absences for the bowl game, but it's among the heaviest of leans for me in the direction of Georgia at this point, even if a player or two ends up sitting out.

39) UTSA (-13.0) vs. Marshall

The Roadrunners are guided by a vet in Frank Harris, who is coming off a rough showing against Tulane but will surely want to close out his senior season with a strong showing against the Thundering Herd, and he'll have a month to prep for it. Joshua Cephus is an impressive weapon at wideout, and the team has a trio of solid running backs to cycle between Kevorian Barnes, Robert Henry and Rocko Griffin. Marshall has seen double-digit players enter the transfer portal since the end of the regular season, including starting quarterback Cam Fancher and wideout Caleb Coombs, among others. Cole Pennington seems the likely starter for Marshall, and he sports a 0:6 TD:INT ratio on the season.

38) Kansas (-12.5) vs. UNLV

The Jayhawks are a better team than their 8-4 record indicates, losing two of those contests with third-string quarterback Cole Ballard under center. Jason Bean returned for the regular-season finale, and the Jayhawks throttled Cincinnati 49-16. While it's unlikely the bowl game will turn into that much of a blowout, the Jayhawks check in 23rd in SP+ in terms of offense, while UNLV is 96th on the defensive side. UNLV particularly struggles against opposing QBs, allowing 20 passing touchdowns and eight rushing scores, and Jason Bean has track speed and could have a field day in that environment. There is also some question about whether or not Jayden Maiava has entered or will enter the transfer portal, but there doesn't seem to be anything official about him leaving yet, so I'm banking on Maiava at least playing in the bowl game.

37) San Jose State (-10.5) vs. Coastal Carolina

While this could have been and still could be a fun game to watch, the Chanticleers will be down some major firepower. Starter Grayson McCall moved on to NC State as a transfer and backup Jarrett Guest has also entered the transfer portal. On top of that, CJ Beasley and Tyson Mobley, two significant weapons for Coastal, have also moved into the portal along with double-digit players in total. The Spartans will also be down a weapon at tight end in Dominick Mazotti, who is in the portal as well, but most of the team's primary contributors remain intact.

36) South Alabama (-15.5) vs. Eastern Michigan

It's not every day you see a 15.5-point spread between to 6-6 teams, but we arrive here likely due to Eastern Michigan losing starting quarterback Austin Smith to the transfer portal as part of a unit that graded out 130th in SP+ -- among the worst in college football already. There are some question marks in the Jaguars' offense as well in terms of Carter Bradley's health. La'Damian Webb (NFL Draft), and Caullin Lacy (transfer portal) are also set to miss the contest, which is why I don't have quite as high on the list as the odds would suggest they be. Still, it's simply a case where there is a significant talent differential in favor of South Alabama.

35) SMU (-11.0) vs. Boston College

SMU comes into the bowl game playing good ball, winning nine straight contests, including a two-score win over Tulane last time out in the AAC Championship Game. While Preston Stone won't be under center for the Mustangs, BC's quarterback situation is still not really in better shape with Thomas Castellanos, who posted a 5:7 TD:INT ratio over the last five games. Kevin Jennings struggled slightly under center against Tulane, but he still finished with 203 passing yards and 63 rushing yards, and the Mustangs have a pair of impressive backs to lean on in Jaylan Knighton and LJ Johnson, plus a defense that ranks 41st in SP+. I don't think the loss of Stone lessens the gap between the teams enough for me to be worried at this point.

34) LSU (-8.5) vs. Wisconsin

As a fan and an alum of Wisconsin, this pick pains me, but, if I'm being realistic, this will be a doozy for the Badgers. I did take Wisconsin to cover the 10.5-point spread at the time of publication of the against-the-spread picks article, and that line has since shrunk by a couple of points. That being said, LSU is largely at full strength for this one, with a Heisman-winning quarterback at the helm, while Wisconsin lost one of its biggest offensive pieces to the NFL Draft in Braelon Allen, plus a pair of contributing wideouts in Chimere Dike and Skyler Bell to the transfer portal. While I wouldn't be shocked if Wisconsin covers even the 8.5-point spread, there have been some holes in the defense to where this could be a blowout, too, especially considering the Badgers have scored no more than 28 points since Sept. 22.

