This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – A couple years ago, I suggested Yu Darvish might be a Cy Young contender, but injuries derailed that prediction, and he hasn't been fully healthy since. That is until late last season. He struggled through most of the first three months but appeared to settle in from July on. Folks, I'm back on the wagon. If he's healthy all season, he'll be a dominant force. He's a potentially huge reward arm, but recent seasons do suggest there is some risk. The next three – Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and Jose Quintana – are all viable fantasy rotation guys, not aces, but they can be productive pitching in front of that explosive lineup. Hendricks is the best of that group, but soft-tossers can be very vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes or off days. If he gets just slightly out of sync, things can get ugly, but he has proven he can spot his pitches pretty consistently, so he is generally on top of his game. I consider Lester and Quintana to be "what you see is what you get" guys. Both have fairly pedestrian stuff, and their performance puts them at the back of most fantasy rotations. I will say I think Quintana has enough to provide better peripherals, so he could provide a bit more if things go his way. I think my biggest concern would again be the last rotation slot. When they signed Tyler Chatwood
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – A couple years ago, I suggested Yu Darvish might be a Cy Young contender, but injuries derailed that prediction, and he hasn't been fully healthy since. That is until late last season. He struggled through most of the first three months but appeared to settle in from July on. Folks, I'm back on the wagon. If he's healthy all season, he'll be a dominant force. He's a potentially huge reward arm, but recent seasons do suggest there is some risk. The next three – Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and Jose Quintana – are all viable fantasy rotation guys, not aces, but they can be productive pitching in front of that explosive lineup. Hendricks is the best of that group, but soft-tossers can be very vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes or off days. If he gets just slightly out of sync, things can get ugly, but he has proven he can spot his pitches pretty consistently, so he is generally on top of his game. I consider Lester and Quintana to be "what you see is what you get" guys. Both have fairly pedestrian stuff, and their performance puts them at the back of most fantasy rotations. I will say I think Quintana has enough to provide better peripherals, so he could provide a bit more if things go his way. I think my biggest concern would again be the last rotation slot. When they signed Tyler Chatwood, like everyone, I thought he'd like pitching outside Colorado. Wrong. He found that the plate is the same size (too small for him) in Chicago. Unfortunately, his primary competition – Alec Mills, newcomer Jharel Cotton and Adbert Alzolay – don't generate optimism. Cotton did flash a little upside back in 2016 before Tommy John surgery took him down. He's a sleeper.
This is a major area of concern in my eyes: Last June the Cubs spent a lot of money signing premier closer, Craig Kimbrel. Trouble is, he didn't look much like a closer, let alone, premier. He had good velocity but no command. Maybe he'll be back, but I'll have to see it. So who's his caddy? Good question. I have long loved Brandon Morrow. Alas, he has proven to be very fragile over his career. He missed all of last year and likely won't be ready on Opening Day. Even when/if he is ready, I question his ability to hold up under a closer's workload. Maybe Jeremy Jeffress can bounce back. He's fragile, too, just not as fragile as Morrow. Rowan Wick probably stands out as a fairly capable set-up guy, but I don't see a closer's gig in his future. I also like Ryan Tepera as an eighth-inning guy but not a closer. Someone – hopefully Kimbrel – has to step up.
Recapping the Cubs:
The arm to own: Yu Darvish, if healthy, is a true top-of-the-rotation guy.
He'll likely be overpriced: Kyle Hendricks is not bad, but his price is often too high.
Best of the bullpen: I'm steering clear. Maybe a flyer on Jeffress?
Cincinnati Reds – In recent seasons, the Reds have been pretty easy to evaluate. Take a quick look, nothing special to see here, move along. But, that was then. The Reds appear to be contenders now. In fact, they arguably could be slight favorites to win the NL Central, and their pitching is a big part of that. It starts with Luis Castillo who has been a very popular target the past couple years. He has always had a big arm and considerable potential, but last season he showed off the secondary stuff to earn the honor of being a true top-of-the-rotation starter. The rest of the rotation is filled with pitchers who display both positives and negatives, but if the scales tip to the positive side, Cincinnati is going to be a force. Sonny Gray came over from the Yankees last winter, and, when he's healthy and has everything working, he's a legitimate No. 2. He's coming back from some elbow issues, but reports have been good this spring. Trevor Bauer is a genuine wild card. He has teased MLB and fantasy owners for years, and in 2018 it looked like he was about to fulfill all that promise. Then last year he jumped the tracks again, punching his ticket out of Cleveland. Initially things went from bad to worst in Cincinnati. He has ALL the tools, but …. That potentially impressive top three likely will be joined, in some combination, by Anthony DeSclafani, who remains somewhat marginal due to his vulnerability to left-handed hitters — but is showing some progress — journeyman lefty Wade Miley, primarily an innings eater, and Tyler Mahle who can throw strikes with four pitches, but his stuff is just average. They're not awful, but I just can't get very excited about them for a fantasy rotation. Other names to watch would be southpaw Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene. Both are blue-chippers, but neither figures to see the major leagues this season.
