The Z Files: Early Playing Time Beneficiaries

Apologies to those replying to my Twitter post, answering the question, "Where should X be drafted if we were drafting today?" The plan was to write a column around the most frequent requests. However, unbeknownst at the time, our friends at the National Fantasy Baseball Championship introduced a new contest, the Memorial Day "Second Chance" Championship. So, instead of the discussion being a hypothetical, I made an executive decision to backburner the piece for a few weeks.

Instead, today's topic is players who are receiving more playing time than projected and whether they'll continue to exceed expectations. So as not to make this a review of players on which I was personally wrong, preseason plate appearance numbers from RotoWire, Baseball HQ and Mastersball were averaged. Batters pacing to exceed at-bats by at least 100 are looked at. There's 35 of them, so grab a snack. They're listed in order of most under-projected at-bats.

Brandon Lowe, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays

Lowe has primarily benefited from Joey Wendle's absence along with Matt Duffy and Austin Meadows also convalescing on the IL. The Rays like to spread playing time around, so when everyone is back, Lowe's pace will slow a bit. However, so long as he continues to outperform Daniel Robertson, Lowe will remain in the lineup quite a bit, certainly enough to be viable in mid-sized mixed leagues. He'll be borderline in mixers with a dozen or fewer teams.

Leury Garcia, OF, Chicago White Sox

With Eloy Jimenez now a fixture in left field, there are two outfield spots available for Garcia, Ryan Cordell, Nicky Delmonico and Adam Engel. Charlie Tilson and Daniel Palka are also trying to get their acts together in Triple-A, plus Jon Jay will eventually come off the IL from a hip issue. Garcia's .694 OPS isn't impressive, but it's leading the pack so he's getting most of the run in center field. The White Sox will likely play the hot hand, so riding Garcia is fine for those needing steals as he's 4-for-4 in that department, but have a quick exit strategy at the ready.

Brian Goodwin, OF, Los Angles Angels

Goodwin is the first of several players taking advantage of an injury to a teammate. In this case, he's filling in admirably for Justin Upton, who hurt his toe leaping up against the outfield fence. Upton has no timetable to return, with late May the earliest he'll be back. This gives Goodwin at least a month to build on a solid start, which features a .344/.419/.594 slash through Wednesday's action. The early-season production will likely earn him some extra starts when Upton is back, but barring another outfield injury, Goodwin will fall back into a reserve role.

Tommy La Stella, 2B/3B, Los Angeles Angels

La Stella has averaged 147 at-bats the past three seasons, about the number he was expected to see this year, so it doesn't take much early playing time to put him on a pace for twice that. That said, the veteran utility infielder has cooled since smacking a surprising seven early homers (though the latest came Wednesday night) and is in danger of losing playing time to recently promoted Luis Rengifo, one of the Halos' top prospects.

Brandon Drury, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Drury has been keeping third base warm for some guy you may have heard about and is hitting .179. You do the math.

Adam Eaton, OF, Washington Nationals

Along with being an injury replacement, a common thread throughout the list is players expected to miss a chunk of time at some point but who have managed to avoid the injury bug to date. Eaton falls into that class, following a pair of abbreviated campaigns. As usual, he's a productive top-of-the-order hitter when on the field. Hopefully, you drafted Eaton at a discount, expecting him to miss time.

Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals

Like the White Sox, the Royals have a logjam at a couple of positions, with Soler seeing time in right field as well as designated hitter. He's one of the few power bats in the Kansas City lineup, which buys him some extra time. He's slugged six homers, but he's fanned at a 37.5 percent clip. If Lucas Duda shows any signs of life at the plate, Soler's time at DH will dwindle, relegating him to reserve outfield duty.

Luke Voit, 1B, New York Yankees

In retrospect, it's fair to ask, "What were we thinking?" How much of a threat did Greg Bird really pose? Granted, Voit has split time equally between first base and designated hitter with all the Yankees injuries, but still, expecting 400 at-bats seems light in retrospect. That said, Voit isn't crushing it, at least not in the average department, but he seems a safe bet to at least split the difference between the projected 400 at-bats and the 600 he's on pace to log.

Joey Rickard, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Nothing to see here. Despite playing more than the usual weak side of a platoon role, Rickard has registered a .699 OPS. Some of the added playing time is due to Cedric Mullins' inability to carry over last season's late success. If Mullins can show anything at Triple-A Norfolk, he could be back soon. Austin Hays is another possibility, though he's rehabbing a thumb injury and is several weeks from playing, let alone earning a promotion to the majors.

Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

Tellez's pathway to playing time was cleared following the deal sending Kendrys Morales to Oakland. Thus far, the rookie is taking advantage, crushing right-handers with a 1.044 OPS. Of course, that will settle, but Tellez should continue to amass considerable playing time, now as the second-best rookie in the lineup.

Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals

Like Voit, DeJong's presence on this list is a head-scratcher and is why three respected sources were used to filter candidates. In 2017, DeJong came up in late May, so he only accrued 443 at-bats. Last season, he lost time after breaking his hand on a hit by pitch. Perhaps it was unfair to hedge 2019 playing time due to a fluke injury. DeJong is putting egg on out collective faces as he's raking to the tune of .343/.398/.626 with a pair of bags.

Tyler Naquin, OF, Cleveland Indians

Lump the Indians among the clubs with unsettled outfield scenarios, waiting for someone to emerge. Naquin's advantage is batting left-handed, thus occupying the good side of a platoon. He can also play center, always a plus in this situation. All this was known heading into the season, yet the projecting triumvirate expressed a lack of confidence in him. There's a good chance the reticence is warranted, as Naquin is hitting a weak .226 with just one homer. Once Carlos Gonzalez finds his stroke, Naquin's playing time will wane.

Melky Cabrera, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Cabrera was signed as a reserve fly-chaser, but Lonnie Chisenhall's injury thrust the journeyman into a regular role. Chisenhall was supposed to be the placeholder for Gregory Polanco, but with Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte also out, Cabrera should continue to see frequent playing time. Once the troops are healthy, look for Cabrera to fall into a reserve outfielder, pinch-hitter role. Even when he's playing every day, Cabrera is no longer mixed-league worthy.

Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets

It's easy to laugh at this now, but when drafts were being held, Alonso's major-league arrival was uncertain. Keep in mind the Mets brought in Robinson Cano and still had Dominic Smith around, so the right side of the infield was covered if the front office wanted to manipulate his service time. Instead, injuries to Jed Lowrie and Todd Frazier (who's back now, stuck in a time share at third base) created plenty of room and Alonso made the Opening Day roster. The rest, as they say, is history, along with the eight balls he's sent into orbit.

Mark Reynolds, 1B, Colorado Rockies

Daniel Murphy's freak hand injury cleared the way for Reynolds to play a lot of first in his stead. Murphy is back so look for Reynolds to wrap up as a regular.

Leonys Martin, OF, Cleveland Indians

Unlike Naquin, Martin could have some staying power in the Tribe outfield. Martin's initial playing time was tempered as he returned from a life-threatening bacterial infection. At some point, Bradley Zimmer is expected to challenge for playing time but Martin seems entrenched, at minimum, on the good side of a platoon.

Tim Beckham, SS, Seattle Mariners

Beckham's initial playing time projection factored in the eventual promotion of J.P. Crawford, the centerpiece of the deal sending Jean Segura to the Phillies. Crawford has recorded a decent .784 OPS with a pair of bags for Triple-A Tacoma. However, Beckhams's .919 mark through Wednesday's action affords the Mariners some time for Crawford to further develop. Still, it's likely Crawford gets the call at some point this summer. Beckham's pace will lessen, but so long as he's productive, he remains a mixed league candidate.

Francisco Cervelli, C, Pittsburgh Pirates

Expecting a full season from a backstop with an extended concussion history is a risky endeavor. When healthy, Cervelli is a No. 1 receiver. However, he's only amassed 332, 265 and 326 at-bats the past three seasons. When playing, Cervelli is usually productive. This season, he's struggled early, batting only .167 through Wednesday's games. Considering his strikeouts are up and his walks way down, it may be time to look elsewhere, something you were bound to do anyway.

Daniel Descalso, 2B/3B, Chicago Cubs

Ian Happ's surprise demotion to begin the season opened time for Descalso. With a .681 OPS and 25 whiffs in his first 18 games with Triple-A Iowa, Happ isn't forcing the club's hand. Descalso is playing more than planned but falls short of mixed league consideration. Those in NL-only formats should continue to prosper as Joe Maddon loves versatility and will continue to find ways to keep Descalso in the lineup on a fairly regular basis.

Neil Walker, 1B/2B/3B, Miami Marlins

Walker was brought to South Beach as a veteran presence on a rebuilding squad. However, even with eligibility at three positions and playing time at first base in a platoon with Martin Prado, for the foreseeable future, Walker is in play in just the deepest of formats.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Grichuk has yet to eclipse 450 at-bats in a season, explaining the aggregate 444 expectation. Maybe he'll threaten the 600 he's pacing for, but Grichuk will need to avoid injury, as well as improve on the .700 OPS posted thus far.

