Farm Futures: Rookie Pitcher Targets

These targets are for 2025 leagues, particularly draft and hold formats like the NFBC Draft Champions contest, which is 15 teams and 50 rounds (750 players drafted). I covered many of these pitchers (and a bunch of outfield prospects) on last week's Prospect Podcast:

Zebby Matthews (MIN) and Drew Thorpe (CHW) are under 50 MLB innings but have logged over 45 days on active MLB rosters, so they don't show up on the top 400 prospect rankings, but given how few quality prospects there are for 2025, I wanted to include them. I used the same criteria for last week's Rookie Outfielder Rankings and for the Rookie Infielder Rankings that will be out next week.

Roki Sasaki's actual Draft Champions ADP is 250.3, but I went with his ADP in all drafts since the news he was being posted, which is 77.1. The one share I got was in the 17th round of the Too Early Meatball Draft, before there was a strong consensus about him getting posted this year. This will probably be my last share of the year, just given where the price is and the fact he lost fastball velocity and his command backed up a little last year.

I have shares of Jack Leiter (TEX) and Quinn Mathews (STL), but I don't consider either pitcher to be targets at ADP -- Leiter fell ~150 picks past ADP and Mathews fell ~130 picks past ADP when I grabbed them in NFBC 50s early in the offseason. I also have a share of Jackson Jobe (DET), a couple shares of Will Warren (NYY) and a share of Yilber Diaz (ARI), but I don't consider them targets (or avoids) moving forward after going through more prep, although earlier in the offseason I was more interested (I got Jobe at pick 247 in an NFBC 50, so it was still past ADP).

ROOKIE STARTERS

TARGETS

Bubba Chandler, PIT

DC Rounds: 16-22

Chandler checks every box I'm looking for in a redraft pitching prospect, except for pitching for a good team. He got fully built up last season and could push for 160 MLB innings this year with great health. I expect him to win a rotation spot this spring, and I view him as a target in all NFBC formats, including Gladiators.

Sean Burke, CHW

DC Rounds: 23-29

Burke looked like a top-50 prospect over his September cup of coffee. Prior to getting the call he was walking too many batters at Triple-A (13.0 BB%) while missing plenty of bats (31.0 K%). I buy the theory that something clicked for him once he was around the big-league coaches and players, but the sample of him throwing enough strikes is small and he'll be pitching for a very bad team. Burke threw a career-high 108 innings in 2022 but shoulder issues limited him to 108.1 combined innings between 2023 and 2024.

Michael McGreevy, STL

DC Rounds: 26-32

McGreevy threw 153 innings in 2023 and 173 innings last year, so he's as built up as any modern pitching prospect can be. His MLB sample last year was pristine, logging a 62.5 percent groundball rate, a 2.3 percent walk rate and a 0.78 WHIP in 23 innings over four appearances. His stuff obviously isn't amazing, particularly from a velocity or strikeout standpoint (93.1 mph fastball, 20.9 K%), but he has a plus slider and at least plus command. The secret is out, to some extent, so you can't trust the ADP, but he screams value to me in the 450-500 pick range of Draft Champions or as the last starter I take in a 30-round FAAB league.

Thomas Harrington, PIT

DC Rounds: 35-40

Harrington hasn't built up his innings quite like McGreevy has (Harrington threw 127.1 innings in 2023 and 117.1 innings in 2024), but he has similar strengths (at least plus command, good slider, deep repertoire) and weaknesses (92-93 mph fastball velocity). He is also young enough (turns 24 in July) that it wouldn't be surprising if he threw harder than ever in 2025, so there's a path to him being even better than expected. Harrington probably won't win a job in spring training like Chandler could and like Jared Jones did in 2024, but he should be the first prospect to get the call when a need arises.

Logan Evans, SEA

DC Rounds: 43-47

Two important factors working in Evans' favor: Emerson Hancock is bad (career 7.3 K-BB%) and Seattle is a great place to pitch. Evans isn't the same caliber of Mariners pitching prospect as Logan Gilbert, George Kirby or Bryce Miller were, but he's closer to a Miller than he is to a Hancock. The Mariners transitioned him to relief in the middle of the season to manage his innings and then he started again down the stretch, but his best work was as a starter over the first couple months last year before the role change. Evans is one to watch in the spring, as he is Seattle's sixth best starter from a talent standpoint, so it will be interesting to see if he looks ready, should one of the five starters ahead of him go down with an injury early in the year.

Honorable Mention: Joey Cantillo (CLE), Brant Hurter (DET), Richard Fitts (BOS), Mike Burrows (PIT), Justin Wrobleski (LAD), Ben Casparius (LAD), Parker Messick (CLE)

ENDGAME OPTIONS

Ian Seymour, TB

Sawyer Gipson-Long, DET

Noah Cameron, KC

Andrew Morris, MIN

Yoniel Curet, TB

Alejandro Rosario, TEX

Adam Mazur, MIA

Curet, Rosario and Mazur are the only safe bets to be available with your final couple picks of a Draft Champions, but there's a chance that one or two of Seymour, Gipson-Long, Cameron or Morris is available at the end of the draft too.

Gipson-Long showed well in a small sample in the majors in 2023 and had Tommy John surgery in late-April 2024 and then a hip procedure in early-July. He started a throwing program at the end of the regular season and could be fully recovered around the end of the first half. A new development for me over the past couple years: I don't mind rostering a couple pitchers in a draft and hold who have a chance to return from surgeries around June, because I know I'll have injured pitchers who need to be replaced in the middle of the summer.

