Cody Reed

Reed looked to be responding well to a critical season in his development, beginning the 2019 campaign by posting a 2.61 ERA (3.14 FIP) and 1.04 WHIP through 20.2 innings with Triple-A Louisville and allowing one run in 6.1 innings with the Reds. Unfortunately, he suffered an MCL sprain during a game against the Pirates in late May and was unable to recover in time to pitch again. That said, Reed's abbreviated season provided some reasons to be optimistic about his future. In his 18 minor-league appearances, he raised his strikeout rate to over a batter per inning and gave up only one home run. Though he struggled some with his command, his 3.56 BB/9 was a fair amount better than the 5.17 BB/9 he posted at the same level two seasons ago. A solid spring training could be enough to earn Reed a spot in the bullpen to begin 2020 as he is out of minor-league options and the Reds may not want to risk losing him.

Reed made incremental progress in 2018, but the Reds are a franchise that desperately needs someone to make the leap. That shouldn't fully be held against Reed, because he made tangible progress in one key category -- conquering his control woes. After walking over five batters per nine innings at Triple-A Louisville and over a batter per inning at the big-league level last season, Reed lowered those rates to 2.7 and 3.1 per nine innings, respectively, all while maintaining his strikeout rate. The big difference for Reed was a change in pitch selection. Last year he threw a four-seamer 50.5% of the time, with a catastrophic 34.3 BB% on that pitch. This past year he lowered that usage to a mere 21%, instead relying more on his sinker (27.1% after using it just twice in 2017) and slider (from 36.6% to 41.0%). The Reds still need to decide whether there's a place for Reed in the rotation.

2017 was a bad year for the fruits of the Johnny Cueto trade. Brandon Finnegan hurt his shoulder and only made four appearances all season. John Lamb had already left the Reds' organization, but he was hurt and then suspended 50 games for his second positive test for a drug of abuse. And finally Reed struggled through a difficult season, getting strafed in his one big-league start by the Cubs, after which he was moved to the bullpen and then to Triple-A Louisville. Reed's major problem is control -- he lacks command of the strike zone, and then falls apart once runners get on base. He had an 18.2 walk percentage with the bases empty last year, which spiked to over 30 percent once at least one runner was on. He had good results with the bases empty -- .139/.295/.194 against 44 batters -- and melted down with runners on, allowing batters to hit .250/.486/.708. There's some hope from the Reds that he'll fare better as a reliever.

Reed entered 2016 as one of Cincinnati's top pitching prospects before making his major league debut in June. The 23-year-old disappointed in 10 starts during his rookie season, posting a 7.36 ERA and 6.06 FIP over 47.2 innings of work, as his vaunted slider was blasted by major league hitters. Although Reed's K/9 and BB/9 rates stayed fairly similar to his 2016 numbers with Triple-A Louisville, he gave up home runs on a much more frequent basis in Cincinnati. His 2.27 HR/9 that was more than triple his mark at Triple-A (0.74). Additionally, his WHIP saw a concerning spike at the major league level. Reed still has the potential to develop into a serviceable mid-rotation starter, but 2016 took off some of the shine. He will compete for a rotation spot in spring training.

Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb garnered more attention as part of the haul in the Johnny Cueto deal, but Reed has already made waves in the Reds' system since the trade. He was a sandwich-round pick in the 2013 draft and initially struggled as a professional, but made big leaps in 2015. After the deal, he went directly to Double-A Pensacola, where in eight starts he struck out 60 batters in 49.2 innings, posting a 2.12 ERA while allowing just one homer. He might start up again in Double-A, but he's among a slew of pitchers coming quickly for the Reds.