Mound Musings: NL Central Draft Day Targets

Last week we looked at the AL East, and for the next four weeks, I'll continue to throw out some names for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2019 season. We're halfway home, so let's look at the:

National League Central

Chicago Cubs – A lot of the Cubs' pitching success in 2019 will revolve around the health of Yu Darvish. The Cubs have one of the more "set" rotations in the National League if Darvish is healthy. He has a pretty amazing repertoire and when right he's a true ace. But he has to be able to throw them all, and I can't justify paying full price without knowing for certain. He's huge reward but very high risk. The next four – Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana – are all viable fantasy rotation guys, not aces, but they can be quite productive pitching in front of that explosive lineup. Hamels was a huge addition last summer and he really perked up after coming over from Texas. I expect a very good season, and he could come at a bit of a discount on draft day. Lester still makes me crazy with his lack of willingness to hold runners (yet, he has remained viable). Quintana hasn't been as successful as I expected, but I do think he'll be a bit better this year. I think my biggest concern would again be Hendricks. Extreme soft-tossers can be very vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes or off days. If he gets just slightly out of synch, things can get difficult, but he has proven he can spot his pitches consistently, so perhaps he's "safer" than I see it. Last year, they signed righty Tyler Chatwood and everyone thought surely he'll like pitching outside Colorado (me included). Wrong. Maybe they will get him straightened out, but he has been a certifiable train wreck since joining the Cubbies.

I have long loved Brandon Morrow and even more so in the role of closer. Alas, like so many (it seems) I am fond of, he has proven to be very fragile over his career. He missed the second half last year and likely won't be ready on Opening Day. When he's ready, he's their closer and a very good one. Until then, Pedro Strop probably stands as a fairly capable fill-in. I also really like Carl Edwards Jr. (you can't help but love his filthy stuff), and I believe he will one day close, just not until he can consistently spot that stuff. Add Steve Cishek, Brad Brach, Brandon Kintzler and lefty Brian Duensing, all with late-inning experience. This is a deep pen to compliment a pretty solid rotation.

Recapping the Cubs:

The arm to own: Cole Hamels, unless you want to risk grabbing Darvish
He's not for me: Tyler Chatwood
Best of the bullpen: Brandon Morrow, but monitor his health this spring

Cincinnati Reds – Last season – and it appears this spring – Luis Castillo was a very popular target, and that leads to a premium price tag on draft day. He has a big arm and considerable potential, but I still haven't seen enough secondary stuff to label him a top-of-the-rotation starter. The rest of the rotation is filled with pitchers who display both positives and negatives. Alex Wood came over from the Dodgers in the offseason and he's probably the No. 2. He is a cagey veteran and has enjoyed success in the past, but he has a history of arm problems, and his velocity has declined. He may be worth a shot later in the draft if he lasts that long. He is joined by Anthony DeSclafani, who is marginal due to his vulnerability to left-handed swingers and who has also missed big chunks of previous seasons. The other new kid – okay not really a kid – on the block is Tanner Roark. He has also enjoyed success in previous seasons, but like most sinkerballers, he relies on spotting his pitches. He has to keep the ball on the ground or he can get hurt in Cincinnati. I'm skeptical but a bit hopeful. Tyler Mahle can throw strikes with four pitches, but his stuff is just average. He's probably not awful, but as with all the Reds' starters, I just can't get very excited. A couple more names to watch would be southpaws Brandon Finnegan and Cody Reed. They have more upside than all of the above not named Castillo, but they lack command and consistency. Just look for some progress.

The Reds' bullpen lists Raisel Iglesias as the closer. He can also contribute multiple innings, but they need to be judicious with his usage. He has established the ability to be an effective end gamer. Jared Hughes and David Hernandez will be key set-up guys, but I like hard throwing Michael Lorenzen a bit better. Lefty Amir Garrett is probably the guy I like best on this staff, but he is penciled into a relief role so his fantasy value will be limited. This pen figures to get a lot of work.

Recapping the Reds:

The arm to own: Alex Wood, but don't go out of your way
He's not for me: Anthony DeSclafani
Best of the bullpen: Raisel Iglesias

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers are hoping to have their best starting pitcher, Jimmy Nelson, back after he missed the 2018 season with a shoulder injury he actually incurred running the bases. He has some upside, however, given the time off, the team may be understandably cautious. And, now for one of the biggest surprises of last season. Jhoulys Chacin found a changeup and translated it into a big year. He still has just average stuff, and his BABIP is not sustainable, so expect some regression. Next is Chase Anderson, who followed up a strong 2017 with a mediocre season last year. I do expect a bit better, but he's still not a big strikeout pitcher, so don't get carried away on draft day. Corbin Burnes is my guy to watch on this staff. He's a genuine arm who spent the second half of 2018 learning the ropes in the bullpen. He's not going to be an ace, but in some leagues he could be a bargain. Veteran soft-tosser Zach Davies, and likely either Freddy Peralta or Brandon Woodruff will handle the final spot. Davies is one of those guys who helps his actual team more than he helps a fantasy staff. I'm going to pass on both him and Peralta. Woodruff, however, has the most upside of the these starting options, and I think he could be worth a buck later in drafts.