33) Troy (-7.5) vs. Duke

Troy may only be three spots ahead of Duke in the SP+ rankings (26 versus 29), but the Blue Devils are going into this one in the midst of a lot of turmoil, including the loss of starter Riley Leonard to Notre Dame via the transfer portal and head coach Mike Elko to Texas A&M. The Blue Devils have also lost a number of impactful players on both sides of the ball to the transfer portal, including safety Jaylen Stinson, running back Jordan Waters, linebacker Dorian Mausi and safety Brandon Johnson. This will be a different-looking Blue Devils squad that steps onto the field for the bowl game, while Troy is headed by veteran options in senior Gunnar Watson and junior running back Kimani Vidal.

32) Louisville (-7.5) vs. USC

 The Cardinals put up a fight in the ACC Championship game versus Florida State, but the Seminoles' defense was ultimately just too good, and the 'Noles just pieced together enough offense to take care of business. It shouldn't be nearly as difficult for an explosive weapon like Jamari Thrash to find room in this one against a USC defense that ranked 109th in SP+ and has struggled in all aspects this year. The Trojans will also be without star signal-caller Caleb Williams, the presumed top overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and starting running back Marshawn Lloyd, too. The Cardinals did lose Jawhar Jordan to the draft, but Isaac Guerendo filled in capably when he missed time earlier this year.

31) Tennessee (-8.5) vs. Iowa

Iowa's defense is what really drives any success the team has, as has been the case for a number of years at this point. Iowa's defense ranks second in SP+, but the offense checks in 127th in SP+, and Tennessee is much more balanced on both sides of the ball. Joe Milton has multiple turnovers in just three games all season, and I don't think the defense here will be able to overcome the Hawkeyes' offensive inefficiencies. While they could make it close, the defense showed some leaks without some of its best players, such as star defensive back Cooper DeJean, and I don't see a scenario in which this goes in their favor. That said, I think the defense could keep the Vols' scoring in check to a point.

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30) Notre Dame (-6.5) vs. Oregon State

Note: since the publication of this article, Audric Estime has opted out of the bowl game. This could change this for this game and sway the pine back toward the Beavers a bit.

This one is fairly simple for me. Both teams have been hit hard here by either the draft or the transfer portal, but the Beavers have just lost more. Not only is DJ Uigaglelei back in the portal, but so is star tight end Jack Velling and backup signal-caller Aidan Chiles. In addition to that Damien Martinez and Anthony Gould have entered the NFL Draft, leaving the Beavers down a ton of the offensive production from 2023. Notre Dame still has its biggest piece in the fold in Audric Estime and one of the better defenses (11th in SP+) in college football to fall back on, so this one seemingly favors the Irish in the war of attrition.

29) Iowa State (-8.5) vs. Memphis

The Cyclones opened as 6.5-7-point favorites for the contest, and the line has since moved another 1.5 points in their direction. They did lose Cartevious Norton to the transfer portal, but Abu Sama proved in the team's last game Kansas State that he can handle the lead role, torching the Wildcats for 276 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. The Tigers have played some close games down the stretch to teams that aren't particularly impressive, while the Cyclones have hung with Texas and beaten Kansas State. The line is justified and Matt Campbell does a good job preparing his teams for bowl games.

28) West Virginia (-5.5) vs. North Carolina

North Carolina's success this season hinged largely on Drake Maye. In the team's eight wins, Maye posted a 17:5 TD:INT ratio and completed 68.3 percent of his pass attempts. In the team's losses, he completed only 53.7 percent of his attempts and posted a 7:4 TD:INT mark. Without the engine that churns the offense and without the team's most talented wideout in Devontez Walker, this seems like a game the Mountaineers can just play smashmouth with Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson, adding in some Garrett Greene wrinkles to take care of business.

27) Appalachian State (-6.5) vs. Miami (Ohio)

The Mountaineers couldn't keep pace with Troy in the Sun Belt title game, with star back Kimani Vidal running rampant to the tune of 233 yards and five touchdowns. While Rashad Amos is fine, he's not quite on the same level as Vidal and has thrived primarily on having a nose for the end zone when the RedHawks get close. That may be more difficult to do in this one with starting quarterback Aveon Smith on the move in the transfer portal. Nate Noel is a notable inclusion on the Mountaineers' side, but App. State's running back room is rather deep, so it doesn't seem like quite the same loss. Miami will also be without kicker Graham Nicholson, who nailed 26 of 27 field-goal attempts this year, which could also prove to be a factor in this one.