The Reds' bullpen lists Raisel Iglesias as the closer. He can also contribute multiple innings, but they need to continue being judicious with his usage. He has established the ability to be an effective end gamer. This is actually a fairly deep pen. Hard throwing Michael Lorenzen and newcomer Pedro Strop will serve as key set-up guys, but lefty Amir Garrett is probably the guy I like best on this staff. He is again penciled into a relief job (that's really his best role), so his fantasy value will be limited.
Recapping the Reds:
The arm to own: Sonny Gray looks poised to take the next step.
He'll likely be overpriced: Wade Miley just doesn't offer much true upside.
Best of the bullpen: Raisel Iglesias has been consistently effective.
Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers appear to be headed in the opposite direction. Virtually all of the Milwaukee pitchers discussed in this column last spring are gone, as the youth movement gains momentum. For the most part, the jury is still out on their young arms, with one notable exception. Brandon Woodruff displayed considerable upside with his well-developed repertoire, then took it to the next level with improved command. He missed a couple months, but a healthy Woodruff could be even better in 2020. Adrian Houser performed pretty well after moving into the rotation last June. He also has some upside, however, his secondary stuff isn't as refined as Woodruff's, so some regression could be in the cards. Next up is the new (and hopefully improved) Josh Lindblom. After four non-descript years in MLB, he has spent most of the last five seasons in Korea. There he remade himself and now features a very diverse selection of quality pitches. I think his repertoire will translate pretty well, potentially making him worthy of a modest draft day investment. Brett Anderson finally enjoyed a relatively injury-free season, but he's not a strikeout pitcher and will always be a health risk, so don't get carried away on draft day. The fifth spot likely comes down to Freddy Peralta (better in the bullpen), Eric Lauer (better when half his starts were in San Diego), and Corbin Burnes (showed a lot of promise, then flopped when given a regular turn). They even have an ongoing reclamation project in Shelby Miller, but he's been a train wreck since 2015. Burnes could be worth a buck, but have a Plan B in place.
Two names come to mind when discussing the Brewers' bullpen. Southpaw Josh Hader has been superman, and will likely start the year as their closer, and Corey Knebel, who has closer tools but will miss the first couple months as he works his way back from 2019 Tommy John surgery. Best-case scenario, Knebel returns in May at full strength, freeing up Hader to serve in his ideal role as a "super reliever," but there are no guarantees. The bridge to Hader (and hopefully Knebel) isn't all that stellar. I like the stuff from Ray Black, but he has to throw strikes, while lefty Alex Claudio, and righties Brent Suter and David Phelps will probably share in set-up duties.
Recapping the Brewers:
The arm to own: Brandon Woodruff, but Lindblom could be worth a flyer.
He'll likely be overpriced: Brett Anderson helps the Brewers more than a fantasy team.
Best of the bullpen: Josh Hader, but Knebel could be a necessary handcuff.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates didn't have a lot of proven depth in their rotation, and they again face the coming season without their top arm, Jameson Taillon, who has been a favorite of mine since he turned pro. He has had a seemingly never-ending list of injuries and ailments, including the current (second) Tommy John surgery. Without Taillon, the rotation gets sketchy. Joe Musgrove would appear to be the guy on whom they will count to lead the way, and he does have some upside. Reports are he expects to throw more off-speed stuff this year. That will be necessary to keep hitters off balance, and only time will tell if the plan will increase the value of his stock. In 2018, they added Chris Archer, a big talent with a frustrating habit of underperforming. Archer is an enigma. Now, at age 31, no one has been able to unlock his skill set. One has to wonder if he will ever realize his potential. The Pirates have to hope Mitch Keller isn't a younger version of Archer. He has a big arm and impressive minor league credentials, but his performance with the big club has been disastrous. I'm inclined to give him a little time to get it all together. I was really impressed by Trevor Williams in 2018. He has average – that's generous – stuff, but he spotted his pitches and mixed things up, keeping hitters off balance. The mediocre stuff caught up with him in 2019, and I fear that even though this season could be better, he is unlikely to be a significant fantasy asset. Now we delve into even fringier guys like Steven Brault, veteran lefty Derek Holland and Chad Kuhl, who missed all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Can Holland find another stretch of quality innings? Maybe, but I think that may be wishful dreaming.