The Brewers bullpen was a real roller coaster ride last year. Presumptive closer Corey Knebel was a beast, then the wheels came off and he lost his job, before returning to the role late. Southpaw Josh Hader was superman early, but then was miscast as Knebel's fill-in. The team will hope Knebel keeps things rolling, and Hader can do his thing as his top set-up guy, although they will use him whenever the game is on the line. I love Hader's stuff in the bullpen. Jeremy Jeffress, the actual caddy for Knebel now, Jacob Barnes and Matt Albers will also provide a useful bridge to the late innings

Recapping the Brewers:

The arm to own: Corbin Burnes
He's not for me: Jhoulys Chacin
Best of the bullpen: Corey Knebel

Pittsburgh Pirates – You might be noticing a trend here; a couple of solid starters on each staff, followed by several yawners. I suppose the Pirates somewhat fit into that pattern, but they also have a shiny new "ace" leading the way. Jameson Taillon has been a favorite of mine since he turned pro and that certainly hasn't changed. He has had a seemingly never-ending list of injuries and ailments, including Tommy John surgery and treatment for testicular cancer. He finally enjoyed a full season and he responded with a huge 2018. I expect the show to go on and on. After Taillon, the seas get a little choppy. They added Chris Archer, a big talent, with a frustrating habit of underperforming. I waited a long time for him to realize his potential, but I think it's time to jump ship. I was really impressed by Trevor Williams last year. He has average – that's generous – stuff, but he spots his pitches and mixes it up, keeping hitters off balance. I wouldn't mind owning him, but I fear the price might be unrealistically high. Now we venture into the fringier guys like Joe Musgrove, Jordan Lyles and perhaps Steven Brault, who will all hope to take a regular turn in the rotation. Musgrove has a live arm when healthy, but I still don't think his secondary offerings are well-suited to starting. Lyles shows occasional stretches of competence, but those are too few, and too far, in between, and Brault is a versatile swingman, but he, or perhaps Nick Kingham, could steal the last rotation spot from Lyles. I think I would prefer to wait for the arrival of Mitch Keller. He's probably not quite ready, but perhaps late summer.

Felipe Vazquez has established himself as a viable closer. He'll again get the bulk of the save chances, but the Pirates also added a nice arm with closing experience at the trade deadline last year. Keone Kela is Rivero's insurance policy and serves as a very capable set-up guy. They also have a decent support group including Michael Feliz and Kyle Crick (when they throw strikes), plus Dovydas Neverauskas. He has the arm if he develops a bit better feel. It's possible we could even see lefty Francisco Liriano, who returns to the scene of his best years in the game.

Recapping the Pirates:

The arm to own: Jameson Taillon
He's not for me: Joe Musgrove
Best of the bullpen: Felipe Vazquez

St. Louis Cardinals – I have to admit, I could have devoted this whole article to the the Cardinals' rotation. Top to bottom, I consider it one of the most intriguing in baseball. Carlos Martinez is arguably the staff leader and he deserves that recognition, but he is also dealing with shoulder issues, and we know the concerns that will raise. So, let's check in on two very fantasy appealing arms. Miles Mikolas: I saw some glimpses of potential in him, despite his lackluster numbers, a few years ago before he left to pitch three years for the Yomiuri Giants in Japan. He enjoyed considerable success there and then carried that success over when he came to St. Louis. And I think the best is yet to come. His strikeout rate is inching up and when just a bit higher, he could sneak into the top tier. Right behind him – at least temporarily – is Jack Flaherty. His raw stuff is a little better than that of Mikolas, but he's still learning. For me, Mikolas is on every roster, and I wish I could say the same for Flaherty, Next on the agenda would be Michael Wacha who has pitched reasonably well for much of his career but has endured some bad luck, a few minor injuries and never seems to get a full workload (he hasn't exceeded 181 innings in a season). Again, he teased us with a stretch of about six weeks where he was almost untouchable, but then he suffered an oblique injury, ending the fairytale. I like Wacha when he's healthy, but his history demands a large discount on draft day The fifth starter is likely to be a true veteran mentor for the younger guys. Adam Wainwright does not have the toolbox he once had, but he is a master and is making the right adjustments, so don't totally overlook him. You may have noticed I haven't even mentioned Alex Reyes – still one of the top pitching prospects (take note dynasty owners) but who enters the season amidst a circle of question marks. Because of injuries, he's pitched a total of four innings over two years. Even if healthy, he won't be able to handle a normal workload. The Cardinals hope starting is in his future, but for this season, maybe the bullpen makes sense. Just a thought: He has closer stuff. Hmmm. Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon will probably see starts given the potential health of some of the primary rotation arms.

The Cardinals have a talented bullpen, albeit with some role designations yet to be determined. That became even more apparent when they added Andrew Miller. Miller is the rare pitcher who can literally fill almost any assignment. He can pitch early, give you multiple innings and, if needed, he can close. From a fantasy perspective, his ratio, ERA, strikeouts and any wins or saves collected are useful for a team. The Cardinals would like fireballing Jordan Hicks to finish games, but he needs more consistent secondary pitches so hitters can't sit on his fastball. And, don't forget the possibility of Reyes getting into the late-inning mix. There's also a capable array of support arms including Dominic Leone, Dakota Hudson, Luke Gregerson and lefty Brett Cecil.

Recapping the Cardinals:

The arm to own: Miles Mikolas or Jack Flaherty. Flip a coin.
He's not for me: Carlos Martinez, but only because of the injury concerns
Best of the bullpen: Andrew Miller

Next week we'll look at the AL Central.