26) Virginia Tech (-7.5) vs. Tulane

The Green Wave had a phenomenal season overall but showed some holes in the AAC Championship Game, struggling to find traction on the ground and through the air against the SMU defense. Virginia Tech's defense is along similar lines, so it wouldn't shock me to see similar struggles for the Green Wave on offense. Kyron Drones has really come into his lone recently as well, leading the Hokies to 28-plus points in each of the last three contests. The Hokies also have the edge on special teams, which could be a factor in this one.

25) Texas State (-4.5) vs. Rice

These are two teams that mirror each other in a way that the offenses are solid, but the defense has a hard time stopping the opposition. While the Owls are technically only giving up 28.5 points per contest, which is 74th in the FBS, good teams haven't struggled to put up points. Tulane dropped 30, SMU posted 36, and UTSA rattled off 34 against them, not to mention USF putting up 42 and UConn dropping 38. Neither team here is losing much in the way of production going into the bowl, and the Bobcats just have a better offense to where I think they will outpace the Owls.

24) UCLA (-4.0) vs. Boise State

The Bruins didn't exactly close out the season the way you'd like, losing three of the last four games, but teams that have beat them have done so through the air, with every running back room the Bruins have faced falling below its season average for production. With Taylen Green on the move to Arkansas and Maddux Madsen out for the year, CJ Tiller will likely draw the start under center for the Broncos in the bowl game. A three-star recruit who is a rue freshman, Tiller has yet to attempt a pass in his college career. I expect the Bruins to force him to beat them, and I don't think that he's ready for that.

23) Clemson (-4.0) vs. Kentucky

After a rough stretch in the middle of the season that saw the Tigers drop three games in a five-game span, the team leaned on the ground game down the stretch and found success again, winning each of the last four contests, including two wins over top-30 teams in the SP+ rankings. Kentucky did have one win in that range over Louisville in the final game of the regular season, but the other six weren't quite as impressive for the resume. Add to that the loss of star running back Ray Davis for the bowl game as he heads to the draft, and the scales on offense tend to tip a bit in the direction of the Tigers. The line has trended down 3.5 points since it opened at 7.5, but I'm still on board with the win in a straight-up format, likely getting Will Shipley and Phil Mafah plenty of touches.

22) Arizona (-3.0) vs. Oklahoma

Arizona's offense has turned into a juggernaut down the stretch, racking up 27 or more points in each of the last seven games and north of 40 points four times in that span. While the Sooners are no slouch on that front either, tallying 69 and 59 on two different occasions in the last four, that came under the direction of star quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who has been the key cog in the system both through the air and on the ground. He has bolted to Oregon via the transfer portal, while running backs Tawee Walker and Marcus Major have also entered the transfer portal, along with Key Lawrence, who racked up 44 tackles and two picks for the Sooners this season in the secondary. Lawrence's absence could lead to some problems facing Tetairoa McMillan and Jacob Cowing, not to mention tight end Tanner McLachlan.

21) Texas Tech (-3.0) vs. California

In general, I've been trending toward the teams that have less turnover on the roster heading into the bowl game, but that's not the case here with the Red Raiders, who will be down major production out wide with Myles Price, Jerand Bradley and Loic Fouonji all entering the transfer portal. Price and Bradley were the two leading wideouts in terms of catches this year, but that doesn't mean there aren't plenty of others to turn to. The key piece here is in the backfield, with Tahj Brooks going against a Golden Bears front that has allowed all but two of the last nine running back rooms to outproduce their season averages. Brooks is a monster on the ground, rushing for 1,447 yards and nine touchdowns this season, and he'll likely see a heavy dose in the bowl game.

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20) Central Florida (UCF) (-5.0) vs. Georgia Tech

This game opened with UCF as a 4.5-point point favorite and has moved in the direction of the Knights since then. Both teams should have most of their big producers for this game -- a rarity, as you can tell -- but the Yellow Jackets will be down a key piece along the defensive line in Kyle Kennard, who has entered the transfer portal after massing 54 tackles (32 solo), six sacks and an interception this season. Kenan Johnson (29 tackles, one interception) is also in the portal. That kind of production is hard to replicate with the next man up, plus the Knights seem to be healthy at just the right time with all of their weapons.

