Tyler Chatwood

Chatwood has been all over the place in recent years. For a while, people wondered what could happen if he could just get out of Coors Field and pitch in a normal environment. His 2018 with the Cubs did not answer that question as Chatwood lost all semblance of control and walked more batters than he struck out in just over 100 innings of work. Chicago decided to make him a swingman in 2019, and while the walks came down, not much else really changed. In 2020, he only made five starts, but looked like a different guy, ramping up the cutter, curve and sinker en route to a career-best strikeout rate. The walks were still ever-present -- five consecutive seasons with a double-digit walk rate -- but the results were intriguing. If the forearm issue which prematurely ended his season is a thing of the past, he could end up playing a significant role for Toronto.

After starting 20 games during the 2018 season, Chatwood was moved to a bullpen role in 2019, primarily due to his command and control issues. His numbers improved in relief, as he posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with a 74:37 K:BB over 76.2 innings, and he was available to make five spot starts when needed. He registered three holds and two saves (two blown saves). Chatwood's stuff played up to a significant degree in relief, with his average fastball going from 93.1 mph to 95.9 mph, but that did not lead to huge spikes in his strikeout and whiff rates, both of which remained underwhelming in context with the rest of the league. Considering the success he had in 2019, and the improved control in relief, the Cubs figure to keep him in the bullpen, and it's not completely out of the question he could close if Craig Kimbrel implodes. In the middle innings, Chatwood is merely a $1 NL-only filler.

Expectations were generally high for Chatwood heading into 2018. Many people saw his road numbers as a Rockie and figured he'd become a solid starter once he left Colorado. The Cubs agreed and paid up for his services and were then stuck with his completely underwhelming performance. His control issues worsened in Chicago, and he wound up walking more batters (95) than he struck out (85) in 103.2 innings to go with his awful 5.30 ERA. Most of this damage was done by left-handed hitters, who teed off to the tune of a .316 batting average. Right-handed batters, on the other hand, mustered just a .150 batting average off him. Chatwood was moved to the bullpen following the acquisition of Cole Hamels, and it doesn't appear that a spot in the rotation will be open for him in 2019, at least not to begin the season.

Chatwood's stock is on the rise now that he's finally out of Colorado, having joined the Cubs on a three-year, $38 million deal. The results at home over the past two seasons have been ugly, with Chatwood posting ERAs north of 6.00 at Coors Field in both 2016 and 2017, but his road splits hint at solid, back-of-the-rotation potential. He had a 1.69 ERA on the road in 2016 (80 innings), and he followed that up with a 3.49 mark in 2017. Perhaps he wasn't as good as that latter number would suggest, as Chatwood benefited from a .217 BABIP on the road -- especially low for a groundball pitcher (58.1 percent groundball rate last season). He also saw a significant uptick in walks year-over-year (4.7 BB/9), and a low-50s first-pitch strike percentage will limit his command, but the team context is now favorable and more faith in the changeup could help him neutralize lefty batters.

Chatwood was the leader of the Rockies' rotation, although his season was a tale of two halves. The right-hander came out of the gate hot, posting an excellent 2.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through his first 13 starts. Unfortunately, the good times ended as he injured his oblique in a mid-June start and mostly struggled thereafter. From July through the end of the season, Chatwood held an ERA just south of 5.00, walked over five batters per nine innings, and posted a 1.1 HR/9. His season home/road splits were night-and-day, as he sparkled on the road to the tune of a 1.69 ERA and an 8-1 record, but he was tagged at home for 11 home runs which led to an unsightly 6.12 ERA. It's tough to deny how good Chatwood is when he's locked in (and when he's away from Coors Field), but between the two Tommy John surgeries on his record and poor home numbers, there's enough downside here to push him to the endgame in mixed leagues.

Chatwood was sidelined all year while recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. His only pitching appearances of the season came at Low-A Asheville and High-A Modesto, where he allowed one earned run and struck out five over four total innings. The road to back to the major leagues from Tommy John surgery is tough, especially the second time around, but Chatwood is only 26 years old, so there is a decent chance that he could return close to his previous form. Depending on how he well he recovers over the offseason, Chatwood has a chance at competing for a rotation spot with the Rockies if he can emulate his breakout 2013 campaign, in which he posted a 3.15 ERA.

During a season in which a number of Rockies pitchers suffered long-term injuries, no loss was more significant than Chatwood. After a splendid age-23 season in 2013 in which he generated groundballs at a 58.5% clip and allowed only five home runs over 111.1 innings, Chatwood appeared on the cusp of becoming a fixture in the Colorado rotation for years to come. Those hopes were put in serious peril in July, when it was revealed the right-hander, who had been sidelined since late April with a flexor tendon strain of his elbow, would require Tommy John surgery and likely miss the entire 2015 season. Though it’s not uncommon for pitchers to eventually regain their pre-surgery effectiveness over time, the track record is bleaker for those who have had two such procedures like Chatwood, who first underwent the surgery during high school. The 25-year-old Chatwood still has youth on his side, but it wouldn’t be surprising if 2013 ends up going down as the peak season of his career.

Chatwood took the step forward last season that the Rockies desperately needed from one of their young hurlers, as the 24-year-old rode a 58.5 percent groundball rate to a 3.15 ERA in his 20 starts. He wore down a little bit down the stretch as hamstring, elbow and thumb injuries started to take their toll, but the Rockies saw enough growth from him to pencil him in as their No. 3 starter for 2014. Although Chatwood looks like a good building block for the Rockies' rotation, he's much less attractive in the fantasy game. In adopting a pitch-to-contact approach last season, Chatwood saw his strikeout rate plummet to 5.3 K/9 and finished with an ugly 1.43 WHIP. Those kind of marks will make it exceedingly difficult for Chatwood to replicate another full season with an ERA in the low 3.00s.

Chatwood boasts a terrific arsenal and a top prospect pedigree, but also issues with commanding the strike zone in the majors and upper minors. The 22-year-old had a few nice moments in his 12 starts with the Rockies, but a lukewarm 41:33 K:BB ultimately proved uninspiring. Chatwood appears to be in need of more refinement in at Triple-A and must combat a strikeout rate that has fallen precipitously as he has climbed to higher levels, but the Rockies' need for starting pitching and long-relief help will give Chatwood the chance to stake his claim to either spot. In either scenario, it is probably best to avoid Chatwood until he proves he can retire major league hitters with consistency.

Chatwood entered 2011 as a top-100 prospect, and while he started 25 major league games and just turned 22 in December, the Angels decided to trade him to the Rockies for Chris Iannetta. While Chatwood spent most of 2011 in the majors, he also posted a 74:71 K:BB ratio in 142 innings. Prior to last season, Chatwood had made just 13 career starts between Double- and Triple-A so it's fair to say that the Angels probably rushed him to the big leagues a full year before he was ready. He'll compete for a rotation spot during spring but will need to show improved control to make the Opening Day roster.

An 8-3 start with High-A Rancho Cucamonga earned Chatwood a midseason promotion to Double-A Arkansas, an impressive rise for a high school pitcher selected just one year earlier. Chatwood, still just 21, throws a mid-90s fastball and a biting curveball. He was able to improve his walk rate last season, but there is still some work to do in that department. Chatwood will likely begin the 2011 season by returning to Arkansas.

Chatwood passed on a hoops scholarship to Indiana after leading Hickory High to the state championship, instead signing with the Angels as a No. 2 pick in 2008. Chatwood throws hard, and even sometimes accurately; he can work on his command, but probably not his height (5-foot-11), making prospectdom an uphill battle.