Curtis Granderson, OF, Miami Marlins

Move along, it can't be long before the Fish send Granderson and his .164/.256/.343 decimals packing, giving some of their small fry a chance.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers

Some looked at Cabrera as a late source for a significant return on investment, and that still may come to fruition. However, the future Hall of Famer has yet to leave the yard in a season where dingers are mounting at a record pace. Not to mention, he's still an injury-risk. In 10 and 12 team leagues, cutting bait is viable. It's defensible in deeper leagues, though finding a replacement could be tough as corner isn't as plush as previous seasons and injuries have already depleted the inventory.

Dexter Fowler, OF, St, Louis Cardinals

While it's somewhat comforting I wasn't alone in shortchanging Fowler, I'll take the early L on my contention Fowler was done, offensively and defensively. The notion was the Redbirds would give the veteran a decent leash to succeed, but he'd spit the bit, ceding time to Tyler O'Neill. There's a lot of season left, so that scenario could still manifest. However, Fowler and his .310/.395/.423 are evidence there's still something left in the tank.

Jonathan Villar, 2B, Baltimore Orioles

Maybe this is recency bias working against Villar as he's averaged 435 at-bats the past two seasons. On the other hand, the Orioles don't have another option to stick at the keystone. Barring injury, Villar should blow past expectations, especially if he maintains the production he's displayed to date, featuring three homers and a tidy 6-for-7 on the base path.

David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

For the past several seasons, Peralta has sat versus most southpaws. This year, he's playing nearly every day. Better yet, he's hanging in against lefties, posting a .843 OPS, well above his career mark when lacking the platoon edge. This isn't apt to subsist, but without an obvious platoon partner, Peralta should continue to bat versus left-handers, perhaps at a detriment to his average but a boon to counting stats.

Renato Nunez, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

Nunez has benefited from Mark Trumbo's absence, as well as Chris Davis' early futility, capturing a lot of designated hitter at-bats. Trumbo may return in a month, but even if he does, Baltimore could slide Nunez back to third base, his natural position. Currently, Rio Ruiz is manning the hot corner, though Nunez is producing at a much higher level. It isn't certain, but there's a good chance he is a regular for the duration of the 2019 campaign.

Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals

It's early, so Molina hasn't enjoyed much time off. Once the weather warms, the 36-year old catcher will get more frequent rest.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Obviously, this is just an injury hedge. If Donaldson is healthy, he's playing.

Nick Ahmed, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

Ahmed has two things working in his favor. There's less competition for the playing time at shortstop with Chris Owings elsewhere and Ketel Marte bouncing between second and center. Perhaps more importantly, the slick fielder is following up last season's power spike with a better average. Granted, it's buoyed by a career best .329 BABIP, somewhat supported by a slightly higher average exit velocity. Ahmed's everyday status puts him in play in deeper mixed leagues. Those in 15-team formats and shallower, beware of a likely dip in average as he's fanning more than last season and the BABIP may not remain elevated.

Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Likely due to his all-out style, Kiermaier is good for an IL stint or two. It's only been four weeks, expect a visit at some point.

Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox

This one's on me as I was low man. Those pining for a Moncada breakout have an excellent chance to be rewarded. Not only has he cut way down on the strikeouts, Moncada's fly ball rate and average fly ball distance are both in the sweet spot to really benefit from the juiced ball.

Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Braun's injuries may not be due to an all-out style of play, but they're nonetheless as likely.

Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies

Franco's tempered at-bat total reflected the possibility he struggles, freeing up action for Scott Kingery. With Jean Segura in tow, Kingery was ticketed for a utility role with third base the most likely spot to play. Segura and Kingery are both on the shelf, but Franco is doing his part to maintain the reins, smacking six homers with 19 RBI. When everyone is healthy, at least initially, Franco's job should be secure, but he'll remain a risk to lose at-bats if he slumps.

Ketel Marte, 2B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Long time readers now understand why this review extended to 35 players. Marte barely makes the list, but 34 is a weird place to stop. Much like with Ahmed, there's less competition for playing time as the Diamondbacks are in process of rebuilding. Marte was a candidate for a platoon, but instead he's playing both infield and outfield on an everyday basis. The speed that originally caught my eye has yet to manifest. Instead, Marte is showing some pop, slugging .495. His versatility and production should ensure regular playing time all season.