19) Wyoming (-3.0) vs. Toledo

This game reached as far as Toledo -2.5 at one point, but it has swayed in a major way following the news that quarterback Dequan Finn entered the transfer portal. Finn is the team's biggest weapon, boasting an elite dual-threat ability, so losing him may see the Rockets' leaking fuel. The Cowboys will likely be facing Tucker Gleason in the bowl game, who did throw for four touchdowns this season, but he's not the threat on the ground Finn is, and I expect the Cowboys to focus on keeping Peny Boone in check while forcing the unproven commodity under center to beat them.

18) Minnesota (-4.0) vs. Bowling Green

Minnesota loses starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis for the bowl game, as he's entered the parade of transfer portal entrants following the conclusion of the regular season. Even so, Minnesota's offense relies heavily on the running game, so the loss of a quarterback isn't the end of the world. On the flip side, Bowling Green, who also tends to rely heavily on the ground, loss a major piece of the rushing attack in Ta'Ron Keith to the transfer portal. The other piece to that backfield tandem, Terion Stewart, missed the final three games of the regular season, and it's unclear if he'll be back in action for the bowl game. Minnesota star freshman back Darius Taylor also missed the final five games of the regular season, but Jordan Nubin has filled in capably and would be a fine option for the Gophers if Taylor remains out for the bowl game.

17) Penn State (-3.5) vs. Ole Miss

I wrestled with where to toss this one in, and I wouldn't be opposed to moving it up the board a few spots. It's a scenario where the Ole Miss' offense operates at its best when Quinshon Judkins is a major factor, and it may be difficult for him to find traction against a Nittany Lions front allowing just 2.2 yards per carry (second in FBS) and 69.7 rushing yards per game (third in FBS). Only Michigan backs of all of the opponents Penn State rattled off regular production, while most running backs were held 60-plus percent under average. Ole Miss' run defense has been more forgiving, and I expect the duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to get plenty of run in this one. The Nittany Lions' only two losses came to two of the top three teams in SP+ and two of the top three defenses in the country.

16) Syracuse (-3.0) vs. USF

By SP+ standards, this is likely the widest gap remaining. The Orange rank 68th overall in the SP+ rankings, while USF sports is the third-lowest SP+ rank (102) among the bowl-eligible teams, largely due to a defense that ranks 123rd and special teams at 88th overall. The Orange have a more respectable defense (50th in SP+), and Garrett Shrader finally proved to be healthy in the final game of the regular season, revitalizing the offense along with stud running back LeQuint Allen. The Orange should emerge on top in this one.

15) New Mexico State (-4.0) vs. Fresno State

These are two teams headed in opposite directions toward the end of the season, and I have a hard time seeing things making a major swing in the bowl game. The Aggies have won eight of their last nine games, with their only loss coming in a hard-fought game against Liberty. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have lost three straight games, including the last two versus teams outside the top 100 in SP+ (San Diego State and New Mexico). The line has moved from -1.0 to -4.0 for the Aggies, which bolsters my confidence in this selection.

14) Georgia Southern (-3.0) vs. Ohio

In terms of line swings, this is another one that has seen a big one, and for good reason. The Bobcats actually opened as 1.5-point favorites and saw the line move as far as three points in their favor, but a flood of transfer portal entrants that includes starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke, starting running back Sieh Bangura, wideout Miles Cross and second-leading tackler Keye Thompson in the transfer portal, and now we're looking at Georgia Southern as three-point favorites. I just have a hard time trusting rosters with that much turnover, so I'm confident in backing the Eagles here.

13) Jacksonville State (-2.5) vs. Louisiana

The Gamecocks lost their final game of the regular season to a surging New Mexico State squad, but they kept it to within three points and are playing good football at the moment. The team's worst loss in the SP+ rankings came against a Grayson McCall-led Coastal Carolina team (76th SP+), who proceeded to lose McCall to injury shortly after, which hurt the team's season. Other than that, a 10-point loss to South Carolina (54th in SP+) is the biggest blemish. Louisiana, on the other hand, lost one to Southern Miss (118 SP+) down the stretch. Neither team has major transfer concerns, but this line has shifted four points in the direction of the Gamecocks since it opened, which makes me like the direction.