Seymour, Morris and Cameron are essentially big-league ready rotation options and will just be waiting for their number to be called. I ranked them Morris, Seymour, Cameron on the last top 400 prospect rankings update, but they're pretty close from a talent standpoint, and Cameron and Morris probably have a shorter list of big-league starters to jump over in Kansas City and Minnesota, respectively, than Seymour does in Tampa Bay.

Curet is on the 40-man roster but only made five starts at Double-A and the Rays have a lot of starting pitching depth. Rosario hasn't even pitched at Double-A yet, but he's a premium pitching prospect who has been upping his stock steadily for the past year. He turns 23 this offseason, so I could see a scenario where the Rangers just let him go as far as his talent takes him this year.

Mazur was a disaster in the majors with the Padres last year, but he showed signs of righting the ship at Triple-A after the Padres traded him to Miami, and I liked Mazur a lot (too much) prior to his horrible debut. I haven't needed to dip that far on my board yet in a Draft Champions, but I essentially think he's the best starting pitcher who hasn't been taken yet in any DCs.

AVOIDS

Cade Horton, CHC

DC Rounds: 33-39

Tink Hence, STL

DC Rounds: 38-43

Horton and Hence are avoids for me based off perceived injury risk. Horton dealt with shoulder issues for most of 2024 and his 88.1 innings in 2023 now look like his workhorse year, as he barely pitched in college due to injuries. We found out earlier this month that he hadn't even been cleared for a throwing program yet. Hence just hasn't been able to handle a starter's workload over a full season without his arm barking. If we were drafting players based on how likely it is they get Tommy John surgery in 2025, Hence would be a great pick, and he does have great stuff when he's at his best, but you can get real pieces in the 38-43 round range, so I don't have any interest in taking such a gamble there.

I'll add briefly that there's no justification for Ricky Tiedemann (TOR) to have been selected already in 16 of 21 Draft Champions -- he had Tommy John surgery at the end of July -- and obviously the one time River Ryan (LAD) was taken was a mistake too (TJS at the end of August).

ROOKIE RELIEVERS

If you roster Emiliano Teodo (TEX) or George Klassen (LAA) in dynasty leagues, you may be holding out hope that they make it as starting pitchers, but for 2025, I think it's highly unlikely either guy gets a legitimate look as a big-league starter barring massive command improvements over the offseason, so I included them with the relievers. There were some other close calls, like Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), Mike Burrows (PIT), Clayton Beeter (NYY), Ty Madden (DET) and Miguel Ullola (HOU) where I listed them with the starting pitchers, even though it might be more likely that they get more work out of the bullpen in 2025 than in the rotation.

TARGETS

Seth Halvorsen, COL

DC Rounds: 23-33

I got my two Halvorsen shares in the 35th round and the 36th round of a couple early Draft Champions, but he's been going in the 23-33 round range in recent drafts. He even went in the 315-350 range in a few drafts this month, while also lasting until pick 493 in a Nov. 20 draft, so Halvorsen's range is as wide as any prospect covered in this article. He has monster stuff (116 Stuff+, 100.1 mph average fastball) and minimal pedigree ($200K bonus in the 7th round in 2023).

Mason Montgomery, TB

DC Rounds: 36-41

I got my Montgomery shares in the 48th round of an early Draft Champions and in the 49th round of an early NFBC 50 (12-team draft and hold), but the price has understandably gone up. He was converted to a relief role last summer after things didn't work out as a starter, and he popped in a massive way on the Stuff leaderboards in his small big-league sample. We know the Rays will spread the saves around, and Montgomery could be a great strikeout and ratio option who bags 5-15 saves as a rookie.

ENDGAME OPTIONS

Zach Maxwell, CIN

Edgardo Henriquez, LAD

Jaden Hill, COL

Maxwell would be a smash about 10 rounds higher than he's going if his control was better. His stuff is clearly ninth-inning caliber and he saved five games after getting promoted to Triple-A last year, but Maxwell's walk rate has been between 15.5 percent and 16.2 percent in the upper levels. Taking Maxwell is as much a bet against Alexis Diaz as it is in favor of Maxwell.

Henriquez is a stuff monster who could spend the whole year in the Dodgers' bullpen. He's not the greatest bet for saves as a rookie, but he is a good shot to take if you're looking for a ratio/strikeout reliever in the final rounds.

I like grabbing Hill even if you've already got Halvorsen, just because they do seem like the two most talented arms in that bullpen. Hill has much more pedigree (second-round pick in 2021) and is slightly better at generating groundballs, although they're both great at that, while Halvorsen has a better fastball (100 mph vs. 97 mph) and had more saves last year, including the only two big-league saves of the duo.

AVOIDS

Ben Joyce, LAA

DC Rounds: 10-14

Joyce, who has averaged just under 39 innings per season since 2022 (including college), should pay off this price if he's healthy for 80 percent of the season, but the human body isn't meant to throw as hard as he throws (102.4 mph average fastball), and I've got him lumped with guys like Pete Fairbanks and Jhoan Duran, where they've obviously got good skills and are bad bets to get 30-plus saves due to usage or durability. I don't draft those relievers once they're treated like the sure closer, just because I don't like using high picks on relievers who don't project for 30-plus saves.