Todd Frazier

Frazier hit for his highest batting average in four seasons in 2019, but his time back home in the NYC metro area was otherwise a step back from what fantasy owners enjoyed when he was in the Midwest. This was an expected outcome all along as Citi Field isn't the same kind of run environment like Frazier played in with Cincy and on the south side of Chicago. Frazier no longer runs on the bases as he did back then, but remains an effective run producer down in the lineup with better-than-average defense. He signed with Texas in January, and while the Rangers are moving into a domed stadium, it should still be a more favorable run environment than he was in in 2019 and the park upgrade could lead to a resurgence in his home-run and RBI totals. The Statcast numbers do not point to any hidden value here, but he's better than their other first-base options and should play regularly.

For the second straight season, Frazier hit just .213. Making matters worse, he hit only 18 homers, his lowest total since 2013. Frazier's HR/FB and flyball rates have declined two years in a row, fueling the drop. Durability is also an issue as he's about to embark on his age-33 campaign. Last season Frazier logged his fewest number of plate appearances since 2012, his first full year. A hamstring issue cost Frazier about a month in the first half while he lost another three-plus weeks in July with a left ribcage strain. The Mets appear to be in "go-for-it" mode and thus can't afford to keep Frazier's bat in the lineup if he's not hitting homers. His Statcast data is mixed as his exit velocity is picking up but his launch angle is lessening. He'll enter the season getting semi-regular playing time at first base, but will likely move to a full-on utility role once Peter Alonso gets the call in mid-to-late-April. Frazier is at best reserve fodder in mixed.

While a .225 average is never a desired commodity, it can be palatable if it carries along a boatload of homers, double-digit steals and the associated run production. That describes Frazier’s 2016 campaign. Unfortunately, in 2017, his average slipped to .213, homers fell from 40 to 27 and he only nabbed four bags compared to 15 the previous season. Even a move to the Bronx didn’t help. as the 31-year-old righty hit just .222 with 11 homers over 66 games in pinstripes, losing playing time to Chase Headley down the stretch. Frazier’s contact rate improved a little over 2016, but his .226 BABIP torpedoed his average. On paper, a BABIP rebound is possible as his line drive and hard hit rates portend better results. However, last season’s mark was following the previous year’s .236, so expecting a significant improvement is risky. Frazier’s price will be seriously depressed, making him a target for rosters with a heavy batting average buffer or for formats which deemphasize average.

Last season was a mixed bag of results for Frazier. On the good side of the ledger; he set career highs in home runs, walk rate, runs scored and RBI. On the bad side of the ledger; a career-worst batting average and strikeout rate. Those two normally go hand in hand, but throw in a career-high flyball rate and the poor guy never had much of a chance to hit for a good average. He pulled a lot of flyballs on his way to 40 home runs, with a high HR/FB ratio helping -- he only hit 21 doubles, making his 2015 total of 43 doubles look like an outlier. The steals from the third baseman help offset the damage from his batting average, and if he manages to make more consistent contact and hit near the league average, Frazier could return to among the fantasy elite.

Frazier's trade to the White Sox in December cements the notion that the Reds are in for the long-term overhaul, rather than attempting a two-year fix. While last year's trade deadline was probably the time to get the most for him — Frazier hit just 10 homers after the break and had an OPS below .700 — they still might have sold at his peak. The good news for Frazier is that in Chicago he landed in a pretty good place to hit, though he's unlikely to fully replicate the home cooking he had in Cincinnati. Over the last three years, Frazier has 51 homers in Great American Ballpark and just 32 on the road.

One of the shames of the 2014 season for the Reds is that they wasted the breakout seasons of Frazier and Devin Mesoraco. But was this season Frazier's peak, or one of a few more that we can expect in the future? Many of the underlying metrics suggest that this is his level -- his strikeout and walk rates have been remarkably stable the last three years, and his ISO was actually higher in 2012 when he first established himself as a regular player. The only stat that appears to be an outlier was his 20 stolen bases -- even in the minors he had never run that often. Assuming that Joey Votto is healthier this year, the Reds will finally leave Frazier at third base rather than move him all over the diamond, but you'll have the capability of slotting him at first if you'd like, which may be more of an advantage than in previous years, considering the state of the first base pool.

Some regression was expected in Frazier's stat line in his second full season in the big leagues, but instead the pendulum fully swung from lucky to unlucky, as his BABIP dropped from .320 down to .271. But bad luck can't fully explain Frazier's drop-off, as he continued to have a poor contact rate (76%) and his ISO dropped from .225 down to .173. To contend in 2014, the Reds need more from their right-handed hitters, and Frazier in particular. He may never exceed his 2012 rate stats, but he needs to approach them to be viable beyond this season.

Frazier rode the extended playing time provided by injuries to Scott Rolen and Joey Votto to a second place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, though a September fade (.181/.241/.264 in 72 at-bats) might have cost him the award. With Rolen likely to retire, Frazier is finally slated to have one position all to himself at third base. With a .320 BABIP and 76 percent contact rate last year, Frazier's .273 batting average is a likely candidate to decline in 2013, but that change could be counter-balanced, at least in terms of his fantasy value, by the increased playing time and the rise in counting stats that comes along with that. Frazier will be 27 in 2013, so this is pretty close to as good as it gets for him.

While repeating Triple-A in 2011, Frazier made enough gains to at least give some hope that he could be a major league bench player, if not a regular. As with teammate Juan Francisco, Frazier has some power potential with a less-than-optimal batting eye. He's never going to be a plus defender, though it appears as if he might be able to hold his own at third base. What might end up happening is that he'll platoon with Francisco at third base while occasionally filling in elsewhere. That scenario might not kick in until the second half of 2012 if not the start of 2013, with Scott Rolen under contract for another season.

Frazier took a step back last year at Triple-A Louisville, nearly doubling his strikeout rate while dropping in batting average by 40-plus points. He regressed enough to the point that the Reds didn't make him one of their September callups, instead choosing to keep him off the 40-man roster. Frazier's other problem is that he's without a position, having washed out at shortstop and second already. He split time between left field, third base and first base with Louisville last season, and probably projects best as an outfielder, where his value is limited. A return engagement in Louisville seems in the cards for Frazier.

Though Frazier is considered by many to be the Reds' top prospect, his long-term value is muted by a lack of positional value. Once drafted as a shortstop, Frazier has played third, left field and some second base. They worked with him on the latter position this offseason, only to state that he'll open 2010 as Triple-A Louisville's left fielder. As a middle infielder, he would be a plus-bat, but as a corner outfielder he's only average.

A first-round supplemental pick in 2007, Frazier has hit at every professional level, including the Hawaii Winter League (.295/.375/.547) in 2008. The bigger issue for Frazier is what position he'll end up playing - most scouts and analysts suggest that he won't be able to stick at shortstop - third base or a corner outfield spot is more likely.