12)  Texas (-4.5) vs. Washington

Many will have this higher because of the spread, but I just don't have a great feel for this game. I think a bit of this spread leans on recency bias following Texas' throttling of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and Michael Penix did display some questionable decision-making in the Pac-12 Championship Game, which didn't come end up coming back to hurt him. Still, the Longhorns will be down star back Jonathan Brooks, and, per SP+, Iowa State (34th) is actually the best opponent the Longhorns have faced since his injury, and that was a struggle. The Cowboys had been struggling against opposing passing attack recently as well, so the Longhorns' outburst isn't too surprising. Still, Vegas spreads have to mean something, and Texas also checks in with an SP+ rating six points above their opponent. I don't feel great about this game, so I'm keeping it lower on the list because there is a ton of talent on both sides.

11) Auburn (-2.5) vs. Maryland

Neither of these teams has a particularly signature win on their schedule, but Auburn has much better close losses in my opinion. Maryland's biggest tally in the kept-it-close column came against Michigan in Week 12, when they lost by just a touchdown. Auburn, however, bettered that a week later by giving up a fourth-and-goal touchdown from the 30-plus yards out against Alabama in the Iron Bowl. They also had touchdown losses to both Georgia and Ole Miss, showing that they can keep pace with some of the better teams in the country. The Terps also lose a big red-zone threat in Corey Dyches for the bowl game, and the line has moved a point in the direction of the Tigers since it opened, making me more comfortable with this pick.

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10) Texas A&M (-2.5) vs. Oklahoma State

The Aggies have lost head coach Jimbo Fisher for the bowl game, and that is certainly a notable outcome, but the Aggies haven't quite flooded the transfer portal as much as expected. They will be down Ainias Smith, who declared for the NFL Draft, but Noah Thomas, Moose Muhammad and Jahdae Walker remain intact, as does the team's backfield and quarterback Jaylen Henderson, sho showed some promise down the stretch. Oklahoma State has lost some notable names in Jaden Bray and Blaine Green, though their main corps of wideouts remains intact as well, as does star running back Ollie Gordon. The Cowboys are at their best when they can lean on Gordon to shoulder the load, which may be difficult against an Aggies defense that has held all but two of its opposing running back rooms 20-plus percent under season-average production. If Gordon doesn't shine, it may be tough for the Cowboys.

9) Arkansas State (-1.5) vs. Northern Illinois

The RedWolves stumbled a bit down the stretch, losing two of their last three games, but mixed in there was a 77-point output against Texas State in a blowout win. The Huskies did win two of their last three, but they both came against teams outside the top 100 in SP+, as did the two losses before that. Arkansas State's resume is a better one, and they face Huskies defense that lost one of its leading pass rushers, Greg Gumbs (34 tackles, 3.5 sacks), to the transfer portal along with defensive back Devin Lafayette (39 tackles (0.5 sacks).

8) Utah State (-1.0) vs. Georgia State

This game is riddled with questions on the injury front, but the primary focus of it will be the quarterback position for the Aggies. It's going to be one of Cooper Legas, McCae Hillstead and Levi Williams, and I would feel much better about the Aggies' chances here if it's either of the first two, because there are weapons in Terrell Vaughn and Jalen Royals that are more in play with those two. If you have the ability to change picks leading up to games, it will be worth monitoring the status of the starters in this one, but I think one of the two will likely be ready for the bowl.

7) Missouri (-2.5) vs. Ohio State

This line opened at Ohio State -6.5, but the news of starting quarterback Kyle McCord entering the transfer portal shifted things in a major way, leading to the Tigers being favored. Do I think Missouri has the better of the two options under center? Yes. But, the main question is whether I think the gap between McCord and Devin Brown is really worth eight points. I'm not so certain on that. Ohio State still has one of the best defenses in the country and a bevy of talented wideouts and running backs, though Chip Trayanum has transferred to Kentucky. I still think Brady Cook, Cody Schrader, Luther Burden and co. can make up the difference, but the line has dropped three points since the McCord news came out, and it wouldn't surprise me if it shrinks a bit more.