The Pirates' bullpen resembles the starting rotation in many ways. Keone Kela is the closer, and he has the tools to do an adequate job but he also carries a long history of health issues and inconsistency. They also have a decent but unspectacular support group including Richard Rodriguez, who might be next in line for saves if Kela gets hurt or needs a day off, Edgar Santana, plus Michael Feliz and Kyle Crick (when they throw strikes). One final consideration would be Nick Burdi. He has just 10 innings of MLB experience – with injuries playing a role in that – but he also has 19 punch outs in those 10 frames. Perhaps of interest if he learns to throw strikes.
Recapping the Pirates:
The arm to own: Mitch Keller is very risky but he has the highest ceiling.
He'll likely be overpriced: To be honest, I wouldn't want to rely on anyone here.
Best of the bullpen: Keone Kela, and just hope everything goes as planned.
St. Louis Cardinals – We'll wrap up our analysis of the NL Central with a look at the always intriguing Cardinals. There are countless things I look at when evaluating pitchers: statistical data, eyes-on observations, the defense behind them, etc., etc. But one factor that's a little more challenging to measure is an atmosphere of winning, and I will say this organization is near the top of the list. Let's start with Jack Flaherty. His raw stuff is already dominating, but he's still learning. The second half he put together last season was one for the ages, and I think the best is still to come. Now, let's check in on two quality arms who define that winning approach. Miles Mikolas showed some glimpses of potential, despite his lackluster numbers, a few years ago before he left to pitch three years for the Yomiuri Giants in Japan. He enjoyed considerable success there and then carried that success over when he came to St. Louis. He suffered some bad luck, and his command wasn't as sharp as expected last year but his strikeout rate is inching up, and I expect a bounce-back season. The senior statesman at age 38 is Adam Wainwright. He doesn't have the toolbox he once had but he's a master of the arts – both pitching and winning – and he's making the right adjustments, so don't overlook him. The four spot likely goes to Dakota Hudson, and I don't quite know what to do with him. His stuff is good, not great, he appears vulnerable to lefty hitters, and his command can be spotty, yet he won 16 games in 2019. Winning is what it's all about in St. Louis, but I think I'll wait and see on him. The five spot could be a spring-long experiment. Carlos Martinez has the raw talent to be right up there with Flaherty, but he may yet spend all or most of the year serving as the team's interim closer. Starting is definitely his future path, but it might be 2021. I think the best option for the fifth spot could be South Korean import Kwang-Hyun Kim. You may have noticed I haven't even mentioned Alex Reyes – still a top pitching prospect (take note dynasty owners) – he again enters the season amidst question marks. Because of injuries, he's pitched a total of 70 innings over three years, and his performance has been disappointing. Even if healthy, he won't be able to handle a normal workload. The Cardinals hope starting is in his future, but, for this season, maybe the bullpen makes sense. Ryan Helsley and Daniel Ponce de Leon will also probably see occasional starts given the potential health concerns of some of the primary rotation arms.
I don't think the question is who will close for the Cardinals long term. I'm reasonably certain that gig will belong to Jordan Hicks, but he's working his way back from Tommy John surgery and won't be available until at least midseason. So who closes until then? Clearly there are some role designations yet to be determined. Carlos Martinez stepped in last year and performed well, but he (and the Cardinals) want him in the rotation at some point. If that happens right away, maybe Andrew Miller and Giovanny Gallegos share the duties for the interim. And, don't forget the possibility of Reyes getting into the late-inning mix. There's also a capable array of support arms including John Brebbia, John Gant, and lefty Brett Cecil. This one will require some monitoring.
Recapping the Cardinals:
The arm to own: Jack Flaherty certainly won't be cheap but he'll be worth it.
He'll likely be overpriced: Dakota Hudson is unlikely to repeat his 2019 success.
Best of the bullpen: My "guess" is Carlos Martinez until Hicks gets back.
Next week we'll look at the AL Central.