6) Air Force (+2.5) vs. James Madison

James Madison has relied on star quarterback Jordan McCloud and a stout defense to get where they are, which is an impressive 11-1 mark after a thrashing of Coastal Carolina in the regular-season finale. Unfortunately, with that success comes the pursuit of greener pastures, and McCloud entered the transfer portal following the conclusion of the regular season. On the defensive side, second-leading tackler Jalin Walker entered the portal, as did James Carpenter and his 48 tackles and 4.0 sacks. Leading tackler Aiden Fisher is also in the portal, as is third-leading tackler Mikail Kamra and Tauras Jones (38 tackles, one sack), leaving massive holes in the defense against a tough team to prepare for in Air Force. There could be some issues on defense in this one.

5) Michigan (-1.5) vs. Alabama

This line opened at Michigan -2.0 or -1.5 and has essentially stuck at that spot, making this close to a toss-up between the clubs. The Wolverines haven't fared well in season past playoff appearances, so I wouldn't blame you if you decide to turn to an experienced Crimson Tide team here, but Michigan has been surgical this season and sports the best SP+ of the bunch by a sizable margin. (2.6 over second-place Georgia and 8.4 over Alabama, which is a significant difference). I also can't completely leave in the dust Jalen Milroe's benching early in the season due to poor play, and his struggles in the Iron Bowl that required a miracle fourth down to win. Milroe faced a quarterback in Carson Beck who had yet to serve as the starter on the big stage, and he bested him, but J.J. McCarthy was on the big stage in last year's Playoff Semifinal and performed well. I'll take the experience under center in this one.

4) Rutgers (+1.0) vs. Miami

While the Scarlet Knights are underdogs in this one, they certainly aren't big ones, and they face a Miami team without its top two quarterbacks for the bowl game, turning to a sophomore in Jacurri Brown, who struggled in his only action last season. Rutgers played some teams tough throughout the season and are no pushovers, sporting the 22nd-best defense in SP+. Corey Flagg and Jahfari Harvey are also both in the portal on the defensive side, plus Colbie Young, Frank Ladson and Donald Chaney have all entered the portal on offense. The turnover here is too much of a red flag, and I'm going with Rutgers.

3) Western Kentucky (+2.5) vs. Old Dominion

The Hilltoppers opened as one-point favorites, but things quickly shifted in the direction of the Monarchs. While the Monarchs were toasted by Liberty 38-10 earlier in the year, the Hilltoppers only dropped their shot against the Flames by 13, which puts a common opponent in their column. ODU also lost third-leading tackler in safety Terry Jones, who entered the transfer portal, for the game, which gives me concerns for some potential big plays with Malachi Corley. Despite the line shift, I'm holding strong on WKU.

2) North Carolina State (NC State) (+3.0) vs. Kansas State

This is another case here where I'm worried about the turnover on the Kansas State side. If both teams were at full strength for the bowl game, I would lean sizably in the favor of the Wildcats, but they lost starting quarterback Will Howard and running back Treshaun Ward to the transfer portal and star tight end Ben Sinnott to the NFL Draft. While Avery Johnson is a capable fill-in and DJ Giddens is arguably a better option out of the backfield than Ward, we haven't exactly seen Johnson as the centerpiece against a tough defense like the Wolfpack, and the loss of Sinnott can't be understated in this offense. I'm taking a Wolfpack upset.

1) Northwestern (+6.5) vs. Utah

Utah hasn't won a bowl game since 2017, losing four straight, so you can bet head coach Kyle Whittingham will be gunning to get back on the right side of the column here. However, the Utes will be down to a walk-on signal-caller for the bowl game as well in Luke Bottari, with Bryson Barnes and Nate Johnson in the portal and Cameron Rising still hurt. Devaughn Vele is presumably out as well after declaring for the NFL Draft. Utah still sports a great defense (27th in SP+) versus an overachieving Northwestern squad. No power-five teams check in further down the SP+ list than the Wildcats (71st), largely due to an offense that ranks 104th overall. That said, the Utes aren't the same team with Bottari under center, who attempted just 10 passes in the regular-season finale. Northwestern beat two top-30 SP+ teams in the last five games and lost by just three to Iowa, so this could be a storybook ending for a surprising Wildcats season, and I'm taking the upset.